Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/7/15

Dave Cameron: After a three hour live blog last night, I’m back to chat some more this afternoon.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open, and we’ll get started in 15 minutes.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this started.

Comment From Blah
Please convince me that the Pirates aren’t doomed tonight.

Dave Cameron: The Pirates are an excellent team with home field advantage. No matter how good you think Jake Arrieta is, Gerrit Cole isn’t that much worse, and a lot of other advantages go Pittsburgh’s way. This is a toss-up, and I don’t think a real case can be made for either team to be more than a 55/45 favorite even if you skew every possible advantage in one direction.

Comment From Marc
PNC Park will be crazy for the third year in a row. Great time to be a Pirates fan. That being said, do you think the crowd can “get” to Arrieta like it did cueto? or is he more robotic, ice in veins like Madbum?

Dave Cameron: I think players know what to expect now. Arrieta will be ready for the crowd.

Comment From Anthony
You wrote that it doesn’t make as much sense as it normally would for the Cubs or Pirates to treat this as a bullpen game, because they have legit aces. But do you think Hurdle should tell Cole, “no matter what, you’re only going 6 tonight — don’t hold anything back.”?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine that guys like Arrieta and Cole will be so pumped up that they probably don’t need to not hold anything back.

Dave Cameron: Everyone knows that the season is on the line. No one is going to be trying to conserve energy.

Comment From Marc
the key for the Pirates to beat Arrieta will be ______ (and please dont say score more runs… 🙂 )

Dave Cameron: Shut down the Cubs offense. You’re not going to score 5+ tonight, most likely, so if you keep the Cubs to a run or two, you have a chance.

Comment From Q-Ball
The final Baseruns standings show the Nationals finishing ahead of the Cardinals. What do I make of that? If the Nationals had Cardinal’s luck, is that all it would take to make them NL East champs?

Dave Cameron: It’s probably not all luck, but yes, you shouldn’t overreact to the Nationals “terrible year” given that a lot of it was driven by the order of events.

Comment From Phillies113
Will we be getting an analysis of Jeff Nelson’s strike zone for tonight’s wild card game like we got for Cooper yesterday?

Dave Cameron: Yep!

Comment From Q-Ball
When a front office has a “President of Baseball Operations”, and a “GM”, what is the division of labor between them generally?

Dave Cameron: The GM does more of the day to day oversight of small tasks, while the president is more big picture. But with title inflation running rampant in the game, you can basically look at the president job as the old GM title, and the GM is now what an AGM used to be.

Dave Cameron: Two or three minute break; neighbor/Cubs fan is knocking…

Dave Cameron: I guess that was a six minute break; Cubs fan/neighbor is chatty.

Comment From Steve
Excluding this year, which team would you pick as the most likely to win a World Series in the next 10 years?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers

Comment From Zonk
Of course, we’re going to ask you to predict tonight’s WC game. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: My prediction is that anyone who thinks they have identified a clear and obvious favorite is silly.

Comment From Michael
For the sake of argument–since both teams can’t win–should I be rooting for the Pirates or the Cubs if ultimately what I want is the team more likely to take down the Cardinals?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think there’s a difference large enough to believe one or the other is more likely to advance.

Comment From Gary
Anything Yankees could/should have done differently last night? Been more aggressive?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know how much that would have helped. The game basically turned on A-Rod hitting that mistake from Keuchel after Hinch left him in, and he didn’t. That was basically the game.

Comment From The beginnings end
Is tonight going to prove to be the best one game matchup of the entire postseason?

Dave Cameron: It’s the game I’m most excited to watch in a long time

Comment From Ryan
Thoughts on Astros chances against the Royals?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re the better team, but the fact that they don’t get to throw Keuchel in game one and KC has home field evens things out a bit.

Dave Cameron: I’d call that series close to a toss-up too.

Comment From A
Would you be surprised if the Redsox went after Chris Davis and tried to move Hanley?

Dave Cameron: Yes. I’d guess Dombrowski focuses on pitching.

Comment From Seanb1223
You’ve mentioned “sequencing” recently as a way to explain how projections can sometimes be incorrect. We’ve also heard that “clutch” either doesn’t exist or can’t be quantified. Do you see a correlation between the two?

Dave Cameron: It’s two terms for the same thing. In reality, all anyone can really predict is the quantity and type of events a player/team will produce over the course of the year, and the order in which they occur is unknowable. The order matters to win-loss records, though, so it is a significant variable on the final outcome even though it’s essentially randomness.

