Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/27/15

Dan Szymborski: ! Sorry for being late – my new AC is being installed today instead of back on Friday, so I was talking with the hvac guy and lost track of time

Dan Szymborski: I may have to disappear suddenly if other stuff comes up.

Comment From RotoLando
Having pitchers bat is a great idea!

Dan Szymborski: I’m on the fence – I grew up watching DH and non-DH games

Comment From Marcus Banks
Michael Pineda is the best pitcher in New York City

Dan Szymborski: Liar.

Comment From Minty
Would you trade two of Alex Wood, Descalfalini, Greene, and Chase Anderson for Smyly?

Dan Szymborski: Depends which two. I like Smyly, but not Wood+ like

Comment From Jeff
Time to sell Shane Greene, but for who?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what you get

Comment From hack
AC is for the birds

Dan Szymborski: Birds can’t afford hvac.

Dan Szymborski: AC is for me so that I’m not braising in my own juices in July

Comment From Greg
How concerned are you with McCuthen? Slow start or is that injury really limiting him?

Dan Szymborski: Not really concerned

Comment From Pale Hose
T-4 days until Szymborski answers our questions.

Comment From GSon
For AC here.. we open the window and let the 45 degree air in..

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I’m getting installed now because there won’t be 45 degree air to let in when July comes

Dan Szymborski: Except last weird summer when it got down to the upper 40s for like a week straight in July

Comment From Vslyke
Any thoughts on Shelby Miller thus far? He’s throwing a lot more 2 seamers instead of change-ups.

Dan Szymborski: He’s never displayed a huge repertoire – I think that’s eventually what’s going to limit his upside.

Comment From hack
Quick question about Uehara? is um, he doomed?

Dan Szymborski: If he can’t get velocity back, he may be – he’s not a young guy and as good as his splitter is when its on, he can’t throw that exclusively

Comment From jared
devin mesoraco a drop yet? it looks like he may be done catching for the foreseeable future.

Dan Szymborski: Depends what your other options are. He’ll at least *qualify* at C.

Comment From RotoLando
That Alex Rodriguez feller sure looks good this year.

Comment From Moelicious
Any thoughts on Alex Wood’s missing Ks? The whiffs are gone and hitters aren’t chasing anything outside of the zone. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: While I haven’t looked at his plate discipline numbers, the one start of his I saw this year, it looked like he wasn’t changing speeds at all

Dan Szymborski: That was the game against the Jays

Comment From Aunt Jessie
Rotations fall out of alignment quickly, but could there maybe some sort of advantage to not doing the opening day pitcher thing — not having your ace line up with someone else’s multiple times, potentially wasting good pitching performances?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there’s enough to gain from playing with the alignments due to how quickly they can fall out (and how ineffective it is if you’re not the only onen doing it)

Comment From Jimmy
Waited too long for a SS and now left with WW fodder. ROS rank: Cozart, Flores and Owings

Dan Szymborski: FOC

Comment From vilnius b.
I see ZIPs isn’t buying Rubby DLR’s new low walk rate: 5 walks in four starts. Is it that unusual for a formerly wild guy to find control?

Dan Szymborski: It is, though it does sometimes happen. Walks stabilize quickly, but the influence of past numbers doens’t instantly become 0

Comment From Dave
Jays need to fix this pitching staff asap right? It looks a mess right now and can’t see us contending with it in this state. What should the Jays do? Try and get Hamels and Paplebon?

Dan Szymborski: The problem is I don’t think the Phillies are realistic. Negotiating with the Phillies is a lot like dealing with a five year old.

Dan Szymborski: “You can stay up and watch the game, but yo uhave to do you reading first.”

Dan Szymborski: “I WANT CANDY”

Comment From Finding a closer
Shoulder issues with pitchers can be a tricky. What are the chances that Doolittle doesn’t come back to close either because he is not as effective as Clippard or left handed or both?

Dan Szymborski: Can’t put an exact % on it, but shoulder injuries are very, very frightening for pitchers.

Dan Szymborski: I rather have a pitcher need Tommy John surgery than have a minor shoulder injury.

