Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/18/15
| 11:38 |
: It’s Wednesday, so let’s talk some baseball. It’s awards week, so while I can’t talk about the NL Cy Young race too much until after the ballots are announced in ~6 hours, we can talk about all the other awards. Or, we can speculate wildly about what kinds of trades and free agent signings might be coming down the pipeline. Or we can talk about dogs. Up to you.
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| 11:38 |
: The queue is now open, and we’ll get started in 20 minutes.
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| 12:02 |
What would a Jose Fernandez trade to the Red Sox look like? |
| 12:04 |
: Going to write about this in the next few days, but I think people are somewhat overstating Fernandez’s value. It’s three years of a pitcher coming off arm surgery with basically zero chance at a long-term extension. Yeah, he’s a great pitcher when he’s healthy, but right now, you don’t know that he’s 100%, and there’s a decent chance he might not be available for a deep postseason run next year. So if it’s just 3 regular seasons and 2 postseasons, it’s not quite as valuable as people are speculating.
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| 12:05 |
: Really, though, there’s no reason for the Marlins to trade him now, unless they know he’s broken. If they’re reasonably confident he’s healthy, let him throw 100 dominant innings and trade him in July when there aren’t other FA pitchers for teams to sign.
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| 12:05 |
How much influence do you see Williams having in 2016 for the Reds? |
| 12:05 |
: The same as he had last year. That was just a title bump for Jocketty and a way to get the team’s successor some more face time with the media. Jocketty is still in charge.
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| 12:06 |
When Jack Z was around, you were one of the most critical people on his lack of value on outfield defense. What is your take on how Jerry has gone about addressing that? |
| 12:07 |
: I think Leonys Martin is a nice buy-low option, and the kind of defense-first average player that is worth stockpiling, since they’re often undervalued. But I like Wilhelmsen too, and the bullpen was already weak, so it’s not like they got him for free.
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| 12:07 |
Tell Dan to finish the Prospect Evaluation for the Braves. get on it! chop chop! |
| 12:07 |
: You’ll see it Friday.
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| 12:07 |
What percentage of the Kimbrel haul can the Reds reasonable expect for Chapman? |
| 12:08 |
: 50%, at best. Kimbrel had three years of team control, while Chapman has one. And Dombrowski is known for overpaying; there’s no one else out there with that kind of prospect depth that will value them as cheaply as he did.
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| 12:08 |
What do you make of the Shelby Miller trade rumors? Atlanta allegedly wanted Pollock from the DBacks…Could a trade be built around Swanson and a pitcher? |
| 12:08 |
: I wouldn’t give up Pollock or Swanson for Shelby Miller. I think the Braves are smart enough to realize that Miller’s value has peaked.
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| 12:09 |
Thoughts on the Tigers acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez for minor league IF Javier Betancourt? |
| 12:09 |
: I will admit I don’t know anything about Betancourt, but K-Rod seems like the kind of solid/not-too-expensive reliever acquisition that makes sense for the Tigers.
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| 12:09 |
Gut reaction…Are Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran still Braves on opening day? |
| 12:10 |
: One of the two is.
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| 12:10 |
What’s Tyler Clippard’s market? I wouldn’t mind Mets bringing him back on one-year deal. |
| 12:10 |
: I’d bet he gets 2, maybe at $6-$7M per year.
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| 12:10 |
Pompey for Paxton starting point for a trade? |
| 12:10 |
: I don’t think Pompey is significantly better than Martin, who the Mariners just got for a reliever. No reason they’d give up Paxton for a clone.
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| 12:12 |
So, as a Red Sox fan, I’m actually ok with the overpay for Kimbrel. 1) I think a closers value is more than his WAR (thanks Jeff Sullivan), 2) I think there is value in overpaying now rather than waiting to see if the price drops and risk getting outbid, and ultimately with a worse team for it, and 3) I’m tired of dreaming on upside of A and AA guys and settling for last place finishes with the MLB guys. Am I being irrational? |
| 12:13 |
: Yes. You can believe closers are underrated without having to pay an extreme premium to get one. For instance, for the money that Kimbrel will be paid over the next few years, you could have signed Darren O’Day. Do you really believe the marginal difference between Kimbrel and O’Day is worth a top 25 prospect, a top 50-100 prospect, and two extras? Because I think that’s basically an indefensible position.
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| 12:14 |
You said in the podcast about the sox diminishing the value of JBJ and mookie by having one in a corner position. You also said Pedoria is 33 and could be replaced soon. Seeing as both JBJ and mookie are elite gloves, wouldn’t a solution down the road to bring mookie back to second and set up a double play combo for years? |
| 12:14 |
: Realistically, Pedroia is going to be around for another 2-3 years at least, so I think by the time Mookie has played 3-4 years in the OF, moving him back to 2B won’t be on the table.