Comment From Sak
The Cubs can’t hit good pitching. I get that Arrieta deals but I’m not sure where all fhis confidence is coming from. They have the most K’s of any playoff team ever. Pirates win this tonight.

Dave Cameron: That’s a silly and oversimplified view of baseball.

Comment From Josh G
Last year, only one player hit 40 home runs. This year, nine reached that mark, with a couple others falling just short. Do you think this is the start of a trend for a return of power throughout baseball, or just a one year blip?

Dave Cameron: Probably lean more towards a blip, but I do think that the power outage of recent years will eventually go away.

Comment From Jeff
Dave, would be interested in getting your thoughts about a pointless debate a friend and I were having. The Indians finished at 81-80, but were only over .500 for two days throughout the season (on at the beginning of April, one in September). Is it fair to call them a “winning team?” The obvious answer is yes I suppose, but shouldn’t it matter that if you wrote down their record every day, put all of those pieces of paper in a bowl, and drew one, there is a 99.99 whatever percent chance you would get a losing record?

Dave Cameron: No, I don’t see why that would matter. They played 161 games and won 81 of them. They had a winning season. The end.

Comment From Jones
Supposedly getting more athletic in the OF is an offseason priority for the Mariners. How will this look? Any in-house options? Might they just move Cruz to DH or any chance he ends up in left? (Is LF or RF anomalous in Safeco?)

Dave Cameron: Cruz to full time DH, Trumbo to 1B or traded, likely trade for a real center fielder (a guy like Bourjos/Martin, perhaps), and go with Smith in one corner and either Miller/Marte in the other would be my guess.

Comment From Henry
Re: title inflation/GM stuff: So is Beane still going to be the main player personnel decision maker?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Zonk
How surprised are you by the Cubs improvement this year?

Dave Cameron: They played better than I expected, but I picked them to win the NL Central, so I expected them to be good.

Comment From hscer
bad luck gets bad manager fired is fine re Nats

Dave Cameron: He got fired because his players hated him as much as because the team’s record.

Comment From Stuafoo
Every major league team is going to try and hire the person who figures out how to measure _______. Just how much of a statistical arms race is going on behind the scenes?

Dave Cameron: Health is the one that every team wants to solve. The medical guy who figures out how to prevent injuries will write his own check.

Dave Cameron: But there is a huge push towards adding analytics staff this winter. A friend of mine in baseball called this the best off-season ever to be looking for a job in the game.

Dave Cameron: Mostly it’s organizations who fell way behind playing catchup.

Comment From The Average Sports Fan
As a Reds fan, how depressed should I be watching the game tonight and following series vs the Cardinals?

Dave Cameron: Just enjoy a great baseball game.

Comment From Zonk
Both the Astros and Cubs have built power-oriented, but high-strikeout lineups. Has a similar org philosophy driven them both to the same place?

Dave Cameron: This is a pretty standard outcome for analytical teams. Traditional evaluators put a more higher value on contact than numbers-driven analysis.

Comment From Prich
Flooding a South Carolina only issue, or is North getting hit as well?

Dave Cameron: I’m three hours from the coast, so we were never in much jeopardy. But it does like SC got hit much harder.

Comment From Alex
The Royals finished with the best record in the AL, but many don’t seem to believe they’re a favorite to even beat the Astros, much less the Blue Jays. Is it their clutch hitting that is scaring people off?

Dave Cameron: Winning games by clutch performance/sequencing is simply less reliable than winning games by bludgeoning your opponents.

Comment From Alex
How do you evaluate the season of someone like Yordano Ventura, who was bad in the first half and has been very good in the latter half. How much do you discount the first half of the season when predicting his performance in the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: His first half peripherals were fine.

Dave Cameron: The second half was a reminder that ERA isn’t a great way to evaluate a pitcher.

Comment From kevinthecomic
Houston has the 2nd most Ks of any playoff team ever — they won last night, in case you missed it

Dave Cameron: It’s almost like, with league strikeout rates being at an all time high, teams that qualify for the playoffs in 2015 strike out more than teams in the past…

Comment From Q-Ball
As good as the Cubs were this year, do you think they have room for improvement? Should they expect internal improvements from Schwarber, Russell, Soler?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but there’s also room for decline. Arrieta won’t do this again, most likely.

Comment From Vince
Does Estrada get a qualifying offer? If so, does he accept? One chance at a 3 year deal on the open market would seem appealing, hard to turn down.

Dave Cameron: No, they won’t risk it. Bad peripheral/good ERA guys aren’t going to land huge deals.

Comment From Q-Ball
What organizations, in your opinion, fell way behind in analytics and are now catching up?

