Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/26/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. We’re coming up on the trade deadline, but more and more, I get the feeling that this isn’t going to be a particularly exciting few days.

Dave Cameron: Sonny Gray is going to go. A bunch of solid relievers will get moved.

Dave Cameron: But I don’t know that we’re going to see any blockbusters.

Ned Yost: Altuve leads Judge in both bWAR and fWAR, plays a premium defensive position, and is on a team that is significantly better than Judge’s. There is no saber-metric or old school argument you can use against him. He’s the MVP.

Dave Cameron: They’re tied at +5.5. Position is already included in WAR. Team strength is irrelevant.

Dave Cameron: Congratulations for taking a hard-line stance on something where it’s perfectly reasonable to pick one or the other, though.

LegallyEagle: Would it make any sense for the Angels and Tigers to trade Puljos-Cabrera? Angels improve the production, but are saddled for a bunch more money. The Tigers continue the roster overturn.

Dave Cameron: Miggy’s contract is underwater, but it’s not to the point you move him for the worst contract in baseball yet.

S: Who makes more sense for the Rockies, Avila or Lucroy?

Dave Cameron: Probably Avila. Not sure Lucroy is much better than him at this point, and Avila will almost certainly cost less.

The Man With No Name: What’s the deal with promoting Devers and then trading for Nunez?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/red-sox-acquire-eduardo-nunez-who-is-ok…

Coolguy: How valuable of a player is Chris Taylor going forward?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess ~+2.5 WAR.

Dub: do you think the cost of adding Nunez would be that much different than what Lowrie goes for? Would he have been a better fit for Bos?

Dave Cameron: Market for Lowrie might be a little better because he’s more viable at 2B.

Avila not Avila: Along with trading Verlander and Wilson, it would seem that one of the most beneficial events for the Tigers rebuild would be Upton opting out of his contract.  What are the odds that all three things occur?

Dave Cameron: He’s got 5/$110M left after this year. I don’t think he’d do better than that this winter.

Dave Cameron: But it’s also not that far off his market value. Even if he doesn’t opt-out, I think you could probably move him without picking up a huge amount of the contract. Maybe $20 million or so?

Nate: Take on the return the Giants got for Nunez?

Dave Cameron: About what you’d expect for a rent-a-role-player.

Hendrik: Do you consider it a flaw of WAR that a player gets the same credit for homering off Chris Sale as he gets for homering off Doug Fister, and if so is it fixable?

Dave Cameron: Well, it’s more of a philosophical question. If you adjust for quality of opponent, do you adjust for quality of pitch? What if Sale throws you a 3-0 middle-middle fastball and you hit that for a home run. Do you want extra credit for that too?

JHey: Is it too early to say Kyle Schwarber may not be terrible in the OF?  6.4UZR/150….so  he is just average or just below average at worst?

Dave Cameron: All of his positive UZR is based on throwing.

Erik: What team is closest to 50/50 on the buy/sell decision?

Dave Cameron: Maybe the Rangers?

Stumpy: What do you see Verlander’s value at?

Dave Cameron: I think the Tigers would have to eat about $20 million just to give him away for nothing. $30 million if they want a real prospect.

MikeyWhipreck: Any chance we can get Acuna for Sonny Gray?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Roberto: the Swarzak move doesn’t make the Brewers completely delusional yet. Do you think they prove their delusion in the next 5 days or do they hold steady and hope for the best?

Dave Cameron: No reason to think they’re delusional. I think they’ll make small upgrades.

Dave Cameron: Maybe they bring Marco Estrada back or something.

Free Willie: Calhoun.  Who is the best player the Dodgers could get back with a package centered around Calhoun as the top piece? And shouldn’t they do it immediately?

Dave Cameron: Wouldn’t be surprised if he went for a reliever. If Tigers think they can get Kinsler to waive his no-trade, could fit in Detroit as part of a Justin Wilson deal.

GK: Level of concern re: Donaldson?

Dave Cameron: Hard to imagine he’s healthy at this point.

Dave Cameron: Would guess that once the Jays are officially out of the race, he goes back on the DL.

Brad Wesley: Do you think Darvish ends up getting moved? If so, (1) Where do you think he lands and (2) Where do you think he SHOULD land (aka who could use him the most)

Dave Cameron: No, I don’t think they trade him. I’d think the Yankees would be the best suitors, but they seem to be more interested in Gray.

JD15: Hypothetical question: a position player is traded mid-game to the opposing team after starting the game. Is the player allowed to play in that same game for the opposing team?

Dave Cameron: No.

