Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/29/14

Dan Szymborski: PLEASE ACTUALLY WORK THIS WEEK!!!!

Comment From faith
HE MADE IT

Dan Szymborski: I was here last week! The site didn’t work.

Comment From Mike
Happy Holidays and New Year to everyone!

Comment From Matt
It is alive!

Comment From Matt

Comment From nick in cleveland
legitimately surprised 😀

Dan Szymborski: So welcome to this low traffic holiday week chat.

Dan Szymborski: Will be back to normal stuff next week (so 3 ZiPS teams instead of 1 and a president vote)

Comment From John
So the Mets.

Comment From Vslyke
How would you advise Andrelton Simmons to hit? Focus on power or try to become a higher OBP guy?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to fundamentally change a guy. I’d want him to concentrate on the power, so we know that he does have some. I dont’ think he’d ever be a good OBP guy.

Comment From JonC
It scrolls down…change is bad. 🙂

Dan Szymborski: No control!

Comment From Vic
Who do you prefer for 5 x 5 value from 2015-2017? Trying to decide between Samardzija, Calhoun, and Castro. Leaning Calhoun right now. Can keep any of these 3 for next 3 years, but must throw other 2 back.

Dan Szymborski: Samardzija personally.

Comment From Vic
I like Colby as an Oriole. You?

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually a decent fit.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t I talked about Rasmus before?

Comment From Peter
Freddie Freeman or Eric Hosmer for the long term?

Dan Szymborski: Freeman. Hosmer’s career zip zop zoopity bopping is really frustrating.

Comment From Guest
Vegas has the Rays WS odds at 66/1. Would you take that? seems really low.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s super low, to be honest.

Dan Szymborski: They’ve shed a lot more talent than they have to replace.

Comment From Matt
There was a great GBA game based on Eck’s vs. Sever oddly enough

Comment From ThePuck
Is this the last time we’ll see anything by Jack Moore on this site? That was an insulting article to all projectionists.

Dan Szymborski: No, I’m sure Jack will write more.

Comment From JonC
If the site returns to normal next week, does that mean the Cardinals are it this week for ZiPS projections?

Dan Szymborski: Yup.

Comment From John
Are the mets kidding themselves with being competitive? They point to pitching, and you got Harvey coming back from a major surgery, DeGrom who can’t possibly repeat last year, Wheeler who can’t pitch out of the 5th inning and has been a below league average SP, and then 3 POS borderline league average/below starters. And a shit defense to boot. Is there really any reason for the optimisim

Dan Szymborski: The ownership situation complicates everything. They’ll have a really good team in 2 or 3 years if they don’t figure out how to mess it up first.

Dan Szymborski: At least they’ve generally been quiet after the dumb Cuddyer signing.

Comment From Matt
Is Aoki a perfect fit with nearly every team?

Dan Szymborski: Well, not every fit, but at a good price, he’s a solid 4th OF or fill-in guy.

Comment From dbet
The HS grind in January will be real. Time to get top 100 Legendary.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, one of these months I gotta grind it out and get those card backs. I never play quite enough games.

Comment From Schiraldi
ZiPS has K. Wong at 264/310/389. Do you agree with that? Seems like there’s the potential for more there. Then again, scouting reports tended to have him as an exceptional plate discipline/contact hitter, but his minor league numbers are only good, not superlative.

Dan Szymborski: I think this one is reasonable.

Dan Szymborski: Of course, there’s potential for more (and less). It’s not the 90th percentile projection!

Comment From Mike
Is Carlos Correa the next 30/30 talent in the AL? Or am I aiming too high with him steals wise?

Dan Szymborski: He has a lot of ability, but let’s not get *too* ahead of ourselves.

Comment From faith
What do you make of Kang?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be an averageish player overall.

Comment From Dylan
Speaking of Hosmer: what is up there? He either looks like a very good 1B or a replacement level player. Is he just a player that has trouble adjusting?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly? Beats me.

