A mid-90’s fastball. A biting, mid-80’s slider. A sturdy 6-3, 210 pound frame. Since his days as a prized Dodgers prospect, Edwin Jackson has been touted as a potential ace. However, Baseball America’s number four prospect prior to the 2004 season wore out his welcome in L.A. and wallowed in mediocrity as a Tampa Bay Ray.

Shipped to the Tigers in December of 2008, Jackson finally began to break through with a 3.5 WAR season in 2009. He joined his fourth organization this past winter as part of “The Big Trade,” with Jackson and Ian Kennedy going to the Diamondbacks, Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke Detroit-bound and Curtis Granderson headed to the Bronx.

While a healthy, resurgent Kennedy is producing, Jackson’s 2010 season seemingly conjures up memories of his vexing Dodgers and Rays days. After surrendering five runs and getting taken deep twice in 7.2 innings pitched against the Blue Jays on Saturday, the 26-year-old righty owns a 6.28 ERA over his first ten starts. Jackson acquired the “underachiever” label over the years, with his results often falling short of his stuff. But beneath that ugly ERA, he has basically been the same guy who held his own in Detroit last year.

In 61.2 innings, Jackson has struck out 7.74 batters per nine innings, nearly a whiff per nine higher than his 2009 mark (6.77 K/9). He has issued 2.92 BB/9, almost identical to his walk rate with the Tigers (2.94 BB/9). And, after posting a 39.1 percent ground ball rate in ’09, Jackson has induced a grounder 47.3 percent of the time in 2010.

Jackson got a swinging strike 9.8 percent of the time as a Tiger, with a 79.2 percent contact rate. As a D-Back, he has garnered swinging strikes 11 percent and has a 76.1 percent contact rate (the MLB averages are roughly 8.5 percent and 81 percent, respectively). He’s also getting ahead in the count or inducing first pitch contact more, with his first pitch strike percentage rising from 54.5 percent in 2009 to 57.5 percent this season (58 percent MLB average).

Some of these “improvements” are due to Jackson’s switch from the American League to the National League. Derek Carty over at The Hardball Times conducted a study of pitchers switching leagues between 2004-2008 and found that AL pitchers going to the NL improved their K/9 by +0.57, decreased their BB/9 by -0.05 and lowered their RA/9 by -0.42. That helps explain the increase in Jackson’s K rate, swinging strikes and first pitch strikes, as well as his lowered contact rate. At worst, though, we could say he’s pitching as well as in 2009 and perhaps a bit better.

Sadly, that good work has been obscured by a bad luck trifecta of a lower-than-usual rate of stranding base runners, a high batting average on balls in play and an inflated home run per fly ball rate.

His LOB rate of 63.3 percent is well below his career 70.9 mark. Jackson has a .332 BABIP this year, compared to a .311 career average. He’s keeping the ball on the ground more, and grounders do have a higher BABIP than fly balls. It’s also true that Arizona’s infielders aren’t known as defensive wizards: 3B Mark Reynolds (career -7.6 UZR/150), SS Stephen Drew (-9), 2B Kelly Johnson (-5.3) and 1B Adam LaRoche (-3.4) all rate poorly by Ultimate Zone Rating. Even so, balls in play probably won’t continue to elude leather quite so often.

It’s also highly unlikely that Jackson continues to serve up so many homers. When hitters loft the ball, it’s leaving the park 16.4 percent of the time. Jackson’s career HR/FB rate is 10.2 percent, and the MLB average is about 11 percent.

Chase Field has a four-year HR/FB park factor of 106, meaning that closer to 12 percent of fly balls leave the yard in Arizona (taking the Chase HR/FB factor and multiplying it by the rate at which fly balls become home runs, 11 percent). So far, Jackson has been taken deep on eight of his 41 fly balls at home (19.5 HR/FB percentage). If Jackson had a 12 HR/FB percentage at Chase, he would have surrendered three less dingers–five, instead of eight. On the road, Jackson has given up a homer on two of his 20 fly balls (10 HR/FB%, close to the MLB average). While Jackson has served up 1.46 HR/9, that number “should” be about one per nine innings pitched.

While Jackson’s ERA might have Diamondbacks fans ready to label him a bust, he’s pitching as well as he ever has in the majors. His xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run/fly ball rate, is 3.87. That ranks in the top 20 among NL starters tossing at least 50 innings. Jackson’s no ace, but he still looks like a solid starter after frustrating talent evaluators for years.

