Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/10/15

Dave Cameron: It’s the Wednesday after the draft, which means we’re now officially at the start of trade season. Let’s talk baseball and ridiculous speculative offers, starting in 15 minutes.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s do this.

Comment From josh
have the redsox effectively played their way out of a cole hamels trade at this point?

Dave Cameron: The incentive for them to push all in on 2015 is diminished, certainly. But that division is still mostly garbage, and they aren’t that far out. A lot can change in six weeks time. I would imagine they could still be a buyer if the team gets hot in June.

Comment From Big Brother
Is the Fangraphs Live event on July 5th 21+? My little brother is a huge fan of yours, and I wanted to see if he could come

Dave Cameron: Unfortunately, yes, since it’s being held in a bar, I believe they won’t allow underage attendees. But I’m going to be sticking around DC for a few days after, and going to the Nationals games the next few nights, and I’d be happy to say hi to him if you guys wanted to meet up there.

Comment From Slew (Seattle)
If you’re the Cleveland GM, what are your top 2 priorities going into the trade deadline?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably be looking for a guy who could play both SS/3B, so that you aren’t tied to any of the young kids there but you’re also not blocking them in case one turns out alright.

Comment From Bob
Toronto and New York on identical 7-game win streaks. What is happening?

Dave Cameron: Teams who hit a bunch of dingers can be tough to beat when the pitching is decent.

Comment From Philip
Hi Dave! I just read your article on Matz & Super Two status and I was wondering if a player is called up and is placed on the DL at some point in the season, does the days on the DL still count towards their service time?

Dave Cameron: Yes, any time on the active roster — which is the 25 man roster or the MLB DL — counts as service days.

Dave Cameron: This is why you’ll occasionally see guys get optioned to the minors, discover they’re injured, and the option gets voided and they get placed on the MLB DL instead of just placing them on the MILB DL.

Comment From Akalhar
If you had to say right now, which team wins the AL West? Should any of them be clear sellers or buyers at this point?

Dave Cameron: I think the Astros might actually pull this off. I just don’t really see any of the other teams being that good.

Comment From Evan
If a team is going to use a 6 man rotation wouldn’t they be better off having one guy pitch every 6 games and take the place of each successive pitcher each time through the rotation. So the other 5 pitch on regular rest except getting skipped every 5 time through the rotation?

Dave Cameron: That’s an interesting idea.

Comment From Philip
You’ve mentioned before that the Dodgers don’t need to trade for an ace to help the back end of their rotation, who would be an ideal fit for them to help replace McCarthy & Ryu?

Dave Cameron: Scott Kazmir, maybe?

Dave Cameron: Or even Samardzija could be a decent pickup if the White Sox sell. Which they should.

Comment From marc
Is this the year the Pirates make a splash and Land a Hamels/Cueto or more minor like a Lind/Harang?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t expect them to outbid the big boys for the top names. I think they’ll continue to look for value.

Comment From ManielDurphy
Reds most interesting team to watch for their dismantling that should occur during the year?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that they’ll dismantle in-season; they’ll trade Cueto, Chapman, and Leake before July 31, but everyone else probably sticks around until the winter. The bigger contract guys are probably easier to move in the off-season.

Comment From ManielDurphy
Hamels to Rangers now most likely landing spot, given their new relevance and the stockpile of prospects they have?

Dave Cameron: The Rangers aren’t legitimate contenders, and shouldn’t have any interest in trading for Cole Hamels.

Comment From Joe Maddon
My bullpen really needs some help in late-game scenarios, am I gonna get Papelbon or is there someone else more likely?

Dave Cameron: Your bullpen is mostly fine. Rondon/Strop/Grimm are all pretty solid, and Soriano will give another decent enough RH specialist. You need a lights out LH reliever.

Comment From The Average Sports Fan
Can Boston actually justify being buyers? Two months of really not good so far.

Dave Cameron: And as Jeff wrote on Monday, those numbers don’t really mean much. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Mike
Dave, cheeky question for you. O/U $250K if I started a crowdfunding campaign for Jays fans to get Billy Beane a thank you Ferrari?

Dave Cameron: The Donaldson and Martin moves could not have worked out any better. Kind of amazing that the Blue Jays added two MVP-caliber performers and still aren’t that great.

Comment From jt
Do you think the Mets can find a sucker to take Niese? Shouldn’t Matz have that spot in the rotation regardless?

Dave Cameron: There’s no real great argument that Matz is currently better than Niese. The idea that Matz is clearly ready to step in and dominate big league hitters is silly.