Comment From Curtis
With the guaranteed contracts the way they are, doesn’t the DH make a lot of sense. The idea of a $200 million pitcher injuring himself while batting or running bases (which won’t happen in one league) just doesn’t make much sense, right?

Dan Szymborski: I do think in the end, the NL will eventually adopt the DH.

Dan Szymborski: I think the point of no return was daily interleague play. It becomes a disadvantage when an NL team has to come up with DHs for scattered intervals rather than a couple week-long stints.

Comment From Steven
If you ignore strikeouts, can Bryant put up comparative numbers to Stanton from this point forward?

Dan Szymborski: If you ignore looks, Natalie Dormer could date me!

Dan Szymborski: More seriously, I don’t think he’s as good a htiter as Stanton,. Let’s not go crazy.

Comment From EC
When is the right time to worry about the Nats?

Dan Szymborski: You should be at least mildly concerned. ZiPS already has the Mets with a slight divisional advantage.

Dan Szymborski: Anyone can beat Usain Bolt with enough of a head start.

Comment From Its almost May!
Any thoughts on Fielder? He’s hitting but has no power – Altuve has twice as many fly balls & 1 more average feet per than Fielder’s 266! Zips says 19 HR’s for the season. What do you say?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be very concerned – hitting 100 points of BABIP above your career numbers isn’t a long-term plan for success.

Comment From Jack Elliott
Without Wainwright can the Cardinals really make the playoffs? No suitable replacement until Garcia comes back and that’s no guarantee he’ll be good.

Dan Szymborski: They can, but it’ll be tougher.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think a Lyons/Cooney/Gonzales blend is all that bad. Not as good as Waino of course, but ZiPS has them at 1.8 WAR if I give them 50/25/25 blend of playing time.

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t change a lot if Gonzalez recovers quickly, ZiPS likes him better, but not *that* much better than the other two.

Comment From Steven
Is Yimi Garcia worth rostering right now?

Dan Szymborski: Yes – at the very least, he’ll give you good non-save/w numbers and he’s the most interesting Jansenternative.

Dan Szymborski: With Jansen, there’s always uncertainty about a pitcher with an injury to any part of his delivery “process.” Unlike what Jansenism tells us, Jansen is not predestined to come back strong *and* keep the job

Comment From Doge
Do you believe in Jimmy Nelson tonight @CIN (he got them last week @MIL) or Shane Greene @MIN later this week. Greene seems like a dangerous play…

Dan Szymborski: I’d go with Nelson

Comment From thoros of myr
chris sale is the best pitcher on earth.

Comment From Kyle
How good would A-Rod have to (very hypothetically) be to get writers to vote for him for MVP? What kind of line would he need?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’d have to get a Triple Crown and hit a walkoff 2 out grandslam in a one-game playoff to determine the AL East champion. And then he’d squeeze out the win

Comment From Julio Pepper
Miggy and Calhoun for Trout?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Silver Lining Slim
At least Wainwright can rest his elbow now.

Comment From Wealistic Wotating Wabbit
So what’s the point of statcast.. showing random context-free numbers on holy shit replays that everybody already recognizes as holy shit plays, making some improvements to gameday/second screen, or actually generating useful data to analyze?

Dan Szymborski: Right now, it’s mostly cool. There’s more work to be done to make it useful. But it’s OK for something to just be cool

Comment From Ron Swanson

Stacked with closers, drop Cody Allen for Yimi Garcia because Yimi Garcia? Drop Heyward for Rusney if already stacked at outfield? Please and thank you.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t drop Heyward for Rusney

Comment From BH
theres nothing wrong with being really annoyed with Kelvin Herrera for being an on-field idiot even if he’s performing well at the moment?

Dan Szymborski: Uh no?

Comment From Curtis
What will the Mets record be after 80 games?

Dan Szymborski: 46-34

Comment From Pale Hose
Margaery: Awesome or Awesomest?

Dan Szymborski: As I said on Twitter last night, while I enjoy my current job, Puppet King to Natalie Dormer is an occupation I would happily switch to.

Comment From Marcus Banks
Is Beltran done?

