Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 4/14/16

Dave Cameron: Thanks for joining me on a Thursday this week. Spent a lot of time flying back to NC yesterday, so thanks to Eno for filling in.

Dave Cameron: Now we see if the Thursday crowd is any different!

Gary Gorr: How did you enjoy your time in Toronto and at Pitch Talks?

Dave Cameron: Pitch Talks was great. One of the most fun baseball events I’ve been to, and excited to be part of a bunch more this summer. If you have a chance to go to one, you definitely need to do so. They’re a blast. Toronto itself was also great, but a bit cold. Try to be warmer, Canada.

John: Is it possible to trade for a coach? I feel like teams would part with pretty high level prospects for Ray Searage

Dave Cameron: Yes, it happens, but rarely. Lou Piniella was traded, for instance. Usually it’s more of a guy-wants-to-leave situation, though, and the team gets compensation for letting him out of his contract. I don’t think teams could or would trade a coach against his will. And Searage doesn’t want to leave Pittsburgh.

Nate: Are there any teams besides the Padres that could use Sandoval? Or is this just a bad deal all around?

Dave Cameron: The Phillies should be willing to take on some of his salary if Boston will send some prospects along as well. They could play Pablo at 1B, let him try to rebuild some value. It’s not like they’re getting anything useful out of Howard or Ruf.

T-Dawg: How did you feel about getting fired as head coach of the Ottawa Senators? http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/25551585/ottawa-senators-fire-head-coach-dave-cameron

Dave Cameron: I was in over my head. Excited that now I can just focus on running FanGraphs and England.

Mike: Dave, what was your favorite thing in Toronto?

Dave Cameron: Meeting some really great folks. Lots of fun both nights. Also, the lemon pistachio toffee I got from Soma Chocolates was pretty great.

Joe: So, time to admit you were totally wrong about the Orioles!??!?!!!1111!? Kidding, but does this hot start change your opinion about them at all for this year?

Dave Cameron: Not really. The fact that they’re off to a hot start gives them a better chance of hanging around the race longer, but I still see them as the worst team in that division.

Jacob: O/U 30 more games until Panda is either DFA’d or otherwise outside the Red Sox organization?

Dave Cameron: Over. All it takes is one injury for them to suddenly have PAs for him again.

j6takish: Giancarlos opt out : At first thought it seems like a no brainer…but he will be 31 opening day of 2021 with 7/208 left on his contract with no deferrals and no tax in Florida. A lot can happen in 4 years, but if he remains an excellent but not elite player with durability issues, he stays…..maybe? Loria’s head would probably explode

Dave Cameron: Probably depends on the knees. If he’s starting to break down and looks like a DH-in-the-making, he won’t do better than 7/$208M. But if he can still play the field, opting out could be on the table.

Turbo: Are there lessons to be learned from the Schwarber injury about throwing novice defenders into the outfield?

Dave Cameron: Not really. Guys get hurt. But this probably ends any chance he had of sticking behind the plate, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cubs traded him before he played another game for them. He probably should end up as a 1B.

Cecil Fielder: Why has everyone been referring to the Red Sox moves as “Dombrowski doing this or that” instead of Mike hazen? is hazen just a puppet?

Dave Cameron: Not a puppet, but the GM that reports to a president of baseball operations now is not that different from an Assistant GM that reported to a GM. It’s just title inflation.

Jonathan: What current grades would you give Thor’s individual pitches & command? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: I’m not a scout, but I don’t see how you don’t just give him 80s at this point. The stuff is as good as anyone alive.

Mike_C: I know its early, but how are the Braves’ front office going to convince fans to come out to their shiny new stadium next year with this kind of product on the field.

Dave Cameron: Well the product should get better.

Mc Hammer: When do you think the pitch talks will sell out? I really want to go but cant afford tickets until I get paid next thursday

Dave Cameron: The Wilbur seats 1,500. You should be okay!

Q-Ball: It looks like your “worst contracts” piece is getting some new candidates in this year. Pedro Sandoval, Hector Olivera, maybe Yasmany Tomas…

Dave Cameron: Well, those deals weren’t so large that they have a ton of dead money remaining, because there’s only $50-$75M left on most of those. But certainly, there have been a lot of busts in the mid-market hitter market lately.

Zonk: As if to support August’s article on the Cubs, they walked 10 times last night, as Reds pitchers threw 188 pitches. Is running up pitch counts a new thing clubs are going to try to exploit?