JK: The Astros can’t stand pat on the starting pitching market, right? Verlander or Gray seem like a necessity.

Dave Cameron: Why? Keuchel is good, McCullers is good, Morton is pitching well, Fiers is fine, and McHugh is coming back.

Dave Cameron: Could they use Gray? Of course. But they don’t “need” any of these guys.

The old professor: Does Jorge Mateo work as the centerpiece in a trade for Onny Gray?  Also, does Ellsbury for Samardzjia make sense if the Yankees pony up the salary difference?

Dave Cameron: No squared.

TJ: If Verlander was on waivers in August, would he get claimed?  Would Tigers let him walk for free if so?

Dave Cameron: No one’s taking that contract in full.

Moltar: Will we see a more robust August trading period than normal, especially among veteran hitters?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think part of the lack of movement on some of these guys is that everyone realizes a lot of the guys on the block will clear waivers.

Dave Cameron: Time is a precious commodity before the deadline; why waste it on someone you can trade for in August?

TJ: Is Florial/Mateo/Acevedo too light for Gray?

Dave Cameron: No, that sounds about right.

Matt: Why isn’t Jay Bruce getting any interest?

Dave Cameron: He’s a bat-first player who projects for a 104 wRC+ rest of season. He’s just not that good.

Jason: Regarding Darvish – would the Dodgers really have to include two of Verdugo/Buehler/Alvarez to get a deal done?  If you were the Rangers, would you take one of the three plus some other parts (Calhoun plus ?) for a rental?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers wouldn’t move any of those three for a rental.

Dave Cameron: And I don’t think the kind of offer the Dodgers would make would incentivize Texas to move him.

TJ: If Tex deals Darvish wouldn’t they want to listen on Hamels? I can’t see Hamels value going anywhere but down even with his control.

Dave Cameron: Not if they think they can re-sign Darvish this winter.

Dave Cameron: Could be a trade and then we’ll bring you back next year situation.

Nate: What could the Giants realistically get in a trade for Samardzija?

Dave Cameron: If someone takes the whole contract, maybe a B or C prospect or two. If they eat some, maybe something real.

Moltar: Most of the chatter about the Dodgers acquiring pitching comes with the caveat that they don’t need another starter to reach the postseason. But shouldn’t that mean they should be planning now for their postseason rotation? Even if fully healthy, Kershaw has been forced to start on short rest too many times in recent memory, and the Dodgers should leverage their resources to make sure that does not need to happen again this year

Dave Cameron: Alex Wood and Rich Hill are good. Kenta Maeda is fine. They don’t need to start Kershaw on short rest even without another starter.

Brian Cashman: What’s your view on the Yankees seemingly feeling more comfortable trading outfield prospects (Rutherford, maybe Florial now) because they already have Judge, Frazier, and Fowler as young outfielders? Should that matter when deciding which of their top prospects to trade?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think that’s really a factor.

Dave Cameron: They traded Rutherford before his hype wore off.

Derek: Which of the Cubs’ young, valuable, major league pieces would you be most willing to part with as part of a package for a controllable starting pitcher?

Dave Cameron: I’d have traded Schwarber a while ago.

Dave Cameron: But they like him more than I do.

JB: Complete a fair transaction.  Cubs acquire Verlander and J Wilson from Tigers for _______.

Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on how much money DET is sending.

Aron: Is currently-projected-to-be-worth-2.4 wins Jarrod Dyson a candidate for a QO? Seems unlikely, but seems like a win-win – either he declines it and the Mariners get a pick or he accepts it and Dipoto has a coveted speed/defense guy on a one year deal headed into his decline years.

Dave Cameron: No way he gets a QO.

James: Why will Sonny Gray command such a big return? He’s never been worth 4 wins in a season – and is projected to be worth 3 this year – and was hurt last year. I think I’m missing something about why he’s so coveted.

Dave Cameron: He’s an above-average big league pitcher. That is valuable.

Mike Milligan: Thanks for the chat. I’ve agreed with Friedman hanging on to prospects up until now but….Kershaw is a ? right now. Hill and Wood are great but injury risks. Dodgers need Darvish. Pitching prospects get hurt too so send them Alvarez or Buehler and go for it.  I know you disagree

Dave Cameron: Darvish just came back from TJ last year and is running the lowest K% of his career. It’s not like he’s any sure thing.

Kim: Can you humor me and suggest what a return for Paxton might look like?

Dave Cameron: A little less than Quintana.

yojiveself: do the phillies stick with the blueprint (amass and develop young arms) or do they recognize that they can afford a huge payroll and start adding pieces in free agency?