Dave Cameron: Tigers, Phillies, Marlins to name three.

Dave Cameron: Braves are expanding their analytics department under Coppolella.

Comment From Steve
re: orgs hiring in analytics. Do you think this pushes the salaries for those employees higher?

Dave Cameron: No, there’s still a huge supply of guys who want to work in baseball and have trust funds/rich parents/hoards of cash from their wall st days.

Comment From Ed
Some players seem to think that they hit better when they are playing in the field versus full-time DH. Is there any validity to that?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s evidence for a DH penalty.

Comment From jg
Did Sabean take the prez title so he could “step back and get more into scouting” or whatever he said, or was that just a line of bull?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure the AGMs who get promoted to GM do get more responsibility along with the title bump, so it probably allows the president to be in the office less if they want. But it’s mostly just about giving top lieutenants a raise so that they don’t leave for opportunities elsewhere.

Comment From Ed
Is there any amount of money that a team could offer you that would get you to tell your wife “Honey, pack your bags, we’re moving to ‘X’ so I can work in baseball”. Everybody has their price correct?

Dave Cameron: Well, yeah, sure. At some price point, we could afford for her to quit her job or go very part-time, and she’d trade having me home less for getting more time with the kid.

Dave Cameron: But the reality is that baseball teams don’t need to pay very well, because there are so many people willing to work for little to get their foot in the door.

Comment From Q-Ball
Are there any teams, in your opinion, that are still behind in analytics and not showing much inclination to change?

Dave Cameron: San Diego, probably.

Dave Cameron: Cincinati.

Dave Cameron: A few.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Joey Votto was at the AL game last night. Pretty awesome to see a current star player just be a fan like that. That’s all.

Dave Cameron: Huh, neat.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
RE: injury prevention, do you buy the article at BP suggesting that the Pirates are on to something with more rest days for position players?

Dave Cameron: The idea, yes; I don’t think this is a Pirates-specific idea though. I do think we’ll see teams move away from playing their regulars everyday.

Comment From slew(Seattle)
Correa is still higher than Lindor on the trade value chart despite Lindor’s superior 2015, right? How close does Lindor get? Top 20? 10?

Dave Cameron: Lindor is probably in the 20-30 range. Correa has a much higher offensive ceiling and teams pay more for bats.

Comment From Ryan
Has anyone done any work with Pitcher Abuse Points and predicting injury? It seems like you could sort the list of starting pitchers by PAP in Year 1, divide it into deciles, etc. then examine the number of DL stints for each decile in Year 2, etc.

Dave Cameron: Yes, PAP has been mostly discredited and isn’t used anymore.

Comment From Guest
EVERYONE NO NEED TO WAIT IN THIS CHAT, WE CAN JUST GO TO DAVE’S HOUSE AND GET OUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED!

Dave Cameron: Thankfully, I don’t think it’s that easy to figure out where I live.

Dave Cameron: Kind of fun story from last night, though. Was walking the dog and kid with my wife and stopped to meet the new couple who moved in one street over from us. Guy mentions he moved here to take a job at Hanes, I mention I worked for Hanes previously, and when they ask what I do now, I said I’m a baseball writer. The guy’s response: “of course, you’re Dave Cameron, duh.” So now my wife thinks I’m actually famous. That was fun.

Comment From j6takish
The Astros are a forward thinking analytical organization but chris carter and evan gattis are super not good but got a lot of playing time even after the team was in contention, do they know something about these players we are seeing?

Dave Cameron: They don’t really have anyone better.

Comment From Blerg
Do/Should the Rays make Asdrubal Cabrera a qualfying offer?

Dave Cameron: No

Comment From Eric
Is there any hope for the Yankees future? Their farm system is not very good, and most of their recent free agent signings have turned out poorly. I don’t have any faith that Cashman can turn this around

Dave Cameron: Their farm system is fine, with guys like Severino/Bird close to big league ready and some good talent in the lower minors.

Dave Cameron: Cashman is a good GM. The Yankees will be fine.

Comment From Tom
Yankees going to be happy with the Chase Headley contract going forward?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they basically paid for a league average player, and that’s probably what he is for the next few years.

Comment From slew(Seattle)
RE: Lindor, I get your answer that teams pay more for bats so his trade value reflects what the market wants. You phrasing suggests to me that you think there’s an inefficiency there. How high *should* he be? Thx

Dave Cameron: I do think the market still pays relatively too much for bat-only players, but I think teams are mostly correct to value offense over defense in young players. Defense peaks early, so this may be as good as Lindor gets, while Correa has room to turn into a monster.

