Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/5/15

Dave Cameron: The trade deadline is over, and now we head for the final few months of the pennant race. So let’s talk deadline recap, awards speculation, or who will end up in the postseason. Or anything else, I guess.

Dave Cameron: Queue is now open. We’ll start in about 15 minutes.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s start this up a few minutes early.

Comment From Tony G.
Hi Dave. Really enjoyed your Red Sox piece. Just wondering what you think the odds are that the Red Sox will trade Uehara or Napoli some time in August?

Dave Cameron: Napoli: 95%. As long as he stays healthy for another few weeks, he’ll end up on a contender, maybe STL as a better platoon partner for Brandon Moss. Uehara won’t clear waivers, I don’t think, so I’d guess he’ll stay.

Comment From Brian
Are we to the point where we can legitimately discuss Jake Arrieta being a top 10 starting pitcher in the MLB?

Dave Cameron: There is so much good pitching in baseball right now, so that’s a tough nut to crack. You have the Kershaw/Felix/Sale/Price/Scherzer group that I think everyone would agree are top 10 guys with no arguments. Then you have Kluber, Greinke, Fernandez, Greinke, Lester, Cole, Bumgarner, Cueto, deGrom, Keuchel, Carrasco, Archer…

Dave Cameron: Arrieta is in that second group. How you pick just five of those, I don’t know.

Comment From George is Curious
The White Sox did nothing at the deadline and have now lost 5 of 6. If they keep falling further out of contention, do you see them moving Samardjiza and Ramirez?

Dave Cameron: Samardzija won’t clear waivers. Ramirez, maybe, but at this point, he’s not going to fetch much, so they’ll probably just keep everyone together and try to make a run.

Comment From Stuafoo
Maybe a crazy question, but since you have a HOF ballot you seem like the best person to ask (also gonna assume you’re in favor of his enshrinement anyway). In an admittedly small sample size, the Mariners with Edgar Martinez as hitting coach are like a top 5 offense. So let’s assume it’s him that’s sparked the improvement in guys like Zunino. Are there any cases where a guy’s performance as a coach made a difference in his being inducted as a player?

Dave Cameron: I don’t have a HOF ballot. I’m in the BBWAA, and might get one in another 7 years if I stay in the BBWAA and they don’t change the rules to keep people like me out, but I’m not actually expecting to get a HOF ballot, honestly. I’d bet by the time I’m eligible, the voting pool will be selected differently.

Dave Cameron: As to your question, players and coaches are generally evaluated separately.

Comment From merv throneberry
Odds of a Subway Series again this year?

Dave Cameron: Slim. At best, the Mets are the 5th/6th best team in the NL. Getting to the playoffs is one thing, but then beating two of LA/STL/PIT/WAS once they get there is not so easy.

Comment From Garrett
Dave, do you think Norris and Fulmer could be in the Tigers rotation as early next year and Boyd contributing out of the bullpen?

Dave Cameron: I’d flip Boyd and Fulmer in your scenario.

Comment From Grant
Who have you got for AL MVP right now?

Dave Cameron: Trout. There are no other options, only a race for second.

Comment From Craig
Dave–Say you were handed AJ Preller’s job in San Diego, but were given this dictate from ownership: we need to field a team that tries to win now in 2016. How would you go about trying to accomplish this goal? Is the Kobiyashi Maru a more solvable scenario?

Dave Cameron: Ask them how much of their future they are willing to punt to try and win next year. If they say all of it, then you just keep right on gutting what’s left of the farm system and young talent, pushing in on as many win-now trades as you can, and take a bunch of flyers on risky upside guys. It probably won’t work, but it would give them the best chance of winning next year before a huge crash in 2017.

Comment From Give me hope
Do the O’s have a realistic chance of hanging on for the 2nd wild card?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. I bet Toronto runs away with it.

Comment From Will
Prediction for the two NL wild card teams?

Dave Cameron: Cubs and Pirates.

