Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 2/4/15

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat about… James Shields, I guess? Or maybe my get-rid-of-the-draft proposal, which you can read here: http://www.foxsports.com/ml…

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s do this thing.

Comment From Vslyke
Do you think Mike Minor gets dealt at the deadline if he rebounds? He’s older than most of the Braves staff and will be a FA after the 2017 season.

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine pretty much any Brave not named Freeman or Simmons having a good year could be trade bait.

Comment From Kris
Why not lump everyone together and allow the draft picks to be traded among teams while keeping the slot’s in place?

Dave Cameron: If the function of the draft can be replicated without the process of assigning picks — and it can be — then the picks are useless, and come with negative side effects like we saw with Brady Aiken this summer.

Comment From JC
If you were the GM of an average team – i dunno, White Sox – what would your international signing strategy be? Would you go for the Moncadas? Would you try to avoid the overage penalties?

Dave Cameron: It probably depends on your owner’s cash position. If your team can afford a $40 million check in 30 days, I’d probably take a shot at signing him. Few teams can, though.

Comment From lionel messi
Who do you see signing for more money, Moncada (counting the tax penalties) or James Shields?

Dave Cameron: Moncada. I think the bonus pushes $50 million, which will make the total cost of signing him near $100M.

Comment From MetsFaithful5
If Wright posts a 5.5-7 war season (so a rebound season; his other worst year- 2011, he also played with an injury)in 2015; Are the Mets an 86+ win team?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so.

Comment From Guest
Cuban pitchers easier to evaluate than hitters?

Dave Cameron: It’s a good question. Stuff is easier to evaluate than offensive skills, so I’d think the answer might be yes, but lots of speculation there.

Comment From greg
The get-rid-of-the-draft proposal is really fun to think about, but how resistant to it do you think the MLBPA would be? Does MLB have anything they could offer up as a concession in negotiations or would something like this just be out of the question to the union, no ifs ands or buts?

Dave Cameron: I think MLBPA would be for most any proposal that limited spending on non-union players. This proposal would do exactly that.

Comment From Hamburglar
Any good food suggestions in the NC triangle region?

Dave Cameron: There’s a ton of great food in Durham. I haven’t been, but I’ve heard good things about Poole’s Diner in Raleigh.

Comment From Guest
Do you envision a realistic scenario where Milwaukee decides to part with Carlos Gomez by the end of the season?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Phillies113
If you’re San Diego, which option is more appealing: giving up prospects to get Cole Hamels, or signing James Shields for 4/$80m? Does your answer change depending on how much, if any, money the Phillies kick in towards Hamels’ salary?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably just sign Shields, given Amaro’s reported asking price. But if he’d pay Hamels deal down enough, there’s a point at which Hamels makes more sense.

Comment From Sam
For how many years would you forfeit the entire draft if it meant a guaranteed and immediate World Series victory?

Dave Cameron: 5-10.

Comment From kevinthecomic
Get rid of the draft! Limit pitcher changes to 4 per game! It’s ‘THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX WEEK’!!!!!

Dave Cameron: It’s “there’s nothing happening in baseball so I have time to publish all my crazy thoughts” week.

Comment From Nelson
If Bartolo Colon was a FA, would he get 1/10 this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Maybe something slightly less.

Comment From Bruce
Is there a direct correlation between runs scored and time of game?

Dave Cameron: Kind of, but not really. I wrote about this at JABO last week, actually.

Comment From Shawn
I really like your get rid of the draft idea, any way it would ever happen?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think so. The draft system has all kinds of historical traction, and people are comfortable with what they know.

Comment From 1979,2014 and 2015?
What piece would you add to the current Mariner’s roster that would give them a decisive advantage to win the AL West?

Dave Cameron: Mike Trout.

Comment From Larry A
When is the FG Phoenix trip this year, and how can fans meetup with you all?

Dave Cameron: Early March. We’ll probably tweet out which parks we’re going to while we’re in town for those who want to come say hi.

Comment From Emmett
Say the Dodgers sign Moncada. What do they do with him positionally? He can’t stick at short according to scouts, and the likely solution is moving him to 3rd, but Seager already occupies that slot for them, or will in the near future.

Dave Cameron: There are few worse uses of time than worrying about positional logjams 2-3 years down the line.

Comment From nunez
Reasonable projection for Blake Swihart in the majors?

Dave Cameron: 85 wRC+

Comment From Joe
can you make a case to not sign Yoan Moncada?

Dave Cameron: Sure.

Dave Cameron: It goes something like this: “You want $40 million in cash next month. I don’t have that. Pass.”

Comment From Larry A
What do you do while rocking the baby to sleep at 4am? TV, work, stare into the darkness…?