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| 12:15 |
Think it’s possible Cespedes gets under $100M? Say, 5/$90M? I think that’s only way Mets entertain thought of keeping him. |
| 12:16 |
: Zero chance of that, unless he gets caught with a dead hooker or something.
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| 12:16 |
Let’s say the Mets don’t sign Desmond (I’m calling White Sox). What do they do at SS? Is there some scenario where they just kinda throw what they have out there and hope Cecchinni takes care of things when he arrives? |
| 12:17 |
: My guess would be if they don’t get Desmond they go for Zobrist. I think they’ll bring in a veteran MI, then play Flores/Tejada/Herrera at the other spot.
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| 12:17 |
Dave, thanks as always for your time. Do you believe Gardner, Parra or even Heyward are Nationals bound? |
| 12:17 |
: No. I guessed Will Venable as a 4th OF/Michael Taylor insurance guy in my free agent predictions, and would imagine it will be someone like that.
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| 12:17 |
JBJ a good fit for the Mets? What would be the price? |
| 12:18 |
: They already have that skillset in Lagares.
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| 12:19 |
Kenny Williams said today that the team hasn’t decided if they’re rebuilding, buying, selling, etc. yet. is it normal or just a lack of understanding for a team to be directionless at this point in the offseason? |
| 12:20 |
: They’re probably weighing multiple options. For a team in their position, it’s not a bad idea to evaluate both courses of direction; if you can upgrade reasonably, okay, but if not, and someone wants to blow you away for Sale/Quintana/Abreu, that should be under consideration too.
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| 12:21 |
White Sox have yet to determine their path. If they decided to blow it up (assuming that is an option), how soon could they turn it around? Tease me with the return Sale would fetch from the Dodgers or Red Sox. |
| 12:21 |
: I think I had Sale at like #6 on the trade value list this summer. It would take an insane package. Moncada or Corey Seager would have to be in the deal, and it would be plus other stuff, probably.
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| 12:22 |
Would the Rays get anywhere near fair value for Smyly with the uncertainty of his shoulder? |
| 12:23 |
: Probably not, but that’s also the kind of thing that teams will probably never really forget about either, so even if he throws 100 good innings, teams will still remember “yeah, but he’s pitching with a labrum that never had surgery”
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| 12:23 |
So any chance you guys will nab Ben Lindbergh and (re)nab Jonah Keri now that Grantland is gone? |
| 12:24 |
: I love both of their work, as I’m imagining most FG readers do. But I think we should also be realistic and understand that we’re not the only ones who love their work. They’re both still under contract to ESPN, and when that changes, both will have a lot of suitors.
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| 12:25 |
Have a kid on the way and eventual plans to get a dog. We’ll give the kid a couple months to develop an immune system, but how much would you wait after that? |
| 12:26 |
: We had the dog before the kid, so I can’t really speak from experience, but I’ll say just from a sanity perspective, you might want to wait until the kid is a bit older and you don’t have to worry about sleep deprivation while also trying to take care of a puppy.
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| 12:26 |
In pitcher-for-position player trade proposals, the issue of risk often comes up, and with all else being equal I think everyone would prefer the position player. If that were true though, wouldn’t we see the market reflect that? It seems like the price for pitching is actually higher – in both dollars and prospects – than it is for position players. |
| 12:27 |
: I don’t think that’s true. Look at the extensions signed by elite hitters; they make more than pitchers. Scherzer only broke $200M by taking massive deferrals, but hitters have been over $200M for over a decade.
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| 12:28 |
AJ Cole for Brett Gardner who hangs up first |
| 12:28 |
: The Yankees. I think Cole has lost a lot of shine.
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| 12:29 |
If you were a pitcher, would you rather have a wipeout slider or knee-buckling curve? |
| 12:30 |
: Curve, for sure. Works against hitters from both sides. Slider has a big platoon split.
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| 12:31 |
Who do you think will be the biggest free agent bust? Jordan Zimmermann seems like a prime candidate to me |
| 12:31 |
: My free agent landmines post is coming tomorrow.
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| 12:32 |
What type of player would you say is the equivalent of a late 90s/early 2000s Honda Accord or Toyota Camry; cheap, reliable, plain, and generally a good investment? |
| 12:32 |
: Kyle Hendricks.
