Daily Notes, Ft. WS Odds Converted into Projections

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. World Series Odds Converted into Projections
2. Video: Cubs Shortstop Prospect Arismendy Alcantara
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League

World Series Odds Converted into Projections
Bovada (née Bodog) has published their early odds for the winner of the 2013 World Series. Odds for each of the 30 major-league teams are reproduced below. Also included are the break-even (BE) point (i.e. the likelihood of winning above which a team must have in order for a bet to be profitable) and a generic “projected” probability (i.e. what the odds suggest is the likely chance of each team winning the World Series) calculated by scaling the sum of all break-even percentages to 100%.

Note: the author has assumed, as appears to be customary, that the bettor gets his original stake back in a winning bet. So if the odds are 8/1 — as they are for Toronto — the bettor receives $9 in return for a winning $1 bet, making the break-even point only 11.1%.

Other note: Bovada is generally considered to be what’s known as a “square” book — which is to say, it tends to take bets from casual bettors who are more likely to bet on favorites or for their hometown team, for example. Accordingly, these books will offer less favorable odds on more popular clubs — and artificially inflate the projected World Series chances of those clubs, in the process. A “sharp” book, meanwhile, tends to cater more towards experienced bettors, who are more likely to place reasoned bets.

Team	Odds	BE	Proj%
Toronto Blue Jays	8/1	11.1%	8.5%
Los Angeles Angels	17/2	10.5%	8.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers	17/2	10.5%	8.0%
Washington Nationals	9/1	10.0%	7.6%
Detroit Tigers	10/1	9.1%	6.9%
Cincinnati Reds	12/1	7.7%	5.9%
New York Yankees	12/1	7.7%	5.9%
Texas Rangers	12/1	7.7%	5.9%
San Francisco Giants	14/1	6.7%	5.1%
Philadelphia Phillies	15/1	6.3%	4.8%
Atlanta Braves	18/1	5.3%	4.0%
Boston Red Sox	25/1	3.8%	2.9%
St. Louis Cardinals	25/1	3.8%	2.9%
Tampa Bay Rays	25/1	3.8%	2.9%
Oakland Athletics	28/1	3.4%	2.6%
Milwaukee Brewers	35/1	2.8%	2.1%
Baltimore Orioles	40/1	2.4%	1.9%
Chicago White Sox	40/1	2.4%	1.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks	45/1	2.2%	1.7%
Kansas City Royals	45/1	2.2%	1.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates	50/1	2.0%	1.5%
Cleveland Indians	75/1	1.3%	1.0%
Minnesota Twins	75/1	1.3%	1.0%
New York Mets	75/1	1.3%	1.0%
Seattle Mariners	75/1	1.3%	1.0%
Chicago Cubs	100/1	1.0%	0.8%
Colorado Rockies	100/1	1.0%	0.8%
Miami Marlins	100/1	1.0%	0.8%
San Diego Padres	100/1	1.0%	0.8%
Houston Astros	200/1	0.5%	0.4%

If we take for granted that each of the final eight teams to qualify for the playoffs has a 12.5% chance of winning the World Series — which, admittedly, is something we maybe can’t take for granted — then we might say, based on this information, that Toronto has something like a 68% chance (8.5%/12.5%) of qualifying for the divisional series, while Houston has about a 3% chance.

Video: Cubs Shortstop Prospect Arismendy Alcantara
Arismendy Alcantara, who played at High-A Daytona this past year as a 20-year-old, makes his first appearance today on the SCOUT batting leaderboard for Dominican Winter League hitters of something resembling prospect age, with a 4:2 walk-to-strikeout ratio and a home run in just 16 plate appearances.

While our own entirely admirable Marc Hulet omitted Alcantara from his Cubs top-15 prospect list, Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospect Nation very recently ranked Alcantara ninth among Cubs prospects, citing his (i.e. Alcantara’s) “plus-plus hitting potential” and ability to remain at short.

Here’s video, courtesy of Baseball Instinct, of Alcantara from this summer:

SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League
Below are the current SCOUT leaderboards for the Dominican Winter League. (Ages as of July 1st, 2012. Players listed with most recent team. Click here for more on what is SCOUT.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.