Dave Cameron: They spent a decent amount of money on FAs over the winter. Most of them sucked.

Dave Cameron: Rebuilding through FA is a bad idea.

Babe Lincoln: Some Mets people have suggested hanging onto Bruce and making him a QO.  Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Making him a QO would be a great way to pay a guy $18M to be a backup corner OF next year.

Dave Cameron: He’s not as good as Cespedes or Conforto. Let him go.

Morris Buttermaker: I dont think I’ve seen a blockbuster for 10 years. Get Netflix!

Dave Cameron: There’s one about two miles from me.

Zock Jr.: I have to admit, Rafael Devers is adorable. He looks like my 11-year old nephew. But with much better pitch recognition.

Dave Cameron: If he can grow facial hair, he should, immediately.

Phil: The Rangers have 20% playoff odds, and as a rental, Yu Darvish won’t return a Chris Sale-like package. Why should they trade him?

Dave Cameron: That’s my guess on why they won’t.

Gorky: May have missed it, but your evaluation of the Tyler O’Neill/Marco Gonzales swap?

Dave Cameron: Not a huge O’Neill guy, and the fact that the market for corner OFs has cratered means that corner OF prospects aren’t worth what their prospect rankings might suggest. But Gonzales is also kind of meh.

JD15: Feel like while the Dodgers are the best team in the NL (and probably baseball), they should really be trying hard for a guy like Britton (similar to Cubs and Chapman last year). Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Britton doesn’t look healthy to me. I’d probably try to get Justin Wilson instead.

Bert: If the Cards packaged Grichuk and one of their pitching prospects, what kind of bat could they get?

Dave Cameron: Who is the best bat on the market you’d trade Grichuk for, realistically?

Dave Cameron: This isn’t a great time to be trying to add core players. There aren’t many out there.

Jordan: speaking of the worst contract in baseball, when do we get the negative trade value?

Dave Cameron: Next week, hopefully. Plan is to use it as a way to discuss August waiver trades.

Matt: The A’s have had rumored interest in NYY prospects like Florial and Mateo, but there’s no way this deal goes through without someone like Torres as the centerpiece, right?

Dave Cameron: You’re not getting Torres for Sonny Gray.

Jordan: Hi Dave Can a team add dead money (as in the player is no long in the organization) to a trade, so lets say the RedSox wanted to make a big move and go for either Donaldson or Machado, could they add in some/all the monies owed to Pablo and sweeten the prospect return?

Dave Cameron: No, once a player is out of the organization, you don’t have any ability to assign his contract any more. If they wanted cash to actually send to Sandoval, they would just have to ask for cash in the deal, but it wouldn’t be announced as cash for Sandoval’s contract.

Jason: Do you like the Cahill move for the Royals as much as Jeff does?

Dave Cameron: I think it’s a reasonable gamble, but I wouldn’t count on Cahill keeping this up.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Let’s consider a pitcher who generates lousy FIP numbers but keeps runs off the board, and by extent, is generating great RA-9 numbers. Regarding the WAR that is credited using the two measures – is the difference between the WAR measures as defined by (RA-9 WAR) – (FIP-WAR) that in RA-9, it’s getting credited to the pitcher, and in FIP, it’s getting credited to the various defensive players?  Sorry if that sounded word salad-y, it was the best I could do to articulate the question.

Dave Cameron: Basically, yes. FIP gives the pitcher zero responsibility for the results of non-HR batted balls (obviously wrong) and RA9 gives the pitcher all responsibility for the results of non-HR batted balls (also obviously wrong).

Dave Cameron: The one adjustment here is that we count infield flies as strikeouts in FIP-based WAR, since they are outs 99.9% of the time, and require no fielder skill.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Shipping off Cordell for Swarzak on a team hovering around 10% playoff expectancy seems like a sub-optimal decision, right?

Dave Cameron: Cordell looks like nothing you care about losing.

T: Can you explain the difference between the gambler’s fallacy and regression to the mean? If Taylor Motter goes 4-4 one night, don’t both principles apply to project his 5th at bat?

Dave Cameron: The gambler’s fallacy is believing that regression to the mean adjusts the odds of future outcomes so that the total, including already completed events, equal the expected result from before those positive events occurred.

Dave Cameron: So if Motter goes 4-4, you don’t expect him to make an out in his next at-bat to even things out. You expect him to get a hit at whatever his expected hit-per-at-bat level is at that point.

Carlton: What are the Orioles doing? Why wouldn’t blow up the team and trade Machado and Britton?

Dave Cameron: Angelos isn’t a fan of rebuilding.