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| 12:33 |
Hi Dave! If Chapman gets traded, who do you see closing games for the Reds? Finnegan? |
| 12:33 |
: Jumbo Diaz is probably their most closer-ish reliever, given that he’s huge and throws hard.
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| 12:33 |
: He’s also not very good, though.
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| 12:34 |
The Yankees have so much emphasis on outfield defense that I can’t see them going into next year with Carlos Beltran in right. I know there must be some teams interested especially if the yanks turn him into the same cost as Rios last offseason at 1/10. Maybe the royals? Ranges? |
| 12:35 |
: No reason you can only have three OFs on your roster. Beltran can split time with Hicks.
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| 12:35 |
Thoughts on Brewers return for K-Rod? |
| 12:36 |
: Looks like Kiley had him as a 45 FV, which is about right for what relievers were going for at the deadline.
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| 12:36 |
Could you see the Reds being underwhelmed with their Chapman offers and just carrying him into the season? |
| 12:36 |
: Possible, sure. As long as he stays healthy, he won’t lose much value between now and July.
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| 12:36 |
: But the health risk is a real one.
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| 12:36 |
Would you be in favor of a rule making all HOF ballots public, such as MVP, CY, etc.? |
| 12:36 |
: Yep.
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| 12:37 |
Challenge trade: Taijuan Walker straight up for Jorge Soler. Who says no? I assume Seattle. |
| 12:37 |
: Soler doesn’t seem like Dipoto’s kind of guy, but I’m not sure the Cubs would do that either.
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| 12:37 |
If the White Sox were to trade Sale what teams match up the best for a deal in terms of having the ability to put together a package? |
| 12:38 |
: Still the Red Sox, probably.
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| 12:38 |
Are org philosophies changing? Seems like the Dodgers think Greinke is too expensive. The Yanks aren’t spending huge anymore. The Cards think Heyward will be too expensive. Sounds like everyone is in on the mid level free agents like Gallardo and Zobrist. Are we seeing an unwillingness to hand out huge free agent contracts? |
| 12:38 |
: Right now, teams are posturing. No one wants to tip their hands that they’re going to spend like drunken sailors, but some always do.
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| 12:39 |
I’ve heard criticism that reactions to the Kimbrel trade were “dogmatic” and that many analysts are beating a dead horse when it comes to overpaying for a closer … but isn’t that because the logic still applies? Has anything really changed to make me believe that 60 innings of dominant relief are any more valuable than they were a few years ago? |
| 12:40 |
: It’s certainly possible that our current methods for evaluating relievers understate their value, especially in the postseason. But I don’t think there’s any real argument that the Kimbrel trade was a good use of resources. The Red Sox could have gotten a nearly-as-good reliever for less and used those prospects to acquire help in other areas.
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| 12:40 |
Another Pirates question. If they want to take advantage of McCutchen’s contract. Is it fair value to offer Glasnow, Polanco and Hanson for Gray and Reddick? |
| 12:40 |
: Oakland passes on that, I think.
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| 12:41 |
Think McGee yield is less than Chapman? Logically it shouldn’t be. |
| 12:41 |
: No, it will be more, because of the salary and years of control.
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| 12:41 |
Could the Padres get a better player then Kimbrel for the package of prospects they just received from Boston? If yes, doesn’t that make it a terrible trade for the Sox? |
| 12:41 |
: Yeah, I think if the Padres started shopping that same package around, they could get a quality everyday player or a starter.
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| 12:42 |
Any thoughts on Matt Williams essentially saying he wasn’t given a fair shake by Nationals management? |
| 12:42 |
: He was not cut out for his job. The end.
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| 12:42 |
Would it make sense for the Diamondbacks to sell high on AJ Pollock? He’s an outstanding player, but he’s unlikely to match his production from this year, and the D-backs already have a potential outfield logjam if they’re committed to Yasmany Tomas. |
| 12:42 |
: You don’t trade a +4 WAR player because you’re committed to a replacement level guy.
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| 12:43 |
Guess for where Maeda ends up? |
| 12:43 |
: Everyone’s guessing Arizona. I’ll guess Houston.
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| 12:44 |
If you could make a ballpark guess, how much do you think an R&D Pitching Analyst for the Cubs (or any other team) would make per year? Job was just posted on Instagraphs… |
| 12:44 |
: ~$40K, give or take $10K.
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| 12:44 |
When will we see Price, Greinke to sign? |
| 12:46 |
is the K-Rod return the kind of thing that Melancon could bring in a deal? Melancon obviously better, but also more expensive. |
| 12:46 |
: I’d guess Melancon would bring back more.