Comment From ThePuck
Why do people think their eye test is better than defensive metrics, even with it’s flaws? Do they understand that unless they are watching a majority of every teams’s games with the sole goal of evaluating defense and comparing it to other players at the same position, that their eye test is just a ridiculous measure?

Dan Szymborski: People always overestimate their observational abilities.

Dan Szymborski: The human brain is terrible at these sorts of long-term, very similar observations. By design – we all see patterns where none exist.

Dan Szymborski: Take 3 people and they’ll see *one* event differently. Now multiply that by hundreds. And then by all the players at a position.

Dan Szymborski: Defensive numbers have issues, but they’re still better than brains, which are much better at micro-observations.

Comment From Mike
Who will be the Mets SS in 2015? Drew, Tejada, Flores, or someone else? I keep hoping for Tulo but that’s a pipe dream at this point.

Dan Szymborski: I agree Tulo is a pipe dream, the Rockies are one of the most difficult FOs to deal with, as a result of the ownership.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll wing it in the spring. I think they’ll give Flores every chance to win the job given the serious Tejada hate in New York.

Dan Szymborski: Tejada was essentially an average shortstop last year, but to the average Mets fan, he’s like a -2 WAR guy.

Comment From Bruce
What would have been Oscar Taveras’ War projection

Dan Szymborski: Ask me in 5 years.

Comment From John
Edgar Martinez – Hall of Famer?

Dan Szymborski: Should be.

Comment From Technological issues
I heard I’m not wanted here.

Comment From Mike
Who has the better season for me in an AL only league: Odorizzi or Gausman? could they both be sleepers as aces, or #2 starter values?

Dan Szymborski: I prefer Gausman.

Comment From Guest
They have the White Sox,Padres, and Mets at 25/1. The Cubs are 12/1. Clearly people are overreacting.

Dan Szymborski: Well, remember, they’re trying to maximize their return, not necessarily pick the “right” odds.

Dan Szymborski: Cubs at 12/1 is crazy though. They have to be far more likely to make playoffs than not to consider that one.

Comment From The Dude
For the ZIPS projections, how does ZIPS take into account defensive position? My question pertains mostly to teams that have an abundance of one position type and a lack of another (I’m looking at you San Diego). Do you project someone for CF or give them all corner OF projections?

Dan Szymborski: I will usually project a player at his most recent position unless they’re a very obvious change (like Cabrera moving back to 1B was).

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS *prefers* groups of player comps at similar positions, but there are more overriding factors.

Comment From Mookie on the attack
Where does Zobrist end up, and what does he net the Rays? Also, does Nick Franklin do enough next season for the trade to be worth it?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get a good prospect, but he won’t get a crazy package.

Dan Szymborski: Franklin could retire to become a Tibetan monk and there’s still a solid chance the trade is worthwhile.

Comment From Derek Smalls
Aaron Sanchez hold a starter spot?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get first shot at Happ’s job. The “5th starter” job not the “mediocre guy at the back of the rotation” job.

Comment From Scott
Just Traded Starlin Castro and Jason Heyward for Freddie Freeman, thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Assuming fantasy, it’s a solid trade. Heyward’s worth more in real life and Castro’s legal difficulties make him risky.

Comment From Mike
I’ll paint the optimistic for the Mets fan.. I say 85 wins. Over/under that in a division where Washington has taken a bit of a step back, FLA has made additions, but were they right ones, ATL who has lost a lot and PHI is in a rebuild. Why not the Mets?

Dan Szymborski: Eh, I think 85 is a stretch, though obviously possible for a .500ish-talent team.

Dan Szymborski: What step back did Washington take?

Comment From John
For the Mets – would YOU trade for Tulo? Would it be worth a syndergaard and degrom/wheeler for you?

Dan Szymborski: The Mets, i would not.

Comment From J
Are command and control the same thing for a fastball?

Dan Szymborski: Command has different connotations, so probably too general a question.

