Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/22/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: I have to get my turkey in the brine so we’ll start in a few minutes after I do that.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this thing started.

Zonk: Mashed Potatoes or Sweet Potatoes?

Dave Cameron: I prefer sweet, but we serve both.

Zonk: Which of these ingredients belong, or don’t belong, in stuffing:  Sausage, Apple, Nuts of any kind

Dave Cameron: I’ll happily eat my stuff with any/all of those. I have to make a vegetarian stuffing this year, though.

desertfox9139: Braves penalties come off as a bit harsh?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it’s a coincidence that MLB dropped the hammer this hard right as Ohtani is getting posted.

Dave Cameron: They saw a chance to send a message to other teams to not try anything with him, and they took it.

Q-Ball: We have over 20 people for Thanksgiving, so instead of making 2 turkeys, we started mixing in a Ham.  Some think this is sacriledge.  Are you Pro-Ham for Thanksgiving, or Turkey-Only?

Dave Cameron: I’m a fan of variety. Go nuts with your ham.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: So the Hall of Fame is a cigar club, not a museum, right?

Dave Cameron: Clearly that’s what Joe Morgan wants it to be.

Dave Cameron: I don’t have to make this decision for a few more years, but I will note that, if I was a first-time voter this year, I would be very tempted to just surrender my ballot and tell the HOF I’m not interested in their process.

Bob L: After CHC-CLE World Series, seemed every contender was looking for a versatile shutdown reliever. Boston even tried to remold David Price into Andrew Miller, with some success.

Now that the Astros are champs without a dominant reliever, does the demand swing back to ace starting pitching?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone won the World Series because their relievers were bad.

Dave Cameron: So, no. We’re still marching towards a reliever-heavy postseason.

Q-Ball: What are the consequences to a prospect for knowingly working with a club to circumvent the bonus rules?  Because it seems like it’s only a win for player; don’t get caught, you get more money.  Get caught?  Even better, a free shot at FA.  Shouldn’t there be some accountability on part of players?

Dave Cameron: These kids are not making these calls. They are 14 or 15 when these deals are negotiated, and the buscones who are cutting these deals have effectively taken over their lives.

John: Panik (service time), Shaw and Beede (both not in top 100) for Gordon and Stanton seems like an awful deal right? Couldn’t the Yankees top that with Adams, Mitchell and Estrada?

Dave Cameron: It depends entirely on how much money Miami is picking up.

Dave Cameron: Getting Panik for Stanton and dumping the whole contract would be a win for the Marlins, no matter how lousy the prospects are.

STLFan: If the Cards were to get a Marlins outfielder, would Piscotty just go to the bench? Signed an extension just a year ago.

Dave Cameron: Would guess he’s in the deal if they acquire an OF.

Q-Ball: Is the Brave’s offense not that they broke the rules, but that they were just amazingly brazen about it?

Dave Cameron: To some degree, yes.

Dave Cameron: Not every team does this, but enough do that if they would have not flaunted it, they might have been left alone, or received a lesser penalty.

georgehermanski: Dave, hope you can answer this. No one else seems to be able. Is there anything preventing a team from offering Ohtani  an opt-out after, for example, 2 years? If he is as good as advertised, this would allow him to get the big bucks as soon as if waited until age 25 and was a true free agent. Also

Dave Cameron: Yes, that would be a circumvention of the rules, and MLB would not allow it.

Dave Cameron: No team will be able to alter his first contract in any way. It will have to be a vanilla uniform player contract just like every other amateur signs.

Zonk: What is your take on Wade Davis and his projected contract?  Obviously he’s not a “bargain” or “land mine”, but he should be expensive.  How risky is Wade Davis?

Dave Cameron: I probably wouldn’t pay the price to sign him, but he is legitimately very good, and he probably won’t cripple his next team.

Urooj: Why was the Braves punishment so severe compared to other recent scandals like the Cardinals hacking of the Astros? Is it Manfred trying to set a new tone post-Selig?

