Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/30/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Big news of the morning is Mike Leake to Seattle, as the Mariners continue to look for more reliable starting pitchers.

Dave Cameron: Be interesting to see how much of the contract STL is picking up. Can’t imagine M’s took the whole thing.

BeBop: OK, seriously, what do you do if you’re Jeter and Co. regarding Stanton? Trade? Keep? As a Marlins fan I’m so torn.

Dave Cameron: Keep for now. Maybe you explore trading him as he gets closer to the opt-out, but you can’t trade your franchise player right after you take over.

ECinDC: What does the NL Cy Young race look like to you?

Dave Cameron: Scherzer is going to win it.

Mike: Who’s got the better chance to knock off the Dodgers in the NLCS, the Cubs or the Nats? (Or is it a wash?)

Dave Cameron: It’s pretty close.

Nats fan: Do you think Werth will be the starting left fielder for the Nats in the playoffs? Do you think he should be?

Dave Cameron: Probably not.

Dave Cameron: Bat isn’t significant enough to make the defensive trade off.

Bork: So you’ve probably gotten a million questions about this already but…why Mariners, why? Hopefully the other players in the deal explains it a bit more.

Dave Cameron: The Mariners pitching is hot garbage. STL picked up some of the contract. If they got it paid down a bit, could be reasonable.

Dave: If story stays at his current k pace, do you like Brendan Rodgers to take over at any point next year

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably. Though the Rockies have a lot of decisions to make. Have to find a position for Ian Desmond again, now that it’s clear he won’t hit enough to play 1B, which McMahon is probably going to take anyway.

Tim: What do you think of Gallo’s super low BABIP?  Would you expect it to rebound?  6th lowest in last 10 years.

Dave Cameron: He’s an extreme flyball hitter whose well struck fly balls go over the fence. He’s not a .224 true talent guy, but .240ish wouldn’t surprise me.

Dave Cameron: Oh, and he’s an extreme-pull lefty in the age of the shift.

Dave Cameron: That skillset is made for low BABIPs.

Chrissy: Whoch NL wild card has a better chance to make it to WS? COL or ARI?

Dave Cameron: Arizona

THor: You love both  Hoskins and Devers. Who’s the better bat at the end of the day?

Dave Cameron: Devers

Dave Cameron: But Hoskins probably better for the next few years.

Dave Cameron: Career, though, I’d bet on Devers.

Schmaltitude: Rockies holding on for dear life? Offense really struggling this month

Dave Cameron: Yeah, lots of actual problems there, especially with bullpen struggling now.

Dave Cameron: But MIL isn’t a juggernaut and they have a 4 game lead, so they have a good shot at hanging on.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Are Brent Honeywell and Willy Adames just going to stay in AAA until the 2018 super two deadline? Danny Espinosa is getting plate appearances for the Rays.

Dave Cameron: Honeywell just got suspended for discipline, so I doubt he comes up this year now.

Dave Cameron: Adames probably a Sep call up.

Marshawn: Who will end up being the most valuable player out of Moncada, Robles, Acuna, Rosario and Eloy

Dave Cameron: I’d take Acuna

neil: This is a dumb question probably, but in a waiver deal, like this Leake trade, do *both* players have to clear waivers?  So the M’s are getting Leake, are the Cardinals limited to getting a player that (a) cleared waivers or (b) is not on the 40 man roster?

Dave Cameron: If the player is on the 40 man, he’d have to clear waivers too, yes.

Dave Cameron: But that’s why August trades are almost always for non-40 man guys.

Dave Cameron: Or PTBNLs, who can be on the 40 man and just named after the season.

Pennsy: How much better than his closest competition will Anthony Rendon have to be to overcome the collective lack of interest in him around Major League Baseball and take home the NL MVP award?

Dave Cameron: A lot better.

Dave Cameron: He’d probably have to lead the NL in WAR by over a win.

Dave Cameron: And even then

j : Your 2017 AL MVP pick?

Dave Cameron: Chris Sale

anthony: my god they picked up the entire thing… WHY…. Are there GM’s in the league worse then Dipoto at evaluating pitching?

Dave Cameron: They didn’t pick up the whole thing.

Dave Cameron: Team announcement said STL sending cash in the deal. Mike Salk, local Seattle radio guy who is pretty plugged in, tweeted that it sounds like M’s will be on hook for about $12M per year.

