Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/19/14

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so that means we’re chatting.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open, and we’ll start in a few minutes.

Comment From Bret
What’s next for the Blue Jays?

Dave Cameron: Sounds like probably a reliever. I could see them going after Miller or Robertson, since they’re clearly pushing forward on the short term.

Comment From adam
Do the Jays believe in their pitching enough to justify Martin’s contract?

Dave Cameron: The AL East hasn’t been this weak in a long time. If ever there was a time for every team in the division to go for it, this is it.

Comment From Larry
Even if Staton does extremely well in the next 6 years, wont the Marlins be happy if he opts out, so they wont have to pay 25m/yr for his decline years?

Dave Cameron: Nope. If he opts out, that means his market value > his remaining contract, so opting out means that they lose some value. Opting out is never a positive for a team.

Dave Cameron: That said, I wrote about how the Marlins insured against this with the contract structure. It just went up at Fox: http://www.foxsports.com/ml…

Comment From dan
Can you explain why the A’s signed Butler, and for that long a contract?

Dave Cameron: Not very well, no. The AAV doesn’t surprise me, but I wouldn’t have been interested in going three years for him.

Comment From adam
Are the Cardinals the clear cut favorite in the Central?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Joe
Insta-thoughts on Billy Butler to A’s?

Dave Cameron: Overpay, and a weird one. I know every team is looking for RH power and the A’s had holes at both 1B and DH, but this seems like money that could have been better spent at SS/2B.

Comment From Sam
Why doesn’t the subsequent year international bonus limit deter teams from blowing past their pool?

Dave Cameron: You can land better talent by taking an every-other-year (or every three years) approach, since the penalty doesn’t apply to each additional prospect you sign over the limit. Once you go a little over, you can go a lot over without facing additional penalties beyond the tax. It’s just a terribly designed system.

Comment From Torque (Construction Noise) Lewith
The Red Sox seem to have a very interesting catcher situation brewing; do they keep both Swithart and Vazquez over the long term? Or do they move the former due to Vazquez’s defensive projections?

Dave Cameron: Having two useful catchers is never a real problem, since catchers don’t play more than ~120 games per season, and are probably better off at a 100/60 split.

Comment From Chest Rockwell
The Marlins have zero chance at James Shields, right? It seems like whoever doesn’t get Lester will instead throw that money at Shields.

Dave Cameron: The teams in on Lester are mostly smart enough to realize Shields is pretty overrated. I think he goes to either ARI or MIA, or maybe the Angels.

Comment From eric blair
where do you think (guess) Sandoval and Headley end up?

Dave Cameron: BOS/NYY respectively.

Comment From Here goes nothing
Who is the odd man out in Oakland? Does Butler push Moss to a platoon role (perhaps with Gentry in LF)?

Dave Cameron: I think Butler’s signing probably signifies that they don’t expect Jaso to recover from his concussions enough to be a regular.

Comment From Prich
Before saying NONE, what contract would you be ‘ok’ with your favorite team giving Cruz? 3/24, 2/20, 1/12, etc.?

Dave Cameron: He’d be fine at any of those three. He’s roughly an average player, so he’s probably worth around $12-$13 million or so, and then marginally less for each year added.

Comment From Cicero
The LaStella trade makes no sense to me for either side

Dave Cameron: The Cubs traded assets that were worthless to them for a potentially useful middle infielder. The Braves dumped a low upside guy for the right to sign a few more prospects.

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
Which is more like for the Cards fourth outfielder at this point, trade Bourjos and use Grichuk or keep Bourjos and send Grichuk to AAA?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine Bourjos gets moved.

Comment From internet user
What do you think about the Zach Duke contract? Does the fact there’s something tangible you can point to (changing arm slot) for his breakout make you think what he did last year is sustainable going forward?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, when a pitcher basically reinvents his mechanics, his prior performance gets less useful.

Comment From Nick
Not really a baseball question, but I’m curious about the arrangement you have with Fox for the Just a Bit Outside pieces you guys do. Do they ask you to write on specific topics? Do they pick which FG articles they want to publish?