Comment From ThePuck
Yes, Jack Moore will write more, but will the powers that be look a little closer to see if what he writes passes some kind of logic test before being posted here? Surely there are sites more suited to his kind of writing.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like it’s the only thing he’s ever written.

Dan Szymborski: He’s written a number of things for both THT and FG.

Dan Szymborski: (I’m only answering these Qs because there are a ton on this subject and I’d like to move on!)

Comment From Tom
Hey, saw your Zips for the Cardinals, why do you hate my … oh, um, never mind.

Comment From Derek Smalls
Will Ken Giles replace Papelbon this year as closer…provided they can move him?

Dan Szymborski: The favorite if they move him, I think.

Comment From Schiraldi
There’s been a lot of talk about how aging curves are changing in the post-PED era. Do you believe that the relationship between age and performance has changed, and in what ways? Is it as simple as ‘shorter, earlier peaks’ or more complicated than that?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found much.

Comment From John
given the potential cost for Kang – $5mil to negotiate and his agent asking for 5-6mil per season – did the pirates make a really good deal that most teams in need of MI should have made (especially teams with money)?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a solid deal. Money doesn’t buy what it used to.

Comment From Bruce
Buster Poseys comparable player was some dude from 1906. Have you ever considered narrowing down the player comps to more recent players?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS prioritizes more recent players, but isn’t constrained to more recent players.

Comment From Mike
Mansplain! Fangraphs commenters = amateur pyschologist

Comment From The Dude
Are Cuban or Japanese players harder to project?

Dan Szymborski: In the sense there’s more margin of error, since we have less certainty about the level.

Comment From Joe
Hey Dan, did you ever run a ZiPS for AJP in Atlanta? Should I put my head through a plate glass window now, or wait until February?

Dan Szymborski: 252/282/363, -6 runs at C in like 400 projected PA.

Comment From Jeremy Losak
Best player currently on the Padres? Kemp, Upton, Cashner or Ross?

Dan Szymborski: Cashner’s their best player, though not their healthiest player.

Comment From The Dude
How much value does Myers lose moving to Petco?

Dan Szymborski: Not that much – Tropicana stinks for offense too and the NL is the easier league.

Comment From fabiopao
what do you make of the Indians rotation? are they going to live up to the expectations?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be solidly adequate. Depends on whose expectations.

Comment From Mookie on the attack
Jaiver Baez. Think he makes adjustments next season or does he full on bust?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect he’ll be OK, but it’s not a slam dunk.

Comment From BobbyS
Booo, Bruce!

Comment From Eric
I saw that the projections for Nelson Cruz were at DH so the defensive rating was 0. Would you let us know how he would be in LF after a decent year there for the O’s according the ratings on FG.

Dan Szymborski: I think it was like -3 or so in a corner. He’s never really been as bad overall as one might think – he’s not CUddyer or Kemp out there.

Comment From Mike
Even after all the Padres moves, they are 25/1?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t take them at those odds.

Dan Szymborski: Essentially, at 25/1, they have to have 15% shot at div, 30% at wc. I don’t think they’re that good.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ve really made any kind of dramatic improvement.

Dan Szymborski: They’re a few games better than last year’s team, but they’re around a .500 team.

Comment From boss
So glad you made it this week!! So if you were the Rays, how would you fill their need for another catcher and a DH? Trade for Susac/Castillo/Castro and/or Quentin/Rosario/Swisher? Sign Soto? The FA options look pretty awful.

Dan Szymborski: Susac would be fun.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re in for a year or two of waiver wire lurking.

Comment From Kevin
Is there any high OBP outfielders the Cubs can trade Castillo/Wood for?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d need more than that.

Comment From TomW
Unless I’ve missed something, I haven’t seen a Mike Morse projection. He signed after the Marlins ZiPs came out, but before the Giants ZiPs came out. A little help here, por favor?

Dan Szymborski: Did I post him on twitter? I think I did.