Dave Cameron: If they get him at something like 3/40 going forward, nothing wrong with that.

Dave Cameron: (That would assume M’s picked up rest of 2017 money too)

_David_: What is your current outlook on Mitch Haniger’s abilities?

Dave Cameron: About the same as before. Average-ish (maybe slightly above) hitter with solid glove in corner spot, +2 to +3 WAR player.

BESR: Is Eugenio Suarez’s breakout sustainable? If it is, what happens when Senzel is ready?

Dave Cameron: One of them should move to 2B.

John: Why did the Pirates drop Nicasio for nothing?  Even if he was claimed on waivers earlier this month and was pulled back (meaning he couldn’t be traded anymore), what do they gain by releasing their second best reliever?  Seems like there has to be more to the story.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s really weird. Saving $600K is something, I guess, but bizarre to just cut a quality RP.

Dann: Has Arrieta pitched himself back into the massive term & payday he wants this offseason? Definitely looks like the cream of the SP FA crop, and has no injury concerns (beyond the inherent risk of being a pitcher). His July/August looks pretty great.

Dave Cameron: xFIP over 4.00 each of last three months. Don’t think he’s going to get what he wants.

Reese: What have you seen from Amed Rosario thus far? Looks like a stud- major quick twitch athlete with decent feel for the bat at 21 with sneaky power

Dave Cameron: Decent feel for the bat? He has a 67% contact rate.

Dave Cameron: He’s really fast. He looks like a good defensive SS. But the bat has a lot of legitimate question marks.

Dave Cameron: He’s 21, so nothing wrong with still being raw. But short term, there’s real issues here.

JV: Where could Justin Upton land if he is indeed traded in the next 2 days?

Dave Cameron: Given the nothing market for corner OF bats this year, not sure there are any teams left shopping for those.

PF: Acuna or Vlad Jr.? Who’d you take?

Dave Cameron: Vlad.

Jacob’s FariACES: If you’re the Rays’ brain trust, what stopgap 1B do you target? Is there a tangible difference between Morrison, Yonder, Moreland and Duda?

Dave Cameron: Whichever one isn’t signed by February and will take 1/$3M again.

M.J. : FIP is a poor statistic because it favors pitchers with many strikeouts. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Strikeouts are good.

Moltar: Rosario definitely needs to sort out his pitch recognition, take a few walks and cut down on the Ks, but his power is evident and his swing looks effortless. I’d bank on him sorting it out, but 2018 will have some peaks and valleys.

Dave Cameron: His power is not evident. 86 mph average exit velo, 90 mph on fly balls, only 24% of his batted balls are 95+.

Dave Cameron: With that profile, you have to make a lot of contact. He doesn’t, yet. Maybe he will. And his speed gives him a margin for error. But the high-K/low-power combo is super risky, and that’s Rosario right now.

RMR: I haven’t really seen him play, but the way you’re describing Amed Rosario kind of sounds like Tim Anderson.  Similarities there?

Dave Cameron: Yup.

PF: Follow up to Acuna Vlad question…. why Vlad?

Dave Cameron: Bat looks incredibly special. Acuna obviously crushing high-level pitching too, but he might be more of a guy who is very good at a lot of things, while Vlad could be the best hitter in baseball.

Chris Tracy: Is Hoskins the righthanded Schwarber?

Dave Cameron: Hoskins is better

LegallyEagle: % chance Verlander gets traded by tomorrow’s end?

Dave Cameron: I’ll go 10%. I think if someone was going to meet DET’s price, would have already happened.

Infrinjinsin: Isn’t 25% of your batted balls being 95+ about par for the course for power hitters?

Dave Cameron: No, most of the legit power guys are 45-50%. League average is around 40%.

Dave Cameron: Other guys at ~25% of their batted balls 95+: Freddy Galvis, Rajai Davis, Denard Span, Jose Reyes, Jett Bandy, Eric Sogard, Wilmer Difo.

Infrinjinsin: If you were a mid market .500 club GM, would you take 2 free years of Trout or 6 free years of Vlad?

Dave Cameron: Trout

Dave Cameron: If you’re a .500 team and you add a free Mike Trout, you’re now probably the best team in your division.