Dave Cameron: The boy is actually sleeping like a champ. We’re super lucky.

Comment From mtsw
At what dollar value does it make sense for James Shields to take a one year contract and punt his search for a huge deal to 2016?

Dave Cameron: $30 million.

Comment From AA
If I have say as little payroll left to shore up the Jays as rumored, would you still be in favour of signing Shields to a backloaded deal especially with certain players such as Buerhle coming off the books next season?

Dave Cameron: Yes, but it sounds like he doesn’t want to go there.

Comment From Nick
Under your theoretical proposal, a guy like Moncada is going get what kind of bonus? Nothing close to what he’s getting under the current system, right? And that’s an improvement how?

Dave Cameron: My guess is he’d get ~$10 million or so, as the largest pool allocation to any team would be ~$20 million, and a good chunk of that would have gone to domestic players last summer. And it’s an improvement because the team with $10 million left to spend wouldn’t be a high revenue club who can afford to buy talent at will.

Dave Cameron: NYY/BOS/LAD/etc… already have huge structural advantages in place. No reason to allow those advantages to carry over to the one place where the rules are supposed to push talent towards lower revenue clubs.

Comment From AA
How would you say the Jays’ rotation matches up to the other teams in the AL East, I like the balance between experience, youth and upside but I am worried about depth.

Dave Cameron: I don’t like the Jays young arms as much as most Jays fans do. I think they’re an arm or two short.

Comment From Pennsy
Does Clippard’s elite popup production, playing in the Coliseum, give him a chance of becoming a top-level closer for the A’s?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. The park will get him a few more foul outs, but won’t turn him into Aroldis Chapman or anything.

Comment From Harry
People have said Moncada is a 1:1 pick type of talent. Any idea where he might land on a top-100 prospect list? Is he instantly the best prospect in most systems?

Dave Cameron: Ben Badler slotted him in the 5-15 range, putting him as similar to Corey Seager.

Comment From Harry
What is the deal with the red sox prospects? They always seem to have so much hype and then they get traded for basically nothing (middlebrooks, ranaudo, webster, de la rosa, etc.)

Dave Cameron: Webster and de la Rosa were traded for a +3 WAR starter with three years of club control.

Dave Cameron: Renaudo got hurt. Middlebrooks was overhyped.

Comment From Guest
I like reading about draft alternatives — thanks for the interesting piece! I’m not sure that your approach disincentivizes spending any more than the current system does, but I’m generally opposed to any system that caps spending either functionally or by rule. Why not simply base allocations on recent past MLB performance in order to ensure that this system is about competitive balance but also in order to not disincentivize expenditure on labor? Could even consider more than simply the previous year’s record.

Dave Cameron: I see zero reason to reward losing.

Dave Cameron: There are few sillier things than the Cubs, Phillies, or Dodgers getting a high draft pick because they hired an incompetent boob to run their team into the ground.

Comment From Doug
To Hamburglar – The Pit in Raleigh has awesome barbeque.

Comment From Guest
Kris Bryant or Manny Machado? Is it even close?

Dave Cameron: I’d have taken Machado easily before the two knee surgeries.

Dave Cameron: Now, it’s not so clear.

Comment From J
Do you think it’s the Pads that will nab Shields?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so.

Comment From Harry
Is there any situation where the Red Sox trade Pedroia and benefit? I know we aren’t supposed to read the comment section, but I see that proposal not infrequently. Sure, he’s coming off a down year, but it’s still gold glove defense and a decent bat.

Dave Cameron: He’s not going anywhere.

Comment From Mack
Regarding your proposed amateur talent acquisition makeover, would you agree with a provision that allows teams to deduct salary paid to players while they were on the DL from their “payroll” as it relates to bonus pools? E.g., should Prince Fielder count for $8 million or $24 million against the 2014 Rangers since he missed four months?

Dave Cameron: That’s kind of interesting. So a team that is wrecked by injuries doesn’t get entirely screwed. I kind of like it.

Comment From Josh I
How likely do you think it is that the A’s sign at least one of Moncada/Fernandez/Ibanez/Olivera?

Dave Cameron: I’d put them at 0.1% on Moncada, but maybe they have a shot at one of the cheaper options.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
If Joey Gallo would be a Andrelton Simmons level defender at SS, would he be in the majors by now?

Dave Cameron: He’d be an All-Star.

Comment From Hugo Z
Braves would have no obvious motive for trading Teheran or Markakis this year.

Dave Cameron: The motive for trading Markakis is obvious: they come to their senses and realize that was silly.

Comment From TKDC
What’s the baseball equivalent of taking a pound or two of air pressure out of a football?

Dave Cameron: Corking the bat?

Comment From Tucker
Who signs Moncada, one of Dodgers/Red Sox/Yankees or the field?