Comment From Brett
Does any team seriously have a chance in a playoff series against Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, & Matz?

Dave Cameron: For your consideration, the 1990s Braves.

Comment From Gibby
When umpires “look at replay”, they put on headphones, then are they looking at a Jumbotron of the play or are they calling somewhere else where they look at the replay and give them the decision of what they see?

Dave Cameron: They’re talking to the replay HQ is NYC. The replay umpire there tells them what the call should be.

Comment From Tommy+Lasordid
Post trade deadline, what are your picks for division winners and wild cards?

Dave Cameron: Astros/Royals/Yankees, Angels/Blue Jays, and Dodgers/Cardinals/Nationals, Cubs/Pirates.

Comment From lunch
did anything happen at the trade deadline that really surprised you? maybe padres doing nothing?

Dave Cameron: That and the Tulo trade. The Rockies just didn’t seem all that interested in moving him, and then they trade him for kind of a meh package.

Comment From musky smell
Do the Dodgers now have the best farm system in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Red Sox system is very good too, but yeah, it’s probably LAD.

Comment From Luke
Can the Rangers move the Choo or Andrus deals? Best case – wait for a renaissance, absorb 50% of the $, and receive a spec or better contributor in return? I’m hoping there are better younger players who could produce more than Choo (Mazara?) and play better defense than Andrus (Alberto?), but that’s hard to see while they’re blocked …

Dave Cameron: There’s no way a team takes half of either of those deals.

Dave Cameron: You could maybe get out of 25% of them. Maybe.

Comment From Houzer
Hypothetically … someone claims VMart and offers the Tigers to take all of his salary and offers a tin of chew in return .. should they take this? Put the money into locking up Heyward?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if they could dump the 2/$36M he has left over the next two years, that’s an easy yes. No one would claim him though.

Comment From David
What trade do you think was the biggest overpay or underpay?

Dave Cameron: Rob Kaminsky for Brandon Moss seemed like a high price for STL to pay for a platoon guy with a bad hip having a mediocre season. And the Tulo deal was probably the cheapest acquisition of a high-level player we’ve seen at the deadline in a while.

Comment From Mike
I’m hoping you can clarify the Cespespes contract situation. There seems t be confusion over if the Mets can extend/re-sign him.

Dave Cameron: They can extend him, but they have to do it within five days of the end of the season, meaning that he’d have to re-sign with them without testing free agency. Once they release him — as they have to, per his contract — they can’t re-sign him until May 15th of 2016. So if he wants to test the market, they can’t re-sign him, effectively.

Comment From Brandon
When did Millers park turn into such a big home run park? brewer’s pitchers are 1st in homers allowed on the road and last at home.

Dave Cameron: It has always been a hitter’s paradise.

Comment From Dan
Any chance the Dodgers call up Seager to fill in at SS and 3B while Turner is out?

Dave Cameron: He’s been a league average hitter in the PCL, and he’s not a defensive wizard. He wouldn’t help them now.

Comment From Yo, Cespedes!
Denard Span get a QO?

Dave Cameron: He should, yes.

Comment From Rod Allen
Is it more shocking that the Tigers released Dombrowski yesterday or that they quickly signed his #2 guy to a 5 year contract? Isn’t a Dombrowski disciple not going to help the Tigers problems (drafting and bullpen)?

Dave Cameron: John Mozeliak was one of Walt Jocketty’s top lieutenants, but is a very different GM. We shouldn’t assume Avila is going to be Dombrowski’s clone.

Comment From Ben
What position player gets paid the most this winter?

Dave Cameron: Heyward or Cespedes, depending on how the last two months go. It should be Heyward.

Comment From Yo, Cespedes!
Daniel Murphy get a QO?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Houzer
Assuming the Tigers have JV, Anibal, Norris, and Fullmer/Greene, in the rotation next year, should they sign an Ace to front that rotation? Or is someone like Zimmerman or Kennedy enough?