Last night, New York Mets starter John Maine toed the rubber at Nationals Park. Washington leadoff hitter Nyjer Morgan stepped into the box. Maine tossed an 85 MPH fastball high. Ball one. An 83 MPH offering with a little more tail missed on the outside corner. Ball two. Morgan squared to bunt on a fastball inside at 85, but thought better of it and pulled back. Ball three. Morgan showed bunt on another 85 MPH fastball but let it go by for a strike. Yet another 85 MPH fastball missed inside, and Morgan scampered to first base.

Maine slumped forward, hands on his knees, as Mets manager Jerry Manuel, pitching coach Dan Warthen and trainer Ray Ramirez walked to the mound. Manuel signaled for the lefty, Raul Valdes. And just like that, Maine’s night was over.

According to ESPNNewYork’s Adam Rubin, Manuel said after the game that he was “trying to protect his [Maine’s] best interests,” and he doesn’t “want to be responsible for a young man’s career.” Warthen said, “John’s a habitual liar in a lot of ways as far as his own health. He’s a competitor and a warrior and he wants to go out there and pitch. But you have to be smart enough to realize this guy isn’t right.” Maine, meanwhile, was peeved: “Look, I’ve felt pain for two years, but I’m over that…I don’t care about that. I’m well enough to pitch. I wanted to pitch. That’s the bottom line.”

The 29-year-old right-hander has dealt with a series of injury problems over the past three seasons. He was placed on the DL in August of 2008 with a right rotator cuff strain, returned to make three starts and was then shut down. In late September of ’08, he underwent surgery to remove a large bone spur from his right shoulder. Last year, he spent three months on the DL with right shoulder weakness. This year, Maine has battled left elbow soreness.

Maine, who’s scheduled to examined by doctors today, says he’s healthy enough to pitch. But whatever is ailing him, it’s clear that his performance is suffering.

From 2006-2008, Maine posted a 4.41 expected FIP (xFIP). He struck out 7.97 batters per nine innings, while issuing 3.74 BB/9. He had a 38.3 percent ground ball rate and a 43.4 percent fly ball rate. Maine’s average fastball velocity was 91 MPH in 2006, 91.2 MPH in 2007 and 92.1 MPH in 2008.

Unfortunately, Maine’s 2009 and 2010 showings look good only in comparison to those of Oliver Perez. He threw 81.1 frames in ’09, with 6.09 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 5.09 xFIP. His already-low ground ball rate fell to 35.1 percent, and his fly ball rate climbed to 43.7 percent.

This season, Maine is missing more lumber (8.85 K/9), but he hasn’t been able to locate (5.67 BB/9). Getting grounders just 26.5 percent of the time and allowing fly balls 52.1 percent, Maine has a 5.29 xFIP in 39.2 innings. He’s giving up 1.82 home runs per nine innings. Maine’s home run/fly ball rate (13.1%) might fall a bit, but he’s got the lowest rate of grounders and the third-highest rate of fly balls among starters with at least 30 innings pitched. With those numbers, homers are going to be a problem.

Take a look at his heater velocity since those injury problems started cropping up:

Maine’s overall fastball velocity in 2009 was 91.3 MPH. However, that figure declined directly before his June DL stint and after he returned in September. Maine averaged 91.7 MPH in April, 91.4 MPH in May and 90.4 MPH during his one June start. In three September starts and one October start, he averaged 90.6 MPH.

This year, Maine (throwing his fastball three-quarters of the time) is sitting just 88.6 MPH. During his big league career, he has a +0.26 run value per 100 pitches with the fastball. In 2010, however, it has been hammered for -0.85 runs per 100 thrown. Of course, that’s actually better than his changeup (-2.17) and slider (-3.89).

While his 77.9 percent contact rate bests the 80.9 percent MLB average and he’s getting swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 28.1 percent (27.5 percent MLB average), Maine hasn’t been able to throw strikes consistently. Just 45.7 percent of his pitches have been within the zone, which is two percentage points below the big league average. All three of his pitches have below-average strike rates: 61.4 for the fastball (64.4 MLB average), 57.4 for the changeup (60.7) and 55.3 for the slider (63.4).