Dave Cameron: One of those three.

Comment From ar
so what happens if you are a big market team with bad contracts,… it’s a vicious cycle and you are bad for decades because you can never get cheap talent.

Dave Cameron: You include a provision that released players don’t count against your salary calculation for the bonus pool. So, the Phillies could just cut Ryan Howard and immediately lower their calculated payroll, even though they’d still owe him the $. Would have the benefit of getting dead money contracts out of negative situations.

Comment From Tucker
What is your favorite place to attend a baseball game?

Dave Cameron: Camden Yards when it’s not humid.

Comment From Conor
How mad should top high school prospects be if Moncada gets a $40 million signing bonus?

Dave Cameron: No more mad than Moncada should be after Yasmany Tomas got $70 million in guaranteed money.

Dave Cameron: The various systems in place are inequitable.

Comment From Robert
Are late-winter signings like James Shields a new market inefficiency? Would it be prudent for a club to hold onto their cash until February?

Dave Cameron: FA shopping in February is the equivalence of shopping at a clearance rack. You’ll get a good deal on something with legitimate issues.

Comment From Shawn
In general you seem to be way lower on some of the hyped prospects/young MLBers than others? Anyone you are higher on than most (besides Mookie)?

Dave Cameron: In general, I’m low on high velocity/bad command pitchers and bat-only position players, while I’m higher on command pitchers with great change-ups and jack-of-all-trades players who have no standout tool.

Comment From TB
Assuming the QO situation goes away with the next CBA, is there another mechanism that could/should be implemented to achieve the idea for which the QO ostensibly designed? Should we care about compensation for departing FAs to begin with?

Dave Cameron: The QO was designed to hold down free agent prices. If MLB was transparent about that, they could just levy an actual tax on the top x% of free agent signings.

Comment From Shawn
Will there be a Saber Seminar in Boston this year?

Dave Cameron: Yes, and I’ll be there.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
How much should Team defense be taken into consideration when evaluating a team as opposed to individual defensive stats? Because having 3 rangy infielders can be A LOT better than having 1 elite defender, yet the stats can look similar over all

Dave Cameron: Prove it.

Comment From lionel messi
Then any team out of the race would make up injuries for their most expensive players. That seems like it would be fairly easy to exploit.

Dave Cameron: Players aren’t going to go along with fake injuries.

Comment From GSon
Knowing the strengths & weaknesses of each parent team, would the Nationals and Indians consider trading, one for one, Fancisco Lindor for Lucas Giolito?

Dave Cameron: I think the Nationals would, Indians wouldn’t.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Finish this sentence: Runs and RBIs are a good stat for ____________________________________________.

Dave Cameron: The 1800s.

Comment From Conor
Regarding the draft proposal, if a team like the Patriots (youngest ever to win a championship) were to win in baseball, they’d also very likely have one of the lowest salaries due to baseball’s arbitration. So, this hypothetical team would be heavy favorites for the next few years while having the most financial power to develop prospects.

Dave Cameron: So you mean the system would reward a team for being really good at their job instead of being really bad at it? I’m okay with that.

Comment From Matt
In regards to eliminating the draft, what would prevent the the big market teams from just outbidding everyone like they will for Moncada? I can only think that ownership wouldn’t be pleased if you spent $80M on a player that failed and tighten the purse strings. But teams like the Yankees can STILL spend an incredible amount like they are currently doing internationally.

Dave Cameron: My proposal has firm caps tied to the pool allocations.

Comment From Nate
Just out of curiosity…what were your thoughts on the Aiken/Nix/Astros situation last summer? Think the Astros truly acting in bad faith? Because it seems more like a tough luck situation to me with Aiken…and Nix just got caught in no mans land from there

Dave Cameron: We don’t know enough to have strong opinions. The Astros have had so many situations that make them appear to be deficient in personal relations, however, that it’s becoming difficult to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Comment From Guest
Where does the 100% tax on a Moncada signing go?

Dave Cameron: Into a fund run by the commissioner’s office. It’s a problem, because the fund was not designed to hold this kind of money, and it’s not clear exactly what is going to happen to it.

Comment From bearproof
Any chance we see a team in Vancouver or Portland in the next 20 years?

Dave Cameron: Doubtful.

Comment From Guest
Finish this sentence: ice cream and cookies are a good food for ____________________________________.

Dave Cameron: Pablo Sandoval.

Comment From Catoblepas
You’ve talked a lot about the different value of players in different markets (mid-season and offseason FA, draft, international, etc.). Any chance of an omnibus post/series, laying out what defined markets you see and how the value of a win varies between them?

Dave Cameron: That’s a good idea.

