Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 4/8/15

Dave Cameron: It’s the first Wednesday of the regular season, so let’s chat right up until the Tigers start pummeling the Twins.

Comment From speed
can you forsee the orioles making a mid-season trade? if so, what do they go after?

Dave Cameron: Their rotation still isn’t very good. If they’re going to make a postseason run, they need better pitching.

Comment From Vslyke
Any expectation of what the Braves will do with all the future payroll they freed up in the Upton/Kimbrel trade? Do you think they go get some FAs or spend it on the farm system?

Dave Cameron: Seems like they’re stockpiling young arms who should be cheap for a while, so if they can assemble a rotation out of the guys they’ve traded for, should be plenty of money to go buy themselves a new outfield. And a third baseman. And maybe a catcher.

Comment From Anthony
How frustrating is this part of the year for you from a writing/editing standpoint? Obviously you can’t just ignore that real games are being played, but there’s so little data to do meaningful Fangraphs-style analysis of.

Dave Cameron: Still plenty of stuff to talk about. In reality, the “you can’t say anything until X months have passed” people have become more of an annoyance than people overreacting to small samples.

Comment From Brandon
What do you think about the Castro rumors?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think the Cubs trade him in-season.

Dave Cameron: Next winter, maybe.

Comment From Sammy Davis Junior
Do you see the Cubs and Padres matching up trade-wise – infield help for starting pitching?

Dave Cameron: The Cubs don’t need starting pitching.

Comment From Ross G
Steve Pearce: you buying or selling?

Dave Cameron: He’s not going to have his 2014 season again, but he looks like a pretty solid slugger in the Nelson Cruz mold.

Comment From sjn0
Am I crazy to think that the Carrasco deal is extremely team friendly? I realize that he’s not exactly a proven commodity yet and some health concerns may have factored into his decision, but the Tribe is getting tremendous upside for basically what Bud Norris got in three years of arbitration. In return, Carrasco is giving up two years of free agency (in ’19 and ’20) for less yearly money than Justin Masterson is making now. And the team holds the options on those years! I won’t begrudge a player for wanting security, but this seems like highway robbery. Am I wrong?

Dave Cameron: Carrasco’s about as high risk a guy as you’ll ever see get one of these deals, and the guaranteed money reflects that.

Comment From Karl
Doesn’t EVERY team have the “chance” to be horrible? The Rangers and Red Sox last year being a good example. Why is it a surprise to learn the Brewers with limited resources have little depth.

Dave Cameron: The Brewers have a much better chance of being terrible than most. Their lack of depth isn’t a resource problem; lots of similar revenue teams manage to find more than 10 major league players.

Comment From Flipper the Dolphin
How many years do you see Buster Posey catching before he change role and let’s say he play 1B or DH?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess he’ll be a semi-regular catcher for three more years.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Why did the Tigers seem to not care much for Porcello, but the Red Sox seem to covet him?

Dave Cameron: The Tigers seem to put a lot of emphasis on velocity and strikeouts.

Comment From Status: Lunch Break
Hi Dave! I’m a recent college grad about to enter the work force full-time (I’ve been an intern for about 2 years now) and I’ve been thinking about starting a retirement fund of some sort. What/where do you recommend for someone who’s starting out on this sort of thing?

Dave Cameron: Easiest way to start is to open a Roth IRA at Vanguard, then just pick a Target Retirement Fund for ~35-40 years in the future. You can start with as little as $1,000, and you don’t have to make minimum contributions beyond that, though of course it is better if you do.

Dave Cameron: I should note that there are a million ways to open an IRA; Vanguard just happens to be easy and charge very low fees, so they’re an easy recommendation.

Comment From Michael
It has been reported that the Padres are shopping around for a shortstop. What I don’t understand is how they intend to pay for one. Their credit cards are maxed, their farm system is barren, all they really have is a couple of bullpen pieces, but that’s not going to net you a major league shortstop, is it?

Dave Cameron: Easiest fit is they take Elvis Andrus’ deal with the Rangers picking up some of the 2015 tab in order to fit him into their payroll this year. Rangers shouldn’t require much/any talent in return to dump that deal, and the Padres have already sold off enough of their future that there’s no point in going halfway.