Dave Cameron: Actually, I think taking pitches to run up pitch counts is somewhat going out of style. Now that bullpens are so crazy and everyone has a few guys throwing 100, the idea of getting to the bullpen isn’t as appealing.

Zonk: Will the Twins be the first non-rebuilding team to fall out of it this year? 0 and 8, with Perkins on the DL…not a good start for them!

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they may have to pull the plug on trying to win this year earlier than they hoped. Buxton just doesn’t look like a big leaguer yet, and they have a lot of holes. They just aren’t very good.

EB: Hi Dave! So are Carlos Gomez’s best days behind him, or do you think he’ll turn it around? He’s been amazingly bad up to this point, and it’s not like Houston doesn’t have better options.

Dave Cameron: I do wonder about his health. The fact that the Mets pulled the plug on their trade with him and that he’s been terrible since Milwaukee traded him might not be coincidences.

Sean Price : Do you think the White Sox made a mistake in not seeking out an upgrade over Rollins at short and whatever bum they are going to play at DH? So far it looks like Rollins is a replacement level player and Garcia is on his way to the land of Domonic Brown. As a Sox fan it’s really frustrating to see them improve in some areas and then hope that risky players like these don’t suck, especially when a player like Ian Desmond was available for a cheapish price.

Dave Cameron: I mean, if we’re going to overreact to two week performances, Desmond is sucking eggs in Texas too.

Dave Cameron: Rollins is a good enough stop gap for now.

Maddoning: Should someone be interested in Michael Morse? Where do you think is a good fit?

Dave Cameron: I could see the White Sox picking him up again.

Gregor: Noah Syndergaard! Dave, I’d love your opinion on what we’ve seen from him this far. I’m not even a Mets fan and I cant remember being this excited about a pitcher. He looks like the Cy Young favorite to me

Dave Cameron: Well Clayton Kershaw is still alive, so I don’t know about Cy Young favorite, but certainly, he looks like a dominant force. Hard to not get excited about him.

Chris: Is there a plan for after the show in Boston? Like a meetup at a nearby bar or something? Just bought tickets. Can’t wait!

Dave Cameron: We’ll very likely do a FG Meetup the next night, like we just did in Toronto. So the schedules will probably be something like Pitch Talks on Thursday/Meetup on Friday.

JDogg: so what do you think it would take for someone to get Rusney away from Boston right now?

Dave Cameron: Take on ~80% of the contract.

Q-Ball: We told you so Cleveland: Indians are struggling to score runs, and the biggest culprits are their OF’ers and their combined 29 OPS+.

Dave Cameron: Their decision to run with this group is just inexplicable.

Ritt Momney: Espinosa/Drew’s sub par output is pretty much where we expected it so far – how long until the Nats pull the trigger on Turner?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine they’d like to wait until May.

Dave Cameron: If the team keeps winning, they won’t be in a hurry.

Mark: More impressive in the Cubs’ start so far- the lineup performing at or above expectations despite a key injury, or the largely no-name bullpen pitching lights out? #April

Dave Cameron: Their bullpen is so underrated. Warren, Grimm, Strop, Rondon are all excellent, and Wood/Cahill were excellent in relief after getting converted. There was never any real reason to be worried about that group.

wassup: what’s going on with Tulo? Think he’ll recover, or is this AL East with a spicy spice of regression?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s breaking down physically. I don’t think we’ll ever see the MVP-level Tulo again. He can still play short and hit enough to be a useful piece, but he’s probably more average to above average now than a real star.

Wallace Wrightwood: Between the 0-8 start and the loss of Inciarte, Winkler, and Olivera, how long before the Braves start selling Markakis, Teheran, etc.?

Dave Cameron: I could see Markakis going this summer, but I’m not sure Teheran is good enough for them to justify selling him at this point.

Cecil Fielder: will there be booze at the pitch talks? would love to sip a beer whilst listening to Jonah keri

Dave Cameron: Yes, the events are intentionally held in locations with bars. The crowd was pretty buzzed in Toronto!

Crunchy Black: Do you think Eugenio Suarez can settle in as an above average 3b or will he fall off?

Dave Cameron: I’m not sure he’ll be a star with his approach, but he looks like a solid average player to me.

Jack Conness: Will you ever do a Pitch Talks in another city? Chicago? Milwaukee?

Dave Cameron: Yes, there are plenty more Pitch Talks announcements coming. Chicago is on the list.