Dave Cameron: We pick our own topics, within reason. The pieces are written specifically for Fox.

Comment From JD Blue
Should teams regularly use elite SPs on their throw days? If MadBum can go 5 innings/68 pitches in Game 7, why not have top SPs throw 1 inning in between starts?

Dave Cameron: What works for a week or two in October is not the same as what works for six months.

Comment From Not Dave
The new thing appears to be opt outs earlier on in the contract. While I agree this is largely a benefit for the player, it seems like perhaps the owners might offer them with the idea of “you won’t take a 6/107 contract, but what about 13/325 and you can opt out after 6” and bank on the opt out. What is your take on that?

Dave Cameron: The Stanton deal is the first one where the opt-out was combined with a big backloaded deal, which makes it more fair for both sides. Deals like NYY’s with Tanaka are just terrible for the team, since they take all the risk, and the opt-out decision is super easy with a flat payout structure.

Dave Cameron: if you’re going to give an opt out, backload like the Marlins did, or make the player take a big discount in AAV to get the option.

Comment From Orpah Windfriend
Given that offers are coming in for Lester and Pablo, how long will they let those sit before making a decision?

Dave Cameron: I think Sandoval signs this week, but Lester will drag out for a while.

Comment From Kolbe
With the whole league flush with cash does Robertson find “Papelbon” money?

Dave Cameron: I think I predicted 4/40 before the offseason started, and I’ll stick with that, even though prices have been a bit higher than expected.

Comment From Christian
What should the Braves expect in return for Justin Upton?

Dave Cameron: Less than people think. It’s one year of a good-not-great player.

Dave Cameron: He’ll bring back less than Heyward did.

Comment From Logan Davis
So, two of the three obviously terrible Mariners moves (Butler and V-Mart) are out. What’s the new transaction to fear?

Dave Cameron: Long term deal for Nelson Cruz.

Comment From Doug
Do you think the Phillies will lower their demands for Hamels?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Eventually they’ll realize he’s not as valuable as they think.

Comment From SlightlyAwkward
What would you say is the reason that there are much less really good DHs than you’d expect? I’ve heard someone try to make the case that it’s just because offense in general has been down recently but I’d say there are more really good first basemen than guys who generally DH.

Dave Cameron: DHs have traditionally been older players who are still in the league because of their bat but can’t do much else. If we believe that drug testing is cleaning up the game, these are the exact kinds of players that would be hurt most by the lack of access to PEDs, so perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised if there are fewer old sluggers hanging around now.

Comment From Beau
Will any trade for Upton have to include Taijuan?

Dave Cameron: If the Braves could get Taijuan Walker for Justin Upton, they’d have already done that.

Comment From Guest
I’m intrigued by corner OFs who have huge defensive WAR values. Would Heyward and Gordon make good CFers? If they’d be, say, average there, couldn’t an average CF like McCutcheon or Span (whoever) move to LF and have an enormous defensive WAR boost?

Dave Cameron: A huge chunk of Gordon’s defensive rating comes from his arm; that wouldn’t be dramatically more valuable in CF than LF. And the positional adjustment takes care of your hypothesis; the increase in relative ranking is wiped out by the smaller credit given to a corner OF.

Dave Cameron: I know people like to assume defensive metrics are always wrong when they produce results that challenge conventional wisdom, but there’s a ton of data supporting the positional adjustments. Guys do not get huge bonuses by moving to a corner.

Comment From Guest
$35M to Butler is insane, but will be defended by the sabremetric community because it was Beane. True or false?

Dave Cameron: I think it’s $30M, not $35M. The $5 million signing bonus just means he’ll get a lower annual salary in 2015.

Dave Cameron: Also, false.

Comment From Guest
If you were a GM, what is the largest % of your total MLB payroll you could see yourself spending on any individual player?

Dave Cameron: Probably about 40%. If I had Mike Trout, and I thought he was worth $50 million per year but I only had to pay him $35 million, I would have no problem doing so even if my payroll was only $90 million.