Dave Cameron: The point of trading for all this young pitching is so that they didn’t have to get sucked into signing FA pitching, which is usually a terrible way to spend money. Roll with Norris/Boyd and a mid-level veteran for the back-end, then spend on position players instead.

Comment From JJJJShabado
I believe you’ve mentioned that you have a nanny for your son. Did you get him/her through a service or other means? Is it working out well?

Dave Cameron: She was recommended by a friend. She’s great. We’re definitely making some sacrifices in order to have her watch Drew at the house — it means i have to do a lot more child care than I would if he was in full-time day care — but it’s been worth it, easily.

Comment From CT
How many games would a roster full of replacement level players win over the course of a season on average?

Dave Cameron: Replacement level is set at .300, which works out to about 48.5 wins per 162 games.

Comment From Bret
Prediction for David Price’s free agent deal?

Dave Cameron: 7/215, without Scherzer’s deferred money to get there.

Comment From jon
would you say that the Bluejays are the favourite in the AL after the trades they went out and made?

Dave Cameron: No way. No team going through the Wild Card game can be a favorite to win the league.

Comment From Miggy Azalea
regarding the august waiver process…if a claiming and owning team can’t work out a trade, is that player forced to stay with his current club ie can’t be placed back on waivers?

Dave Cameron: Right. If a team claims a guy, you can trade him to that team, let that team have the guy outright, or pull him back. You can’t trade him to anyone else.

Comment From Brian
What are your thoughts on the GM switch from the Tigers POV? Should we expect a dropoff, or is it really impossible to tell at the moment?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think we have enough information to make an educated guess as to what kind of GM Avila will be.

Comment From Cashmere Taco
Do you think, if they keep falling out of contention, the Padres will trade some players this month?

Dave Cameron: Maybe James Shields, since he’d probably clear waivers with 3/$65M left. But most of their good trade chips wouldn’t clear, so they can’t really be moved.

Comment From greg
Could the negotiation of a new television contract after next season have anything to do with the Reds’ reluctance to completely tear down? Should it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it probably does and probably should. If you think a poor product would cost you tens of millions per year in future revenue, then the added value of adding prospects isn’t worth it.

Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry
Hi Dave! No question, just wanted to say you guys did a great job during Deadline week.

Dave Cameron: Thanks! That was a pretty exhausting week. I was looking forward to taking it easy this week, then Carson was like “hey, I’m on vacation”, and then Dombrowski got canned, and I’m still waiting for my break.

Dave Cameron: Next week, I might no be around that much.

Comment From Guesto
Would you rather be Mike Hessman (the MILB HR king) or be a replacement level MLB bench player?

Dave Cameron: Probably the bench guy. Salary many times higher, much more comfortable travel/accommodations, your kids can tell their friends their dad was a big leaguer…

Comment From Max
How is defensive value calculated for guys who spend most of their time at DH?

Dave Cameron: The positional adjustments treat DHs as if they are below average defensive first baseman, since if they could play the field, that’s probably where they’d go.

Comment From Yo, Cespedes!
Nah, Fulmer has a very big arm. Evidently going to surprise lots of people.

Dave Cameron: A lot of guys with very big arms end up in the bullpen.

Comment From Gabe
Let’s say Trout retires after 1-2 more seasons at this same level of output. Would he get your hypothetical HOF vote?

Dave Cameron: The rules state that you have to play 10 seasons to be eligible, so we wouldn’t be allowed to vote for him.

Dave Cameron: But he’s probably ~18 months away from being a legitimate HOFer, yes.

Comment From Guest
prellers playoff comments — this is just to appease the fanbase for that atrocious deadline, right?

Dave Cameron: What else is he going to say?

Comment From Josh G
How surprised were you that the Tigers let Dave Dombrowski go? Any leaders in the clubhouse for his services next year?

Dave Cameron: Not that surprised, besides the timing. There were plenty of rumors he was leaving anyway. Toronto seems like the obvious fit, since they’ve been looking for Beeston’s replacement for a while. But I could see Seattle offering him a big chunk of money to take over there too.

