Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/12/17
| 1:07 | : love this, all of it 
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| 12:01 | : Eno, my dear Eno, I’m hungover today.  Make me laugh.
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| 12:01 | : oh you think I’m a clown, funny like a clown, funny ha-ha?
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| 12:02 | : Who’s a better bullpen arm next season: Greg Holland or Joe Blanton?
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| 12:02 | : Floor for Blanton, ceiling for Holland. If I liked my closer, I’d get Blanton.
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| 12:02 | : what to expect about Miguel Sano in 2017 ? 35 HR – 90 RBI ?
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| 12:02 | : Too early to hang the injury tag on him, so yeah.
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| 12:03 | : What do you think of the Angels and Matt Wieters rumors? Any truth to it or is it just Boras trying to drum up interest?
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| 12:03 | : Seems like a position they addressed?
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| 12:03 | : Trea Turner
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| 12:03 | : giggity
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| 12:04 | : Hey Eno, Vlad GIF was great, never gets old. I’ve got a high pick in dynasty draft coming up – debating about moving the pick for James Paxton or Jharel Cotton vs drafting a bat/arm … could use the MLB SP – welcome your thoughts!
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| 12:05 | : As much as I like Paxton, projections provide a better floor for Paxton and he’s like the hardest throwing lefty in the game, so it’s a good time to get him.
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| 12:05 | : Where in the world is Jose Bautista going to land?
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| 12:05 | : Toronto.
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| 12:05 | : Crap, I meant Trea Turners current ADP is astronomically high. Is he worth the gamble as a late 1st round / early 2nd round pick?
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| 12:05 | : Still giggity.
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| 12:05 | : How do you predict the Twins/Dozier saga ending?
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| 12:05 | : A trade, probably to the Dodgers.
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| 12:05 | : So I’m leaning towards the Cubs. What do you think of my decision?
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| 12:05 | : If they’ve sold me on the six man rotation, I’m in. If I’m the sixth starter in a five man… Texas.
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| 12:05 | : Should we be concerned that Kershaw has missed significant time with back problems in 2 of the last 3 years? Could this be a problem moving forward?
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| 12:06 | : Having just entered the world of back problems, it’s a worry. These things don’t go away.
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| 12:06 | : I can keep 3 of Gausman, Harvey, Cotton, Shoemaker, and Berrios- who do you like?
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| 12:06 | : Gaus Shoe and… wow. Maybe Cotton, but nobody blames you if you take Harvey over Cotton or Shoe. Harvey’s all over the place. Bad surgery, but he had the good version and he’s young.
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| 12:07 | : Read the NYP piece on Clint Frazier? Fantastic anecdote about Reggie Jackson taking him to get frozen yogurt.
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| 12:07 | : I’ve interviewed him twice and it’s been great each time, he’s a confident young man, but Laurila has interviewed him a ton and I haven’t been able to fit my piece in.
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| 12:08 | : Saw him at the AFL All Star Game, and then the Futures Game, and said, next stop real All Star Game? And he said “you said it.”
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| 12:08 | : You a Desclafani fan…i? I have him as an affordable NL only keeper but am having a hard time getting excited and thinking about gambling on someone like Shawn Kelley or Scott Schebler instead for an even cheaper price.
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| 12:09 | : Kelley is a decent gamble. I like DeScla a little better than his projections, he’s an interesting low spin sinker low spin curve plus slider guy now, but I don’t think of him as a 1 or 2 in most leagues.
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| 12:09 | : What do you see for playing time for him? Projections are in the 350 range, but he got 500 last year and showed gains in power and zone control. He could be gold in AL only 2 catcher, but its him or Beltre or Edwin Diaz for my last slot.
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| 12:10 | : Yeah but Beltran and Lucroy ahead of him at his best positions. I take Diaz.
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| 12:10 | : Do you like the Mariners moves from yesterday?
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| 12:10 | : So many moves. Gohara for Smyly is fine though.
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| 12:11 | : You think the A’s are pretty much done for the offseason? Or do you think they add one or more of the positionless sluggers that seem to be cheaper these days?
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| 12:12 | : They’d have to release an interesting player, though, and they haven’t done that in the past. They just signed Jairo Garcia / Santiago Casilla and I wonder if they don’t sign a starter to push Triggs to the pen, but I think thy might be done.