Comment From neal
looking at billy butler: why is his projected defensive value so low? seems like it’s double the usual positional adjustment

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that looks like an error. I’ll let Appelman know.,

Comment From Bret
I guess we’ll see if the Orioles end up closing a deal with Markakis, but is he even better than Alejandro de Aza, who would probably be non-tendered if Markakis re-signed?

Dave Cameron: The idea that Nick Markakis is good is the one thing I least understand about this offseason.

Comment From DominionXxX
Will the Tigers OF of Davis, Gose, and a regressed JD Martinez be the worst OF of all time?

Dave Cameron: A couple of years ago, the Twins had something like Michael Cuddyer in center flanked by Jason Kubel and Delmon Young. So no.

Comment From Matt
Does it make any sense for Cubs to move one of their SS this offseason?Capture Baez’s full value?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Baez is at full value after hitting .150 in the big leagues.

Comment From Beau
When will Manfred implement an international draft?

Dave Cameron: Read Kiley McDaniel’s piece on Yoan Moncada that just went up.

Comment From Nick
Seeing reports that the Indians could be interested in swapping Swisher for a different rubbish player on a similarly terrible contract. Do these moves really happen?

Dave Cameron: Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley happened a few years back.

Comment From King Charles
Do you see revisions to the International FA shenanigans coming in the next CBA? It seems like that system could be so much better, and pretty easily.

Dave Cameron: The key will be how set MLB is on a draft. It seems like that is their end goal regardless of the problems it would entail, and other/better options aren’t being considered.

Comment From Guest
Man, a lot of angry Philly fans re: Jeff’s Hamels-to-Boston article.

Dave Cameron: People like to accuse us of overrating prospects, but it’s really the other end of the spectrum; we just don’t think expensive veterans are all that valuable. Cole Hamels is a good pitcher being paid like a good pitcher, and that just doesn’t have as much trade value as people think.

Comment From Guest
I don’t mean to harbor on Mookie Betts, but who is someone the Red Sox WOULD be willing to trade him for? Chris Sale / Jose Quintana?

Dave Cameron: Sale yes, Quintana no.

Comment From Trent
Should the Astros trade Castro? Seeing as they probably wont contend next year.

Dave Cameron: Seems like that’s the likely plan, given the acquisition of Conger.

Comment From Forsyth
Where does Lester wind up? Would he still take a discount (say 6/138 vs 7/150) to stay in Boston?

Dave Cameron: I think he takes the best offer. My guess is he ends up around 7/140.

Comment From Beau
Haven’t heard anything about Gonzalez or Tulo for awhile. Is there actually a chance either get moved?

Dave Cameron: These are the kinds of trades that happen at the winter meetings. I expect Tulo to get moved. Less sure about CarGo.

Comment From Forsyth
I understand that players want years, but why do they take 1 year at a lower AAV? For example, why would a player take 5/100 instead of 4/90. Less work for more money. Seems strange to me. Is it just to mitigate the risk of injury?

Dave Cameron: Big contracts aren’t about maximizing income; they’re about signaling to their peers how respected they are (bigger number = better), and about being able to plan to live in a city for a long period of time. Buy a house, put your kids in school, create a routine.

Comment From Michael Saunders
Where am I going to end up?

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess Atlanta, as part of a Justin Upton trade.

Comment From Peter
With the Cubs losing out on Martin, does a Castro for one of Vazquez/Swihart trade make sense? Boston could move Bogaerts to 3rd where he is probably a better fit and not spend boatloads of money on Sandoval, allowing them to go nuts on pitching. Who says no to that trade?

Dave Cameron: The Red Sox wouldn’t be interested. They want a LH bat at third base, and Castro isn’t their kind of player.

Comment From Logan Davis
What’s all this nonsense about the Mariners having an abundance of young SPs? Their #6 starter is currently Jordan Pries. Moving one of their SPs would just force them to sign a much more expensive but not significantly better one, right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, which is one of the reasons I doubt Walker goes anywhere this winter.

Comment From Dan
Is Brandon McCarthy such a bad fallback to the big 3 Free Agent starters? Id rather have him that 5-6-7 years of Shields, Lester, or Max at $25mm per.

