Daily Notes: Rousing Information for the Learned Fan

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable International League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A International League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable International League Peformances
The leaderboards for the Triple-A International League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards.

• This season is likely to mark the third consecutive one in which Chris Marrero, in his age-24 season, makes the majority of his plate appearances at Triple-A. Either a return to health or exposure to the level has allowed him to flourish early on. Generally speaking, it’s to the hitter’s advantage to walk and strikeout and homer all at the same rate — a thing which Marrero is more or less doing at the moment. Still, his currently major-league prospects rely on an injury to Adam LaRoche or trade.

• Yankees infield second-base prospect Corban Joseph was featured yesterday — for the second consecutive week — on the author’s middling contribution to prospect analysis, The Fringe Five.

• It is entirely within the realm of possibility that Tony Cingrani, now a member of the Cincinnati rotation, will appear on the International’s League’s SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the duration of the season, so exceptional were his three starts and 14.1 innings. Here’s his line after two major-league starts: 12.0 IP, 35.4% K, 6.3% BB, 44.4% GB, 2.22 SIERA, 58 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR.

SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A International League
Previously considered: Triple-A Pacific Coast League (April 11) / Double-A Eastern League (April 12) / Double-A Southern League (April 16) / Double-A Texas League (April 17) / High-A Carolina League (April 22) / High-A California League (April 23) / High-A Florida State League (April 24).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the Triple-A International League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard?” a reader might reasonably ask. In brief, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail. (A longer explanation is available here.)

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the Triple-A International League. (Note: statistics current as of Wednesday night.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Triple-A International League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all International League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Chris Marrero	Nationals (AAA)	24	66	5	6	7	3.2%	9.5%	16.4%	123
Ernesto Mejia	Braves (AAA)	27	78	7	9	20	3.7%	10.5%	23.4%	119
Andy LaRoche	Blue Jays (AAA)	29	64	4	6	8	2.8%	9.6%	17.4%	118
Zoilo Almonte	Yankees (AAA)	24	73	1	15	10	1.8%	13.7%	17.4%	117
Luis Jimenez	Blue Jays (AAA)	31	61	3	8	8	2.5%	10.8%	17.8%	117
Corban Joseph	Yankees (AAA)	24	76	3	8	9	2.4%	10.1%	16.4%	116
Jim Negrych	Blue Jays (AAA)	28	51	2	6	3	2.3%	10.3%	15.9%	116
Mauro Gomez	Blue Jays (AAA)	28	49	3	10	11	2.6%	12.4%	21.5%	115
Chris Colabello	Twins (AAA)	29	77	6	6	17	3.4%	9.0%	21.6%	115
Josh Phegley	White Sox (AAA)	25	65	4	5	10	2.8%	9.1%	18.6%	114

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Hitters (Age 24 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A International League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Chris Marrero	Nationals (AAA)	24	66	5	6	7	3.2%	9.5%	16.4%	123
Zoilo Almonte	Yankees (AAA)	24	73	1	15	10	1.8%	13.7%	17.4%	117
Corban Joseph	Yankees (AAA)	24	76	3	8	9	2.4%	10.1%	16.4%	116
Hak-Ju Lee	Rays (AAA)	22	57	1	11	9	1.9%	12.5%	19.0%	112
Tyson Gillies	Phillies (AAA)	24	55	1	9	8	1.9%	11.6%	18.6%	110
Oswaldo Arcia	Twins (AAA)	22	38	3	4	9	2.7%	9.9%	21.7%	108
L.J. Hoes	Orioles (AAA)	23	71	1	8	9	1.8%	10.3%	17.1%	108
Anthony Gose	Blue Jays (AAA)	22	73	1	8	11	1.8%	10.2%	18.1%	105
Joey Terdoslavich	Braves (AAA)	24	85	4	2	14	2.7%	6.6%	18.4%	105
Jose Iglesias	Red Sox (AAA)	23	45	2	3	8	2.3%	9.1%	20.0%	104

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Triple-A International League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all International League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Tony Cingrani	Reds (AAA)	23	3	3	14.1	48	26	2	31.6%	9.3%	66
Jake Odorizzi	Rays (AAA)	23	3	3	17.0	68	25	5	28.1%	9.5%	77
Josh Lueke	Rays (AAA)	28	10	0	12.0	47	20	4	27.7%	9.7%	79
Vidal Nuno	Yankees (AAA)	25	4	4	23.1	85	26	2	26.4%	8.6%	80
Steve Geltz	Rays (AAA)	25	6	0	10.2	44	19	4	27.5%	9.7%	80
Andrew Oliver	Pirates (AAA)	25	4	4	21.1	89	29	12	27.9%	10.4%	81
Mark Montgomery	Yankees (AAA)	22	5	0	8.0	31	15	1	26.6%	9.4%	81
Chris Carpenter	Red Sox (AAA)	27	7	0	9.1	47	19	7	27.1%	10.2%	83
Kirby Yates	Rays (AAA)	26	8	0	9.2	41	16	1	25.9%	9.2%	83
Mickey Storey	Blue Jays (AAA)	27	5	0	11.2	44	17	4	26.2%	9.7%	84