Comment From Brett
Percent chance of Rockies contending in the NL West if Tulo and Cargo stay healthy all year?

Dave Cameron: 10%

Comment From Terp
What are the odds De Aza+ Snider are equally valuable this season as Markakis+Cruz ?

Dave Cameron: Pretty decent.

Comment From Philip from work
What’s a good local pizza place in WS? I’ve had Burke Street but I’m curious about other options.

Dave Cameron: The pizza in this town is mostly garbage. My wife ate at Marco’s down on the south side of town (down 150) and loved it, but I haven’t tried it myself. Mission Pizza is hit or miss, but you have to know you’re spending $15 per person to get enough to eat, so it’s not exactly frugal.

Comment From Owen S
Given the recent discovery of the DH penalty, do you think that DH WAR should be recalibrated to reflect what we now ‘know’? I propose keeping the defensive penalty the same, but artificially increasing the runs above replacement produced during DH PAs by 10%: the degree of the penalty. What say you?

Dave Cameron: The DH penalty is not a recent discovery, and it’s been factored into the positional adjustments since day one.

Comment From Snarfle
Do you think Preller is onto something (overpays notwithstanding) of adding value wherever he can and not worrying too much about team strengths and weaknesses?

Dave Cameron: Yes, but you shouldn’t just ignore glaring holes either. Sometimes, the path of least resistance is that way for a reason.

Comment From Cobb
Braves clearing a lot of future salary. Could they just buy back Heyward this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think they have any interest. They didn’t think he was that good.

Comment From MC1
Almost all the predictions about the Red Sox season have the caveat “when/if they add more talent they will be the class of the division”. Is there any precedent to teams adding players in the year and improving dramatically?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t read it that way at all. I’ve said that I think their current roster is good enough to get them to the postseason, and people picking their roster apart for not being built for October are ignoring the fact that this isn’t their October roster.

Comment From Gabriel
Terms not yet known but, do you think it is wise from the Pirates to lock Josh Harrison?

Dave Cameron: Report is 4/28, which buys out three free agent years. Seems about right without looking too close.

Comment From Noli
Dave- in your preview of the AL west, you mentioned that despite the many years of losing and collecting draft picks and young talent, the astros appear to not have any potential star levels players. (1) Why do you think this has been the case? (2) What are your thoughts on carlos correa? (2)

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they’ve done particularly well with their top draft picks. Appel over Bryant looks particularly poor.

Dave Cameron: Correa looks more like a potential good solid piece than a star to me.

Comment From Cole
Had a discussion with a friend RE: Paxton #2 and Iwakuma #3. Is there any data that suggests that the handedness of the previous day’s pitcher has any impact on that day’s pitching performance?

Dave Cameron: Not that I’ve seen.

Comment From Huh?
“The Cubs don’t need starting pitching” you do realize you’re referring to a team that has Travis Wood in the starting rotation, right?

Dave Cameron: He’s their #5 starter, and they have plenty of depth behind him capable of filling in if he struggles. Giving up your starting SS to upgrade your #5 starter is silly.

Comment From gump
never got it answered during opening day chat: how much would you raise Boston’s expected ERA with Vazquez out

Dave Cameron: Not that much. Hanigan is also a very good defender.

Comment From Michael
Of the consensus top 100 prospects who, after Baez, can you forsee being a bust at the MLB level

Dave Cameron: I’m super low on Archie Bradley. And I’m not sold on Buxton, to be honest.

Comment From Guest
Before you wrote the Porcello-Masterson article, I personally thought given the Porcello extension, it will be interesting to see what Fister gets in the off season. They are very similar pitchers, but Fister is 6 years older.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think Fister settles for something in same range, maybe a little less.

Comment From J Warmold
Is there a way to sort by team defensive runs saved on the site?

Dave Cameron: Leaderboards, team stats, fielding, DRS.

Comment From Noli
Dave- do you have an idea of hart et al’s logic behind the markakis contract? how do they justify it given what they’ve done this past offseason?