Dave Cameron: Me too.

Comment From Dan M
Can you explain why Mike Trout didn’t get a contract like Stanton’s? Which do you like better for their respective teams?

Dave Cameron: Trout was four years from free agency, not two, so Stanton had more leverage. But there’s no question Trout left a ton of money on the table.

Comment From Chest Rockwell
I haven’t heard any rumors about this at all, but if the Braves are trying to do a quick rebuild, wouldn’t it make sense to trade Kimbrel?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From …….
With the money from the La Stella trade. Could Braves be building up for Yoan Moncada?

Dave Cameron: Any team signing Moncada is going to have to blow their budget out of the water, so all acquiring extra pool values would do is slightly lower the tax they’d have to pay. It wouldn’t make a big difference.

Comment From Jimbo
Why wouldn’t the Phillies try to trade Cliff Lee? Is the injury too scary?

Dave Cameron: They’d have to pay someone to take him right now. Let him pitch a few months of 2015, and then you might be able to dump the whole contract or get a real prospect in return.

Comment From Alan
If you’re Giancarlo and you’ve just signed the dotted line, what is the first thing you buy?

Dave Cameron: The most trusworthy wealth manager I can find.

Comment From Monty?
How did the Phillies go from excellent (five straight division championships) to terrible so quickly? Is it just an example of players getting old and a teams window closing?

Dave Cameron: They constantly borrowed from the future to fund the present. This is what happens when you do that.

Comment From Rollie Blingers
What kind of contract do you think Torii Hunter will receive?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess 1/10, from the Royals.

Comment From Grant
Looking at the Red Sox Steamer projections – it has Rusney Castillo projected for -0.2 WAR. Is this based on some analysis of his mlb/cuban numbers or does Steamer not really know how to handle completely new foreign players like that?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’ just a lack-of-data issue.

Comment From Flushing Flash
Markakis is “good” bc in the era of rising Ks, the ability to hit for high contact rates and still take walks become premium skills. There just are so few corner OFers who can reliably hit for 25 HRs now.

Dave Cameron: Sorry, no, this isn’t true.

Comment From JonCor
Why is LF generally considered a less valuable defensive position than RF? I would think LF would get more balls hit to them, given that the majority of hitters are RH.

Dave Cameron: Fly balls are generally hit to the opposite field, not pulled.

Comment From Tom
Do you think the Cardinals will sign a FA starting pitcher to fill Miller’s spot in the rotation or do you see Carlos Martinez or Marco Gonzales taking the spot?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll bring someone in, either by FA or trade.

Comment From Dr. Mantis T
I’ve heard people suggest that offense is down because the league is cracking down on adderall usage, which helps hitters more than pitchers. Any validity to this?

Dave Cameron: It’s possible, but the strike zone is still the primary reason.

Comment From Mike
IMO, it’s not overrating prospect that’s the problem. It’s the idea that all turn out to be what you expect them to be, when data shows that they have (approximately) a 50% failure rate – even among the top 100. So, if you pick out 4 guys in the top 100, realistically, you should calculate that “surplus value” and cut it in half. Since that is the most likely scenario. But when evaluating, people don’t *typically* do that.

Dave Cameron: Surplus value includes the failure rate.

Dave Cameron: Saying a prospect is worth $30 million accounts for the fact that he’s going to bust a large percentage of the time. When he doesn’t, he’s worth far more than that.

Comment From Flushing Flash
re: Hamels, I see it the other way… you can do all sorts of charts and graphs but trade value is determined by market forces. If the Sox want a TOR starter but want to avoid having to go to a 6th or 7th year and pay 25M per, then they will opt to pay the prospect price for Hamels. And yes, most people here do go way overboard on the value of prospects. People here went apoplectic over the DBacks trade of Matt Davidson for Addison Reed last winter.

Dave Cameron: Because Addison Reed sucks.

Dave Cameron: You’re going to be surprised when Hamels is traded. He won’t return what you’re expecting.