Comment From John
Daniel Murphy – if you are the mets, what do you do with this guy? Seems like they are keeping him to “compete” this year. But he doesn’t warrant a contract extension, nor a qualifying offer, so are they really just going to let him walk for nothing at the end of the season? They can’t possibly trade him at the deadline if they are playing around .500 ball? Wouldn’t they be better off trading him now while teams are looking for 2B?

Dan Szymborski: I’d try to trade him, but the Mets won’.

Comment From JonC
Vegas is usually spot on…but I think they are a year early there.

Dan Szymborski: If I can get people to pay on 12/1, I sure as hell do it.

Comment From Mike
Even after all the moves the Padres made they are 25/1? Seems right but it is kind of funny. Don’t see Kemp surviving the year, Myers is an unknown, and Upton should be solid.

Comment From sammy dee
What do you make of Gammon’s Zobrist to the Giants rumor he buried in tat Hamel’s article? Apparently multiple GMs think the Giants will trade for Zobrist? What would this trade look like, Susac and Crick/Mella, or Susac and a couple smaller pieces?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t heard anything specific on this, but that doens’t mean there’s nothing there (I talk to plenty of people in baseball, but I don’t really do the whole rumor thing so a lot of discussion isn’t even baseball)

Dan Szymborski: And it makes sense.

Comment From Mike
Where does Asdrubal Cabrera end up?

Dan Szymborski: If he doesn’t end up in Toronto, Jays fans should be annoyed.

Dan Szymborski: (Unless of course, the Blue Jays come up with someone better)

Comment From BobbyS
Better long term player: Ty Kelly or Tommy La Stella? Does either have a decent career ahead of them?

Dan Szymborski: La Stella’s safer, but has the lower ceiling I think.

Comment From The Boat
Best FA value (any position) left on FA market? Best trade value left on trade market?

Dan Szymborski: Any player can be traded (well, almost any). On the FA market, Cabrera and Rasmus strike me as the best bargains left.

Comment From dbet
I like the Steelers at 18-1, I think they can win 4 coinflips, and I believe they are slightly above favorable in some matches. That’s assuming Bell can still play.

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m a Steelers fan, but I don’t find the team particularly impressive.

Comment From Derek Smalls
Does Andrew Susac have a future at C in SF?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they are (or should they be) in a hurry to move Posey off catcher.

Dan Szymborski: I think Susac’s more useful as trade bait.

Comment From Kyle
Dan, what do you make of Jay Bruce’s ugly 2014. Is he a K prone slugger trending in the wrong direction or can the Reds expect a bounce back in 2015?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll have a pretty good bounceback.

Dan Szymborski: This year is probably enough to make Bruce no longer be overrated.

Comment From Harbaugh on a plane
Dan, what do you think Avisail Garcia will become? The Tigers had him penciled in to the spot now being filled by Yoenis Cespedes, and I just wonder what you think. Obviously he benefits from the Cell over Comerica.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he has a wide enough skilslet to really be all that interesting long-term.

Dan Szymborski: I bet he ends up hitting 35 HR a year in Japan though or something

Comment From Jeremy Losak
How many more years do you think RA Dickey remains in the league?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say 3. The 2 remaining in his contract and then maybe a 1-year swansong.

Comment From The Boat
Thoughts on Eovaldi in the Bronx? NYY pitching staff in general?

Dan Szymborski: Could be adequate, but not exactly exciting.

Dan Szymborski: Eovaldi has a lot of potential, but he’s far from a guarantee to consistently take a step forward (he shows it for months at a time). Of course if he was a guarantee, he’d fetch more than Prado.

Comment From Keeper
Who should I expect more regression from, Calhoun or Neil Walker?

Dan Szymborski: Calhoun most likely, though he’ll still be a solid player.

Dan Szymborski: Though I think Walker will also take a little step back (2014 wasn’t really *taht* crazy)

Comment From BobbyS
When the ZiPS machine is up and at em, can we can get the latest/holiday transaction relevant numbers? Young back in BAL, Barton (TOR), Pierzynsky (ATL), Manship (CLE), Bell (WAS), Grill (ATL), Ross (CHC), Stauffer (MIN), McCarthy (LAD). That’s a lot, maybe a Twitter ZiPS dump later?

