Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 1/14/15

Dave Cameron: Holding the kid so typing one handed. Queue is open and all that.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s do this.

Comment From Chuck
I understand the quick-and-dirty in regards to WAR equivalents for position player (2=Average, 4=all star, etc). Is there a good breakdown for RAR?

Dave Cameron: It depends a bit on the run environment, but the runs to win conversion is around 9-9.5 right now, so just multiply WAR by that and you’ll have RAR for that level.

Comment From jocephus

fangraphs legal dept?

Dave Cameron: Ken Tremendous likes us.

Comment From Chris
Would one find total team WAR by adding total Batting WAR and Pitching WAR? Because it looks like defense WAR is included in the Batting WAR.

Dave Cameron: Correct. It’s more like positional player WAR (found on the batting tab of the leaderboards) and pitcher WAR.

Comment From Colin
Should Larry Walker be in the Hall of Fame?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how big of a Hall you advocate for. He’s clearly better than Jim Rice and others the BBWAA has put in, but clearly worse than a lot of guys still on the outside.

Comment From Robert Hombre
Stephen Vogt’s defensive projection has him at +10 DEF over 450 PAs. You aren’t the Pythoness at Steamer and cannot commune with Apollo the Far-Projecting, but those numbers are a little jarring given his defensive history, are they not?

Dave Cameron: DEF includes the positional adjustment, which is very large for catchers. Basically, anyone who is projected to play catcher is going to have a strongly positive DEF rating.

Comment From Aaron
In WAR, pitchers are safe from BABIP luck affecting their value due to the use of FIP. Batters, however, are greatly affected by BABIP fluctuation in terms of WAR. Is there any way to fix that?

Dave Cameron: Removing BABIP from a pitcher’s WAR isn’t about stripping out luck; it’s about stripping out the effects of a pitcher’s teammates. That isn’t an issue for hitter BABIP, as hitters don’t hit to the same defense every day in the same way that pitchers pitch in front of the same players each time out.

Comment From Nate
Make sure to aim the little guy away from the keyboard. New Mom and Dad still hanging in there?

Dave Cameron: New dad doing better than new mom, since new Dad doesn’t have to feed in the middle of the night.

Comment From Nuke
In terms of K%, at what point do the Cubs look at Baez’s numbers and decide he’s just not ever going to be appreciably better? One more season? 2? 4?

Dave Cameron: Mark Reynolds is still kicking around, so Baez’s K rates won’t ever be the reason a team gives up on him, as long as he hits the ball hard when he does make contact and retains some defensive value.

Comment From Anthony
What’s BBWA’s criteria for changing Hall of Fame rules? If Bonds and Clemens can get over 50% as they approach their 10th year on the ballot, could their supporters change the rules to buy them more time?

Dave Cameron: BBWAA doesn’t make the rules; the HOF does. And the HOF clearly changed the time on the ballot rule to try and make sure Bonds and Clemens don’t get in.

Comment From Greg
Favorite to win the WS as of right now?

Dave Cameron: I’d say the Nationals. Good team with very easy path to the playoffs. Dodgers may be just as good, but division is much tougher.

Comment From The Earl of Baltimore
With DD to Toronto rumors picking up again, what would be reasonable compensation for the Os? It seems that the value of a quality executive is being better recognized today as opposed to 3 years ago when the Red Sox got virtually nothing for Theo. (Or is it just wishful thinking for the Os to acquire a player in the 15-20 range of the Blue Jay prospect lists for DD?)

Dave Cameron: I think the value the Red Sox got for Theo was about right. No executive is really worth a frontline talent.

Comment From Vslyke
Re the FG job posting: is it necessary to have previous paid writing experience or does self-published stuff count as well?

Dave Cameron: Any publishing experience is okay, though people who have written on schedules and worked with editors will likely be given a bit of a boost for that experience. But from your end, there’s zero harm in applying, and at the very least we’ll get a chance to evaluate your stuff for ourselves.

Comment From Doug
Jung-Ho Kang said openly that he can outplay Jordy Mercer. This seems pretty remote, given that Mercer is quietly pretty good. Whatever you think of Kang’s ability, this seems like a terrible thing to say in public ahead of joining a new team.

Dave Cameron: If he didn’t think he could win the starting job, he probably wouldn’t have come over. This is a perfectly natural thing for an athlete to believe.

Comment From Joe
O’s and DBacks a trade match based on Arizona’s OF depth? What would Arizona want for someone like Peralta?

Dave Cameron: Bad players who hate math, probably.

Dave Cameron: It’s kind of amazing that the D’backs managed to find a worse front office than the one they already had.

Comment From Roger Dodger
Most likely landing spots for Scherzer and Shields as of January 14, 2015?

Dave Cameron: STL and MIA are my guesses.