Dave Cameron: They think he’s a very good defender with an average bat. If they were right about that, it wouldn’t be a terrible deal. I don’t think they’re right about that.

Comment From Sleepless
Am i missing something in comparing Boston and Baltimore? Red Sox rotation doesn’t appear to be significantly better, and while their offense might have more star power and a higher ceiling, the Orioles have a stronger defense across the board.

Dave Cameron: Offense matters more than defense, so the Red Sox advantage with the bats means more than the O’s advantage in the field.

Comment From RoyalsFan
Do you consider Alex Gordon a franchise player? Do you think the Royals should pursue keeping him?

Dave Cameron: He’s a +4 WAR player based heavily on defense heading towards his 30s. Better to count on him as an above average player going forward than a true star.

Comment From mtsw
It’s possible I may receive a 6-figure legal settlement this year as the result of a dispute with my landlord (roughly double my annual income). What’s the ideal way for a 30-year-old to spend/invest that money, beyond the obvious step of paying off my credit cards?

Dave Cameron: At that level, it’s probably best to sit down with a professional and have them help you figure out your best options. I’d search for a fee-only financial advisor in your area. You don’t want a brokerage agent who will just try to sell you products (and make commissions off of those); a fee-only advisor simply charges you a base rate for his time and will help walk you through the different options you have. A good one will more than pay for themselves in your situation.

Comment From KG
Thoughts on Maddon hitting the pitcher 8th? Is this a smart idea or does it not move the needle much either way?

Dave Cameron: Both.

Comment From GSon
Padres have the 5th competitive balance lottery pick in the upcoming June Rule IV draft.. Think they would trade that pick and perhaps another prospect (Zech Lemond/Tayron Guerero) for someone like Jose Ramirez?

Dave Cameron: Why would the Indians do that?

Comment From Michael
You recently told a young person he should have about 90% in stocks. I’m also relatively young and I much prefer high yield bonds to stocks. Am I doing something wrong?

Dave Cameron: Bonds are generally not risky enough to bring back the kinds of returns you’ll want over the long-term to build a retirement account. They’re low-risk/low-rewards products, so they’re good to have as part of your portfolio, but if you’re mostly saving for the future in bonds, you’re just going to keep up with inflation, or even be a bit behind.

Comment From J Warmold
Mookie Betts or Joc Pedersen going forward?

Dave Cameron: Mookie, by a lot.

Comment From Foz
What is more likely? Pedroia is back or Dozier repeats?

Dave Cameron: Pedroia.

Comment From Catoblepas
Sad to hear that August is taking his talents elsewhere; I really like his writing here. Any thoughts of a replacement, or was this taken into account in the last batch of hirings?

Dave Cameron: We knew he was taking the MLB.com gig a few months ago, which is why we hired some new folks. There is some chance that August will return to FG this winter after his job with them ends; we definitely didn’t like losing him, but it’s a great opportunity for him and we’re happy to see him get a chance to grow as a writer.

Comment From Snarfle
The NL scrum should be fun, which team can overcome their big weakness and snag a wildcard: Padres (crappy infield), Marlins (shaky rotation), Mets (meh offense), Cubs (need quick maturation), Giants (shaky rotation), etc.

Dave Cameron: I’ll take the Cubs.

Comment From Trane
Who is the best left fielder in the game today?

Dave Cameron: Alex Gordon.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
How many games do you expect Rendon to play this year?

Dave Cameron: 120

Comment From enasti
Were you surprised the Braves were able to get so much in the Kimbrel trade? I remember you saying in an earlier chat they could get a solid prospect in return for him; they did that while also dumping Melvin’s contract and picking up another pick/prospect.

Dave Cameron: Well, they didn’t dump all of Upton’s contract. I liked the deal for Atlanta, but it wasn’t an outright heist.

Comment From JD
If Atlanta doesn’t think Heyward was that good – what do they know or think they know?

Dave Cameron: They didn’t buy his defensive value offsetting the lack of power from an RF>

Comment From Shawn
What percentage (if any) of transactions do you know about before they are reported? Even if not official, do you get a heads up if something big is coming?

Dave Cameron: A very small percentage, but I do hear some stuff sometimes. I’m not Ken Rosenthal or anything.