Comment From Guest
Why did Chapman not get traded?

Dave Cameron: Asking price was apparently nutty.

Comment From Larry
Hes probably not on the top (bottom) 5 worst contracts, but how bad is Rick Porcellos deal looking now? Even though Im sure you will have Verlanders as worse, Id have to imagine detroit wouldnt trade him for Porcello, while Boston would at least consider that deal for longer than detroit.

Dave Cameron: There’s no way Boston trades Porcello for Verlander. Not a single chance.

Comment From Julio Pepper
Who starts a one game playoff for the Mets, Harvey or DG?

Dave Cameron: deGrom is just better right now.

Comment From Guest
Why is Upton still a Padre? I have to believe someone offered a better prospect than a pick in the 30s would be

Dave Cameron: No question, they had better offers on the table than the value of a pick. Not taking those offers was a mistake.

Comment From Chris
Thought experiment: would you rather have Andrew Heaney (6 years) and Hector Olivera (6 years) OR Alex Wood (4 years), Howie Kendrick (1 year), Jose Peraza (6 years) ??

Dave Cameron: We’re pretending they didn’t also get Enrique Hernandez and Austin Barnes in the Gordon trade now?

Comment From Francis Ford Colabello
Prediction for biggest name moved in August?

Dave Cameron: James Shields.

Comment From Tony G.
If I were to look at just a 2 or 3 pitching stats to help me understand where a pitcher currently stands which do you suggest?

Dave Cameron: ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-

Comment From Beethoven
Is the Rangers future any brighter than you thought a few months ago? Odor, DeShields & Elvis have all performed significantly better and the rotation looks like it could be top 3 or so in the AL next year

Dave Cameron: Hamels, half a season of Darvish, and a various collection of rehabbing guys are a top three rotation? No, it’s not.

Comment From Ember
Who’s leading the race for 2nd for AL MVP?

Dave Cameron: Donaldson.

Comment From Vance
On the Dodgers sending out money: does sending players out and paying for their contract help them in regards to the luxury tax?

Dave Cameron: No, you still have to pay the luxury tax on money you’re paying to players you trade away if you’re still paying their salary.

Comment From Johnson
Should the Jays look to pickup a lefty bat before the waiver trade deadline? LaRoche?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably aim for a lefty OF. Maybe start Revere in CF and that guy in LF against RHPs in the postseason, then use Pillar as defensive replacement.

Comment From Jon
What’s stopping teams from committing waiver trade sabotage? Like if the Dodgers tried to get a good player with a bad contract, what keeps the Giants from submitting the claim and engaging perfunctory negotiations without intending to come to an agreement? Is it the fear that the original team would take the trade regardless? Unwritten rules? Actual rules?

Dave Cameron: If you put in a claim on a bad contract, you have to be willing to take the contract if the other team just says “hah, thanks, all yours!”

Comment From Josh G
Is there currently any attempt being made to include pitch framing metrics in fWAR calculations?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, we’re working on it. It’s not just a simple adjustment of catcher defensive value, though; you have to re-work pitcher WAR at the same time, because if you’re giving credit to catchers for framed pitches, you have to take that credit away from the pitchers. So, it’s a major change, and not one we want to do haphazardly.

Comment From Baseball nut
Any tips for someone looking to get into baseball writing like you guys do? Or something similarly related in the industry? I find all this stuff fascinating and was hoping to pick your brain a bit.

Dave Cameron: Pick a niche that interests you and get really good at writing about that niche. There are so many generalists out there who just want to write about the news of the day that it’s very hard to stand out in that crowd. But if you become the guy writing about, say, prospect valuation models, you can make a name for yourself.

Comment From eddie
Mark Texeira no shot at MVP?

Dave Cameron: None.