Ken Rosenthai: “Hoskins is better” may be correct, it might not be correct, but I really thought after all this time we’d wait for an actual sample size before making sweeping judgements. And speaking of Judge(ments), the league will adjust, so I’m gonna wait for a hawt take until we see if Hoskins can adjust back.

Dave Cameron: Rhys Hoskins existed before he got to the Majors, and his minor league data can inform our understanding of what he is. We don’t have a small sample of Hoskins data.

Dave Cameron: And of course pitchers will adjust, but Hoskins has already shown that he can make contact while elevating the baseball. Those things stabilize pretty quickly, and guys who can do those two things are good hitters.

D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe: You were also ready to crown Judge the best power hitter in baseball before the ASB. Rosenthal is right, you need to cool your jets on Hoskins.

Dave Cameron: Judge does have the most power of anyone in baseball.

Dave Cameron: And no one proclaimed him a better hitter than guys like Trout or Harper, so maybe cool your strawman jets.

John H: You mentioned last week something like infield defense isn’t as important as it used to be. Can you explain why that is?

Dave Cameron: Defense in general is less important due to all the strikeouts and home runs these days, but range on the infield has been particularly devalued due to shifts. Now that everyone is positioned better than they used to be, don’t have to have a lot of range to cover holes anymore.

Colin: The only thing  with Hoskins that is really out of whack is his HR/FB, which currently stands at 40%. It’s not unreasonable to think he’ll be close to 20% given his power and the park he plays in. That’s still like 50 HR. Pretty good, I say!

Dave Cameron: Well, yeah, no one can really keep hitting 85% of their XBH as HRs. Every well struck ball he’s hit has left the yard, basically. That’s not going to last.

Doobers: Do you think the DBacks will be tempted to return Archie Bradley to the rotation next year, or is he now in the pen for life? And if he is, can he make it into the Kimbrel/Jansen class of dominance?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think you mess with this.

Dave Cameron: Still no exact word on $ in Leake deal, but there’s this.

Dave Cameron:

Ken Rosenthai: For a speedy SS, isn’t having 15-20 HR potential considered “evident power”? Didn’t sound like people thought he’d be Giancarlo or anything, but he has 4 HR in under 100 ABs with a %17 HR/FB rate. For a speedy middle infielder with plus defense, that sounds like power to me.

Dave Cameron: On one hand, I’m getting accused of overreacting to small samples. On the other hand, 4 HRs is apparently enough to establish power?

Dave Cameron: To hit for sustained power, you have to do one of two things: hit it hard regularly or hit it in the air regularly. Rosario is a low-EV guy with a high-GB%.

Dave Cameron: Doesn’t mean that he can’t change. Bregman’s EV numbers sucked last year.

Dave Cameron: He’s young. He’s obviously a very good athlete.

Dave Cameron: He’s got plenty of potential. He’s also raw as hell and comes with lots of risk.

bleepbloop: Which players do you think would see the most benefit from joining the FB revolutioN?

Dave Cameron: Yandy Diaz

Bryson: Your preferred young duo going forward regardless of money – ozuna stanton or seager  bellinger?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers pair

Jack: How good does Jose Quintana need to be to justify what the Cubs paid for him? Safe to say, he hasn’t even been close so far.

Dave Cameron: He needs to stop giving up dingers. Everything else is fine.

LegallyEagle: Any idea where the freed up money for the Cardinals will be spent on?

Dave Cameron: Lance Lynn, probably.

D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe: Dodgers pair mainly because of the youth or are the players that much stronger in your opinion?

Dave Cameron: I’d rank them Seager-Stanton-Bellinger-Ozuna, so Dodgers win both pairings.

Prich: Would an improvement to the FA compensation system be something like the NFL does: How much did you spend vs how much did the guys you lose get= Your compensation. That way, teams don’t lose picks, but those that ‘can’t’ spend as much get sandwich picks to help rebuild.

Dave Cameron: An improvement in FA compensation would be to get rid of it.

Phil: If Stanton reaches 60+ homers and 7+ WAR, he the likely MVP even if the Marlins don’t reach the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know. He’d get votes, but I could still see there being enough “has to be on a winning team” voters combining with “homers aren’t everything” voters to give it to someone else.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Dave, the money in the Leake deal may have been the $750k of International Pool.

Dave Cameron: Nope

Dave Cameron: They are separate things

Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s going to be it for me today.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.

Dave Cameron: We’ll do it again next week.