Dan Szymborski: Not quite toast, but the toaster is hot and the butter is soft and waiting.

Comment From randplaty
Why are teams still running on Derek Norris? He’s throwing out runners left and right.

Dan Szymborski: Well, he’s not usually this good. And he should be throwing out runners center and center given that most are stealing 2nd.

Comment From Julio Pepper
What’s goin’ on with mah man Mookie?

Dan Szymborski: Name the month.

Comment From Jake Peavy
Will I live up to my $24 million contract? If not, how badly will I underperform?

Dan Szymborski: I think you’ll be OK in the end

Comment From Klimt
If you had three billion dollars to buy a team, not to make a profit but to improve baseball in general, which team would you buy (assuming all are available) and what moves would you make first

Dan Szymborski: Orioles of course.

Dan Szymborski: First moves of course depend on what’s going on at the time.

Dan Szymborski: I think my first move would be to have Aussies kick Angelos with a giant boot.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
Re: AC, Where are you located, Dan? I know here in Texas we couldn’t survive without AC.

Dan Szymborski: Ohio. Don’t need the AC today, but I will eventually.

Dan Szymborski: Should be better than my old AC, which is from 1993.

Comment From baltic wolf
A window unit in a pinch is cheaper. In fact we use 3 window units—outdated in most people’s eyes—so that everybody is happy with the temperature setting in their room. Why cool rooms you arent’ using and you can only close so many vents without doing damage to the system.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like walking through super hot areas. And windows aren’t feasible for 2600 sq ft. And they’re ugly as shit.

Comment From RotoLando
Explain J.A. Happ, and tell me he’s good for a two start week against the Rangers and the Astros.

Dan Szymborski: I would never make this prediction.

Comment From Kevin
Now that the Orioles have 3 middle infielders on the DL and Jimmy Paredes is on fire at the plate (for now), do you see Buck maybe spot starting Machado at SS and putting Paredes at 3B and Cabrera at 2B? Wishful thinking maybe, but I’d like to see him try it at short at least once.

Dan Szymborski: I keep thinking they will, but no matter how much it makes sense, they refuse to.

Comment From Steven
Alex Wood or Carrasco?

Dan Szymborski: Carrasco has the more itneresting upside

Comment From randplaty
Is Kemp a different player now? His K% is way down, but so is his power.

Dan Szymborski: I think his line will look normal. He’ll hit mor ehomers, but he’s also going to lose that BABIP – nobody’s a .415 BABIP guy (or whatever it is today)

Comment From Marcus Banks
Mark Teixeira over/under 31 homers this year?

Dan Szymborski: Under

Comment From Marcus Banks
How much more is a single worth than a walk?

Dan Szymborski: A bit – singles have more runner advancement.

Comment From Mike
How much does one TJ surgery cost?

Dan Szymborski: 20K

Dan Szymborski: ?

Dan Szymborski: Supposed to be a question mark

Comment From What is love? Dan dont hurt me
Volquez, is there any way he can keep this up, or is he destined to have a massive regression.

Dan Szymborski: The walks are encouraging. He looks less sucky than he did even last year

Comment From Marcus Banks
How is Rafael Soriano still unemployed?

Dan Szymborski: Demands

Comment From MoVaughn
Thought on j ramirez, time to cut him?

Dan Szymborski: If you like a guy in March and don’t like him in April, you need to have a *very* specific reason.

Dan Szymborski: For instance, an injury or a very specific stat change or him murdering his friend Heimdallr Jones.

Comment From Marcus Banks
The best pitcher in New York City disagrees with you

Dan Szymborski: There is no way you already asked him and got his response

Comment From MoVaughn
what do you think of dropping Choo for Guerrero?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not big on Choo

Dan Szymborski: Guerrero’s tough though – playing time is a numbers game

Dan Szymborski: Uribe’s been tougher to kill off than the writers ever thought.

Comment From Marcus Banks
I don’t think Jose Molina can do it with a mile head start

Comment From Ruben A.
The Angels are really getting swindled for Josh Hamilton, aren’t they? I wouldn’t accept such a bad return for a Ryan Howard

Dan Szymborski: It’s a robbery of their own doing.