Dan Szymborski: I did some of these in Twitter already!

Dan Szymborski: Though one bit of bad news for you – I thiink I *did* quote the Dodger McCarthy projection. Still comes out at ERA+ of 94.

Comment From Christian
Have you tried Warlords of Draenor? WoW managed to suck me back in after skipping most of cata and pandaria

Dan Szymborski: I have played it – I actually took it as an excuse to play WOW. There had generally always been another MMO I was playing

Comment From The Dude
Have you ever looked at doing a ZiPS projection for former players in today

Comment From BobbyS
The Nationals have 37 above average MLB starting pitchers right now! That’s not a step back!

Dan Szymborski: I sometimes use ZiPS in abbreviated careers as such, but it’s not really necessary to use a projection just to adjust for league and era

Comment From Dylan
The problem the the Rockies is that they have young talent and an excellent farm. If they traded Tulo now and perhaps CarGo at the deadline/next off season, they could get top prospects or major league talent back and probably hunt for a WC in 2017-2018.

Dan Szymborski: I expect them to squander their farm system in the end. As soon as it look like they’re an 84-win team, Monfort’s going to get all excited and insist the team bring in crappy veterans that were good in 2007.

Comment From Mayonnaise
Which bloggers specialize in predicting “late bloomers”? I’m interested in identifying so-called “busts” or “underachievers” that are still young and predicted to have break-out years.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure anyone has it as a *spcialty*

Comment From The Dude
Have you ever done a ZiPS projection for what former players would do in today’s environment? I’m sure that a lot of regressing would have to be done to build up a library that would take into account shifts in ability levels, but it would interesting to see how guys like Ruth, Gehrig, etc. would be projected for today given the increase in diversity and talent level in today’s game.

Dan Szymborski: As above, I’m not sure that this is really a *ZiPS* thing.

Comment From Christian
Do you think any more major trades happen before Opening Day (3+ WAR player involved being definition for “major”)

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say one more.

Comment From Matt
Still think my Tulo-Xander-Harvey and moving Mookie to SS for a year trade make sense for all of the side. They are all too stubborn though.

Comment From Mad Max
Ignoring whose playing behind them for a minute, how do we feel about the Padres lottery ticket approach to filling the back of the rotation. One of JJ, Morrow or Luetke have to be serviceable right?

Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic that one of them will be OK.

Comment From Guest
Control is the ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to throw the ball exactly where you want it. See: Pitchers with few walks and a lot of home runs.

Dan Szymborski: Pretty much. It’s a subtle difference and it’s not helped that even people that know better will frequently shift the definitions of these a bit here and there.

Comment From Guest
Does Trumbo get traded?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s likely to stay if Tomas works out at 3B, otherwise more likely to be traded.

Comment From The Boat
Here’s a thought – could Havana, Cuba, ever support an MLB team, given free-market reforms and all that?

Dan Szymborski: Ever? Yes. Just not anytime soon.

Dan Szymborski: Latin America is still baseball crazy, moreso than the typical American. But the typical American is essentially *super rich* relatively speaking.

Dan Szymborski: An MLB team in Mexico City or Havana would get a ridiculous amount of interest. And be last in MLB in revenue.

Comment From Guest
It would be interesting if you included TJS history in ZiPs projections/ comps. But that might be more of a PECOTA thing since it is based on Comps.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses comps!

Dan Szymborski: And does take TJ history into consideration, just not with the comps.

Dan Szymborski: Essentially, for a pitcher with Tommy John surgery, ZiPS will first consider him uninjured.

Dan Szymborski: And *then* consider the consequences of Tommy John surgery.

Comment From Walt
Cueto’s agent is using Lester and Scherzer as comps with Scherzer as the closer comparison. Does Cueto get Scherzer money if he repeats last yr’s performance? Does he beat J Zimmerman’s contract?

