Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/6/14

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s talk baseball for an hour or so.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open and we’ll start in about 15 minutes.

Comment From Darth Stout
It’s Wednesday, so let’s talk Javier Baez for an hour or so.

Dave Cameron: The Alfonso Soriano comparison feels lazy, but also feels pretty accurate. Hope you enjoyed the Soriano experience the first time, Cubs fans, because you might just get it again.

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
Apparently the Cards and John Lackey have come to some kind of unofficial agreement about his option for next season. Am I correct in assuming it’ll a 1 or 2 year deal at or slightly above market value to make up for being underpaid for one season?

Dave Cameron: Lackey said after the trade that he will honor the $500,000 option because he likes STL. He also noted he wouldn’t have done that for every city. I still wouldn’t be too surprised if STL made that option go away with a two year deal for real money.

Comment From Ausymptote
What do you think it will take for the Phillies to remove RAJ from his position? Most other teams would have made a move by now, no?

Dave Cameron: I’m completely speculating with no inside information, but I think he gets fired this winter and they start over with someone else.

Comment From JT
Is this the second time you’ve gotten a writer from The Score? Didn’t Eno do a turn there, too?

Dave Cameron: Eno wrote for us before he wrote for them. They hired a bunch of FG people — Wendy Thurm and Jack Moore also — and so we’re just returning the favor.

Dave Cameron: I guess I should note for those who didn’t see it on Twitter: Drew Fairservice, formerly of The Score, is going to write for us. He debuts soon.

Comment From Nathan K
Hey Dave, what’s the general intent of a team that blocks someone on a revocable waiver in August? Is that team made known to the other GM’s and if so are there consequences usually?

Dave Cameron: The intent is to stop your opponents from getting better. The other GMs might not like it, but it’s a completely rational decision.

Comment From Guest
Orioles now have the largest lead in all of baseball! Why are they always considered to be the worst division leader in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Because they’re leading the worst division?

Comment From lunch
The phillies doing nothing was dumb, but it wasn’t exactly surprising. Were there any deadline moves that surprised you?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t have guessed that the Tigers were going to be the team to end up with Price.

Comment From _David_
What do you think of Austin Jackson as a player, and as a return for Nick Franklin in the Mariners situation? I’m not sure you’ve written about it.

Dave Cameron: Above average center fielder, fills a big need. They’d basically eliminated any chance Franklin would have value in Seattle, so it’s a rational trade, if not one that will look great in a few years, especially if Jackson doesn’t re-sign for a below market deal.

Comment From Javier Baez
3 Ks, a scorching LD out, and a 400+ ft HR…..did I self-describe my skillset in 1 game?

Dave Cameron: Pretty much, yeah.

Comment From Vincent
What are the odds that Corey Kluber actually beats out Felix for the Cy Young?

Dave Cameron: I’d say less than 5%. Unless Felix dies down the stretch, the award is his.

Comment From Rob
Can the Cubs compete in 2015? They have a ton of talent on the way, and should be able to spend a ridiculous amount this offseason.

Dave Cameron: It’s not entirely crazy. By BaseRuns, they’re a .500ish team right now.

Comment From Guest
What kind of contract would you offer the Panda?

Dave Cameron: Short and expensive. Maybe 3/60 or 4/75 or something?

Comment From Tryion
FG never respects the O’s talent because the numbers say they have been playing over their heads for 3 years…When do stat guys realize that they just aren’t measuring this teams talent correctly?

Dave Cameron: Maybe you should look into a concept called “random variation”.

Comment From Joe
Dave- Any chance the Cubs open the wallet this winter for Lester, Scherzer, and/or Shields? Isn’t this the perfect time to get a great pitcher or two? Pitchers of this caliber (and relative youth) rarely come on the open market.

Dave Cameron: I could see them going after Scherzer.