Dan Szymborski: Hamilton’s well on the downside of his career, but I’d still give him $12 million *total* in FA

Comment From Greg
How long does batted ball distance take to stabilize? Or is it not a predictive metric from year to year?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t donw ork on this yet.

Comment From Jimmy
Josh Hamilton’s return to Arlington, transform that albatross of a team into a longshot pennant pretender?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Hamilton’s not good enough at this point to make the Rangers into anything they previously weren’t

Dan Szymborski: He’s interesting enough to take at the price, but he’s not really a very good player anymore. We all hope he gets healthy, but it doesn’t change his on-field status of an aging player who never adjusted his approach

Comment From Los
Have to drop one of Josh Harrison, Neil Walker, or Devon Travis. Who is least likely to bite me?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody will take Travis in a trade?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Walker if you’re stuck

Comment From Jack
list any other professions that should wear stirrups.

Dan Szymborski: Cowboys. Mimes. Horse thieves. Rodeo guys. Police because it would look funny.

Comment From mtsw
Are the Orioles making a mistake rostering Jason Garcia? He has potential but is obviously not major league ready. But how much of a difference does the last guy in the bullpen make anyway?

Dan Szymborski: Not a huge msitake if used solely in mopup, but a guy like him is a better fit on a rebuilding team

Comment From Caleb
Do you think the Dodgers resign Greinke (assuming he opts out), or do you think they fill from within/sign another big arm.

Dan Szymborski: I think they sign him

Comment From Reginald Denton III
Thoughts on Adeiny Hechavarria? Seems like he started out hot last year also and quickly cooled off.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, he’ll cool off

Comment From Jack Elliott
Is it possible that Petco’s park factor has only seemed to suppress HRs so much because the Padres lineup has had such a lack of power in recent years? Kemp, Upton, Myers, and Norris could change it this year.

Dan Szymborski: Not really, it’s home vs. road, not a measure of having HR hitters

Comment From Ron Swanson

I am starting to hate Cody Allen…is there reason for my disdain?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t answer your deep-seated psychological questions.

Comment From thoros of myr
jaqen h’ghar is the best pitcher in braavos.

Dan Szymborski: He’s great at changing his look out there.

Dan Szymborski: Though he might be too evasive for managers to like dealing with him

Comment From BH
Just checking. I think Kelvin Herrera has had more suspensions than earned runs allowed this season.

Comment From Guest
What is the absolute least head start you’d need to beat Usain Bolt in a 100m? You have to start with your hands on the ground, just like he does. When the gun goes off, you both start. 90m?

Dan Szymborski: I’m out of shape and it doesn’t take me 9.7 seconds to run 10m.

Dan Szymborski: An average jog is like 25 seconds. If actually running, I’m sure I could do run 100m in 19 seconds.

Comment From Shawn
Ha! next Monday your chat answers can no longer be April!

Dan Szymborski: May be.

Comment From mtsw
Evaluate Steve Pearce. What is he at this point?

Dan Szymborski: A baseball player.

Comment From Carlos Correa
If I continue to perform at AA, how soon will I be promoted to AAA? If at all.

Dan Szymborski: I think you’ll get time at AAA. Astros aren’t going to be desperate to start that clock

Comment From Houzer
Yimi’s got to lock up the 8th once Kenley gets back .. right?

Dan Szymborski: I think so

Comment From Marcus Banks
Towns or Okafor?

Dan Szymborski: For the Wolves, I would imagine Towns athleticism puts him over the top

Dan Szymborski: But I’m not an NBA expert, I’m better with MLB or NFL questions.

Comment From Matt
Other than the MLBPA killing it, why not eliminate the DH and go to 8 man batting orders?

Dan Szymborski: It ruins the 3×3 symmetry!

Comment From Should I drop McCarthy or
H2H– Mookie or Moss?

Dan Szymborski: Rather have Mookie

Comment From mtsw
There should be one day game everyday so people who are bored at work have something to watch on mlb.tv. Change my view.