Comment From Alan
While I consider myself pretty baseball literate, after reading Eno’s article about Kluber’s breaking ball, the last line seems contrary to my understanding of pitch movement. I had always assumed that a curve was a pitch with a big hump, and mostly downward movement, while a slider tends to move more horizontally, like it’s sliding. However, he writes, “…[Kluber’s breaking ball] cuts like a curveball, sinks like a slider.” Have I really had my understanding of pitches backwards all these years?

Dave Cameron: There’s a new growing type of slider-grip breaking ball that primarily goes down, not side to side. Think Chris Archer/Gerrit Cole/Craig Kimbrel. That’s why I just call them breaking balls or bendy pitches. The grip doesn’t matter as much as the movement, and while these are technically sliders, they behave like pitches we’ve always called curveballs. That’s why I’d prefer pitches were categorized based on what the batter sees and not how the pitcher holds it in his hand.

Comment From Have you read the comments made by David Price yesterday? Sounds like hes in love with Toronto, would 6/180 get it done?
Shields has an opt out after this season, does he exercise it?

Dave Cameron: Almost certainly not.

Comment From Sagar
If you’re a team with a lot of money like the Dodgers and you see someone like James Shields/Sandoval/Hanley go through waivers, who could help a lot of contending teams. Would you just claim them and hope they pull them back? Or risk having them traded to a competitor?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t claim any of those three if I was LAD. If you really believe all three have negative value, then you want your opponents to claim them; negative value assets do more harm than good.

Comment From Jimmy Johns
You worked hard for a week and now youre exhausted? Welcome to every week for majority of America.

Dave Cameron: Yes, the last week in July is the only week I work hard. The other 51 weeks, content writes itself.

Comment From Alex
If the Padres place Sheilds on waivers and he gets claimed, could they negotiate a trade that involves them also sending a player that wouldn’t clear waivers (like Ross) to the team they’re sending Sheilds to?

Dave Cameron: No. Every player in the trade on the 25 man roster would have to clear individually. You can trade minor leaguers by using the PTBNL workaround, but you can’t use a PTBNL in the majors after the trade is made, so that wouldn’t work for a guy like Ross.

Comment From Mike Honcho
Wife and I have kid #1 on the way, so we are going to need to upgrade one of our cars. We are buying used, and we have the savings that we could reasonably pay cash if we wanted to. Should we do so, or would it be better to finance and invest instead?

Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on what kind of interest rate you can get. If you’re borrowing at 4% or less, finance and stick the rest in your retirement accounts, assuming you haven’t maxed those out yet.

Comment From Bowler
Hi Dave, love the chats! I know you’ve said in the past that teams should want the opposing team’s starter to remain in the game as long as possible, due to the third time through the order penalty. Do you feel that way even when the opposing team’s starter is really good and their bullpen is really bad? Or is the penalty so large than even a terrible bullpen is going to be better than a starter going through the line up a third or fourth time?

Dave Cameron: Almost every major league team has 2-3 relievers that are better than a tiring starter pitcher the 3rd/4th time through the order.

Comment From Catoblepas
Do you think Dombrowski was canned, or was this an amicable departure (or as amicable as a midseason GM change can be)?

Dave Cameron: My guess is that Ilitch knew he was leaving a few months ago and decided to just give Avila a few months head start.

Comment From TwistedLogic
Should the Jays go after Dombrowski? If so, should it be at the cost of losing Anthopoulos, or should they try to run a duo-GM FO like Hoystein and Zaidman?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine Dombrowski’s next job will be at that executive level. His days as primary GM are probably over.

Comment From Compton
Have they told you what awards you are assigned to vote for this year yet?

Dave Cameron: Not yet. Last year, I found out mid-August.

Comment From Marcus Banks
Say Trout has one more elite year like this in 2016, then he loses his ability and sticks around as a 0-1 WAR guy for the next ten years. That gives him 5 elite years and 10 bad ones. Is he still a HOFer?

Dave Cameron: For me, yes.

Dave Cameron: I’m a peak over longevity guy.

Comment From Compton
Thoughts on Preller asking for Goldschmidt when Stewart inquired about Kimbrel? Is Preller more at fault for such a ridiculous offer, or Stewart for making it public?