Dave Cameron: Chris Correa is in jail.

Dave Cameron: I get that the Cardinals themselves weren’t punished as heavily, but Correa wasn’t the GM and they didn’t have proof it was an organizational decision to exploit the rules. And the guy who perpetrated the crime got arrested.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: A lot of punishments were meted out yesterday. Coppy got banned for life, while the franchise took a major hit on the international side. I wouldn’t think that the owners are all that involved in how the international signings are done, so is Coppy’s ban the strongest deterrent for other GMs to do the shady deals that most or all of them apparently do?

Dave Cameron: The ban is just PR; he was never getting hired by another team again anyway.

Guest: Are you surprised by the lack of activity so far on the FA market?  I understand everyone is waiting to see what happens with Ohtani / Stanton, but it seems odd to me that there has been so little movement up to this point…

Dave Cameron: Yeah, this is weird. I think by this time last year, something like 10 players had signed, and we’d had at least 2-3 major trades.

Chili Dipper: When is a Stanton deal done?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess before the winter meetings.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Was Jake Arrieta anywhere near making your Free Agent Landmines post?

Dave Cameron: He’d have been in the 6-10 range, though I still think he gets less than the crowd thinks.

Tom: Are the former Braves prospects essentially going to be able to double-up on their signing bonuses?

Dave Cameron: No; most teams don’t have enough left to give them huge bonuses, and the Braves went over their signing pool to give nine of those guys bonuses over $1 million.

Dave Cameron: Teams aren’t gong to be walking away from their pre-arranged deals for next July 2 just because these guys are now available. Maybe one or two teams will, but most of these guys are going to get a few hundred grand, I’d bet.

Urooj: Does MLB tell teams to consolidate their transactions to a certain point in the winter to create the most interest? Why isn’t anything happening right now?

Dave Cameron: Ohtani.

Dave Cameron: That’s why the MLBPA was pushing for a shorter posting window.

Dave Cameron: They don’t want teams sitting around waiting for whether a player might or might not be posted, which is what is happening now.

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Do you think Hosmer could get Encarnacion’d? Everyone thinks he’ll get 100+ but how could the bidding “war” escalate that high for not a great player?

Dave Cameron: Nah, Dombrowski won’t let that happen.

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine if Hosmer would sign for under $100 million, Dombrowski would jump on that.

Nick: What team will Giancarlo Stanton play for in 2018?

Dave Cameron: The Giants seem like the safe bet right now.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: With the recent discipline handed down to the Braves, obviously it dampens their long-term outlook, but how far? Like to an Oakland A’s type “some talent around, and some interesting pieces on the farm, but it’s going to take a lot going right to make anything happen” or to a Baltimore Orioles-like “no way in hell they’re contending until a full blowup/rebuild is executed” level?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the loss of lower-level guys, many of whom have seen their stock drop since signing, really hampers their short-term future that much. It takes away some trade chips and hurts a little bit, but Braves fans were already overvaluing how impactful guys like this were, and in reality, they might end up losing one or two big leaguers out of the dozen players.

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Thankful to be here in one more pre-Turkey Day FG chat.  What are the odds we see another team caught and punished for similar transgressions as the Braves under Coppy?  Will this episode scare everybody straight?

Dave Cameron: I would guess teams will now be a lot more careful in how they work these kinds of moves. But they won’t stop entirely.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: If you’re a team like the Dodgers and (apparently) don’t give a rip about being over the tax, assume Trout and Pujols are available like in Jeff’s hypothetical article the other day. What are you willing to give up if you could get Trout, but the only way you could do it is by taking #5 in a package deal, and you’re responsible for all of the financial obligation?

Dave Cameron: Not much. That would put Trout’s cost at something like $210 million for three years, plus LA would have to pay a $105 million in taxes on that money. I love Trout, but I can’t imagine valuing him at $100 million per year…

CT: Favorite Turkey Day side dish?

Dave Cameron: Sweet potatoes.

