Daily Notes: Three True Outcome Leaders and Laggards So Far

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three True Outcome Leaders and Laggards So Far
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Three True Outcome Leaders and Laggards So Far
Introduction
Recently in these pages, Cleveland corner infielder Mark Reynolds characterized his hitting approach for the benefit of David Laurila, saying, “I would say my swing is… a controlled train wreck. I just get it down and let it eat.” Will the comment win him a much deserved Pulitzer Prize for Joyous Remarks? It remains to be seen. What it reveals beyond his gift for the language, though, is the means by which he has consistently found himself among the league’s leaders both in strikeouts and home runs.

Below are the current leaders and laggards by all three true outcomes — both by overall percentage and then by averaged z-score (i.e. average standard deviations from the mean in all three categories). Numbers don’t include Wednesday games.

Three True Outcomes by Percentage: Leaders
Here are the three-true-outcome leaders by percentage among qualified batters:

Name	Team	PA	HR	BB	K	TTO	TTO%
Chris Carter	Astros	196	9	20	75	104	53.1%
Dan Uggla	Braves	193	10	26	64	100	51.8%
Adam Dunn	White Sox	188	12	19	66	97	51.6%
Justin Upton	Braves	212	14	33	57	104	49.1%
Josh Willingham	Twins	194	9	31	52	92	47.4%
Colby Rasmus	Blue Jays	182	8	14	64	86	47.3%
Pedro Alvarez	Pirates	172	10	13	57	80	46.5%
Mike Napoli	Red Sox	222	8	21	74	103	46.4%
B.J. Upton	Braves	176	4	16	60	80	45.5%
Brandon Moss	Athletics	181	7	21	54	82	45.3%

Three True Outcomes by Percentage: Laggards
And here are the laggards by the same method:

Name	Team	PA	HR	BB	K	TTO	TTO%
Jeff Keppinger	White Sox	175	1	2	17	20	11.4%
Placido Polanco	Marlins	196	0	10	14	24	12.2%
Marco Scutaro	Giants	216	1	16	13	30	13.9%
Alcides Escobar	Royals	216	3	8	22	33	15.3%
Juan Pierre	Marlins	176	1	9	17	27	15.3%
Norichika Aoki	Brewers	221	4	18	12	34	15.4%
Omar Infante	Tigers	189	3	12	17	32	16.9%
Andrelton Simmons	Braves	204	5	10	20	35	17.2%
Yadier Molina	Cardinals	198	3	13	18	34	17.2%
Nick Markakis	Orioles	239	5	18	19	42	17.6%

Three True Outcomes by Z-Score: Leaders
Because strikeouts naturally occur more frequently (the average among qualified batters is around 19%) and home runs less frequently (around 3%), considering only overall three-true-outcome percentage naturally skews the odds in favor of high-strikeout batters, even if they lag behind in the other two categories. Roy Halladay, for example, has 11 strikeouts in 11 plate appearances. One-hundred percent of his plate appearances have ended in one of the true outcomse. It wouldn’t be fair, though, to characterize him as a three-true-outcome hitter.

To adjust for that effect, we can look at a player’s true-outcome performance relative to the mean in each category by using z-scores (basically just standard deviations from the mean). Here are the top-10 qualified batters by that methodology:

Name	Team	HRz	BBz	Kz	TTOz
Justin Upton	Braves	2.1	2.2	1.3	1.8
Dan Uggla	Braves	1.3	1.5	2.2	1.7
Adam Dunn	White Sox	2.0	0.5	2.5	1.7
Chris Davis	Orioles	2.8	1.5	0.6	1.6
Josh Willingham	Twins	1.0	2.3	1.3	1.5
Chris Carter	Astros	0.9	0.5	3.0	1.5
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	1.7	2.3	-0.2	1.3
Lucas Duda	Mets	1.1	1.7	1.0	1.3
Mark Reynolds	Indians	1.7	0.8	1.2	1.2
Bryce Harper	Nationals	2.2	1.7	-0.3	1.2

Three True Outcomes by Z-Score: Laggards
And the laggards, as well:

Name	Team	HRz	BBz	Kz	TTOz
Jeff Keppinger	White Sox	-1.4	-2.2	-1.3	-1.6
Placido Polanco	Marlins	-1.7	-1.0	-1.7	-1.5
Juan Pierre	Marlins	-1.4	-1.0	-1.3	-1.2
Salvador Perez	Royals	-1.3	-2.0	-0.4	-1.2
Marco Scutaro	Giants	-1.4	-0.3	-1.9	-1.2
Alcides Escobar	Royals	-0.9	-1.4	-1.3	-1.2
Ben Revere	Phillies	-1.7	-0.9	-0.9	-1.2
Alexei Ramirez	White Sox	-1.4	-1.0	-1.0	-1.1
Ruben Tejada	Mets	-1.7	-0.4	-1.2	-1.1
Ichiro Suzuki	Yankees	-1.1	-1.0	-1.1	-1.0

Notes
• In light of the above, it would probably be most accurate to say that Atlanta outfielder Justin Upton is currently the champion of the three-true-outcome hitters, having recorded home-run, walk, and strikeout rates on average about 1.8 standard deviations above the mean for qualified hitters.

• Both Jose Bautista and Bryce Harper actually hurt their claims to three-true-outcome glory by striking out too infrequently.

• Carlos Peguero appears to be the hitter with the fewest plate appearances to have recorded one of each of the three true outcomes. In seven plate appearances, he has a home run, a walk, and two strikeouts.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Boston at Philadelphia | 19:05 ET
Franklin Morales (76.1 IP, 101 xFIP- 0.8 WAR in 2012) faces Jonathan Pettibone (42.0 IP, 117 xFIP-, 0.0 WAR). The former, after recovering from multiple injuries, is making his 2013 debut. The left-hander sat at ca. 94 mph over his last four starts of 2012.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Philadelphia Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.1.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Brandon McCarthy	AZ	6	4	6	4	6	TEX	Justin Grimm	14:05
Jake Peavy	CHA	7	0	4	5	3	CHN	Travis Wood	14:20
Felix Hernandez	SEA	10	6	8	7	6	SD	Andrew Cashner	15:40
A.J. Griffin	OAK	5	6	4	4	2	SF	Barry Zito	15:45
Franklin Morales*	BOS	7	7	5	1	4	PHI	Jonath. Pettibone	19:05
Homer Bailey	CIN	8	6	7	9	6	CLE	Scott Kazmir	19:05
Doug Fister	DET	6	7	5	7	3	PIT	Jeff Locke	19:05
Dillon Gee	NYN	3	6	4	5	5	NYA	Vidal Nuno*	19:05
Dan Haren	WAS	5	2	4	9	1	BAL	Freddy Garcia	19:05
Alex Colome*	TB	9	7	6	1	5	MIA	Ricky Nolasco	19:10
R.A. Dickey	TOR	9	6	8	9	7	ATL	Mike Minor	19:10
Kyle Lohse	MIL	5	5	4	2	4	MIN	P.J. Walters*	20:10
Jeremy Guthrie	KC	2	6	5	2	8	STL	Michael Wacha*	20:15
Lucas Harrell	HOU	0	4	3	7	3	COL	Juan Nicasio	20:40
Ted Lilly*	LAN	4	2	3	5	2	LAA	Jason Vargas	22:05

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.