Daily Graphing – Mike Cameron

by
November 17, 2005

Yesterday it was reported that the Mets will trade Mike Cameron to the Padres for Xavier Nady. The trade is contingent on Mike Cameron successfully passing a vision test since his 2005 season ended prematurely after butting heads (literally) with Carlos Beltran. Let's take a look at how he might fare with a change of scenery.

BA

The two nice things about Mike Cameron are that he has both power and speed. He's been a 25 Home Run / 30 Stolen Base guy on a few occasions. Unfortunately, as you can see from the graph above, he doesn't hit for average. He did however hit for a career high .273 last season, despite his falling walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K).

BBK

I do find this downward trend in his BB/K rather disturbing as it is nearing unacceptable levels. This decline was masked by a very high Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), which explains the career high batting average. Assuming his BABIP returns to a normal level next year, he'll probably hit closer to .240 than .270.

BABIP

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As for his power numbers, a move to PETCO Park certainly won't help him as it's the most difficult park to hit home runs in. Yet, I honestly don't see much of a decrease since he's played in Safeco Field and Shea Stadium the past 6 years which are also difficult parks to hit home runs in for right handed batters. Also, the Padres like to steal as much as any team, so I don't see him stealing any fewer bases. All in all, he should have a very typical Mike Cameron year; decent power and speed, with no consistency to get on base.





 

David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

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