Comment From Q-Ball
Why didn’t Jacoby Ellsbury start last night? I don’t follow Yankees that closely, but is that contract looking terrible already?

Dave Cameron: He’s struggled against lefties, Keuchel kills lefties, and they had to sit someone to get Chris Young in there for the platoon advantage.

Comment From Nelson
Ellsbury for Cano. who says no to this trade?

Dave Cameron: Sounds like ownership made it pretty clear to Dipoto that they didn’t want to rebuild, so his job is to find players to put around Cano/Felix/Seager/Cruz, not move them and start over.

Comment From Clint Hurdle
Should I start Josh Harrison or Aramis Ramirez at third tonight?

Dave Cameron: Harrison.

Comment From Dave
Rangers the best possible match-up for Blue Jays?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. The one thing you don’t want to have to do is throw lefties against Toronto, and well, TEX has a lot of lefty SPs.

Comment From Zonk
What does a GM do during the playoffs? Are they already planning for the offseason? There aren’t alot of moves to be made in October….

Dave Cameron: For a team that isn’t in the playoffs, they’re in full on planning mode, laying out a plan to follow over the winter. For a team in the playoffs, it’s mostly watch the games, communicate with the coaching staff, and be nervous.

Comment From Ed
How often do you get recognized around Winston-Salem? Does being on TV increase your celebrity factor or is more name recognition?

Dave Cameron: It’s now happened 2 or 3 times, I think. It’s pretty rare. I’m well aware of the fact that I’m not actually any kind of celebrity, so I always find it funny.

Comment From slew(Seattle)
RE: Trade Value, Do you plan to do an offseason update of your top 50?

Dave Cameron: I do.

Comment From Jaack
You’re next goal as far as being famous is to get someone to ask the British Dave Cameron a saber-y question.

Dave Cameron: Only fair, given how many R-rated questions about pigs I’ve gotten.

Comment From Kevin
Don’t sell yourself short, Dave. You’re famous in the eyes of all us nerds.

Dave Cameron: Even as far as nerd-fame goes, I’m very very small potatoes.

Comment From Hayek
What other pieces would have to be involved to pull off a Puig for Harvey trade this Winter?

Dave Cameron: This is going to be the most popular rumor of the winter, which means it won’t happen.

Dave Cameron: It seems like every time there’s been an “obvious” fit between two teams, it never goes anywhere.

Comment From Kevin
Do you see the Astros making a serious run at any legit free agents? Will they actually be willing to take on a big money contract?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, especially if they beat KC, I think they’ll bump payroll up a bit and try to capitalize on this run. I’d expect them to be in the mix for Heyward.

Comment From Jordan
Very random and dumb question I’ve always had about baseball: why do players take off their batting gloves when the get on base? Is it really that hard to run with gloves on? Will science ever have an answer for us?

Dave Cameron: It’s probably just about the fact that they don’t serve a purpose anymore. The sole point of batting gloves is to reduce the sting of hitting the ball, but once you’re not swinging a bat anymore, you don’t need them.

Comment From Tom
As far as “obvious fits” go, the Cardinals seem to be a team that properly values Jason Heyward’s skill set. 8/175 with an opt out after year 5 enough?

Dave Cameron: I’d bet he gets a bit more.

Dave Cameron: But if he decides to give STL a discount because he likes it there, maybe.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
How long do you think the Pirates contention window is? Closes with Cutch leaving after 2018?

Dave Cameron: Good teams can survive losing a franchise player. It will depend on how many more home grown above average players they can develop.

Dave Cameron: And whether Ray Searage really is a pitching wizard.

Comment From Josh G
Any chance Zack Greinke doesn’t opt out after this season?

Dave Cameron: None.

Comment From Nelson
I hate how people are saying that the Astros and cubs are “1 year ahead of schedule” Maybe ahead of fans expectations, but what schedule exactly?

Dave Cameron: The Cubs were a .500 team by BaseRuns a year ago, with a very young core of talent. Yeah, these comments are silly.

Comment From Larry Bernandez
Would your post-season roster have more pitchers or hitters?

Dave Cameron: In a Wild Card game, I’d probably go 15/10. In the DS/CS/WS, I’d probably go 14/11.

Comment From Sean
What ever happened to your AL MVP ballot article?

Dave Cameron: it got pushed back due to another project that took longer than I had hoped. Will run it next week now, probably.

Dave Cameron: Alright, going to go work on the strike zone instagraphs piece for Jeff Nelson for tonight’s game. Enjoy Cubs/Pirates tonight, everyone; should be a great one.