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| 12:12 | : Eno – as seen in the attached graph, as a batter collects PA’s against a specific hitter, his batting average against that pitcher rises. Do you think this is because the batter figures the pitcher out over time, or because only the best hitters stick around that time?    | 
| 12:13 | : I’d be interested in the sampling issues, since all research so far has said BvP doesn’t matter. And yeah, at the tail end, a veteran has to be pretty good to get that many PA vs a single pitcher. I will say my intuition says this should be true, because how many tricks can a pitcher pull in the end.
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| 12:14 | : Hi Eno! Thoughts on Polanco doing a Betts 2016 impersonation? Chances on him putting it altogether for a healthy season and .300/.360 and 30 homers/25 steals?
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| 12:14 | : 10-15%? I feel like he has more of a track record than Betts did, so we have more of a handle on his true talent, which would put his power lower.
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| 12:15 | : Looking into Verlander, he looks like more of a 3.75-4 ERA guy this year than 3. Don’t think his strikeout numbers hold. Contact management isn’t great. Am I too concerned?
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| 12:16 | : I think that 3.75 number is floor. it’s certainly possible for an older dude, but he’s got pop-ups from the highest spin 4s in the game (starters) and he got his Ks back. I think mid to low 3s.
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| 12:16 | : Thoughts on the players going to TB from Seattle? And why do the Rays have this infatuation with SS prospects who can’t stick at SS?
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| 12:17 | : Rays must have their own thoughts about defense, or feel if a bat is good enough, they’ll find a spot for him lower on the defensive spectrum. Not sure Mallex will hit, so it’s weird to get a fourth OF for Smyly, even with more parts.
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| 12:17 | : I hate that i teach invert lab on Thursdays.  Prep takes so much time, I will miss most of your chats.  Luckily, today is syllabus day, so I can hang out for a little bit.
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| 12:17 | : Hey everybody, time to watch the Donald Duck shoots pool video again.
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| 12:18 | : So, do we get an Eno Sarris pre-draft Top 100 pitcher ranking this year? Or are we out of luck? If we’re out of luck, then I just want to thank you for the work that you’ve done in years past. It was really, REALLY helpful.
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| 12:18 | : Maybe I’ll just do one on twitter or something, dunno. Probably have to do one for myself.
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| 12:18 | : Eno, Roster Resource has Wheeler in the starting rotation for the Mets.  This seems impractical given that Wheeler pitched all of 1 inning in the last two years.  I would think Gsellman is a much better bet to fill the 5th starter role.  What do you think?
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| 12:19 | : Yeah and there’s Lugo too. Surprised they don’t just attach a pitcher to Bruce to get the CF they need. CFs flying around like hot cakes.
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| 12:19 | : The A’s have a boatload of pitching. What’s their next move? Trade some of it for a LHH CF? Sell high on pricey relievers like Madson/Axford? See what they can get for guys with more team control like Dull/Hendriks?
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| 12:19 | : They always go into the season trying to compete and sell in season. If there’s a move left, it’s their February Bat Surprise.
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| 12:19 | : What if I’m bored of beer?
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| 12:19 | : Try sours?
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| 12:19 | : Columbus, OH is becoming a hotspot for craft spirits.  You may need to expand Beer Graphs into Spirits Graphs.
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| 12:20 | : Tons of craft beer spots are opening distilleries. It’s hawt.
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| 12:20 | : do you think Bundy will emerge and establish himself as the Orioles’ ace by mid-year?
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| 12:20 | : I think he’s got the best stuff in that starting rotation, so it’s all about health.
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| 12:20 | : Eno! What are your thoughts on Jake Lamb? Anecdotally, I pegged him as a top 100 player and top 10 3B. Z-Scores on Steamer puts him in the 150-160 range and not a top 12 3B.
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| 12:21 | : I see no way he doesn’t hit more than 20-21 homers, that’s a weird projection for me. .250/30 should get him into the top 10?
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| 12:21 | : My clock says 12 Eastern, but yours says 1:07. I assume you’re out in the Atlantic somewhere?
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| 12:21 | : Shallow Alto.
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| 12:21 | : Is Mallex going to be flipped again?
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| 12:21 | : Mets now that I say it?
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| 12:21 | : i turned in my masters thesis this morning to i’m not doing anything and i saw your tweet, so…
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| 12:21 | : hi
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| 12:21 | : HERES LOOKING OVER A FOUR LEAF CLOVER THAT I OVERLOOKED BEFOOOOORRRREEEEE
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| 12:22 | : Hey Eno – do you see Buxton fulfilling all the promise this year? Chances on a .280 season with 25+ homers and 50+ steals?
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| 12:22 | : I’m pretty down on him.
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| 12:22 | : So many whiffs.
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| 12:22 | : Mechanics so messed up.