Comment From Paul
Re Price deal: everybody praises Dombrowski for the trade, but including his trade of the winter in the picture, I don’t think that (David Price value) > (Fister + Smyly + Jackson) values on the field and $-wise. What do you think? Thanks

Dave Cameron: I think everybody is praising Dombrowski for the Price trade because they’re dramatically underselling the value of Smyly and Franklin. People are far too interested in perceived upside and star potential and not nearly interested enough in quality above average players making no money.

Comment From THE average sports fan
Do you see any pitchers having a David Price type call up for the pennant run?

Dave Cameron: There aren’t any David Price type pitching prospects right now, so no.

Comment From WillieBloomquistButtCyst
What should the Phillies be doing this offseason? Should being the operative word

Dave Cameron: Find a new GM, blow the thing up.

Comment From STiVo
Who do you expect to be the biggest name moved during the waiver trading season?

Dave Cameron: Probably Alex Rios.

Dave Cameron: In other words, big names aren’t moving.

Comment From Jeff
Dave – really enjoyed the piece estimating the cost of a win acquired midseason. Does it substantially change the analysis in the case of a trade like Samardzija if Oakland were to deal him in the offseason? The cost of his additional wins should then not just be whatever the A’s paid, but whatever the A’s paid – whatever they receive in return? I know this is no longer “midseason” and thus might not fit into your discussion, but that has to matter for executives making these kinds of calculations, yes? It seems like your model works much better for pure rentals (especially since there is no need to estimate the cost of draft pick compensation).

Dave Cameron: If you buy a car for $35,000, drive it for six months, and then sell it for $25,000, you don’t say the new car only costs $10,000; you pro-rate that cost to the short amount of time you owned the vehicle. So, yes, the A’s could reclaim some percentage of the value they lost by trading away Russell, but it would be a fraction of the price they paid.

Dave Cameron: That’s why the A’s traded for Samardzija and not Price, by the way. Samardzija they can keep; Price they couldn’t.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
What’s a Pythagorean record? I saw that on a Fangraphs chat and wasn’t familiar with it.

Dave Cameron: It’s an estimate of expected wins based on runs scored and runs allowed.

Comment From Ausymptote
Where does Wade Davis fit in in a “best reliever in baseball” conversation?

Dave Cameron: Somewhere on the outside of the conversation.

Comment From Skore
If you were forced into the role of GM, what would you do differently than the rest of the league?

Dave Cameron: Hire an actually qualified GM to tell me what to do.

Comment From Bryce Harpers Mom
I was shocked to discover that a HBP is an AB, not a PA. Why do they score it that way? It hurts a player’s avg. if he gets hit.

Dave Cameron: That’s not true.

Comment From Justin
Re: Cole Hamels — in one sentence, Rob’s position is that he’s relatively inexpensive to keep, and your position is that that is what makes him much more valuable of a trade asset (and therefore can speed up the rebuild process) — is that fair?

Dave Cameron: I’d say my position is more that Hamels is a depreciating asset, and rebuilding teams shouldn’t hang onto those.

Comment From Bret
Very pumped that you’ve hired Drew Fairservice! How often should we expect to see his work?

Dave Cameron: Several times per week.

Comment From David
How do you avoid redundant research/writing about baseball? Do you just have a strong sense of what’s already out there due to the nature of your work, or is there a process you have to survey the literature?

Dave Cameron: It’s basically impossible. I try to keep up with what’s been written, but there are so many people writing about baseball now that it’s inevitable that we’re going to cover ground already covered.

Comment From Ryan
But this time the Soriano experience costs us ~$100 million less!

Dave Cameron: Yes, that should make it more enjoyable.

Comment From Skore
If Franklin was traded to a team considered less smart than the Rays, would people be as optimistic about his upside?

Dave Cameron: If they’re rational, sure. The projections suggested Franklin was something like an average player long before TB acquired him. The key is that the Rays actually value cheap average players, while fans do not.