The Man With No Name: Re Tigers and Calhoun:  are you suggesting a Kinsler+Wilson for Calhoun+ deal?  Any chance the O’s can get him for Britton?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers don’t need Kinsler.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think Calhoun and something could be a Britton package. But I’m way of Britton right now and would trade for a lower-risk arm if I was LA.

MR: re: players getting traded and playing for the opposing team.  What if they’re playing a double-header, could the traded player play in the second game?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Paul: I do want extra credit for taking a 3-0 middle middle fastball over the fence against Sale.  I had to work the count to 3-0 against one of the very best pitchers in baseball to set up that advantageous count in the first place!

Dave Cameron: What if he just missed the plate by a foot each time?

Thom: Hypothetically, if Kershaw underwent career-ending back surgery tomorrow, would he get into the Hall of Fame given the 10-year career rule? They’d have to make an exception, right?

Dave Cameron: I’d vote in favor of changing the rule, but the Hall of Fame doesn’t always care about logic.

Morris Buttermaker: If Pujols is the worst current contract, what is the worst ever. Bobby Bonilla? Josh Hamilton? It would make this Pads fan happy to know that his club is not as toxic as the one who pretends to be in LA.

Dave Cameron: Probably Ryan Howard

Dave Cameron: He was basically 100% dead money about a year or two into his seven year deal.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Now that it’s almost August, it makes me miss August.  Is it fair if we attribute all the Brewers success to him?

Dave Cameron: I think it’s pretty obviously causal.

Zach: If you were Dipoto, do you make Kyle Lewis the centerpiece for Sonny Gray?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Thomas Andrew: A lot of people dismiss the notion of giving Zach Cozart a QO. Assuming health,  he has outproduced $18ish million in value this year and last year.  One year at that value with the upside or a likely draft pick after the second round as a reward seems like a no brainer to me.  What do you think?

Dave Cameron: If you offer it, he takes it, 100%. No chance of a pick.

Pie: Do you enjoy the trade deadline, or find it annoying that you get a bunch of weird/ridiculous hypotheticals coming at you for a couple weeks?

Dave Cameron: I enjoy transactions. The most annoying part is basically having to be “on call” for 2-3 weeks. Would prefer if teams only made trades during business hours!

Mackey: Ozzie Albies and Ian Anderson for Sonny Gray…who says no?

Dave Cameron: Atlanta

LegallyEagle: If no one wants Verlander’s contract in whole, safe to assume he clears waivers post-deadline? If so, Detroit’s best bet then is for a contender to have a last minute playoff-starter need?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. I think their best bet is to move him in mid-August to whatever team doesn’t get an SP at the deadline and finds themselves needing an arm.

Ben: What’s the downside for the Nats going after Gray in earnest? Offers you insurance for Strasburg or pushes one of your good starters in for bullpen help if Stras comes back 100% Anything short of Robles, you do it right?

Dave Cameron: Diminishing returns.

Dave Cameron: Roark or Gio don’t profile as the kinds who would be relief aces in October.

Dave Cameron: So you’re bumping a solid starter for no real reason.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Are the Nats one of the teams in on Sonny Gray? I would have to think so, given that they just gave Edwin Jackson and his  >8 FIP a start in the rotation, but maybe I’m just overreacting, and they have guys coming back soon (honestly don’t know their SP health situation, I don’t follow the team that closely)

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they’re really in on him.

Andy LaRoche: Moving highly regarded but unproven prospects is *exactly* what the Dodgers should be doing this week. They’re already going to be competitive for the next few seasons at worst, and this is their best chance in a generation to win it all. Counting on Hill, Wood, Maeda to all be healthy and effective is a silly, silly gamble.

Dave Cameron: Welcome to two years ago, when the Dodgers were idiots for not giving up Corey Seager for Cole Hamels.

Dooduh: Nah re Bruce.  He’s a fine RFer.  The defensive metrics don’t really match up well with the reality on him.  He’s a solid professional in RF.  Also having a fine year with the stick.  It’s simply a lack of demand for an OFer corner right now.  This is not about Bruce.  He’ll do fine on the FA market next winter when more teams are involved.  The Mets will almost certainly QO him.

Dave Cameron: Fans gave him a 42 rating in the FSR last year, the worst of his career. His “fine year” with the stick is a 121 wRC+. So at his best, he’s a slightly above average hitter with poor defense. He’s 30.

Dave Cameron: There’s a reason no one wants to trade for him right now. He’s not very good.

Babe Lincoln: What are your thoughts on Conforto in CF?

Dave Cameron: Not a long term solution.