Comment From JT91
The Yankees. Legitimate contenders, smoke and mirrors, or some combination of the two?

Dave Cameron: In that division, legitimate contenders.

Comment From Brett
What kind of playing time and production you expect for Justin Turner the rest of the way out? Does starting 6 of his last 7 before injury a sign of things to come?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re happy with him as a 350-400 PA per year guy. Olivera’s arrival won’t help his cause for a regular gig either.

Comment From Connor
Josh Donaldson is playing like a top 5 player in baseball, is there any chance he gets a huge extension in a few years or he is too old?

Dave Cameron: I think at this point, it makes sense to go year to year with him. He’s passed the point where you can lock him up cheaply, and a big long-term deal just brings a lot of extra risk.

Comment From Tom
What will/should the Cardinals do if Matt Holliday is out for an extended period of time?

Dave Cameron: Roll with what they have. Most teams don’t have their OF depth. They’ll be fine.

Comment From Hoff
Is STL content with Reynolds at 1B or is Ryan Howard a possibility? (Assuming PHI eats 99% of Salary)

Dave Cameron: The Cardinals are smart enough to realize that they can do better than Ryan Howard.

Comment From joe
do teams worry about their trade pieces getting injured? if I’m amaro or jocketty i trade my ace before something happens. these trade pieces bring are crucial to these teams rebuilding process

Dave Cameron: Everything is a balance; you weigh the risk of getting nothing against the rising prices as we get closer to the deadline. That said, I do think some sellers would be better off selling sooner than later, especially if you have a guy who has a long history of injury problems. If the A’s decide to sell, they should move Kazmir sooner than later.

Comment From Zonk
Can you make a fair Mets/Cubs trade for us? Cubs getting starting pitcher, Mets getting middle IF. Please don’t say Russell for Gee, or Castro for Harvey…..

Dave Cameron: This is a weird myth that has lived on; the Cubs don’t really need another back-end SP type. Their starting four in a postseason series of Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, and Hendricks are all pretty good.

Comment From Matza
Pick the date that S. Matz gets called up? 10 Internet Points if you get it right

Dave Cameron: June 21st.

Comment From BK
how should I evaluate the Jays? 30-30 record, or +54 run differential? Is this predictive moving forward for continued success (7 game win streak currently)

Dave Cameron: Better than their record, worse than their run differential. They’re a good-not-great team.

Comment From _David_
The all Royals all star team has been a fun development, especially because it embarrasses MLB…do you think any changes result?

Dave Cameron: The reality is that with an online voting mechanism, there are always going to be ways to game the system, much more so than when it used to be paper ballot driven. MLB can try to implement more restrictions on votes per person, but I doubt it’s a high priority for them.

Comment From TXfaninATL
So, how about that Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler trade now?

Dave Cameron: The Prince Fielder contract is still one of the very worst in baseball, and Kinsler is still clearly the better player.

Comment From Mark
What do you need to see from the Rangers to believe they can seriously contend? You continue to seem hesitant

Dave Cameron: They need better players than the ones they have now. This team just isn’t very good, and playing .500 ball for two months doesn’t change that.

Comment From Tim
When was the last time the NL was this much better than the AL?

Dave Cameron: It’s not clear the NL is better than the AL overall; the NL just has the three best teams in baseball by a mile, but they also have a bunch of atrocious teams.

Comment From Drew
Will Kris Bryant be Super 2 eligible?

Dave Cameron: Yes, and so will Addison Russell.

Comment From Curtis
If Iwakuma returns for 4-5 healthy productive starts, could be be a trade target? assuming the Ms will continue to be horrible…

Dave Cameron: I doubt the M’s sell. They put too much into this year to admit that it didn’t work in July.

Comment From Wuuut
Trade proposal : Rebuilding Atl receives Polanco and GroundBall heavy Pit receives A.Simmons. Of course few more minor players could go either way. What do you think?

Dave Cameron: Polanco isn’t worth anything close to Simmons.

Comment From Alex
Do you think that the site’s WAR calculation might be overreacting to Hanley Ramirez’s bad defense, especially because of the stadium he plays in? Do you think that despite his well above average hitting, he’s actually been less valuable to the team then a replacement level player?

Dave Cameron: Hanley Ramirez is an atrocious defensive outfielder, and he would be in any ballpark in America. Defense matters, and Hanley’s one of the main reasons the Red Sox have not been that good so far.

Comment From Jim
Any reason to believe in Frias/Bolsinger as a real solution to the backend of the dodgers’ rotation?