Dan Szymborski: I think we need to get Scherzer’s final line before we talk about Scherzer money!

Comment From sammy dee
How would you project Souza going forward? Is there a chance he could be better than Myers as soon as 2015? Kiley has stated that larger players tend to develop late, so I’m really hoping he continues to add more game power. We already saw last year that he can certainly hit it far.

Dan Szymborski: I posted the projection on Twitter and in the ZiPS Live! stream we did. ZiPS likes him significantly less than Steamer.

Comment From Walt
would you rather have Cueto or J Zimmerman in next years offseason

Dan Szymborski: Zimmermann.

Comment From Nate
Is it possible to access projections for past seasons? I’m interested in going back and looking at the accuracy of various projection systems but am having trouble finding the pre-season 2014/13/12 etc. data

Dan Szymborski: I will usually send the spreadsheet to people who contact me in email.

Comment From Charles
Could you run percentile chances for teams when the projections are done? It would be fun to see what an 80th percentile Padres look like for a 30%;percentile of an team without a lot of depth.

Comment From Charles
For example is an 60th percentile Padres good enough to be a 35th percentile Dodgers?

Dan Szymborski: I do those for the team projections, generally for ESPN. I essentially first use Monte Carlo simulation with the individual projections to get a distribution of team quality and then run them through their actual schedules using the odds ratio.

Comment From TomW
I’ve been watching for a Mike Morse projection like a hawk and there isn’t one.

Dan Szymborski: OK, hang on.

Dan Szymborski: At 1B, 264/316/440, 106 OPS+ in Miami with -4 D

Comment From mtsw
Since the Orioles don’t seem intent on trying to move any of their guys expiring after 2015 (Chen, Wieters, Norris, Davis) should they be more “all-in” this year? I.e. trade Dylan Bundy or Hunter Harvey for immediate help? Or will they still be able to compete in ’16-’17 even after losing those guys with little-to-no-compensation?

Dan Szymborski: Always depends on the package.l

Comment From The Dude
What player consistently annoys you with how he does in comparison to his projections?

Dan Szymborski: Used to be Kevin Gryboski, but ZiPS is more sophisticated than back then.

Comment From Boss
How would you forecast Rosario in a DH capacity? He made some nice strides last year in terms of plate discipline and a full season out from behind the plate would likely lead to less wear and tear and more ABs. Would be be a solid investment for an AL team or just another Viciedo?

Dan Szymborski: Put it this way, his 271/304/462 Rockies projection is only a 95 OPS+.

Dan Szymborski: Move him to, say, Arizona and his projection becomes 248/282/411.

Comment From exxrox
In a dynasty would you trade G Polanco for S Castro and C Carter? My only “SS” is Flores and I’m set at OF already. Full trade:

Dan Szymborski: I’d want to hold off considering the legal risks.

Comment From The Dude
Do you think we see a bunch of Rays players going to the Dodgers now like we are seeing with former Red Sox players in Chicago?

Dan Szymborski: That frequently happens when GMs move to new organizations.

Dan Szymborski: After all, if a GM working for TB employs Joe Schmoe, it’s likely that he’s still going to like Joe Schmoe when he works in LA.

Dan Szymborski: Though I think it’s more likely to happen with the more marginal role players and minor league veterans.

Comment From Jeremy Losak
How good is Zobrist defensively at each position? I know he can play multiple spots, but how well does he play at each of them?

Dan Szymborski: He’s pretty solid everywhere.

Comment From mtsw
If he hasn’t gotten the right offer by March, does it make sense for Nori Aoki to go back to Japan?

Dan Szymborski: I think so.

Comment From The Dude
Should Jays fans really be annoyed if they don’t sign Cabrera? It’s not like he’s very good.

Dan Szymborski: He can be a solidly average 2B overall. That’s a massive upgrade for them.