Player	Team	Age	Pos	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Hector Luna	Phillies	32	3B	193	2.7%	14.8%	14.0%	135
Nelson Perez	Cubs	24	OF	104	2.5%	18.1%	23.8%	124
Ricardo Nanita	Blue Jays	31	OF	132	1.4%	12.3%	8.9%	122
Mauro Gomez	Red Sox	27	1B	193	3.0%	12.8%	20.2%	121
Jordany Valdespin	Mets	24	2B	98	2.2%	12.4%	15.2%	120
Donell Linares	MEX	28	3B	90	2.3%	8.3%	10.2%	119
Miguel Tejada	Orioles	38	SS	137	2.3%	7.5%	9.6%	118
Todd Linden	Giants	32	OF	108	3.5%	13.4%	25.9%	117
Brad Snyder	Astros	30	OF	37	3.3%	10.3%	20.2%	117
Miguel Sano	Twins	19	3B	49	2.9%	11.3%	19.3%	116

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Hitters (Prospects)
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League, but only populated with players who are 25 or under — i.e. something more like “prospect” age relative to the league.

Player	Team	Age	Pos	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Nelson Perez	Cubs	24	OF	104	2.5%	18.1%	23.8%	124
Jordany Valdespin	Mets	24	2B	98	2.2%	12.4%	15.2%	120
Miguel Sano	Twins	19	3B	49	2.9%	11.3%	19.3%	116
Wilin Rosario	Rockies	23	C	40	2.6%	11.2%	17.8%	116
Oscar Taveras	Cardinals	20	OF	158	2.2%	9.0%	13.3%	114
Moises Sierra	Blue Jays	23	OF	158	2.5%	10.5%	18.4%	112
Yan Gomes	Blue Jays	24	OF	64	2.8%	9.0%	19.5%	108
Arismendy Alcantara	Cubs	20	SS	16	2.1%	10.8%	18.1%	108
Juan Francisco	Braves	25	3B	136	4.0%	8.6%	26.4%	108
Kole Calhoun	Angels	24	OF	83	2.3%	11.1%	20.4%	107

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Erick Abreu	Astros	28	20	0	30.1	114	28.4%	8.9%	71
Kyler Newby	Orioles	27	7	7	31.0	128	27.4%	9.2%	75
Tony Pena	Red Sox	31	17	0	20.2	82	26.4%	9.1%	77
Johan Yan	Rangers	27	20	0	15.2	65	25.8%	9.3%	80
Samuel Deduno	Twins	28	5	4	20.2	83	25.6%	9.6%	81
Dustin Richardson	IND	28	17	1	16.0	66	24.3%	9.1%	83
Kelvin De La Cruz	Tigers	23	11	1	15.1	68	24.0%	9.3%	84
Fabio Castro	Athletics	27	11	9	38.1	166	23.5%	8.9%	85
Jose De Paula	Padres	22	12	6	33.0	142	22.3%	8.8%	88
Danny Salazar	Indians	22	5	3	14.0	58	22.6%	9.1%	88

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Pitchers (Starters)
Here is the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League, but only populated with pitchers who’ve made at least half of their appearances as starts.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Kyler Newby	Orioles	27	7	7	31.0	128	27.4%	9.2%	75
Samuel Deduno	Twins	28	5	4	20.2	83	25.6%	9.6%	81
Fabio Castro	Athletics	27	11	9	38.1	166	23.5%	8.9%	85
Jose De Paula	Padres	22	12	6	33.0	142	22.3%	8.8%	88
Danny Salazar	Indians	22	5	3	14.0	58	22.6%	9.1%	88
Esmil Rogers	Indians	26	2	2	8.0	31	21.9%	9.0%	89
Josh Outman	Rockies	27	6	6	25.2	111	22.1%	9.5%	90
Aneury Rodriguez	Astros	24	8	8	32.0	135	21.2%	8.5%	90
Randall Delgado	Braves	22	7	6	26.2	115	21.7%	9.2%	91
Stolmy Pimentel	Red Sox	22	8	6	23.0	101	21.3%	8.9%	91