Daily Notes, With Some Expected wRC+ Leaderboards

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Expected wRC+ Leaderboards
2. Two Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Expected wRC+ Leaderboards
A Note on Expected wRC+
Last week in these electronic pages, I looked at what I called “Expected wRC+” for batters in May. Expected wRC+ is essentially a version of Bradley Woodrum’s Should Hit formula (itself more or less a FIP for hitters, but with BABIP included) but using regressed (as opposed to raw) home-run, walk, and strikeout rates as the inputs. Also, in this case, BABIP is replaced by expected BABIP (xBABIP), per the formula (adjusted for 2012 league averages) proposed by user slash12 at Beyond the Boxscore in 2009.

The idea here is to estimate something like a player’s true talent over the course of X plate appearances. Indeed, the methodology isn’t flawless: wRC+ is a park-adjusted stat, for example, while the inputs are expressly not park-adjusted. (And, for that reason, Expected wOBA might be a preferable alternative.)

Because today’s slate of games isn’t entirely riveting, I’ve summoned from inside my computer machine the following Expected wRC+ leader- and laggardboards. (Click here to see a spreadsheet for all 385 batters with more than 50 plate appearances.)

Expected wRC+ Leaders, 2012
Here are the leaders in Expected wRC+ (xRC+, in this case) for all batters with at least 50 plate appearances in 2012:

Name	Team	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	xBABIP	xRC+
Joey Votto	Reds	236	3.6%	19.5%	18.2%	.377	178
Josh Hamilton	Rangers	235	7.6%	9.4%	20.4%	.327	169
Matt Kemp	Dodgers	144	5.3%	12.8%	20.7%	.356	165
David Wright	Mets	230	2.9%	16.1%	13.0%	.332	150
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	248	6.1%	12.1%	25.0%	.319	147
Adam Dunn	White Sox	245	6.5%	19.2%	36.7%	.311	146
Lyle Overbay	Diamondbacks	75	2.6%	10.7%	18.4%	.382	145
Austin Kearns	Marlins	54	3.1%	8.1%	19.8%	.388	143
Paul Konerko	White Sox	209	4.5%	11.0%	16.3%	.313	139
David Ortiz	Red Sox	239	4.9%	11.7%	13.4%	.286	138

Notes
The presence of both Lyle Overbay and Austin Kearns on this list suggests that xBABIP itself could use some regression (although, by how much is a question I surely could not answer) — or at least that maybe 100 plate appearances represents a more sensible minimum than 50. Nos. 11 and 12 on this list will not surprise anyone, however: Ryan Braun (135 xRC+) and Joe Mauer (134 xRC+).

Expected wRC+ Laggards, 2012
Here are the bottom 10 hitters this season by Expected wRC+:

Name	Team	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	xBABIP	xRC+
Ryan Raburn	Tigers	135	1.8%	6.7%	25.3%	.207	31
Rick Ankiel	Nationals	139	2.4%	7.0%	32.1%	.233	39
Danny Valencia	Twins	103	2.0%	5.0%	21.4%	.213	39
Don Kelly	Tigers	83	2.2%	9.8%	17.4%	.164	40
Kurt Suzuki	Athletics	183	1.0%	4.7%	19.1%	.238	43
Bobby Wilson	Angels	86	1.8%	7.7%	17.7%	.196	44
Daric Barton	Athletics	126	1.8%	12.6%	23.1%	.192	45
Gaby Sanchez	Marlins	131	1.8%	6.9%	17.8%	.207	46
Chris Heisey	Reds	146	1.7%	5.2%	21.8%	.237	46
Chad Tracy	Nationals	55	3.1%	8.0%	19.0%	.176	47

Notes
Of note: four of these hitters (Raburn, Valencia, Wilson, and Sanchez) actually have higher Expected wRC+s than actual wRC+. Raburn has an 11 wRC+ in 135 plate appearances. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where he’s happy with that.

Potential wRC+ Risers, Maybe
Here are 10 players whose Expected wRC+s are greater than their actual wRC+s:

Name	Team	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	xBABIP	xRC+	wRC+	Diff
Endy Chavez	Orioles	89	2.1%	5.6%	18.0%	.295	86	-9	95
Chris Coghlan	Marlins	89	2.1%	7.6%	15.3%	.295	97	2	95
Eric Sogard	Athletics	71	2.6%	7.3%	18.3%	.312	104	18	86
Wilson Valdez	Reds	51	2.1%	6.2%	19.5%	.276	76	1	75
Marlon Byrd	– – –	152	1.6%	4.5%	20.4%	.341	94	19	75
Cesar Izturis	Brewers	91	2.1%	6.0%	11.7%	.307	104	33	71
Nate McLouth	Pirates	62	2.0%	8.2%	23.4%	.273	73	7	66
Kosuke Fukudome	White Sox	51	2.1%	10.2%	18.9%	.298	99	34	65
Xavier Nady	Nationals	91	2.8%	7.5%	21.7%	.296	93	29	64
Aaron Cunningham	Indians	68	2.0%	9.0%	17.3%	.308	101	38	63

