Colorado remade its catcher position Wednesday night with a tandem of moves. The first, as analyzed by Chris Cwik, sent Chris Iannetta to the Angels for starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood. The Rockies will replace Iannetta at backstop with the second move, the signing of Ramon Hernandez to a two-year, $6.5 million contract.
Chris Iannetta is finally free. After employing the worst starting catcher in baseball last season (min 250 plate appearances), the Los Angeles Angels decided to seek out an upgrade. Despite some success in the majors, Iannetta never endeared himself to the Colorado Rockies’ front office. After seasons of speculation, the Rockies finally gave up on the 28-year-old catcher, trading him to the Los Angeles Angels for Tyler Chatwood. With the full backing of his new organization, will Iannetta make the Rockies look foolish?
Despite the prestige of being 2011’s Most Average Player, Colorado Rockies outfielder Seth Smith has been the subject of trade rumors since the end of the season. Trading Smith might be a good idea for the Rockies if it enables them to fill a hole elsewhere, but Smith himself is better than one might think. He is not a great fielder, although it he is not horrible (the Rockies gave Brad Hawpe more than 6000 innings in the outfield, after all). What seems to bother many people is the large platoon split that the left-handed-hitting Smith has shown in his major-league career. However, Smith’s splits are at least as much of a potential opportunity as they are an impending crisis. It is, as a wise man might say, a crisitunity.
The Colorado Rockies have been active in the hot stove league although they have yet to make a trade or sign a free agent. They have holes to fill, particularly at second base, having lost Mark Ellis to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and on the mound. The Rockies made a run at Jamey Carroll — who played at Coors Field in 2006 and 2007 — to fill the hole at second but Carroll signed with the Minnesota Twins to play shortstop.
Reports out of Denver have the Rockies aggressively pursuing a trade for Martin Prado of the Atlanta Braves to be their everyday second baseman. So far, the Rockies have offered outfielder Seth Smith for Prado but the Braves apparently want more. Two names floated to be included in a Prado-to-Rockies deal are rookie outfielder Charlie Blackmon or minor league outfielder Tim Wheeler but the Rockies have said no, so far. The Rockies are also one of eight teams who’ve expressed interest in former Cleveland Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore. The Rockies would move Sizemore to left field, to make it easier on his oft-injured knees. Although reports have not been specific on this, I assume a Sizemore-to-left move would then shift Gold Glove outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to right.
Through all of these rumors, the Rockies have made it clear that center fielder Dexter Fowler is off-limits. Not available. Ring a different doorbell. Why? Why would the Rockies refuse to trade Fowler if it meant getting Prado or another necessary piece?
I don’t know why.
On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:
The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?
Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:
By now most baseball fans realize that the majority of bunts decrease the bunting team’s run-scoring. However, we also know that bunting also makes sense in some situations, even for non-pitchers who can hit a little bit. It makes sense from the standpoint of game theory (keeping the fielders honest), can increase run expectancy in some situations, and in some situations in close games, it is better to play for just one run. As I did after last season, I would like to look at the three most successful bunts of the 2011 regular season as measured by Win Probability Added (WPA).
MLB’s Awards Week, with all of its attendant celebrations and arguments, is in full swing. It is also a good time to see just how bad the worst players in the league were. But, as always, the players in the middle get left out. Why not celebrate them, as well? Like my elementary school counselor used say: “everyone is special.” Who were 2011’s most average players?
Well, actually I have no idea if Carlos Gonzalez loves the mountains or if Chase Headley hates the beach, but if my home/road splits looked like their’s, I would certainly start to appreciate/blame the topography.
Many have pointed out how dramatic a split young Carlos Gonzalez possess — at home in Colorado, he’s an elite swing sultan; away from where the beer flows like wins, he is a pedestrian, league-average bat-swinger. Yeah, we get it. Everyone knows, right?
Well, the split is perhaps more dramatic than initially anticipated. Looking at players in the last decade (from 2001 through 2011) with a minimum of 500 home and 500 away PAs, we see CarGo has hit a wRC+ 74 points higher at home than away — more than anyone else in the period:
In other words, no one compares to Carlos Gonzalez… Okay, well, actually one guy does.
And it makes a world of difference.
Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!
In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.
For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:
Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)
The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.
Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.
What would it take for a pitcher to win the National League MVP award?
Really there are two questions here: What would it take for voters to vote a starter into the award? And what would it take for a pitcher to be worth more than a position player?
First, a bit of history. Twenty-one pitchers have won the award since 1911, meaning it happens about once every 10 years. The last time it happened for a starter was 1986, when Roger Clemens won the award with a 24-4 record and 238 strike outs. Those benchmarks won’t be hit this year, but is it possible that some of the conditions will be met? Could Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw find themselves with two pieces of mega-hardware after the season?