Reginald Denton III: Are you serious about the Blockbuster near you? I didn’t think there were any left…

Dave Cameron: http://thatoregonlife.com/2017/03/blockbuster-video-still-thing-oregon…

TKDC: According to Google, the only Blockbusters still in existence are in Alaska (9) and Texas (3).

Dave Cameron: Maybe I’ll chat from my local blockbuster next week…

Matt: Mike Petriello share a tweet suggesting that maybe Ellsbury + prospects for Shark should happen, could help both clubs. What are your thoughts on this?

Dave Cameron: Those would have to be some good prospects.

Sasha: Jeff mentioned the other week that Quintana would have slightly better value than DeGrom (same amt of control but with team options). I understand the value of that contract, but I really don’t see why Q could have more value. DeGrom is a bonafide ace (top 5-7) who can take over games whereas Q has been a consistent top 20ish guy. For playoff teams, the former has to be much more valuable

Dave Cameron: deGrom is not a top 5-7 pitcher in MLB.

Dave Cameron: Sorry.

Go Dodgers : Buehler, Verdugo and Calhoun for DeGrom- Mets can’t turn that down can they?

Dave Cameron: And Dodgers aren’t dumb enough to offer that.

Joey: Quick correction Dave: Upton has 4/88 left not 5/110. Does that change whether you think he opts out?

Dave Cameron: Hmm, maybe. That makes it close to market value.

Dave Cameron: Wouldn’t be that shocking if he opted out of that and tried to get a fifth year again.

Raindog: I get that Detroit needs a rebuild, but I don’t understand how paying someone to take Verlander helps that.  Does the ~$50M they save really help them invest in prospects?  Is whatever B-grade prospect they get a serious benefit?  Why not keep the franchise icon for the sake of the fans, while still selling players whose prospect return will actually help the franchise

Dave Cameron: Do fans want to watch Justin Verlander become awful on a losing team? Did Phillies fans really enjoy having Ryan Howard at the end?

Dave Cameron: Yes, you can buy a lot of new talent with $50 million.

Erik: Neshek, Nava, and Kendrick are all playing well enough to flip for at least something, right? Do the Phillies get enough from those three to make this a “successful” season in some weird definition of that word?

Dave Cameron: Neshek will get you something. The others, no.

Peter: I’m not saying this would ever happen, but if Otani and Darvish were actually best friends, with the same agent (not sure if this is true), and the agent leaked that Otani is going where ever Darvish goes this summer (in this hypothetical Otani gives up his own massive contract to come a year early), wouldn’t it be financially prudent for a team to spend ~$500 million on Darvish to get both? Would the CBA allow this or is there a rule against young/restricted players packaging with free agents.

Dave Cameron: If it was obvious that this was happening, MLB would stop it.

Dave Cameron: The Red Sox got punished for this kind of packaging of international free agents.

Cash Considerations: Who’s the most likely player to get traded in August?

Dave Cameron: Some expensive back-end starter. Maybe Liriano?

Erik: Have you seen the Brewers do anything that makes you think, “Oh, August definitely would have been pushing for that one”?

Dave Cameron: DId they do do a man-bun bobblehead yet?

Brett: Dave… Quintana was able to fetch a top 5 prospect.  I’ll grant you that he’s been more consistent over the past 3 years, but Gray is pitching better than him this season.  You’re suggesting the A’s won’t get a top 50 prospects for Gray.  That’s nuts.

Dave Cameron: Contracts aren’t the same, Quintana wasn’t hurt last year.

Dave Cameron: And Eloy isn’t really a top 5 prospect. He’s just being ranked that way.

Erik: If there ever were a player for whom the defensive metrics didn’t match up with reality in any consistent manner, what would the characteristics of that player be?

Dave Cameron: Probably a weird-bodied middle infielder who was really good at positioning? Jhonny Peralta, basically.

Pablo Devers: Eloy isn’t a top 5 prospect, he’s just ranked that way? Does that make any sense to you Dave?

Dave Cameron: His skillset is overvalued by those who do public prospect rankings relative to what MLB teams are valuing these days.

Sleepy: “You’re not getting Torres for Sonny Gray.”  I mean, the Yanks got Torres for, like, 25-ish innings of Aroldis Chapman.  That’s more valuable than 2.5 years of Sonny Gray?

Dave Cameron: The Cubs wildly overpaid for Chapman. No one is recreating that deal.

Dave Cameron: Okay, have to wrap this up for today.

Dave Cameron: I’ll probably chat on Monday, assuming the moves don’t all get held up until the last minute and force me to just write the whole day.

Dave Cameron: Enjoy deadline week!