Comment From Scott
Dave, any high velocity guys you see making that next step in the Bigs this year to be a force?

Dave Cameron: I could see Eovaldi having a very good year in NYY.

Comment From carter
Do you envision there being rule changes anytime soon to benefit the hitter?

Dave Cameron: I think MLB will shrink the strike zone soon, yes.

Comment From Justin
Odds that Cole Hamels is a Phillie on opening day? If not, where do you think he’ll end up?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they’ll hold him until the summer and try to market him as the only available ace at that time.

Comment From Sirras One
It shouldn’t matter if a player earns a certain number of wins based on offense or defense, right? In theory, you should be indifferent between a 3 win player who earns value from mostly defense and a 3 win player who earns value from mostly offense, right?

Dave Cameron: If you were 100% certain about the calculations, yes. There’s a little more uncertainty around defensive wins added, so you might slightly prefer the offensive wins given that we’re a bit more sure those happened.

Comment From rk
are our projections vetted for reasonableness at all or would a 18WAR projection for Nick Punto stick?

Dave Cameron: There’s a sanity check in place to throw out ridiculous ones.

Comment From Sir+Nerdlington
Does Nick Franklin get enough leash to rack up 500ABs this year?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. They platoon pretty heavily and he sucks against lefties.

Comment From Nelson
Did the return for Zobrist meet what you were expecting? a top 50 prospect + a couple usable parts?

Dave Cameron: Felt a little light, but not too far off the mark.

Comment From Joel
Let’s say Jarrod Parker starts the year on the DL, and he makes the minimum salary ($515,000 or whatever). Does he get that money, or does he get the minor league salary of ($80,000 or whatever it is?)

Dave Cameron: If you’re on the major league DL, you get major league money.

Comment From Guest
Is there league average BABip by batted ball type somewhere? I want to find BABip by LD%, GB%, FB%, etc.

Dave Cameron: Here’s liners. Use the splits drop down box to pick GB and FB. http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

Comment From Zac
Hey Dave. It’s your high school baseball coach here. I realize now, I should have listened to you more when you were a player. LOL 😉

Dave Cameron: Eh, I didn’t know what I was talking about then. I still might not.

Comment From Skunk
Could Rockies be mystery team in on Shields? If so, smart or dumb?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess zero chance he goes there, and zero reason for them to want him.

Comment From Bill

Dave–looking back at seasons since 1999 on Fangraphs, why is IP trending upward? Change in how IP is recorded with more relief usage? thanks

Dave Cameron: An IP is an IP, regardless of who throws it. I’d guess more extra inning games because of lower scoring environment. Easier to have more ties when scores are bunched closer together.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Your article “On Generational Fandom” was excellent. I never expect to read anything “touching,” but when I read that I did. It was thought-provoking in a way that nothing else on FanGraphs has been.

Dave Cameron: Well, thank you, but I really thought the comments on that post were far better than the article itself. I loved reading people’s stories. That part was awesome.

Comment From Nick
Do you think there’s a limit to how many qualifying offers a team would be willing to give out any given year? I read a piece that claimed that the Nationals would not offer qualifying deals for ALL of Fister/Zimmermann/Desmond/Span/Clippard next offseason due to the risk of too many of them accepting and pushing the Nats way over payroll. Is there any truth to this (potential) phenomenon?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. The first three are obvious declines, and Clippard isn’t anywhere near good enough to justify a QO. Span is really the only one where it would even be a question.

Comment From Plucky
Receiving ability is clearly a valuable skill, but integrating into WAR breaks the zero-sum nature of the measure unless you also make ofsetting modifications to pitcher WAR. To do that in an FIP-based system requires a lot of tough choices- should it be count-dependent or count-independent? Should the effect be league-wide run value, or strictly limited to change in odds of K/BB/HR/ball-in-play. What do you think is the best way to do it?

Dave Cameron: Congratulations, you’ve hit on why we haven’t yet incorporated framing into WAR yet. It’s not just so simple to give the framing runs to the catcher. It’s basically a complete rebuild of pitcher WAR too.

Dave Cameron: There’s no obvious answer, to be honest.

Comment From Prich
In Dave Cameron’s opinion, history shows the most overrated aspect of prospect evaluation is _________, and the most underrated is ______

Dave Cameron: Perceived upside, change-up quality.

Comment From Jesse
If I were a Diamondbacks fan I would be pretty depressed about the direction of my team right about now.

Dave Cameron: It’s hard to imagine a team doing more to alienate the segment of their fanbase that cares about understanding the game. They’re basically marketing themselves solely to casual fans.

Comment From Greg
Interesting article on Moncada. Do you think Tomas could lower his price? Didn’t get anywhere near reported $100 million.