Dave Cameron: I think Bolsinger could be just fine as a regular season #5 starter. I think Frias is probably a reliever.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t want either one starting a playoff game.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
does dillon gee to astros for valbuena make sense – i know they called up velasquez, but gee is at least better than woj and the valbuena is the type of player (solid d, but expendable) the mets might use to “wait for wright”

Dave Cameron: Dillon Gee is bad and has no trade value.

Comment From Curtis
Which batter is having the most interesting start to you…either what he’s accomplished or how he’s doing it?

Dave Cameron: Has to be A-Rod, right?

Comment From Andrew
What would you consider to be the strongest division in baseball?

Dave Cameron: The NL Central, probably.

Comment From bob
Who says no? Hamels, Papelbon & 20M for Javier Baez & Dan Vogelbach

Dave Cameron: Phillies would want more.

Comment From ManielDurphy
The issue really isn’t whether Matz will dominate ML hitters; it’s that Niese is dreck.

Dave Cameron: No, he’s not.

Comment From Jagger
If the Astros find a way to sign all 3 of Cameron, Bregman, and Tucker, do you think they’d be that much more interested in Hamels? Would they make anyone in their farm outside Correa available?

Dave Cameron: Signing their draft picks won’t have any impact on their interest in Hamels. I think they’re more likely to give up lesser talents for a shorter commitment; Samardzija or Cueto seem far more likely.

Comment From The Boat
Given the Lester (and to a lesser extent, Price) trades as comparables, how might a trade for Cueto work? Could you see a package centered on a controllable mid-rotation type (Smyly) or a controllable corner OF (given Reds’ needs)?

Dave Cameron: I think CIN goes more for long-term upside. They don’t need to prioritize getting someone back for 2016. They’re going to be bad for a while.

Comment From GSon
Giovanny Urshela.. a short term replacement until Chisenhall figures it out in the minors.. or the start of a long looonnnggg loooonnnnnnggggg career?

Dave Cameron: He’s Pedro Feliz 2.0.

Comment From Austin
Is there a legitimate chance that all AL East teams are buyers at the deadline? No team is great, but none are particularly awful and could hope for a 85-win season winning that division, right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they’ll all at least hold, and maybe all buy. I could see the Rays and Red Sox making more minor moves than big acquisitions.

Comment From Philip
Will the Cardinals trade for a 1B?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I would expect them to. I could see them going after Yonder Alonso if the Padres decide to make Wil Myers their 1B upon his return.

Comment From The Boat
The Dodgers have talked some big talk about resigning Kendrick after the season, but given Olivera/Turner/Hernandez/Guerrero I don’t see it. Your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Kendrick is really good. Olivera is still a question mark, Turner is probably a better fit at 3B, Guerrero is a 3B/OF. There’s room for him.

Comment From Raindog
Seems to me that for some marquee players to be traded, they have to performing well enough that their current team isn’t selling low. Fair to say that Tulo has met that threshold, CarGo hasn’t, and Utley is has guaranteed he’s a Phillie for life?

Dave Cameron: Actually, I think the Yankees showed last year that there is a market for contenders who want to buy low on struggling players. They nailed their July trades with McCarthy, Prado, Capuano, and then signing Chris Young after he got released by the Mets. I would expect they might be interested in doing something with Utley too.

Comment From Philip
Favorite DC monument/landmark?

Dave Cameron: Lincoln or Jefferson Memorial. Love both.

Comment From Big Brother
That would be pretty awesome for him to meet you. How would I go about setting that up?

Dave Cameron: Hit me up on Twitter, and we’ll figure out the best way to make it happen.

Comment From Austin
You’re starting a team from scratch and can take either Carlos Correa or Kris Bryant. Which do you take?

Dave Cameron: Bryant.

Comment From mtsw
Would people have a higher opinion of Kyle Hendricks if his name didn’t sound so much Kyle Kendrick?

Dave Cameron: Perhaps. But he’s very similar to every other underrated soft-tossing RHP with who gets groundballs and has a change-up for an out-pitch. These guys are just frequently overlooked.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Would it make sense to say that the most likely outcome for Dansby Swanson’s career is league-average player?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s probably about right.

Dave Cameron: Maybe a tick above average.

Comment From Logan Davis
Which player is more A’s, Sogard or Venditte?

Dave Cameron: Vogt.