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| 12:46 |
Would Strasburg command as much as Kimbrel fetched? |
| 12:46 |
: No. It’s just one year.
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| 12:47 |
Just red August’s blog on the White Sox and how their best option would be by trading Quintana in order to be competitive in 2016. Realistically, who do you think they could get in return? |
| 12:48 |
: Quintana is signed for 5/$40M, including the team options. He’d get what as a FA on a 5 year deal, $100M? $125M? So he’s worth $60 to $85M, something like that. That’s an elite prospect, or two very good ones.
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| 12:48 |
: Speaking of Ben Lindbergh, Nate Silver just announced he’s joining 538.
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| 12:48 |
: Good for him. He’s great.
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| 12:49 |
Sure, you’d have to be a pretty big believer in O’Day continuing to be pretty unhittable almost all on deception, not to mention 6 yrs difference. Kimbrel was prob an overpay but if you’re the Sox you go out and sign O’Day also. |
| 12:50 |
: O’Day has a career ERA- of 54 in 450 innings, while Kimbrel is at 44 in 350 innings. Kimbrel is better, but gap isn’t as big as people think.
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| 12:50 |
: And the idea that teams have unlimited resources is silly.
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| 12:51 |
Zobrist’s UZR was dreadful last year, at both 2B and in LF. Should that be concerning to the teams that are considering him? |
| 12:51 |
: He was playing on a bum knee.
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| 12:51 |
Could you see the Diamondbacks moving David Peralta in search of a pitcher? |
| 12:51 |
: Yes, but I wouldn’t do that if I were them.
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| 12:51 |
Could your Mariners fandom reignite if they prove to have a very competent front office going forward? |
| 12:52 |
: I don’t think so. Maybe it will come back after I retire from baseball writing, but I think as long as this remains my job, fandom of a team isn’t in the cards.
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| 12:52 |
I have this weird thought in my head that you spend your free time from baseball/family/dog just watching Bloomberg news and reading about pork futures, while carefully maintaining your good value used car. Is this true, or are you actually a huge fan of absurd things like base jumping and watching metalocalypse? |
| 12:53 |
: I don’t watch TV, but I do read economics literature and personal finance stuff. I just replaced my ’02 Mazda Protege with a ’15 Mazda6 on Monday, so I no longer have a good value used car. Well, I still do, if anyone wants to buy one.
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| 12:55 |
: I realize that makes me conform to your “this guy is as boring as I thought” belief, but I’d probably be less boring if I didn’t have a 10 month old. Base jumping is a no, but I’d probably be doing a lot more hiking/camping/traveling.
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| 12:55 |
Thoughts on Rasmus taking the QO? Did it make sense for him to accept it? Do you think the Astros would have preferred to get the draft pick? |
| 12:56 |
: Yeah, he’s the right kind of guy to take it. Gets to bet on himself while he’s still young-ish, go back into a terrible FA class next year. Astros probably would have preferred the pick, yes.
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| 12:57 |
Since the sox aren’t utilizing JBJ and mookie the most effectively, how about mookie for sale? I know both teams would hesitate but fun to think on |
| 12:57 |
: I bet Dombrowski would do that. I’m not sure Hahn would.
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| 12:57 |
Do you think the package traded for Kimbrel is good enough to get Ken Giles? |
| 12:57 |
: The package traded for Kimbrel is good enough to get any closer in baseball.
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| 12:58 |
Is David Ortiz a hall of famer? |
| 12:58 |
: He’ll be elected easily. I think his postseason numbers make him a better candidate than just looking at his +48 WAR suggests. I don’t think I’d vote for him while guys like Walker, Edgar, and Raines are on the outside looking in though.
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| 12:59 |
Does the Hardball Times Baseball Annual come out soon? I want to sound smart when my family gets into arguments over baseball this Thanksgiving! |
| 12:59 |
: I believe Swydan said it will be out before then.
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| 12:59 |
As an immunologist, the dog is good for the kid’s immune system. You want to expose your baby to dirt to skew away from allergy. |
| 12:59 |
: Well, then our plan of letting Drew play with all of the dog’s toys is a great one.
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| 1:00 |
: The other day, he was sitting on the back deck with a leaf in his hand, and Liberty just came over and ate it. It was hilarious.
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| 1:00 |
Trade proposal for you.. Appel and D.Fisher for Chapman ! Thoughts on what his return will be ?? |
| 1:00 |
: I don’t think Appel is worth that much right now.
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| 1:00 |
If your the Dbacks who would you offer for Shelby? |
| 1:01 |
: Tomas with AZ paying a good chunk of remaining money.