Comment From Chris
Any reason for the Orioles not to put a claim in on Chase Utley with that awful, glaring need at 2B? (I understand that Schoop could be the future and Utley has another year on his deal.)

Dave Cameron: Utley has a no-trade and doesn’t want to waive it.

Comment From Ryan
What is Buehrle’s trade value in the offseason? Wouldn’t it be smart for the Blue Jays to trade him then sign someone like McCarthy?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but it would be smart of the other teams to not trade for Buehrle and sign McCarthy themselves.

Comment From STiVo
What would it mean for Lackey *not* to honor the $500,000 option?

Dave Cameron: He could have simply told whichever team traded for him that he wanted an extension/raise or he’d retire. You can’t force a guy to play .

Comment From someone
Is Wendy done here then?

Dave Cameron: No, Wendy still writes for us. I was referencing FG writers who had also written for The Score before they got rid of all their writers.

Comment From Helladecimal
Do you think Beane & Co. felt confident moving Cespedes because they liked what they saw in Reddick

Dave Cameron: No. I think they were okay moving Cespedes because they got a better player in return.

Comment From Xolo
Thoughts on the Padres hiring of Preller?

Dave Cameron: It should be a pretty big culture change for that organization. Preller was basically known for two things in Texas: helping the Rangers win the international market on a regular basis and pissing people off in the process.

Comment From MarinerDan
Who wins the NL MVP?

Dave Cameron: Kershaw, I think. Would think Puig had a better chance of winning if sportswriters didn’t hate him.

Comment From Mike
Do the projections systems have every prospect panning out (at least to some degree)? Or do the take into account the history of prospet failure. For example, in yiur piece where you said no to the Hamels for 3 top prospects, you had all 3 of those guys workung out rather well – when I’d assume history would disagree.

Dave Cameron: No, I didn’t have all three guys working out well. The value of a prospect is based on both the potential reward and the likelihood of reaching that reward. If you have a $10 million lottery ticket with a 10% chance of success, you have a $1 million asset, even though there’s a 90% chance it’s actually worthless.

Comment From Naveen
Why do you think that people have such a hard time accepting that some events occur due to random variation and not some discernible cause?

Dave Cameron: People hate the idea of randomness.

Dave Cameron: And they especially hate it as an explanation for why their favorite team isn’t as good as they want it to be.

Comment From Krazy George
The best part of having Cistulli as a house guest is _____. The worst part is _____.

Dave Cameron: Liberty loved him. Liberty hated seeing him leave.

Comment From Skore
is there a pitcher alive who should be allowed to pitch into the eighth inning of a postseason game?

Dave Cameron: Depends on pitch count, number of batters faced, score, etc… If it’s not close, sure, save the bullpen. If it is close, maybe Kershaw.

Comment From Trevor
In your piece advocating a Hamels trade you state that Jered Weaver has declined significantly since being a top-10 pitcher by WAR from 08-12. How significantly has he declined? My perception is he’s adapted well to pitching with diminished stuff.

Dave Cameron: His 97 ERA- is the second worst mark of his career.

Dave Cameron: He might very well be adapting, but he’s adapted into a less effective pitcher.

Comment From MarinerDan
Who are you highest on among all the Cubs young guys: Alcantara, Baez, Bryant, Russell, …

Dave Cameron: Bryant and Russell, big gap, everyone else.

Comment From Dustin White
I’m not a Cubs fan, but I do believe their rebuild is on the right track. Yet there are detractors who really focus on the lack of top-flight pitching prospects in their system. Do these detractors have a legit concern, or are they grasping at straws?

Dave Cameron: PItching is the easy part.

Dave Cameron: The Cubs are doing gerat.

Dave Cameron: Unlike my ability to spell.

Comment From Shay from New Rochelle
What is BaseRuns?

Dave Cameron: The most accurate model of estimating run scoring given the basic event types: single, double, walk, home run, etc…

Comment From Justin
Do you expect Joc or Seager to be in the Opening Day lineup for the Dodgers in 2015?