Comment From Pittsburgh Fanatic
Rank in terms of ceiling: Polanco, Soler, Springer, Pederson

Dave Cameron: Soler, Polanco/Springer/Pederson all similar.

Comment From BuckShow
Regarding that O’s playoff run question, how good was the Royals rotation a year ago?

Dave Cameron: Shields and Ventura both better than anything Baltimore has.

Comment From STiVo
Can you briefly explain the general difference between the 2-seam and 4-seam fastball, in terms of movement?

Dave Cameron: Two-seams tend to have sink and tail, so they move down and away from same-handed hitters. Four-seam fastballs generally don’t have much movement at all.

Comment From Foz
Is the reason teams have an off day after opening day have to do with possible rainouts and teams wanting to capitalize on opening day revenues?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they don’t want to get into a situation where the weather is bad and now teams have to make up 4-5 games.

Comment From rustydude
How scary will the Orioles lineup be if Machado and Davis have even slight bounceback seasons to go along with Pearce, DeAza, Jones, Snider and Wieters? Do they threaten the season record for team HR’s?

Dave Cameron: Lots of questions about my favorite overreaction so far: this is it.

Comment From LookItUp
How many games until EVERYONE says “the Red Sox were right to keep Mookie and the Phillies delusional for ever thinking they had a chance”?

Dave Cameron: Everyone should already realize that.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Assuming you buy my premise: How often do we see out-of-nowhere improvements where a player goes from organizational depth to All-Star caliber (e.g., Pearce)? Is this like a once per year occurrence?

Dave Cameron: A lot more than once per year. We had J.D. Martinez and Josh Harrison last year too, plus a dozen pitchers seem to do this every summer. Arrieta, Keuchel, etc…

Comment From Ross
Taking as a given that the Nationals will waltz into the postseason, it seems that everyone is ignoring the biggest issue facing the team: Matt Williams. With the pitching arsenal he has, he would likely be best served using them in creative roles in the postseason, but showed absolutely zero interest in using any of his best 4 pitchers in a win-or-go-home Game 4 against the Giants. Even with the best team on paper, isn’t it still eminently possible that he screws this thing up?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but Ned Yost just went to the World Series, so it’s not a dealbreaker.

Comment From BuckShow
Regarding De Aza/Snider question, did the answer contain any bias after 2 games? I mean, I don’t recall you this high on Snider (and deAza) previously…

Dave Cameron: I’m not particularly high on either; I’m low on Cruz/Markakis.

Comment From Bruce
How could the dodgers spend so much money, yet have no depth in their pen, and have Scott Baker starting a game in April?

Dave Cameron: They have a lot of depth in their pen; just because Chris Hatcher, Yimi Garcia, Adam Liberatore, etc… aren’t household names don’t mean they aren’t any good.

Comment From Booyahtastic
Just for Fun…which White Sox outfielder do you think will finish 2015 with highest WAR?

Dave Cameron: Eaton.

Comment From monty
Do you track your spending with tools like MInt? Or do you just kind of wing it and try to not spend recklessly

Dave Cameron: I do use Mint, but mostly just to keep an eye on things. I’ve got our budget at a point where I can eyeball most things and see when things are out of whack.

Comment From THE Average Sports Fan
If Latos is not a solid starter, are Marlins good enough to hold on until Fernandez is ready?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From Testudo
Is Porcello a good comp for Wei Yin Chen’s contract this winter?

Dave Cameron: No, because Chen isn’t anywhere near as good.

Comment From gareth bale
How much would you predict Jeff Samardzija signs for this winter? Should the White Sox be the team to sign him to said contract?

Dave Cameron: If he has a good season, he’s going to get $100M+.

Comment From L. Scott
I know it’s just one game, but the Nationals could be in trouble with that offense. Outside of Harper, there’s not much to bank on. Any chance they trade either Zimmerman or Fister for a big bat if they have a .500ish April?

Dave Cameron: Maybe try waiting until they get Werth, Span, and Rendon back before you jump ship.

Comment From Conor
Do you think you’d be able to win a lot of money on FanDuel?