It’s no surprise that a starter, lobbing high-80’s fastballs with spotty control and a sky-high fly ball rate, is getting throttled. Hopefully, Maine and the Mets can find the root cause of his struggles.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool

Apparently, Eric Chavez won’t be playing zombie #3 in the latest George Romero flick. With the announcement that Oakland designated Jack Cust for assignment, it appears that Chavez will take over DH duties in Oakland.

Cust was non-tendered by the A’s in December, then re-signed with the club for $2.65 million in January. The 31 year-old lefty batter is coming off of a mild season at the plate in 2009, as his wOBA fell to .342 (it was .371 in 2008 and .393 in 2007).

The former Diamondback, Rockie, Oriole and Padre still drew plenty of walks this past year, but took a cut at more pitches than in previous seasons:

2007: 13.8 Outside Swing%, 62.4 Z-Swing%, 20.7 BB%
2008: 15.3 Outside Swing%, 62.8 Z-Swing%, 18.6 BB%
2009: 17.5 Outside Swing%, 67.9 Z-Swing%, 15.2 BB%

As Dave Allen noted last July, Cust expanded his zone, seemingly in an attempt to make more contact. His whiff rate dropped from the 41 percent range to 36 percent and his contact rate rose from the mid-sixties to the high-sixties, but his power suffered. After posting Isolated Power figures of .248 in 2007 and .245 in 2008, his ISO dipped to .177 in 2009.

The phrase “power to all fields” may seem trite, but Cust certainly fit the description in 2007 and 2008. While he was above average when he pulled the ball, he mashed to the middle and opposite fields like few others. In 2009? He was still well above average on balls hit to the middle and opposite fields, but he didn’t pull the ball with much authority. Here are Cust’s spray numbers over the 2007-2009 seasons, as well as the league averages for lefty batters for context:

I highlighted Cust’s ’09 numbers on balls hit to left and balls pulled to the right. Cust’s opposite field hitting (.374 wOBA) remained very good relative to the league average for lefties (.316 wOBA), though obviously short of his .500+ wOBA marks on balls hit to left in 2007 and 2008. When Cust pulled the ball in ’09, his .377 wOBA came in well under the .399 league average and was a far cry from his .434 mark in 2007 and .464 figure in 2008.

As for 2010, CHONE, ZiPS and the FANS all project Cust to post a wOBA in the .360 range. Considering that Cust plays defense like his cleats are made of cinder blocks (career -20.4 UZR/150 in the outfield), he’s one of the few players who holds more value as a DH than a position player.

Cust could stay with the A’s if he clears waivers and accepts a minor league assignment. However, one obvious landing spot would be the south side of Chicago, where the White Sox are set to open 2010 with an underwhelming DH duo of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay. Jones and Kotsay project as sub-replacement-level at the DH spot, and Cust could be a two-win upgrade if he matches those offensive forecasts. Considering how tightly bunched the AL Central standings figure to be, Chicago shouldn’t let such a chance slip past them.

Chavez, meanwhile, will try to pick up the pieces of a career that has been shattered by back, shoulder and elbow injuries. Entering the last guaranteed year of a six-year, $66 million deal that was entirely defensible at the time, Chavez will pull down $12 million in 2010.

The memories might be hazy now, but the 32 year-old was once a force both in the field and at the plate, eclipsing the 5 WAR mark in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005. Chavez could be quickly relegated to spectator status by another injury, Jake Fox or Chris Carter, but it’s hard not to root for the guy.

There’s a lot going on at FanGraphs each week. This week alone we had 43 posts, rolled out two new features, and made a book announcement. So in case you missed something, here were the highlights:

Splits! – Finally, FanGraphs now has splits data dating back to 2002. They include platoon, home/away, monthly, leverage, batted ball, and spray splits.

2010 Second Opinion – By the end of the month we’ll be releasing our first electronic publication, The FanGraphs Second Opinion: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Companion

FanGraphs Audio – Carson Cistulli hosts our very first podcast where we go roundtabling with Dave Cameron, Matt Klaassen, and Erik Manning.

New Contributors – Joe Pawlikowski checks out why teams are avoiding Jermaine Dye and Alex Remington looks at why signing early is what gets you the big bucks.