Comment From Austin
Going off the last comment – why can’t we all just agree to make the All Star game meaningless? Then Royals fans can go batshit crazy with their votes and no one will care, but the fact that they are playing for home-field advantage in the World Series is absurd, right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d like to see the home-field advantage in the WS taken away from the ASG.

Comment From Semperty
What do the Cardinals do with Wainwright, Adams, and Waldon out long term, and Holliday and Gonzales out for at least three weeks? Make trades to fill, or just hope this rest of the squad can keep it up?

Dave Cameron: They have a big enough lead in the division to not have to make a rash reaction move.

Comment From STiVo
Over/under career HR for G. Stanton: 500? (He currently has 175.)

Dave Cameron: I’ll go over.

Comment From ar
so it sounds like you aren’t expecting a super active trade deadline.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think we’re going to see more than a few big trades and then some minor stuff. Cueto and Hamels will go, and Gomez probably will too, but after those three, there aren’t a lot of impact guys available. Tulo could change things, but who knows what COL is doing.

Comment From Guest
How much awkward milling about will I do at the Fangraphs live event in July? as a percent of time spent

Dave Cameron: Depends on how awkward you are. In general, I find that FG readers are far more social than you might expect based on our reptuation.

Comment From harry
“Polanco isn’t worth anything close to Simmons.” you don’t think that’s a bit of an overstatement? By WAR, simmons has been worth 1.4 and polanco has been worth 1.1 despite less playing time. Polanco is 23, simmons is 25… yeah I’d rather have simmons but it’s not like Polanco is some scrub. he’s a young guy with plenty of upside

Dave Cameron: You don’t want to evaluate players by their 2015 performances only.

Comment From Compton
In your Correa JABO piece, you mention that Tulo is “almost the only guy currently playing the position who possesses real power”. What does the tier blow him look like? Peralta, Kang? Just trying to get a sense of how big the gap is.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Peralta is the guy who made me put “almost” in the quote. it’s not clear that Kang really is a shortstop.

Dave Cameron: Desmond is close to Peralta.

Dave Cameron: But it’s a huge drop-off.

Comment From Guest
Is Cueto really really “lesser” than Hamels?

Dave Cameron: No. I’d rather have Cueto.

Comment From joe
with desclafani iglesias and lorenzen, you don’t see the reds competing in 3 years? i guess their offense is going to get worse without much help…

Dave Cameron: Those guys aren’t anything special.

Comment From Josh G
Does Rubby De La Rosa just not have the stuff to get lefties out on a consistent basis?

Dave Cameron: He’s supposed to have a great change-up, but it doesn’t appear to be all that good yet.

Comment From Mason
What do you think the Indians are waiting for with Lindor? I don’t think he’s the savior, but I don’t see the point in keeping him down either.

Dave Cameron: They could be waiting for him to actually hit Triple-A pitching, which he hasn’t really done.

Comment From Mike Honcho
The annual trade value column usually happens during the All-Star break, right?

Dave Cameron: Yep. It’s a perfect fit for a week of no baseball.

Comment From James
What about the Reds makes you say they are going to be bad for awhile? A lot of young pitching in the rotation already and in the minors. Also, a controlled middle of the lineup of Mesoraco, Votto, Fraizer, and Bruce with defensive stars like Cozart and Hamilton at premium defensive positions seems pretty good.

Dave Cameron: Their young pitching looks mediocre at best. Bruce and Cozart are average players. Mesoraco is now a catcher with hip problems. The team has zero depth. They need to start over.

Comment From Hi+Erix
So Erik Aybar’s career is a pretty realistic expectation for Danbsy Swanson, give or take?

Dave Cameron: Swanson is a pretty different player than Aybar. I’d say maybe more like Stephen Drew.

Comment From Thatoneguy
Does Will Smith have any trade value this deadline?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s a perfect fit for a contender.

Comment From Marcus Banks
Kinsler being “clearly a better player” than Fielder at this time is laughable, at best.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/pr…

Comment From Marcus Banks
Who is the third NL team that is by far better than anyone in the AL? I don’t see a third team that is clearly better than the Yankees/Royals/Astros.

Dave Cameron: Nats/Dodgers/Cardinals clearly the best three teams in baseball.

Comment From hscer
Wait, how did you do that with just two selected players?

Dave Cameron: It’s a hidden trick that we haven’t really publicized that well. But if you go to the top of the page, you’ll see “Custom Teams”. Click on that, then you can add players to a “team” from the drop-down list. After you do that, you can choose to compare their current year stats or their projections.

Dave Cameron: And with that, we’ll wrap this up for the day.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out today, everyone.