Nelson: Do you think MLB will ever do something if the trend continues and relievers essentially become unhittable?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if velocity keeps trending up like this, at some point MLB will have to think about lowering the mound again, or shrinking the strike zone, or something to give hitters a bit of an edge.

Jerry: How does the Schwarber injury affect your outlook on the Cubs this year?

Dave Cameron: Takes away a little bit of depth, but not a huge blow. Didn’t think he was that much better than Soler to begin with.

Bettor: If you were a betting man, which team off to a slow start would you start betting on- Mets or Dodgers?

Dave Cameron: Both of them. They’re both good.

Ernie Camacho: Which do you think is more likely for Profar: getting traded or starting 3B or SS next year for the Rangers?

Dave Cameron: Traded.

Mike_C: Can a team offer a qualifying offer to a player who uses his player option to opt out?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Josh: What do you expect Texas to do with Mazara once Choo returns?

Dave Cameron: If he hits, he’ll stay. Desmond and Deshields could share CF, and Choo doesn’t need to play against lefties.

michael: hey dave, saw you at pitch talks last week, you were hilarious. i absolutely loved the pujols reference. please come back…..Buxton or Conforto?

Dave Cameron: Well, thanks! I’ll take Conforto. I’ve never been sold on the Buxton hype, and he doesn’t look close to big league ready at this point.

DJ: Noah Syndergaards a prospect (not totally insane as he not yet 24) with his CURRENT tool kit… how would he rank as an all-time pitching prospect?

Dave Cameron: Strasburg-esque. Maybe still behind Prior, but up there.

David: Dave, I know you’re probably going to say it’s only April. But Buxton cant make contact, cant walk, what gives, man?

Dave Cameron: He’s just not ready. Doesn’t mean he can’t develop, but he needs time in the minor leagues to figure out a better approach. Right now, he swings at balls and takes strikes. It’s a bad combination.

Foz: Where did you end up eating in Toronto?

Dave Cameron: Made it to Bahn Mi Boys and Wurst, both of which were good.

Ronnie: If you could have the career (regular & postseason performance/accolades, earnings to date/guaranteed into the future) of Clayton Kershaw or Madison Bumgarner, who would you choose?

Dave Cameron: I feel like I’m supposed to say Bumgarner, since he has the rings, but I might take Kershaw.

Adam: kang sucked in his first couple weeks, ppl need to relax on Park, no?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, no need to give up on someone this early.

Nighthawk: How much trouble can a team get into for a putting a player on the DL when he isn’t actually hurt? Is there even a punishment? Its seems like the Red Sox putting Panda on the DL is more about just getting him away from the clubhouse.

Dave Cameron: Every team does this all the time. There’s no way to prove a guy isn’t hurt.

J: You do realize the Os are trying to take back their projection beating title to torture you right?

Dave Cameron: An Orioles-Royals ALCS would be fun times in my Twitter mentions.

mtsw: Speaking of teams that should change plans due to the first 8 games: should the Orioles push the pedal down on going after James Shields now that their hot start has made a playoff appearence a lot more realistic? What would be a realistic trade that gets him there?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think he has much trade value, so if they took the whole contract, probably wouldn’t cost a lot of talent to get him. But I’d probably wait until June or July to see how long this could last.

Gary Gorr: Do you think by season’s end that Aaron Sanchez is viewed as the ace versus Marcus Stroman?

Dave Cameron: No.

J: Could you argue Syndergaard is as valuable as Correa?

Dave Cameron: Pitcher attrition is too high for that to be the case, but he’s probably on the verge of passing Sale as the most valuable pitcher in baseball.

Mike: Why have chats if the only answers are “its been two weeks”? Not trying to be an ass, but why not just say chats will start when we can give more productive answers?

Dave Cameron: Because we’re allowed to chat about things besides overreactions to small samples?

mtsw: Have you (or anyone on the staff) read “Analyzing Baseball Statistics with R” http://amzn.com/1466570229 I was thinking of picking it up and wanted to know how valid the stuff inside was.

Dave Cameron: It’s very good. Definitely worth your time.

Adrian: Best hitter on the Oakland A’s?

Dave Cameron: Josh Reddick.

Jeff: What is different about Noah Syndergaard today compared to what he was 2 season ago?

Dave Cameron: Well his slider is now as fast as his fastball used to be. He’s basically added 5 mph to his already top-shelf stuff.

Sean: Do you know of future locations for Pitch Talks? Or can you not say?