Dave Cameron: Pederson maybe, Seager no.

Comment From Skore
listening to the Brewer’s broadcast, which is actually decent, on Sandoval’s defense, you would think that he is Miggy with an arm. Yet this is his second season of being a very valuable defensive third baseman. Will people ever see past the girth

Dave Cameron: He’s a very good defensive third baseman. The inability of people to evaluate defense by anything other than size is a reason why the eye test doesn’t really work.

Comment From Guest
I totally understand and agree with the o’s as the posterboys of random variation, but in theory how long would a player/team have to consistently do something weird for the models to change?

Dave Cameron: You’d have to prove that they are more than two standard deviations from the mean over a significant period of time. The Angels routinely beat their expected records for years, and people presumed that Mike Scioscia was a wizard, and then it magically went away, and no one has ever really explained why.

Comment From cate, not doge
Since the Tigers traded for Price, is there any chance they re-sign Scherzer? And if they don’t re-sign Scherzer, do they extend Price?

Dave Cameron: I’d say there’s no chance at all they re-sign Scherzer.

Comment From THE average sports fan
What happens if a player with no trade clause is claimed on waivers?

Dave Cameron: He still has the right to veto the move.

Comment From Grant
You’re the son of mechanics, so I’ve got a car question. My car (2011 BMW 135i) just had a light come on this morning saying “low coolant”, then go back off about 10 seconds later and not return. Is this trouble? Apparently I can only go to the dealership to get it fixed and I really don’t want to do that if I don’t have to

Dave Cameron: Google “import mechanic (your city here)” and call and ask them. There’s no reason you should have to take the car to the dealer.

Comment From Poops
C’mon, we’re going on over 400 games over the past 2 3/4 years and we’re still playing the “Orioles are a mediocre team lucking into their .550 winning %” card? Is it possible the FanGraphs analysis isn’t accurately measuring this team?

Dave Cameron: Am I the only one who saw the Orioles not be very good last year?

Comment From Alex
Can you explain the Jacob Turner DFA? Can’t wrap my head around it.

Dave Cameron: Well, he’s not very good.

Comment From Dylan
I’m hearing the “Price makes too much money” stuff a lot. But that only matters to some of the teams in baseball. If you are the Yankees, Tigers, or Dodgers money doesn’t seem to be a factor. While Franklin and Smyly have value, they have more value to the Rays than Tigers. Price has more value to the Tigers because he is better and money isn’t a big factor. I am skeptical of payroll restrictions anyways. They seem very artificial when all teams are making money

Dave Cameron: This is 100% wrong.

Comment From Garth Vader
Would you be for or against a rebuilding team signing an elite player just to trade him a few months later? At least ethically. Let’s say Houston signed Robinson cano and he didn’t have a NTC then they flipped him last week for prospects.

Dave Cameron: At the price it would take a team like Houston to sign Cano, he would have negative trade value.

Comment From Dave
Re: Hamels – you’ve also written in the past that tearing things down and being terrible for several years can have serious negative ramifications for the franchise. I don’t think an Astros style makeover is the right move for a franchise with the Phillies resources

Dave Cameron: I’ve never advocated for the Phillies to do that. Trading Hamels != being the Astros. Trade him and be the 2013 Red Sox if you want. There’s nothing to stop the Phillies from re-spending the money they would otherwise pay Hamels.

Comment From Sandy
Is it hard living in a state that doesn’t have an MLB team?

Dave Cameron: Not really. The value of attending a game in person isn’t particularly high for me personally.

Dave Cameron: That doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy it, but it doesn’t really have a huge positive impact on my job.

Comment From Glenn
How silly will you feel when the Orioles win the division? At the beginning of the year, you said they weren’t a very good team and, as of a week ago, still dismissed their chances of taking the East.