Dave Cameron: Nope. From what I understand, the smart money has already made their way to Daily Fantasy, and people like us who don’t do that for a living would get crushed without a serious time investment to find small advantages.

Comment From Robocop
Should White Sox try to sign Avisail Garcia to a long term team-friendly deal now, after the season, or not at all?

Dave Cameron: Not at all. I’m not a fan.

Comment From Guest
mtsw: Buy 20,000 FG+ subscriptions

Comment From Noli
Have you ever been approached by a major league team to join their management/research team on a full time basis? Does that kind of job appeal to you?

Dave Cameron: I’ve had a few conversations. Reality is that my gig is pretty sweet, though. Set my own hours (kinda, anyway), work from home, get weekends off, get to take holidays. Working in baseball is a huge commitment. Working for FanGraphs is a little more reasonable.

Comment From rustydude
I like Susan Slusser as a beat reporter for the A’s. Do you have any favorites in any of the baseball markets?

Dave Cameron: Travis Sawchick in PIttsburgh is very good.

Dave Cameron: Alex Speier in Boston.

Comment From Ross G
Best team in two years: Astros, Cubs, Mets, Marlins?

Dave Cameron: Cubs by a lot.

Comment From Status: Lunch Break
I noticed that Drew Fairservice was hired at FG back in December but hasn’t written anything since then. Would it be rude to ask why?

Dave Cameron: He got a full time job that precluded him from writing for us anymore.

Comment From BF
Atlanta didn’t like defensive value and lack of power from RF Heyward… then bought Markakis who is the same type of player but worse in both areas

Dave Cameron: They’re okay with that kind of player making $44 million. They’re not okay with that kind of player making $150-$200M, which is what Heyward will get.

Comment From rustydude
Why do old retired basketball stars (Dr J, Shaq, Drexler, Barkley, and many more) do so well in commercials and yet old retired baseball and football stars barely exist in commercials? Does NBA market it’s stars and retired stars better?

Dave Cameron: Stars matter a lot more in basketball than in baseball.

Comment From Christopher
What are your thoughts on Francisco Lindor? Should he be up with the club or is this a contract issue?

Dave Cameron: He’s not any better than Jose Ramirez right now, so no need to rush him.

Comment From STiVo
Initial reports I saw said that the Padres included the 41st pick in the draft in the Kimbrel trade. I thought teams couldn’t trade draft picks in MLB?

Dave Cameron: You can trade competitive balance picks, but not others. It’s silly.

Comment From Rob
What would Aaron Sanchez have to do in order for the scouts/projections to like him as a starter?

Dave Cameron: Throw strikes.

Comment From RMR
You said trading your starting SS to upgrade your #5 starter was a bad idea. Is that a comment on position player value vs. SP? About the #5 starter not being part of your playoff rotation? Something else? Sufficiently talented #5 SPs still start 30 games a year…

Dave Cameron: #5 starters can be skipped in the rotation to minimize their impact, and they won’t have a tangible impact on your playoff roster unless you move them to the bullpen. Better to have an everyday SS.

Comment From Comment From
Based on talent alone (excluding money), who would your prefer for the next ten years: Kershaw or Kris Bryant?

Dave Cameron: Bryant. Kershaw will break down at some point.

Comment From Dave
I went to a symposium on Pitcher injuries at USC the other day… some of the leading bio-mechanics experts in the field along with Rob Nen and a Orthopedic surgeon with TJ expertise. The bottom line: they still have no clue how to prevent pitcher injuries, beyond the common sense stuff.

Dave Cameron: Yup. No one has this figured out yet.

Comment From Michael
Alex Speier is pretty knowledgable, but even he started his piece on Porcello’s extension by mentioning that he had had 10 wins in each of the last whatever many seasons. Don’t writers have a responsibility to not propagate stupid stats?

Dave Cameron: He writes for the Boston Globe. His audience skews older and traditional, so he can’t just alienate them and expect his audience to still listen to what he has to say. He’s walking the line between keeping them reading and trying to help them see new things.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that’s it for me today. Enjoy Twins-Tigers, or Cubs-Cards, or an afternoon of work…