Comment From mtsw
Just installed Hearthstone. Any advice for a new player?

Dan Szymborski: Zoo/hunter decks are the easiest, both because you don’t need a lot of rare cards and because they’re very straightforward conceptually.

Dan Szymborski: Warrior control is in a good place right now, but it’s also an expensive deck to put together because it relies on some really big minions/legendaries.

Dan Szymborski: And shield slam and brawl are both epics.

Dan Szymborski: You should probably shell out the dough for Naxxramas if you feel like you’re getting into the game, there are a lot of excellent cards in there.

Comment From mtsw
How do you feel about the branding of “WAR” as a stat? I feel like for whatever reason, a lot of fans get confused into thinking it’s a projection or present/future evaluation rather than a backwards-looking counting stat. Could we avoid confusion if we had given it a different name?

Dan Szymborski: I thin ky ou get into the issue no matter what.

Comment From mtsw
Smarter strategy for a GM to hold onto his job: immediately bottom out to lower expectations going forward (i.e. Epstein at Cubs) or try to immediately compete and then bottom out after hopefully making a nice little run and securing yourself long term fan goodwill (i.e. Preller’s Padres)?

Dan Szymborski: I still think the best strategy for a GM is to build a long-term winner.

Comment From Walt
Reds and Phillies in Marlon Byrd trade that just fell through. If Reds were dealing with a reasonable franchise, what would the Reds be giving up in this scenario?

Dan Szymborski: A B prospect.

Comment From Derek Smalls
Shane Greene or Robbie Ray going forward?

Dan Szymborski: Greene. I’m not a huge Greene fan, but Greene.

Comment From Northsider
MLB finally has a Kang. How long until they get a Kodos?

Dan Szymborski: Abortions for some, miniature American flags for others!

Comment From BobbyS
94 is better than 92! Go, Dodger Blue! Scuttles off to Twitter to find the ZiPS I missed. (To be fair, I’ve been sick and sleeping a lot the last few days!)

Dan Szymborski: Oh, was it 982?

Dan Szymborski: 92?

Comment From mtsw
Does professional baseball disproportionately self-select dumbasses since smarter young players may ruin their eyes by reading in the dark (which may be why pitchers seem smarter on average than position players)?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure if this is a joke question or not.

Dan Szymborski: But reading in the dark doesn’t actually damage your vision.

Dan Szymborski: At most, you’ll give yourself a headache.

Comment From Alex
Padres have inherited a cheaper version of the Dodgers outfield log jam. Who do you think will be moved?

Dan Szymborski: Smith.

Comment From mtsw
Ever see the MLB changing their policy on electronics in the dugout? Having a tablet sponsor a la Surface in the NFL is a money-making opportunity for the league that Joe Girardi’s binder doesn’t give you.

Dan Szymborski: Probably not anytime soon.

Comment From Guest
Mexico City will get a team before Havana. Massive population and there are super rich people(and a ton of poor people)

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Until Mexico City can generate the revenue of an MLB team, we can’t even start thinking about Havana.

Comment From mtsw
Americans stereotype Mexico City as poor, but the city proper has the same GDP per capita as New York, and the whole metro area doesn’t lag that far behind. Mexico City is much wealthier than the rest of Mexico and could probably support an MLB team financially if they could work out the other kinks.

Dan Szymborski: But it doesn’t have the same media revenues, which are super important.

Dan Szymborski: OK a few more and then time to go. Last chance for anything crazy and/or off-topic.

Comment From Alex
2015 all-star game wont be in Baltimore, is Manfred punishing the O’s for involving him in a lawsuit?

Dan Szymborski: Premature without evidence. I wouldn’t put anything past MLB, but that’s a little too conspiracy theory-y.

Comment From Dustin
Buster Olney, in a blog post a few weeks ago, mentioned that the Orioles should really shoot for the stars with Toronto with regards to compensation for Dan Duquette… And he mentioned Strohman, among some other possibilities. Obviously this is not the precedent that has been set, but couldn’t it be argued that a really great GM/President (which it appears clear that Toronto is valuing Duquette as) would be FAR more valuable than any player, making this a realistic thing for Baltimore to look for? I know this sounds crazy. BUT WHAT IF IT’S BRILLIANT.