Dave Cameron: I know and shouldn’t say until they’re announced, but the announcements are coming soon.

e: The Indians didn’t even need to make a huge splash this offseason to help the outfield. Plenty of avg veterans were available for fair contracts.

Dave Cameron: Yep. I just don’t get it.

Paul : I dont see the cubs trading Schwarber. Theo LOVES that kid and has been saying since he joined the Org he thinks he is as good a hitter as Bryant.

Dave Cameron: That’s nice and all, but they don’t have a spot for him.

gary meadows: Who, in your opinion, is the best relief pitcher in baseball? One guy, one inning, pure dominance.

Dave Cameron: Chapman

e: What else could MLB do about the increasing velocity issue? Are mound and strike zone size their only options?

Dave Cameron: Well, not the only ones. They could go crazy and change the rules regarding pitcher usage or roster spots, but those open up cans of worms related to health that make it very difficult to implement them.

Turbo Sloth: Is Billy Butler really nothing more than just a DH vs LHPs? Seems really wasteful, I mean even last year he was decent offensively.

Dave Cameron: He was terrible last year. He’s not a good player.

Johnny5Alive: The Mets playoff odds already dropped 11 points due to their poor start (and now, the likelihood they don’t win the division). And they have pretty poor depth. If DeGrom has to miss time, or someone gets hurt, are they really screwed?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t say they’re screwed, no. It’s early. But if deGrom is out for an extended period of time, then yes, that hurts.

Ben: Would you have brought Mallex Smith up so early, losing a year of control? Or waited a few weeks to delay his service time? It’s not like Braves are gonna win, seems like a poor decision.

Dave Cameron: Mallex Smith isn’t the kind of guy you worry about service time with.

Chris: Do you have any plans for some west coast Pitch Talks?

Dave Cameron: Yep, they’re working on one.

The Average Sports Fan: What can Jay Bruce do to rebuild his trade value?

Dave Cameron: Hit well, bunt to beat the shift.

Fritos: How do you think the Blue Jays are feeling about that Dickey trade now?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure they’d love to have Thor back, but you can’t look at an A-ball pitching prospect and think “man, we can’t trade this guy because he might add 5 mph to his fastball and start sitting at 99.”

Dave Cameron: He could have easily gone the Dylan Bundy route. It happens.

FireDrayton: Ken Giles…eeeeek or chill?

Dave Cameron: Mostly chill. Remember last year at this time that everyone was freaking out about Dellin Betances? Then he just went back to destroying everyone.

Dancing Daniel : Domingo Santana: can he be like springer or a meh guy

Dave Cameron: Looks like a guy who can play to me. Maybe not Springer, but a solid player.

e: Concerned at all about King Felix losing velocity? Or is he still good enough with the secondary stuff for it not to kill him?

Dave Cameron: His change-up remains one of the best pitches in baseball. The declining velocity is problematic but the secondary stuff is amazing.

The Decadent Moose: 12:16 Dave Cameron: Rollins is a good enough stop gap for now.

Who’s cat did Tyler Saladino run over to not get more playing time?

Dave Cameron: Well he can’t hit so there’s that.

Sam: From Toronto, but I get the feeling that we are overrating Stroman just a tad. Don’t you think we need to see more before naming him as the Price replacement ace?

Dave Cameron: To me, he’s in that Sonny Gray/Michael Wacha mold of ace-stuff, ace-command, but non-ace strikeout rate. Those guys aren’t at the very top tier of pitchers, but nothing wrong with having them at the front of your rotation. And if the Ks come, then they’re unhittable.

Barry from Boston: If you were Boston GM, would you wait until all-star break for legitimate SP behind Price or make a move now? Porcello, Kelly, Bucholtz, Wright tough to believe in..

Dave Cameron: Rodriguez will be back to replace Wright, and Porcello/Kelly/Buchholz will pitch better.

john: Give a one word description of the Cubs offense. Relentless has already been taken…

Dave Cameron: Deep.

Drew: AL West has looked mediocre thus far…think it ends up the worst division in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Quite possibly, yes. If the Astros can get their pitching together, they could be the one team in that division that could run away with it. Everyone else looks pretty meh.

Franky: Does Matz gain some consistency and become the 2/3 starter we are expecting him to become?

Dave Cameron: I didn’t know we were expecting that.

Dave Cameron: Okay, have to wrap things up a few minutes early today. Thanks for hanging out today. We’ll be back to Wednesday next week.