Daily Notes: The Top Minor-League Starters by kwERA
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. The Top Minor-League Starters by kwERA
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
The Top Minor-League Starters by kwERA
Introduction
Minor-league regular seasons everywhere have come to their respective conclusions. What concerned readers want to know now — or, at least what the author is presently supposing they want to know — is which qualified minor-league pitchers have recorded the best fielding-independent numbers this year. Moreover, concerned readers are adding this caveat — namely, that they’re interested in a fielding-independent metric that accounts only for strikeout and walk rate, but not home runs, owing to how much more quickly the first two become reliable.
Leaderboard: The Top Minor-League Starters by kwERA
kwERA is an ERA estimator which accounts only for strikeout and walk rate, and was popularized — to the degree that it’s popular, at all — by Tom Tango at Inside the Book. Below are the top-10 qualified minor-league pitchers by kwERA this season. (Note: pitchers who made zero appearances above rookie-level ball have been excluded.)
| Rank | Name | Team | Level | Age | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | kwERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Doran | D-backs | Rk, A- | 22 | 77.0 | 310 | 27.4% | 2.9% | 2.46 |
| 2 | C.J. Edwards | Cubs | A, A+ | 21 | 116.1 | 468 | 33.1% | 8.8% | 2.48 |
| 3 | Michael Feliz | Astros | A- | 19 | 69.0 | 273 | 28.6% | 4.8% | 2.54 |
| 4 | Noah Syndergaard | Mets | A+, AA | 20 | 117.2 | 472 | 28.2% | 5.9% | 2.73 |
| 5 | Edwin Escobar | Giants | A+, AA | 21 | 128.2 | 532 | 27.4% | 5.6% | 2.78 |
| 6 | Kendry Flores | Giants | A | 21 | 141.2 | 551 | 24.9% | 3.1% | 2.79 |
| 7 | Robert Stephenson | Reds | A, A+, AA | 20 | 114.1 | 465 | 29.2% | 7.5% | 2.79 |
| 8 | Christopher Johnson | Giants | A- | 21 | 83.0 | 326 | 23.9% | 2.5% | 2.82 |
| 9 | Zachary Petrick | Cardinals | A, A+, AA | 23 | 113.1 | 453 | 26.9% | 6.0% | 2.88 |
| 10 | Danny Winkler | Rockies | A+, AA | 23 | 157.0 | 618 | 28.3% | 7.6% | 2.91 |
Three Notes
• While a number of notable prospects appear among the leaders here, it’s mostly anonymous right-hander Ryan Doran who appears atop the list. The 2013 season represented Doran’s first in affiliated baseball. Undrafted after playing as a senior this year for San Diego State, the 23-year-old (playing in his age-22 season, it should be said) appears to have signed with the Diamondbacks in mid-June. Per Aaron Fitt of Baseball America, Doran features “an 82-87 fastball, a slow curve and a serviceable 76-78 slider.” Not overpowering, it would seem, but effective enough for the low minors thus far.
• Among those pitchers who played at a level more appropriate for their respective age, it’s probably fair to say that either right-hander C.J. Edwards (Chicago NL) or other right-hander Michael Feliz (Houston) was most impressive by this methodology. The former, featured on multiple occasions in this site’s weekly Fringe Five column, was sent to the Cubs from Texas in July (along with others) in exchange for Matt Garza. The latter was signed by the Astros out of the Dominican in 2010, and throws a fastball that sits at 94-96 mph, according to Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. At The Crawfish Boxes, contributor reillocity has a detailed account of Feliz’s July 12th start.
• The calculation of kwERA in this instance makes no allowances either for park or league. Adjust conclusions accordingly.
Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Los Angeles AL at Houston | 14:10 ET
Jerome Williams (151.2 IP, 107 xFIP-, 0.0 WAR) faces Paul Clemens (56.1 IP, 128 xFIP-, -1.2 WAR).
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio, Maybe?
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire.
Note that these NERD scores are calculated using the methodology introduced recently and designed to account for the influence of playoff odds on the watchability of games. ***Unlike in recent iterations of this table, the author has adjusted the day’s NERD Game Scores such that, combined, they average 5.0.*** This allows said table to resemble more closely the Game Scores that have appeared here over the preceding four months.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | TOR | Mark Buehrle | 13:07 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KC | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | DET | Max Scherzer | 13:08 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | NYN | Dillon Gee | 13:10 |
| Travis Wood | CHN | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 9 | PIT | Francisco Liriano | 13:35 |
| Tyler Cloyd | PHI | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | WAS | J. Zimmermann | 13:35 |
| Burch Smith* | SD | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 | ATL | Julio Teheran | 13:35 |
| Jerome Williams | LAA | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | HOU | Paul Clemens* | 14:10 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | MIL | Yovani Gallardo | 14:10 |
| Zach McAllister | CLE | 3 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 10 | CHA | Chris Sale | 14:10 |
| David Price | TB | 8 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 1 | MIN | P. Hernandez | 14:10 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 6 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 9 | STL | Shelby Miller | 14:15 |
| Jarrod Parker | OAK | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 | TEX | Martin Perez | 15:05 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | COL | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | AZ | Randall Delgado | 16:10 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | SF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LAN | Edinson Volquez | 16:10 |
| Ivan Nova | NYA | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | BOS | Clay Buchholz | 20:05 |
To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Carson, thanks for introducing us to new terminology. Whether it’s new baseball metrics or French phrases, I get more new stuff in my brain every time I click your posts.