Daily Notes: How 2012’s Spring Pitching Leaders Fared

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. How 2012’s Spring Pitching Leaders Fared
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Spring Training (Overall)
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Spring Training (Rookies)

How 2012’s Spring Pitching Leaders Fared
Already atop last Friday’s edition of the SCOUT pitching leaderboards, Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran produced Saturday what is likely his best line of the spring: 6.0 IP, 21 TBF, 10 K, 3 BB, 0 HR, 0 H. He continues to possess the spring’s highest regressed strikeout rate — and, with ca. 100 batters faced, is about two-thirds of the way to the point at which strikeout rates have typically become reliable at the major-league level*.

*Which is a different thing, of course, than when they become reliable at spring training, a consideration whose depths remain (understandably) unplumbed.

“What does that mean for Julio Teheran, 2013 Braves Starter?” is a question a reader might ask. Allow the author to answer that question only in part — in this case, by considering how the top-10 pitchers from last spring’s final SCOUT leaderboard (about which you can read more below) fared in the 2012 regular season.

Here they are, in order of finish. SCOUT- represents each pitcher’s spring performance from 2012. Everything to the right of that is from the 2012 regular season.

Name	Team	SCOUT-	——	G	GS	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	GB%	BABIP	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-	WAR
Zack Greinke	—	72	——	34	34	212.1	868	23.0%	6.2%	49.2%	.306	88	79	80	5.1
Francisco Liriano	—	73	——	34	28	156.2	693	24.1%	12.6%	43.8%	.300	128	103	100	1.8
Roy Halladay	Phillies	78	——	25	25	156.1	646	20.4%	5.6%	44.7%	.301	114	94	92	2.5
Chris Capuano	Dodgers	83	——	33	33	198.1	817	19.8%	6.6%	40.3%	.284	99	106	102	2.1
Cory Luebke	Padres	83	——	5	5	31.0	130	17.7%	6.2%	47.9%	.276	72	78	100	0.7
Yu Darvish	Rangers	83	——	29	29	191.1	816	27.1%	10.9%	46.2%	.295	89	74	85	5.1
James Shields	Rays	85	——	33	33	227.2	944	23.6%	6.1%	52.3%	.292	90	88	78	4.3
Justin Verlander	Tigers	85	——	33	33	238.1	956	25.0%	6.3%	42.3%	.273	64	70	80	6.8
Luis Marte	Tigers	85	——	13	0	22.1	93	20.4%	9.7%	30.2%	.250	68	121	120	-0.1
Luke Hochevar	Royals	85	——	32	32	185.1	800	18.0%	7.6%	43.3%	.315	139	112	105	1.5
Average		81	——	27	25	162.0	676	21.9%	7.8%	44.0%	.289	95	93	94	3.0

This is hardly conclusive, of course. Perhaps later in the week, if he possesses sufficient internal resources, the author will consider not only the spring pitching laggards from last season, but also pitchers from both categories (leaders and laggards) from other spring-training seasons.

In any case, here are three observations relevant to the table above:

• The spring pitching leaderboards (moreso than the hitting ones, it would seem) are populated by a number of conspicuously talented players. Last year, it was Zack Greinke and Roy Halladay and Yu Darvish and Justin Verlander. This spring so far (which one can see below), it’s Stephen Strasburg and Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw.

• That is likely the case for two reasons — both of which involve striking batters out. First of all, strikeouts are a vital ingredient in run prevention. Second of all, strikeout rates tend to become reliable in relatively small sample sizes — somewhere between 125 or 150 batters faced, about. Again, spring numbers might have different reliability thresholds. Still, the point remains: good pitchers are generally recording strikeouts.

• All of this is likely good news for Julio Teheran’s prospects this season. He’s missing lots of bats, which is something he hasn’t done a lot of before — not against major-league competition, at least. He’s struck out over a third of the nearly 100 batters he’s faced. Precedent (from last year’s leaderboards, at least) suggests that some of that skill carries over the regular season.