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Triple-A International League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Tony Cingrani	Reds (AAA)	23	3	3	14.1	48	26	2	31.6%	9.3%	66
Jake Odorizzi	Rays (AAA)	23	3	3	17.0	68	25	5	28.1%	9.5%	77
Vidal Nuno	Yankees (AAA)	25	4	4	23.1	85	26	2	26.4%	8.6%	80
Andrew Oliver	Pirates (AAA)	25	4	4	21.1	89	29	12	27.9%	10.4%	81
Alex Torres	Rays (AAA)	25	3	3	16.0	60	19	5	25.3%	9.6%	86
Carlos Carrasco	Indians (AAA)	26	2	1	10.0	33	12	1	24.4%	9.4%	88
Trevor Bauer	Indians (AAA)	22	2	2	13.0	51	16	4	24.5%	9.6%	89
Allen Webster	Red Sox (AAA)	23	2	2	10.0	40	12	3	23.4%	9.6%	92
Chris Archer	Rays (AAA)	24	4	4	20.0	91	22	8	22.9%	9.6%	94
Hector Rodriguez	Braves (AAA)	28	4	4	12.1	59	16	8	23.4%	10.2%	94

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Kansas City at Detroit | 13:05 ET
Justin Verlander Code Red Breathless Velocity Status Update Graph:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio

Cincinnati at Washington | 19:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Important prospect Anthony Rendon was promoted to the majors to replace the disabled Ryan Zimmerman. Here’s his line so far through four starts: 15 PA, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 2 H. Meanwhile, here’s his ZiPS rest-of-season projection: 295 PA, .237/.315/.401 (.288 BABIP), .316 wOBA, 93 wRC+, 1.1 WAR. Meanwhile, here’s his rest-of-all-time projection: mostly darkness, probably.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio

Los Angeles AL at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Which is the real Garrett Richards: the one who struggled against Houston (6.1 IP, 5.42 xFIP) in his first start of the season, or the one who more or less dominated Detroit (7.0 IP, 1.31 xFIP) in his second and most reason start? If not the question, that’s at least a question.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio, Perhaps?

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game	Teams	Starters	IP	xFIP-	WAR	—–	Line	Win%
13:05	Pittsburgh Pirates	James McDonald	19.2	136	0.2	|	2.56	38.3%
ET	Philadelphia Phillies	Cliff Lee	28.2	91	0.7	|	1.59	61.7%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
13:10	Los Angeles Dodgers	Hyun-Jin Ryu	24.2	77	0.5	|	1.85	53.1%
ET	New York Mets	Jeremy Hefner	14.0	147	-0.6	|	2.09	46.9%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:05	Cincinnati Reds	Bronson Arroyo	28.0	100	0.6	|	2.15	45.7%
ET	Washington Nationals	Gio Gonzalez	20.0	96	0.2	|	1.81	54.3%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	Chicago Cubs	Edwin Jackson	22.1	88	0.5	|	1.85	53.1%
ET	Miami Marlins	Kevin Slowey	23.2	114	0.3	|	2.09	46.9%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
21:40	Colorado Rockies	Jorge de la Rosa	22.1	95	0.4	|	2.11	46.5%
ET	Arizona Diamondbacks	Trevor Cahill	25.0	102	0.4	|	1.83	53.5%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
13:05	Kansas City Royals	James Shields	27.0	70	0.8	|	2.65	37.0%
ET	Detroit Tigers	Justin Verlander	25.1	76	1.0	|	1.56	63.0%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
18:30	Houston Astros	Philip Humber	19.0	122	0.1	|	3.28	29.9%
ET	Boston Red Sox	Clay Buchholz	30.0	80	0.9	|	1.40	70.1%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:05	Toronto Blue Jays	Mark Buehrle	23.0	105	0.1	|	2.30	42.6%
ET	New York Yankees	Hiroki Kuroda	23.0	84	0.7	|	1.71	57.4%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Tampa Bay Rays	Jeremy Hellickson	25.1	95	0.1	|	2.15	45.6%
ET	Chicago White Sox	Chris Sale	26.0	95	0.2	|	1.80	54.4%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Texas Rangers	Nick Tepesch	14.2	73	0.4	|	1.80	54.4%
ET	Minnesota Twins	Vance Worley	19.0	103	0.5	|	2.15	45.6%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:05	Baltimore Orioles	Jason Hammel	24.2	132	0.0	|	2.15	45.6%
ET	Oakland Athletics	Jarrod Parker	18.0	153	-0.3	|	1.80	54.4%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:10	LAA Angels	Garrett Richards	17.2	72	0.2	|	1.73	56.6%
ET	Seattle Mariners	Brandon Maurer	19.1	132	-0.2	|	2.26	43.4%