Comment From Mike
To me a lot of the discussion from Jeff’s article is about 2 points: 1) Jon Lester is better than Cole Hamels, to which he did nothing to substantiate and I would disagree, and that 2) Rodriguez is a good return, essentially implying Cole Hamels = Andrew Miller. I don’t agree with what Amaro seems to be wanting, but I think it’s worth more than a reliever with half a season left

Dave Cameron: Eduardo Rodriguez’s value went up substantially after the trade, so that’s a false equivalency. And trade prices are dramatically higher at the deadline than in the offseason.

Comment From Evan
It feels like some of the confusion with the Hamels piece came from an averaging of prospect value, like saying Prospect A is worth $15M as opposed to 10% chance of $150M and 90% of $0M. The $15M feels too high because so often the player gives nothing.

Dave Cameron: But, of course, 10% of $150M is worth $15M. For everyone who doubts that teams put very high valuations on prospects, feel free to explain why teams are lining up to pay $60-$80 million for Yoan Moncada.

Comment From Mike
A lot gets made of when players (pitchers, in particular) sign long contract, and the last 2 years or so will be assumed to be “dead money”. Why doesn’t that factor into the Hamels trade discussions (if he pitches 5 years, they’ll probably only be 1 dead year on the contract) – in terms of Lester/Scherzer getting 6-7-8 years and having 2-3 dead years on the deal?

Dave Cameron: It absolutely does. Hamels shorter term contract is why he has trade value to begin with; if he was on a 7 year deal at the same price, no one would give up anything for him. But having one or two fewer years at the back end of the deal doesn’t make him worth multiple top prospects.

Dave Cameron: (at the same price meaning AAV, not total contract dollars. Hamels at 7/150 has no trade value. Hamels at 5/110 has some.)

Comment From gump
would the phillies get better return on hamels at the trade deadline next year because of increased need? what if we assume he’s healthy and meets his steamer proj?

Dave Cameron: He probably wouldn’t get dramatically less at the deadline next year, but the Phillies would be taking on the risk of him getting hurt or pitching poorly before hand. It’s probably not worth it.

Comment From Guest
Why are teams giving major league deals to guys who are (or at least have been up to this point) minor league talent?

Dave Cameron: MLB restrictions on spending in other areas mean that excess revenues are going to go somewhere. Teams will always find ways to outbid each other.

Comment From GS1
For teams that have money, like the Phillies, would it make more sense for them to eat a large portion of say Hamels contract and receive better assets back? I can’t imagine eating $10M a year is going to sway the Phillies payroll/future moves

Dave Cameron: Yeah. If the Phillies want premium talent in return, they should offer to pay a good sized chunk of Hamels deal.

Comment From David
Would you rather have Hamels at 5/110, or Lester at 7/140? For the 2/30 difference you’re basically gambling that Lester will be a 2 WAR pitcher in years 6/7. That seems likely, but 6 years is a lot of mileage on a pitcher’s arm so the risk is significant. All told, those are fairly equal contracts, yes?

Dave Cameron: I’d rather have Hamels and the shorter commitment, but the gap isn’t huge. Which is why Hamels doesn’t have a ton of trade value.

Comment From Nik
The whole concept of trade value breaks down when you consider things such as supply and demand. Once the FA pitchers are off the board and teams want a top starter prices go up.

Dave Cameron: Sorry, no. You’re implying that a bunch of teams would want to sign the top players at higher prices than they sign for, which isn’t true, or else the players would sign for more money. If a team refuses to top 7/140 for Lester, they’re not going to magically start valuing Hamels as if he’s a 160 million pitcher just because they can’t sign Lester anymore.

Dave Cameron: Teams substitute between the FA and trade markets. If the price in one is too high, they go to the other. They’ll determine which path to take based on which market they think can give them the better return. The trade market doesn’t see a huge surge in prices in January after all the free agents sign, because the free agents signing take buyers out of the picture too.

Dave Cameron: Alright, I’ll end it there.

Dave Cameron: Eno will be here tomorrow, and I’ll be back next week for your pre-Thanksgiving chat.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.