Dave Cameron: By all accounts, it was a joke that Stewart didn’t get.

Comment From Spiggy
If you were AA, would you offer Estrada a QO?

Dave Cameron: No way.

Comment From Dan
Does Trea Turner replace Ian Desmond before the end of the season?

Dave Cameron: Not with Espinosa around.

Comment From Tanner
Is there a reason why some authors prefer ERA+ and others prefer ERA-?

Dave Cameron: People who use B-R for their data use ERA+ because that’s why B-R provides. ERA- is a better metric, though, and doesn’t break at the extremes like ERA+ does. That’s why we use ERA- and not ERA+ here.

Comment From Sean
Do you see the Diamondbacks being a major contender for Cueto/Price/Zimmermann this offseason?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Phil
If Kershaw approaches or even breaks Hershiser’s record, yet Greinke maintains his current ridiculous ERA level, who wins the Cy Young? We’ll assume it is only between those two for the discussion…

Dave Cameron: I can’t imagine a scenario where the BBWAA doesn’t give the Cy Young to a guy with an ERA under 1.50.

Comment From Guest
Mike Trout’s putting up his best offensive numbers, but his BsR and def are down to the point he won’t match his early-career WAR totals. Is it possible that his best WAR years are behind him due to that alone?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s tough to get to +11 WAR mostly on your bat. But nothing wrong with a sustained +9 WAR peak.

Comment From Guest
Sagar’s point is interesting to the extent that: Shields may have negative value in terms of $/WAR, but he’s still a fine asset. If $/WAR doesn’t matter to you (if you’re the Dodgers, maybe) then why not pay him overmarket? That was the logic for Adrian Gonzalez and it’s worked out fine for them.

Dave Cameron: The guy who made the Adrian Gonzalez deal got fired because that line of thinking is a waste of valuable resources, and he got replaced by people who do evaluate things by cost/benefit analysis.

Comment From klof
the podcast isn’t the same without carson. whatever bag of balls you traded him for, undo it.

Dave Cameron: Call Montreal and tell them you want your Cistulli back. They have him hostage for a few more weeks, though rumor is he will work from the great white north next week.

Comment From dante bichette
question about waiver process: if somebody gets claimed, the return for that player does not have to clear waivers, correct? as i understand it, the waiver claim initiates a separate side deal isolated from the waiver process.

Dave Cameron: No, the guys going back still have to clear, or be PTBNLs.

Dave Cameron: That’s why Rubby de la Rosa was a PTBNL in the Gonzalez/Crawford/Beckett deal.

Comment From Yosted
Small correction: If a player is on the 40 man roster they must clear waivers to be traded. Minor league players not on the 40 can be traded

Dave Cameron: Right, this is an important distinction. You can trade non-40 man guys without putting them through waivers.

Comment From Marcus Banks
What are the differences in duties b/w a GM and a President?

Dave Cameron: Team presidents usually have more involvement in business development side of things, less day-to-day involvement in things like minor league assignments. Still involved in all the high level baseball operations decisions, of course.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
On the podcast you hesitated to doubt the Mets medical staff in nixing a Gomez deal. But a lot of people are suggesting it wasn’t a medical decision at all, and the Wilpons nixed the deal because they didn’t want to commit to $9 million for Gomez for next season, regardless of how much of a bargain that may be. Given the Mets track record for parsimony, don’t you think it’s a real possible the “medical” reasons were just completely bull?

Dave Cameron: That story seems entirely like a plant from MIL sources who wanted to throw dirt at the Mets for walking away from the deal. There’s zero reason to believe that’s true.

Comment From tom
Does Carson have more holidays than the rest of you guys combined or what!?

Dave Cameron: When I told him he travels a lot, he sounded incredulous. Like he doesn’t even realize how much he travels.

Dave Cameron: Alright, started early and ran late, so I should wrap this up and get some more work done. Thanks for hanging out everyone.