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| 1:01 |
Why are you so down on Shelby and Teheran? Both are 24 years old, both have 3 full seasons under their belts, over 90 starts each, 600 innings for Julio, 560 for Shelby, 3.36 ERA for Julio, 3.27 ERA for Shelby. They’ve accomplished alot by 24 years old. And still have 3 years and 5 years of control. |
| 1:01 |
: Because ERA isn’t a very good way to evaluate pitchers.
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| 1:02 |
So Kyle Hendricks is a type of player? soft-tossing righty starters are generally a good investment? Vance Worley disagrees. |
| 1:02 |
: I would categorize Hendricks types as “guys with plus change-ups and plus command”, and yes, I think guys like that (think Doug Fister) often have much better careers than expected.
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| 1:03 |
Over/under on Martin being worth 3 WAR total (over the length of the contract) in a Mariners uniform? |
| 1:03 |
: Over
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| 1:03 |
Doesn’t Chris Sale’s slider have little platoon split? Am I wrong or is that the exception since its simply an awesome pitch. |
| 1:04 |
: He has one of the best change-ups in baseball, which is why righties can’t hit him. But there are “sliders” that have low platoon splits because they’re basically thrown like 90 mph splitters. Chris Archer’s slider, for instance.
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| 1:04 |
Seeing as Nellie Cruz is exactly the opposite of the skill set Dipoto covets, could he shock and deal him for pieces to fill out his vision? |
| 1:05 |
: I don’t think ownership would be big fans of him trading present for future given that they’re committed to Cano/Felix and are trying to win before those guys decline too far.
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| 1:06 |
I salute Dipoto’s vision for stockpiling athletic, defense-oriented players for Safeco, yet I worry that this will lead him to overlook value as the most important consideration, regardless of skill set. Valid concern? |
| 1:06 |
: To some extent, I do think teams can get too carried away trying to find a certain type of player rather than just getting a good one.
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| 1:07 |
Will you make your NLCY ballot public? |
| 1:07 |
: Yes, the first part of the post is already in the queue, and I’ll write the rest of it after the chat ends. It will go up whenever the award is announced.
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| 1:08 |
beane or friedman made the kimbrel deal, would you hate it as much as you hate it since dombrowski did it? or would the narrative be “well beane must have known something about those prospects” |
| 1:08 |
: Go look at my reaction to the Billy Butler signing from last year. The idea that we’re just in the tank for the A’s is stupid.
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| 1:09 |
Re: earlier question, right now the existing splits for hitters are liners, flies, and grounders. I’d like to find out how hitters fare on pop ups. |
| 1:09 |
: Pop-ups are outs 99% of the time.
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| 1:10 |
Who says no, Andrew Miller for Strasburg |
| 1:10 |
: The Nats.
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| 1:11 |
Dave, you’ve previously mentioned you’d take Cespedes over Upton. I’m just curious to hear why, as I’d probably rather bet on Upton’s plate discipline keeping his hitting respectable going forward, despite being more limited defensively. |
| 1:11 |
: Cespedes is the better athlete. Athletes age better.
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| 1:12 |
with the QO, if a player accepts, is that it? or can the team negotiate like ok well we really want you ar 2 or 3 years for 10-11 per? |
| 1:12 |
: The player is guaranteed 1/$15.8M once he accepts, but the teams can always rip that up and do a multi-year deal after that if they want. But since the player has $16M guaranteed, you’re not getting them to sign for 2/$20M or something.
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| 1:13 |
I’ll give you Jakes arrieta + for mookie Betts |
| 1:14 |
: I wouldn’t do that if I was Dombrowski, but I bet he’d consider it, given how much he likes aces.
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| 1:14 |
Given two minor league position players with equal wrc+, if one relies heavily on the ability to draw walks and the other relies heavily on the ability to make contact, do you think one of those profiles is more likely to translate to MLB skill, or is value value? |
| 1:14 |
: Contact translates far better than walk rate.
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| 1:15 |
Will Kimbrel be the first reliever offered a QO? |
| 1:15 |
: Chapman will get one next winter.
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| 1:15 |
Can you trade a player who accepted a QO or is there a waiting period? |
| 1:16 |
David Robertson got a QO |
| 1:16 |
: You can’t trade a player who took the QO until June 15th, without his permission.
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| 1:16 |
: Alright, that’s going to do it for me today. Have to go finish my post on the NL Cy Young ballot.
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| 1:17 |
: Thanks for hanging out everyone. We’ll do it again next Wednesday for a pre-Thanksgiving chat.
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
What do you think of the K-Rod trade today?