Dave Cameron: Totally different scenario. And, when you include the value of the four year opt-out, his $72 million deal is not that far off what people thought he would get.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Re: MLB shrinking the strike zone. Is that the sort of thing that is announced via public bulletin or something deduced by writers/analysts after closed door conversations with umpires?

Dave Cameron: MLB won’t talk about it, but we can spot trends in where umpires are calling balls and strikes through PITCHF/x data.

Comment From Vil B.
How many years does a pitcher have to exceed performance expectations based on FIP before it’s not accepted as a fluke but as something special the pitcher is doing or a combination of factors are at play (team defense, shifts, etc.)?

Dave Cameron: There’s no line where you should just automatically give a credit 100% of credit for a low BABIP or high LOB%. As the sample gets larger, you give more and more credence to a sustained effect.

Dave Cameron: Really, though, below 500 innings, it’s best to assume that the guy is probably not an outlier.

Comment From Liam
What player(s), in your opinion, are getting shafted the most by the HOF voters?

Dave Cameron: Mussina, Schilling, Bagwell, Piazza.

Comment From JL
From the projections page I took the sum of WAR for all teams at each position. Catcher is projected for 90.1 WAR across the 30 MLB teams while 2B is projected for 60.8. Is this cyclical, or are there certain positions that produce a higher WAR (obviously DH would be less but I am surprised about how significant the delta is between C and 2B)? Would this mean the current crop of C is better than Cs in the past or does it have more to do with replacement level projections at each position? Would love to get your insight!

Dave Cameron: The positional adjustment for catchers in WAR may be too high at the moment, because catchers are hitting better now than they ever have. I’ve written about this before, but if teams are really consciously choosing more offense behind the plate, then the positional adjustment probably needs to be knocked down a little bit, but it’s difficult to know if this is really a systemic change or just a blip.

Comment From Tom
If the Cardinals were to sign Scherzer or trade for Price or Hamels, would that put them in Nationals/Dodgers territory as NL favorites?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably.

Comment From sean
if the strike zone shrinks, what would be the best way of evaluating which pitchers would have the toughest adjustment?

Dave Cameron: Depends on where it shrinks, but if they pull the zone back up after the recent expansion at the bottom, sinkerball guys who attack the bottom of the zone would probably feel it the most.

Comment From Ed
Great gift for your wife…have her pump an extra bottle, and YOU get up and feed the baby in the middle of the night. That full night of sleep for her goes a VERY long way. And you’re so tired you won’t even remember doing it.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s the plan when we get to the point where we introduce the bottle. Pediatrician suggests we wait a little longer though.

Comment From Nate
What are you expecting from Taijuan Walker this year? He is a guy that can take the next step forward to be a Top 20 SP?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he’ll ever be a top 20 starter. I’m much lower on him than most prospect types.

Comment From Greg
Favorite writer to read on fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: Sullivan, on any site.

Comment From Joel
If Iwakuma has the season he had last year (or better), do the M’s offer the QO and would he take it?

Dave Cameron: Easily, and no chance.

Comment From Wally
Zimmermann, Fister, Span, Desmond and CLippard – do the Nats bring any back in 2016?

Dave Cameron: My guess is no.

Comment From Prich
With Zobrist now traded, over/under .5 ‘big’ names moved between now and Spring Training? In other words, will we see at least one?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, if the Tigers end up signing Scherzer and then trading Price.

Comment From Tim
Anything the Red Sox can do to upgrade their pitching staff before the season starts? Their current staff can’t get them past 65 wins can it?

Dave Cameron: They project as one of the best teams in baseball with their current staff, so yes, yes they can.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
I find it insane that so many voters voted for Jack Morris and so few are voting for Moose.. They basically voted for Jack based on 1 start. Do you agree that all votes should be made public?

Dave Cameron: That’s one problem, but it wouldn’t fix anything, really. The whole process needs a total overhaul. The wrong people are voting, and we already know that, even without knowing exactly who voted for who.

Comment From Guest
Are there other FOs that are openly hostile to “analytics” like the Dbacks?

Dave Cameron: Ruben Amaro isn’t an entire front office, but I’m sure he gets along with Dave Stewart quite well.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Is there a certain type of player that you feel WAR over rates?

Dave Cameron: Bad defensive catchers. Ryan Doumit, for instance, was probably not worth anything during most of his days behind the plate, even when he hit okay.

Comment From Timber
You’re the Phillies and trade Hamels to the Padres. They give you a choice of Renfroe, Wisler, or Hedges. Do you take the riskier high upside bat, the mid rotation arm, or the defense first (possibly only) catcher?

Dave Cameron: The bat.

Comment From Jimmers
We all understand WAR on here, but where I think we lose the interest of the “classic/older” baseball minds is calling it WINS above replacement. WAR does not value things like RBI, Runs, Runs Allowed all that much, yet those are the stats that create WINS. I feel as though if it were called TTL (True Talent Level) WAR would become a much more relevant and utilized statistic in the eyes of many (including voters).