Potential wRC+ Risers, Maybe (More than 100 Plate Appearances)
And because the above list is irksome in some real way, here’s a version of it, except using 100 plate appearances as the minimum plate-appearance threshold:

Name	Team	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	xBABIP	xRC+	wRC+	Diff
Marlon Byrd	– – –	152	1.6%	4.5%	20.4%	.341	94	19	75
Brent Morel	White Sox	125	1.5%	6.6%	29.3%	.311	68	13	55
Manny Burriss	Giants	116	1.6%	8.0%	16.4%	.302	93	38	55
Coco Crisp	Athletics	124	1.5%	7.2%	13.4%	.254	73	19	54
Andy Parrino	Padres	106	2.0%	9.4%	25.1%	.322	95	43	52
Ramon Santiago	Tigers	100	2.1%	8.7%	13.8%	.286	97	50	47
Geovany Soto	Cubs	104	2.7%	9.0%	18.7%	.273	91	44	47
Miguel Olivo	Mariners	117	2.9%	4.4%	21.6%	.311	92	46	46
Ryan Theriot	Giants	108	1.7%	7.8%	11.4%	.327	114	69	45
Ramon Hernandez	Rockies	101	3.0%	6.6%	14.4%	.277	98	59	39

Potential wRC+ Fallers, Maybe
Here are the 10 batters whose wRC+s most greatly exceed their Expected wRC+s:

Name	Team	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	xBABIP	xRC+	wRC+	Diff
Allen Craig	Cardinals	81	4.2%	8.4%	19.5%	.318	125	212	-87
Scott Hairston	Mets	107	4.3%	7.3%	21.5%	.253	90	162	-72
Chad Tracy	Nationals	55	3.1%	8.0%	18.8%	.176	48	116	-68
Mark Trumbo	Angels	194	4.9%	7.2%	22.2%	.294	114	180	-66
Quintin Berry	Tigers	65	2.0%	7.6%	22.8%	.306	87	146	-59
Josh Willingham	Twins	223	4.3%	13.9%	22.9%	.270	114	173	-59
Jonathan Lucroy	Brewers	151	2.9%	5.5%	14.6%	.304	105	164	-59
Mike Moustakas	Royals	206	3.8%	7.8%	18.0%	.211	72	131	-59
Jerry Hairston	Dodgers	104	2.0%	8.5%	11.9%	.272	94	152	-58
Laynce Nix	Phillies	51	2.8%	8.7%	20.0%	.313	107	165	-58

Notes
The aforementioned Austin Kearns is in 11th place on this list.

Two Notable Games
Texas at Oakland | 15:35 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Yu Darvish pitches for Texas. Status Update: 67.1 IP, 24.3% K, 12.6% BB, 47.0% GB, 3.87 SIERA, 92 xFIP-, 1.4 WAR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Tampa Bay at New York AL | 19:05 ET
The Yankees have taken the first two games of this series (box, box). David Price (73.2 IP, 82 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR) faces CC Sabathia (78.1 IP, 81 xFIP-, 1.4 WAR).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.9.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Derek Lowe	CLE	2	4	5	4	6	DET	Casey Crosby*	13:05
Aaron Harang	LAN	4	5	6	4	9	PHI	Cole Hamels	13:05
R.A. Dickey	NYN	10	1	7	5	5	WAS	Chien-Ming Wang*	13:05
Matt Garza	CHN	7	3	2	5	0	MIL	Randy Wolf	14:10
Matt Cain	SF	6	4	3	5	0	SD	Jason Marquis	15:35
Yu Darvish	TEX	6	10	4	2	4	OAK	Brandon McCarthy	15:35
David Price	TB	8	5	8	6	8	NYA	CC Sabathia	19:05
Mike Minor	ATL	5	7	5	4	3	MIA	Mark Buehrle	19:10
Brian Matusz	BAL	4	5	5	5	2	BOS	Clay Buchholz	19:10
Kevin Correia	PIT	0	2	3	4	6	CIN	Mike Leake	19:10
Lance Lynn	STL	7	10	6	5	6	HOU	J.A. Happ	20:05
Henderson Alvarez	TOR	4	6	5	6	6	CHA	Jake Peavy	20:10

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.