Urooj: No one cares about your turkey, why even schedule a chat if you’re going to make turket?

Dave Cameron: Thanks for your input, Urooj.

MD: How would a potential signing of Ohtani affect the Yanks’ chances of resetting the tax? Is there room for a Carlos Sanatana type, or will they be working off the scrapheap?

Dave Cameron: Ohtani will cost the league minimum next year, so he’d help them get under the tax.

Joe: Coppy may have been the person making the unethical decisions, but who signed off on the financial aspects?  and why weren’t they punished?

Dave Cameron: Because you can sign $20 million in international prospects without doing it illegally.

Dave Cameron: San Diego’s international spending in the year they went over their bonus pool was like three times Atlanta’s size.

Dave Cameron: But no penalties, because they weren’t caught packaging players.

pepper: So…Joe Morgan says that known steroid users should not be in the Hall of Fame.  Wouldn’t it be much easier for the Hall of Fame to explicitly name the players it believes are cheats and state these guys are not eligible?  Seems a bit more straight-forward to me

Dave Cameron: The Hall of Fame is running by incompetent boobs.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Does the way the MLB is handling the redistribution of Braves prospects seem odd? The most likely teams to sign the players had the braves not been able to sign them were the teams committed to going over the pool anyways, such as the Astros, As, Nats, Padres. The way it’s set up,  those are the teams that can offer the least to the players. If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would point out that the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs were all limited when Maitan was first eligible, but are all able to give him big bucks now…

Dave Cameron: There’s a pretty decent chance that Kevin Maitan is actually terrible.

Dave Cameron: So put your conspiracy hat away.

UncleWeez: Any teams you think will prioritize Maitan over Ohtani?

Dave Cameron: Lol no.

Bobv: Can you sum up exactly what the Braves did to break the rules and flaunt it?

Dave Cameron: They signed an older international prospect, not subject to bonus pools, to an inflated bonus with the understanding his buscone would give the difference to five other players they signed in order to stay under their pool allocation.

Dave Cameron: They also apparently offered a draft pick a car in exchange for taking a lower bonus, and have already setup a package deal with a 14 year old who isn’t eligible to sign for two more years.

Ben: What would you do to fix the international FA system?

Dave Cameron: Let the market tell you what the players are worth.

NL Central: Surely you don’t believe Correa operated in a vacuum?

Dave Cameron: Not about what I believe; about what can be proven.

@Dave Cameron: But since teams can sign against next years bonus pools they could spend some high 6 or 7 figures

Dave Cameron: They already have deals in place for kids who didn’t come to the states, look overweight, and hit terribly in rookie ball.

Peeves the Poltergeist: What is currently the worst contract in baseball? Pujols?

Dave Cameron: Yeah

Urooj sucks: I care about your turkey please only discuss this for the rest of the chat

Jiri: What’s the ranking of Thanksgiving desserts?  Pumpkin pie has to be at the top, right?

Dave Cameron: Pecan pie #1

Dave Cameron: Though my mom makes orange rolls (yeast rolls with orange zest baked into the dough, then orange icing on top) and if we didn’t eat them all before the meal, they’d be considered a dessert and easily win.

pepper: If a team were guilty of an under the table arrangement with Ohtani and MLB found this out, obviously the team gets crucified.  BUT would this make Ohtani a genuine free agent?

Dave Cameron: Based on what MLB just did with the Braves kids, no. They’d just release him back into the bonus pool free agency.

NL Central: It’s been said here by site contributors that 80-100% ofMLB teams were doing what the Braves got busted for. Do you think a team jilted by a prospect signing with the Braves may have dropped a dime?

Dave Cameron: It’s possible.

Dave Cameron: It probably didn’t help that so many people disliked Coppy.

Charlie: There are rumors that Braves definitely went beyond “what everyone else is doing.” Wouldn’t it help MLB’s case to release more specifics if that’s true?