Dan Szymborski: I would not trade Stroman for Duquette. If Blue Jays actually offered this, I’d be driving over to Baltimore to help DD pack his bags myself.

Comment From John
What is the likelihood of Joe Mauer finishing as a top 10 fantasy 1b in 2015?

Dan Szymborski: Not very good.

Comment From John
Is the hit tool still there for Travis d’Arnaud?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Eminor3rd
I just want you to know that your HOF outrage is the best part of HOF season. By far.

Comment From ZiPs
ZiPs thinks Wainwright is still elite… do you agree?

Comment From TomW
Thanks for the Morse projection, kind sir. *tips late 1800s Top Hat to you*

Comment From mtsw
What stat has a demonstrably predictive power that you are surprised does? Like are there any stats that seem semi-irrelevant but are actually meaningful for unknown or confusing reasons?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not usually super-surprised, but one thing that surprised me is in the opposite direction – how little value ht/wt have in baseball for well, anything.

Comment From John
Who is a better fantasy pitcher Shelby Miller or Jake Odorizzi in 2015??

Dan Szymborski: Miller.

Comment From Daryl
Any chance to see Hart’s line in Pittsburgh?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t run it yet, but meh-minus.

Comment From Happy Fun Ball
O/U on how many years until Havana gets a legit MiLB team? And what level?

Dan Szymborski: 30 AAA.

Comment From Mets Fan
Syndergaard Harvey Wheeler deGrom Montero Matz Etc. Mets rotation is going to be SHUTDOWN.

Dan Szymborski: Unless they mess it up.

Comment From Guest
Mexico City’s GDP per Capita doesn’t take into account the median income, which is much lower due very bad wealth inequality. There are a bunch of very very rich people and very very poor people

Comment From Guest
GotY 2014?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, this wasn’t one of my favorite gaming years. Several games turned out to be disappointing.

Dan Szymborski: Could still be Dragon Age Inquisition, but I’ve only started it.

Comment From Boss
Whats your favorite flavored beer? Recently bought a slew of flavored beers for my dad including pumpkin, grapefuit, toasted coconut, cranberry/ginger shandy, raspberry wheat, bannana/clove. Some were awesome, others less inspiring.

Dan Szymborski: Specific or fruit-wise?

Dan Szymborski: A *specific* beer I’d have to think about, but I tend to like raspberry in beer.

Comment From mtsw
My girlfriend loves old N64 games. Should I get a Wii U so I can play Mario Kart with her or say “screw it” and just get a PS4 so I can play MLB the show?

Dan Szymborski: Emulator! N64 emulators are excellent.

Dan Szymborski: The Show is hard to pass up.

Dan Szymborski: Also, Wii U may be on the way out.

Comment From BobbyS
Abita = yum yum flavory beers. But there are some fantastic craft flavors out there!

Dan Szymborski: The only thing I don’t like is the smoked beers. Tastes like I’m drinking barbecue sauce that was left to sit in the car with the cap off for a month.l

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to shuffle off for another week.

Dan Szymborski: As always, you can find my work at ESPN.com, projections and chats here at FanGraphs and DSzymborski on Twitter. Also, I’m streaming games more and I’m at twitch.tv/zimsmash (been playing some FFVI)

Comment From Boss
Thanks for making it this week, Danny Boy!

Dan Szymborski: I WAS HERE!

Comment From BobbyS
Do you have experience with BBQ sauce left in the car with the cap off for a month?

Dan Szymborski: I have a vivid imagination.

Comment From Boss
Yeah the Raspberry was good. I was dissapointed by the pumpkin, but I’ve heard from Eno it’s hard to find a good one. The Grapefuite beer was delicious but didn’t really taste like beer.