Split Analysis Galore – Intro | Mauer | Platoon | Weaver | Gagne | Bonds | Hill | Howard | The Minors | Looper

And on the RotoGraphs Fantasy side of things:

OBP or AVG – Zach Sanders delves into the merits and difficulties of adding On-Base Percentage to your league’s scoring categories.

ADP Values: Center Field Edition – Eno Sarris identifies some of the values to be had at the center field position.

Rzepczynski – David Golebiewski takes a hard look at Marc Rzepczynski and concludes he’s someone to target late in fantasy drafts.

If you somehow missed it, Marc Hulet has been recapping the 2007 draft for the past week in honor of tomorrow’s 2008 draft. They’re a must read if you want to know how the first few rounds panned out one year later.

National League

• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: NL First Round
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: NL Supplemental
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: NL Second Round
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: NL Third Round

American League:

• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: AL First Round
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: AL Supplemental
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: AL Second Round
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: AL Third Round

Can I Get A Hitter? (Dave Cameron)
– Middle infielders beware: 2008 wrote you a letter and it’s not nice.

Zito…Pitches…Well? (Eric Seidman)
– In a drastic turn of events, it appears Zito did something right.

The Little Red Machine (Marc Hulet)
– Marc thinks the Reds might have found some hidden gems in the 2007 draft.

Designated What? (Dave Cameron)
– Things aren’t good when some team’s pitchers are hitting better than your team’s DH.

Should I Trade Roy Oswalt? (Eric Seidman)
– I’d trade 1 Roy Oswalt for 1 Chase Utley in a heartbeat.

Win Probability: 1974-1980
– All your favorite players from the latter half of the 70’s now have WPA stats!

Angels Big Two (David Cameron)
– No, it’s not Lackey and Escobar. It’s those other guys: Saunders and Santana.

Furcal En Fuego (Eric Seidman)
– Does batting .366 with 5 home runs count as “en feugo”? Si.

Kerry Wood 20K: 10 Year Anniversary
– Look inside for the video. You have to see it to believe it.

Are the Reds Ready to Get a Little Greener? (Marc Hulet)
– Marc kicks of Reds week with a look at Homer Baily and Jay Bruce.

Try Another Pitch, Fausto (Dave Cameron)
– We know you love your trusty old fastball, but….

Have No Fear, Church is Here (Eric Seidman)
– That trade isn’t looking so bad right now, is it?

Cust Cussing (Dave Cameron)
– Dave takes a look at Jack Cust’s off the charts performance.

Is Willingham Ready to Bust Out? (Eric Seidman)
– Will Willingham continue his terrific season for the first place Marlins?

Keeping a Rookie Pitcher Grounded (Marc Hulet)
– What’s so special about top Red Sox prospect Justin Masterson?

Maximizing Potential (Dave Cameron)
– It looks like Chien-Ming Wang has a new trick up his sleeve.

Plate Discipline Stats
– Go look at them in the player pages!

Pitching Trio of the Month (Eric Seidman)
– It’s probably not any three pitchers on the Pirates’ staff.

Whoops – You Aren’t Good, Are You? (Dave Cameron)
– Jon Garland is taking the term “contact pitcher” to new extremes.

A WPA Look at the Houdinis (Eric Seidman)
– Just how valuable is it to get out of that bases-loaded, no-out jam?

Robinzon Diaz… Not Your Typical Catcher (Marc Hulet)
– The Blue Jays have themselves a catcher who can hit.

Extra Base Hit Monsters (Dave Cameron)
– Utley may be #1 in extra bases, but there’s a tight race for #2.

Banking on a Fresh Start (Marc Hulet)
– The Padres might have just picked up another diamond in the ruff.

Win Probability: 1974
– Who knew Richie Zisk should have won the 1974 NL MVP?

The Most Underrated Player in Baseball (Dave Cameron)
– Say hello to the next Tony Gwynn (maybe).

BrewCrew Win an Odd One (Eric Seidman)
– Check out Gabe Gross’s last hurrah in Milwaukee.

Snider Movin’ On Up to the East Coast (Marc Hulet)
– Marc begins his week long trek through Blue Jays prospect land.

Snakes Made Of Leather (Dave Cameron)
– Why are those DBacks 15-5?

Welcome to the Club, Smoltz: Who’s Next? (Eric Seidman)
– Maybe it’s Glavine? He could pitch another six years!