Dave Cameron: How would you feel if you told me a coin had a 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails and then landed on heads five times in a row?

Comment From JWR
But “cheap average players” only matter if you have some star-type players at the top to push you to the playoffs, right?

Dave Cameron: Not really. If you get 15 average players, the simple properties of variation mean that several of them will perform like stars for a year.

Dave Cameron: It remains a mystery to me that people can continue to reject the notion of the value of a balanced roster of non-stars in the same year that the A’s are the best team in baseball.

Comment From Richie Rich
Since players have to clear waivers to be traded this month, can they only be traded for prospects or other major leaguers who also cleared waivers? How does that work?

Dave Cameron: Teams get around that by trading them for players to be named later. You have six months to name a PTBNL, so they just wait until the waiver process is over and then name the player. The catch is that a player cannot appear in the majors after the trade, so you can’t PTBNL some guy on your big league roster.

Comment From Mark
Realistically, could Mike Trout be the best baseball player of all time?

Dave Cameron: Not unless he also learns how to pitch.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Cespedes strikes me as the classic avoid giving big money out to guy. Flashy. But plays a corner OF spot. Powerful. But an only-above average-ish offensive player. Someone gives him $100M. Amaro, ya listening??

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s difficult to see a scenario in which Cespedes is anything but a free agent landmine.

Comment From JCA,CA
Why aren’t more teams selling at the deadline if the return on investment is around $15 mil/war? seems like the easiest way to build a strong team (i.e. how the cubs have been rolling)

Dave Cameron: Most bad teams don’t have a ton of good assets to sell, which is why they’re bad in the first place.

Comment From Oden
Not arguing your point on Smyly/franklin, but isn’t Price in Detroit a move to finally win that WS a win for Detroit too? Also, if Tigs can sign Price for around what they offered Max, isn’t that a good thing too? Because i think it was safe to say Max was already gone.

Dave Cameron: Yes, that was the point of the deal for the Tigers. And I said in my write-up last Thursday that I liked the deal for Detroit. I simply reject the notion that the Tigers “stole” Price from the Rays or that the Rays made a bad trade. The people advancing that argument are simply performing poor analysis.

Comment From Guest
As I recall you wrote an article on why the Dodgers shouldn’t trade for Lester about a week ago. Agree thoroughly with them not needing a starter, but especially with Beckett not pitching through the fifth inning on a regular basis, what are your thoughts on the Dodger bullpen, winning the division, and doing at all well in the postseason?

Dave Cameron: I would have liked to see them get in on Andrew Miller and maybe go after another reliever too. I doubt they’re done, though. Relievers get moved in August.

Comment From Steve
On Jonah Keri’s podcast, Rosenthal mentioned that he disagreed with FG and others who say mid-season trades don’t have much impact. He argued that the smartest numbers guys in baseball are making them (GMs) so they must matter. What do you think of this appeal to authority?

Dave Cameron: I think it’s misconstruing the argument. A trade can both not matter that much and still be worth doing.

Comment From Guest
Why did you name your dog Liberty?

Dave Cameron: It’s a personal story, but it has to do with restoring my wife’s birthday month after a couple of hard years.

Comment From Mike
your least favorite prospect that everyone else seems to love and why

Dave Cameron: Archie Braldey, Aaron Sanchez, insert name of bad command two pitch guy with big velo here.

Comment From Jake
Is Season To Date BaseRuns better at describing what has happened, or what will happen?

Dave Cameron: What has happened.

Comment From Eric
Can we get an update on your pup?

Dave Cameron: She’s over a year old now, has topped out at about 50 pounds, and is still a massive bundle of energy. But also still adorable.

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Dave Cameron: Here’s a recent-ish photo.

Dave Cameron: And on that note, I’m off to grab some lunch.

Dave Cameron: Neil Weinberg will be here in a few hours to answer questions you have about the site or our data, and Eno will be here tomorrow.

Dave Cameron: See you guys next week.