Dave Cameron: Actually, those stats have little to do with creating wins.

Comment From Nate
Does Price get $200M+ in free agency next off-season?

Dave Cameron: If he has a strong healthy season, yes.

Comment From Guest
Iwakuma cannot be offered the QO I think.

Dave Cameron: Oh, right. That’s correct.

Comment From Joel
Could you name a front office that you really think highly of, that maybe isn’t an obvious choice like the A’s, Cubs, etc.

Dave Cameron: The Nationals.

Dave Cameron: Rizzo isn’t an analytical guy by nature, but he’s smart enough to realize they add value and has allowed multiple opinions to give them a very balanced view of the game.

Comment From ThePuck
What do you expect from Phil Hughes this season? More of last year, a return to how he performed prior, or somewhere in-between? Does his change in mechanics and approach really mean almost a 2 run improvement in FIP?

Dave Cameron: The answer is almost always in between.

Comment From Guest
When looking at plate discipline metrics, is there a “leader” in Z-Swing% as in is swinging at a high amount of pitches in the zone matter or not swinging? In essence, do you want to have a high Z-Swing%? Seems like it’s more of a metric to look at to explain something than deem a leader/lagger in

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s different for each player. You don’t necessarily want to tell a guy to swing more or less just because a pitch is in the zone. Some guys should swing more than others.

Dave Cameron: If you’re Juan Pierre, the value of making contact is a lot lower than if you’re Giancarlo Stanton.

Dave Cameron: But the type of strikes Pierre is going to see are also different than the type of strikes Stanton is going to see.

Comment From Mike C
What FV would you place on Yoan Lopez?

Dave Cameron: No idea. Kiley said he’s a complete mystery, and Kiley knows better than I do.

Comment From Sirras One
The DBacks have a top 30 front office in all of organized professional baseball. True/false?

Dave Cameron: The St. Paul Saints seem to be pretty well run.

Dave Cameron: So false.

Dave Cameron: (This is hyperbole)

Comment From Nate
Hypothetical: if you were the Cubs’ FO would you rather a)Trade for Hamels and let’s say $25 million in salary relief in exchange for Baez or b)Wait until next offseason and just flat-out sign Price (losing a draft pick)?

Dave Cameron: If the Phillies are picking up $25 million and I don’t have to exercise the fifth year option, then Hamels is 4/$65… I’d take that over signing Price for $175-$200M next winter, even at the cost of Baez.

Comment From Jimmers
The score at the end of the game dictates the WIN. If a players hits .435 over a season with RISP, and drives in 140 runs, WAR doesnt recongnize this, yet those 140 RBIs surely have helped the team win a few games. Also a pitcher can throw a CG, give up 5 runs, walk 5, give up 11 hits and K only 2, if his team scored 12 runs by the 5th, thats well worth a WIN, yet WAR doesnt recognize that.

Dave Cameron: A pitcher pitching badly isn’t worth a win just because his offense scored a lot of runs.

Dave Cameron: I understand that you’re used to the traditional statistics, but they’re worthless and can be discarded.

Comment From The Earl of Baltimore
I’m sure the other 30 GMs (excluding RAJ) had an idea of Dave Stewart’s intellect before yesterday’s comments but shouldn’t they all be calling DS at least twice a day proposing trades?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think there’s any question that AZ has been targeted as a team to try and trade with. b

Comment From That time again
do you think the mets regret settling with cuddyer for left field? there were a plethora of better LF moved this offseason for packages that the mets certainly could have matched

Dave Cameron: They wanted a specific skill – RH power — and it was the most expensive skill on the market this winter. Compared to some of the other RH power hitters, they got a bargain.

Comment From Cole
What player that doesn’t appear to be that good in the analytical world is the most overrated by traditional stats?

Dave Cameron: Any/all bat-only 1B/DH who isn’t actually that great of a hitter anymore. Ryan Howard was the poster boy before everyone figured out that he’s useless. But that’s the mold.

Comment From That time again
what is your take on wellington castillo’s defense? pitch framing numbers are brutal but everything seems to be excellent

Dave Cameron: He’s very good at stopping baserunning and very bad at getting strikes called. Overall, he’s probably okay-ish behind the plate, neither great nor terrible.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Re: “Most Shafted” by HOF voters: Why is Piazza (59 WAR) more shafted than Larry Walker (72 WAR), Trammell (70 WAR), Bonds (162 WAR), not to mention the guys kicked off the ballot (Whitaker, Kevin Brown, etc.)? Seems like theres a lot of shafting going around

Dave Cameron: Catchers play less than other positions due to the demands of the job, so even the best catchers of all time are going to rack up fewer WAR. Have to adjust for that.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch and give the dog some attention, since she’s feeling neglected.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out, everyone.