Dave Cameron: MLB’s statement on the punishment explicitly stated what Atlanta did.

John S: seems like the Coppy-era Braves kind of did a shit job of identifying the correct prospects to target in the IFA market.

Dave Cameron: That’s the underrated story here.

Dave Cameron: Go read Eric’s report on these guys.

Dave Cameron: They aren’t flattering.

John: Just FYI…by the end of Thanksgiving weekend last year, Morales, Colon, Dickey, Morton, Reddick, Cecil, and Cashner had signed.  McCann, Valencia, Neshek, Maybin, Segura/Haniger, and Walker/Marte had been traded.  So yeah, this offseason is extremely slow.

Motherfucker Jones: When is it appropriate to listen to Christmas songs?

Dave Cameron: Christmas morning.

NL Central: Nothing like practically death penalty-ing your franchise for the sake of sucky prospects

Dave Cameron: People are really overreacting to the impact this will have on ATL.

Dave Cameron: Lots of teams get nothing from the international markets and still build winning teams.

Dave Cameron: It’s not ideal to lose years of access to a prospect market, but this isn’t the only way to acquire players.

Sam: If you were to speculate, if a team like the Yankees did sign Ohtani, would they be emboldened to then go out and trade for Stanton or sign JD Martinez because they added a pitcher for the minimum?

Dave Cameron: Nah, they’d just accept being under the tax and go all out for Harper next year.

Mike: Does not seem like you think that “the Braves Punishment is in and it’s harsh”

Dave Cameron: It can be a harsh punishment without crippling the franchise.

Ca$hman: Would you rather have Stanton at $295 or Harper at $500?  I think Stanton

Dave Cameron: Depends on opt-outs.

Dave Cameron: You only get Stanton at $295M if he’s broken.

Dave Cameron: If Harper at $500M doesn’t have an opt-out, I’d take that.

NL Central: They’ll have to be spot on with all their other transactions then because when i survey the landscape of great players there is a huge # who are international.

Dave Cameron: Top 10 position players in WAR this year.

Judge (draft)
Altuve (signed for $15K, ATL can still sign these types)
Rendon (draft)
Stanton (draft)
Trout (draft)
Bryant (draft)
Votto (draft)
Ramirez (signed for $50K, ditto Altuve)
Blackmon (draft)
Pham (draft)

Ca$hman: Isn’t an opt out the best case scenario though?  You get him for a few years and skip the decline?

Dave Cameron: No. No. No. No. No.

Dave Cameron: Opt-outs are bad for the team.

Dave Cameron: Always.

Dave Cameron: Players only opt-out if their market value exceeds their remaining salary.

Dave Cameron: In which case, if the player hadn’t opted out, you could trade them for value.

Dave Cameron: Well now I just read your username and have to delete your comment…

Ray Kinsella: What would Stanton’s trade value be without the opt out? Obviously higher than what it is now.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the opt-out is hugely problematic.

Dave Cameron: If he’s good, you’re getting 3/$70M.

Dave Cameron: Which is obviously nice.

Dave Cameron: But it’s not a long-term franchise superstar.

Dave Cameron: And if he’s bad, you’re stuck with 7/$225M after that.

Andy: If a team traded for Stanton, enjoyed his production, then dealt him at the deadline before he opted out, could they recoup enough value to make the initial deal worth it?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the cost to acquire, but you wouldn’t get much for him at the deadline before he opts-out.

P: Jays being a “dark horse” for JD Martinez has to be the darkest of dark horses right? There’s no way that happens right?

Dave Cameron: I could see it. Basically just giving Martinez the money earmarked for a Donaldson extension.

Dave Cameron: And admit OG J.D. is walking.

Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s going to do it for me today.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for chatting, everyone. Enjoy your Thanksgiving tomorrow.

Dave Cameron: FG is taking the holiday off, assuming Jerry Dipoto doesn’t do some weird pre-Thanksgiving trade like last year.

Dave Cameron: But we’ll be back on Monday with more off-season content.