Dan Szymborski: I am on record saying I hate the frequent lack of day games, especially on Tuesday and Friday, which are the worst for that

Comment From carl
Salty has lost his job, correct? Any chance he gets dealt somewhere else in the NL and gets another shot?

Dan Szymborski: He should – I don’t think he’s the best catcher in the organization.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, before the big trade, I thought Salty was the *third* best catcher in the organizaiton, behind Barnes too

Comment From Jack Elliott
How much longer until Guerrero has a full-time job, in LA or elsewhere?

Dan Szymborski: I think he squeezes out 350 PA this year and is full-time next year

Comment From James Newburg
Lots to like w/Volquez: throwing harder than ever, throwing more strikes, getting more whiffs with his changeup.

Dan Szymborski: And not having command meltdowns

Comment From Todd
Any reason to hang onto Avisail Garcia in a 12 team roto?

Dan Szymborski: He’s a family member and he might get upset?

Comment From zurzles
pujols worth spending a #2 waiver pick on if you already have mcab and goldschmidt? someone gave up on him and i felt the need to take.

Dan Szymborski: Meh.

Comment From Kiko Guy
Can we expect the brewers to trade gomez and lucroy and commit to a rebuild?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll stubbornly stay the course for awhile longer

Comment From RO
Is it strange that I find Demi Lovato to be the prettiest celebrity?

Dan Szymborski: Not my pick, but people have many different tastes.

Comment From Jimme
Soler’s K% so far any cause for alarm? Projections and minor #’s are all in the 24-25% range? Confident he’ll finish in that range? He’s not looking good at the plate as of late…

Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t be super worried

Comment From rustydude
In other words… Art Moreno hung a “Come plunder my team” sign on his franchise.

Dan Szymborski: I think he already did that with the Wells trade.

Comment From Elliott
Findings it harder and harder to maintain my patience with Alexei. I can waiver either Miller or Flores, maintain diligence or cut the ties?

Dan Szymborski: I’d mildly prefer Flores, especially if someone else in your league is interested in Alexei

Comment From Alan
Why is everyone bailing on Shane Greene after one bad start? A week ago, he was everyone’s 2015 Corey Kluber.

Dan Szymborski: He was never mine. Kluber struck out batters.

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, hvac guy again

Comment From Klimt
Will MLB ever expand beyond the US/Canada?

Comment From Justin
Should I try and trade Aoki with the news from Bochy, Maxwell could push him out of a job, or is that just speculation. How does a leadoff guy with a 400. OBP get benched?

Dan Szymborski: oops

Dan Szymborski: First Q – yes. I think as Latin America gets wealthier in the long run, a team will eventually be supportable

Dan Szymborski: Overseas, I think you need faster transportation – it’s a long damn flight.

Dan Szymborski: I do think that MLB should have more weeklong trips to other places – London, Sydney

Dan Szymborski: Tokyo

Dan Szymborski: If transportation doesn’t get a bunch faster, Western Europe better but the flights to Asia/Oceania are *long* to have a team play 81 games there

Comment From Marcus Banks
Will Gregorius ever be good?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be averagish

Comment From mtsw
Think there’s anything to the idea that blue-eyed players might have more extreme day/night splits since blue-eyed people have measurably better night vision in general?

Dan Szymborski: It would be fun to look at

Dan Szymborski: But since I honestly don’t know how much better vision, it’s hard for me to say

Comment From Eric Weinstein
If you’re a Cubs or Pirates fan – what’s the appropriate reaction to Wainwright going down for the year?

Dan Szymborski: Be supportive but secretly happy. A pitcher getting injured is always terrible, no matter if they’re your team’s biggest rivals

Dan Szymborski: Tanaka being injured would help the Orioles, but I don’t want Tanaka to get injured.

Comment From A-Rod
MLB Central is an awful show.

Dan Szymborski: probably cancelled

Dan Szymborski: A couple good episodes, but the Twins are awful and the White Sox Indians disappointing.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, I need to go help the hvac guy with something in th elaundry room so I wil end this abruptly! Presidents and lightning round back next week.

Dan Szymborski: Oops, didn’t end chat!

Dan Szymborski: You guys know my closing spiel