SCOUT Leaderboards: Spring Training (Overall)
SCOUT Leaderboard: Spring Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for spring training. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all spring hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Domonic Brown	PHI	COF	80	7	6	10	4.3%	7.9%	15.1%	125
Jose Bautista	TOR	RF	55	5	8	7	3.9%	9.9%	16.1%	123
Ryan Raburn	CLE	UT	47	4	8	4	3.6%	10.2%	15.1%	123
Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B	70	7	3	8	4.4%	6.8%	15.0%	123
Christian Yelich	MIA	LF	51	5	6	7	3.9%	9.0%	16.6%	120
Paul Konerko	CWS	1B	56	5	4	5	3.9%	7.8%	14.6%	120
Steve Pearce	BAL	COR	40	5	4	5	4.0%	8.5%	16.6%	120
Lonnie Chisenhall	CLE	3B	52	4	7	6	3.6%	9.5%	15.8%	119
Miguel Cabrera	DET	3B	45	4	4	3	3.6%	8.3%	14.6%	118
Gaby Sanchez	PIT	CIF	40	4	4	3	3.7%	8.5%	15.2%	118

SCOUT Leaderboard: Spring Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT leaderboard for spring training. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all spring pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	Team	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Julio Teheran	ATL	6	6	26.0	95	35	9	30.0%	8.3%	71
Stephen Strasburg	WSH	6	6	25.1	108	31	7	25.8%	7.8%	80
Matt Harvey	NYM	5	5	18.1	73	24	4	25.3%	7.7%	81
Alex Cobb	TB	6	6	25.2	99	28	5	24.9%	7.5%	82
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	6	6	25.0	106	28	7	24.0%	7.8%	85
J.J. Hoover	CIN	7	0	8.0	34	14	1	23.4%	7.8%	86
Donnie Joseph	KC	9	0	9.0	34	14	2	23.4%	7.9%	87
Michael Wacha	STL	5	0	11.2	44	15	1	22.9%	7.6%	87
Raul Valdes	PHI	7	1	14.1	57	17	1	22.6%	7.4%	87
Greg Burke	NYM	9	0	10.1	40	14	0	22.7%	7.5%	87

SCOUT Leaderboards: Spring Training (Rookies)
SCOUT Leaderboard: Spring Rookie Hitters
Below is a table of the the top-five spring hitters per SCOUT who are also rookie eligible. “Rank” stands for each player’s rank among Marc Hulet’s organizational top-15 list for the relevant organization.

Player	Team	Pos	Rank	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Christian Yelich	MIA	LF	2	51	5	6	7	3.9%	9.0%	16.6%	120
Khris Davis	MIL	LF	N/A	51	6	4	10	4.3%	8.0%	18.6%	117
Conor Gillaspie	CWS	3B	N/A	47	2	7	2	3.0%	9.7%	13.7%	116
Brandon Laird	HOU	CIF	N/A	53	5	4	9	3.9%	8.0%	17.7%	115
Brandon Barnes	HOU	OF	N/A	38	4	1	3	3.7%	7.1%	15.5%	114

SCOUT Leaderboard: Spring Rookie Pitchers
Below is a table of the the top-five spring pitchers per SCOUT who are also rookie eligible. “Rank” stands for each player’s rank among Marc Hulet’s organizational top-15 list for the relevant organization.

Player	Team	Rank	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Julio Teheran	ATL	1	6	6	26.0	95	35	9	30.0%	8.3%	71
J.J. Hoover	CIN	7	7	0	8.0	34	14	1	23.4%	7.8%	86
Donnie Joseph	KC	N/A	9	0	9.0	34	14	2	23.4%	7.9%	87
Michael Wacha	STL	2	5	0	11.2	44	15	1	22.9%	7.6%	87
Allen Webster	BOS	4	4	0	11.0	43	14	1	22.3%	7.6%	89