Comment From mtsw
Does the rush of analytics-friendly writers to leap out and defend Pete Carroll’s playcall that resulted in costing his team 85% win probability in one play indicate that maybe the analytics community is too invested in counter-intuitive and against-the-grain thinking?

Dave Cameron: Nope. It means that evaluating a decision by its results is still stupid.

Comment From Jobu-Cerranos Locker
Regarding the Bryant/Machado question. Is that because Machado’s defense is so good, or your’re down on Bryant? Thoughts on Bryant?

Dave Cameron: If he’s more of a meh third baseman or an okay outfielder, and he’s going to have problems making contact, his upside is more above average/good player than superstar. I think there’s a pretty decent chance he’s more Chris Davis than Miguel Cabrera.

Comment From Snarfle
Funny, I hadn’t thought to question this until now. Why a 100% tax on going over the bonus? I suppose it’s to reign in the big spenders, but in this case it excludes everyone except them.

Dave Cameron: It was supposed to act like a de facto cap, until teams ran the numbers and realized that it was worth paying the tax.

Comment From Catoblepas
Would you support expansion? There was a post on THT talking about the ratio of teams to population and pointing out that the number of teams has stagnated in the past couple decades. Do you think the game needs to expand? There has to be an upper limit at some point, right?

Dave Cameron: I’ve long been in favor of putting a team in Brooklyn.

Comment From David
Aren’t teams already punished/rewarded for being bad/good at their jobs by losing or winning in the regular season? Why does the draft need to further punish expensive & bad teams while further rewarding cheap & good teams?

Dave Cameron: I’d flip the question around. Why should we ever reward a team with significant financial resources for squandering them?

Comment From Kimball
Rob Neyer linked to your article from last year about the Griffey/Cameron trade, in which you suggest that new analytics will enable us to critique today’s trades similarly in 20 years. Do you really think it’s possible that today’s evaluations are similarly as far off the mark?

Dave Cameron: Some of them, probably.

Dave Cameron: Not to the same level as before, though.

Dave Cameron: But I wouldn’t be shocked if we looked back in 20 years and were far better able to identify that Pitcher X had clear warning signs that he was about to blow out his elbow, and Team Y shouldn’t have traded for him given the risks.

Comment From JayT
You would need to add two teams though, right? Where would you put the second?

Dave Cameron: That is less obvious.

Comment From Kimball
Nothing in your proposal would shift any money toward the younger players which, as you’ve suggested elsewhere, isn’t likely to ever gain traction because they don’t (really) have a representative at the table. Doesn’t this seem unfair, particularly for young pitchers? Is there any way to address it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I was actually just thinking this morning that there should be a different league minimum salary for pitchers and position players. Pitchers have shorter careers, and many of the best pitchers don’t even survive to the mark at which salaries begin to escalate quickly. Given the risks that they face that position players do not, pitchers probably deserve to make significantly more than hitters early in their careers.

Comment From mtsw
Easy solution to where to place 2nd expansion team: 2 teams in Brooklyn.

Comment From Dan
In your article, trying draft bonus pools to MLB payroll seems slightly unfair. Its my understanding that the Cubs (for example) are not allowed to operate with a 40 million dollar payroll. They HAVE to spend a percentage of revenue.

Dave Cameron: Everyone does.

Comment From dom
if the climate in west coast MLB cities is bad for offense, why is the PCL so hitter friendly?

Dave Cameron: The PCL parks that are super friendly are mostly at altitude: Salt Lake, Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, etc…

Comment From L. Scott
What about Carolina? They have teams in the other 3 major sports and the area is booming.

Dave Cameron: The hockey and basketball teams aren’t particularly well supported.

Dave Cameron: But yes, Raleigh or Charlotte would be in the conversation.

Comment From GSon
Montreal?

Dave Cameron: I’d think MLB should get back to Montreal some day. I’m not sure how close we are to that day, though.

Comment From Guest
Nashville before Charlotte any day

Comment From Tucker
Nashville seems like a not-so-bad spot as well. Preds and Titans seem to have very strong local support.

Comment From Doug
Seems like Nashville would be an ideal place to see a game, then go listen to some good music afterwards.

Dave Cameron: The pro-Nashville lobby is out in force.

Comment From Guest
The biggest geographical area w/o an MLB team is clearly the upper midwest/great basin. Billings Buffalo anyone?

Dave Cameron: North Dakota Frackings.

Comment From Catoblepas
Havana or Mexico City!

Dave Cameron: Putting an MLB team in Cuba would be kind of amazing.

Comment From Colby
Do you think the mlb would adopt a pay structure where players get a base salary then X amount per war or some other type of incentive based pay?

Dave Cameron: No. The only incentives allowed are playing time based, not performance based.

Comment From Guest
the Havana Missiles

Dave Cameron: I laughed.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch. Thanks for hanging out everyone.