Dropoff Here, Improvement There

One of the issues of analysis Dave and I have discussed here numerous times is that defensive value must also be taken into account when evaluating a player. Without understanding what a player does for his team in the field, it is impossible to accurately evaluate him. Defense might not be as sexy as offense in the traditional evaluative sense, but it is very important. Which brings us to Yunel Escobar, the 25-yr old shortstop of the Atlanta Braves, who looked so good offensively in his rookie campaign last season, that Edgar Renteria suddenly became expendable.

In 94 games during that 2007 season, Escobar splashed onto the scene with a .326/.385/.451 slash line, and a 1.45 WPA/LI. He didn’t strike out or walk a ton, but posted a .367 BABIP that aided his line. Not to say he couldn’t continue to post higher BABIPs but we really knew nothing about his capabilities. In the field, the +- system had him at 0, meaning he was essentially the average fielding shortstop last year. Granted, he did not have a full season’s worth of chances, but last year’s numbers suggested he was a very solid hitter who would not necessarily hurt the team defensively, but would merely get the job done.

This year, things have seemingly reversed. In 128 games, he appears to be in a sophomore slump of sorts, hitting .286/.363/.395. His walk rate has risen from 7.8% to 10.2%, and he is striking out less as well, but the BABIP has dipped significantly to .312. His percentage of line drives has decreased, with an increase in the already very high groundball rate and the flyball rate. Primarily a groundball hitter, his 2.44 GB/FB last year has become a 2.37 rate this year. All of this has resulted in a -0.04 WPA/LI, which is extremely close to 0.00, making it safe to say he has been about an average hitter this year.

His defense, however, has been anything but average, as the +- system pegs him at +25, making him statistically the best fielding shortstop in baseball this year, nine plays ahead of second-place JJ Hardy. Last year, Escobar was a well-above average hitter and the average fielder. This year, he is the average hitter and a well-above average fielder. The problem is that next to nobody pays attention to the defensive side of evaluation, so he just appears to be in a sophomore slump or a decline. If he can sustain the solid defense, or at least some semblance of it, even if just half of the +25, and contribute at the pace he did offensively last year, the Braves will have one heck of a shortstop moving forward. Next year will be important for him as we’ll understand more about his true talent level both offensively and defensively.