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| 12:22 | : Do you prefer Mac Williamson or Jarrett Parker starting in LF?
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| 12:22 | : I prefer Mac as a player, but he’s a righty so it’s complicated says the relationship status.
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| 12:23 | : Who you like better for a bounce back?   Gomez or McCutchen
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| 12:23 | : Cutch. Gomez injury and health concerns seems really obvious.
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| 12:23 | : I really strongly dislike the Plouffe signing, and am fairly positive towards the Casilla signing by the A’s. Thoughts?
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| 12:24 | : I’m not sure about Plouffe either. Is he really better than Healy at third? Is he really good enough to DH with the bat? Weird.
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| 12:24 | : How will Jeff Sessions’ appointment as Attorney General effect Tim Lincecum’s attempt to return to relevance?
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| 12:24 | : My ALCS Prediction: BOS def. CLE My NLCS Prediction: COL def. LAD Go Rox! | 
| 12:24 | : I always get excited when my question shows up on the screen THE DUDE INTERLUDE    | 
| 12:25 | : I’m in all sweats interlude.
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| 12:25 | : At what point is Coppy gonna trade prospect arms for MLB help? Maybe after 2017 or still too soon?
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| 12:25 | : I think he was prepared to do it this year but prices were pretty high.
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| 12:26 | : If Kershaw was to stop pitching today, god forbid, should he make the Hall of Fame?
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| 12:26 | : His top comp this year is Sandy Koufax.
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| 12:26 | : All 5-7 bucks, can keep up to two in a points league: Gray, Urias, Tillman, Matt Moore.
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| 12:26 | : First two.
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| 12:26 | : What should we expect out of Blake Snell this year? Is the ‘leap’ still a year away?
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| 12:27 | : Could be this year. Slider was a great addition. Just needs to repeat and get batters swinging.
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| 12:27 | : I’ll throw out the first Quintana question…..Glasnow + Bell + ……what?
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| 12:27 | : That’s a good enough start, the third piece doesn’t need to be amazing IMO.
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| 12:27 | : I know he’ll probably still have 3B eligibility, but does the move to first hurt Ryon Healy’s projected value?
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| 12:27 | : only if he DHs.
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| 12:28 | : Fantasy question…for starting pitching just trust steamer to be right 58% of the time. The rest, i.e. using the various narratives to make a guess on a guy, is just an entertaining crapshoot.
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| 12:29 | : Projections are much worse on pitching, they can change their true talent more quickly. I hope I’m better than 58% on the remaining 42%, following those interesting threads in their strategy, mechanics, and mix, but who knows.
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| 12:30 | : Hola Eno from the Carribean! Huge Polanco fan here..but got offered George Springer for Polanco straight up..thoughts?
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| 12:30 | : Batting average league, Polanco has the nose and maybe the upside beyond the projections.
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| 12:30 | : Was thinking about trying some Melvin IPA this weekend?  Your thoughts?
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| 12:30 | : Yes. But Hubert was my favorite from them.
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| 12:30 | : Robert Gsellman or Jameson Taillon and why?
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| 12:30 | : I guess Tailon but neither has a third pitch. I like Taillon’s second pitch better, and velo about same.
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| 12:31 | : Ever put beer in checked baggage? Picked up a westvleteren in brussels I’d like to bring to hawaii with me. Yay or nay?
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| 12:31 | : Yay. Just bag it and put it in the clothes and you’re find.
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| 12:31 | : do you have a link to the new beer stuff?
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| 12:31 | : It’s a soft launch — tools and bells and whistles not up now — until the week after next, so I’ll erase this later, but you can see look and feel at oct.co
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| 12:32 | : I know your feelings on cutters when a pitcher already has a great slider. Per Greinke the pitches tend to bleed together. But it seems to me that Rodon would benefit from learning a cutter or maybe a two-seemer. It seems like he is either a command jump, or a fastball that produces weak contact, away from becoming an elite pitcher.
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| 12:32 | : No, I think he did it late last year — trusted the change and threw it 10+% of the time. He had a command breakthrough when he moved on the mound, so it could just be a sequencing tweak and he’s ready to go.
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| 12:32 | : today is national kiss a ginger day…who you kissing?
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| 12:33 | : Already kissed my son, and I’ll go find his ginger cat (Fireball) later.
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| 12:33 | :    | 
| 12:34 | : Headed to phoeonix/Scottdale next week. What brewery(ies) should I hit?
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| 12:34 | : MUST: Arizona Wilderness. Worth the trek.  Should: McFate. Decent sweet stout. | 
| 12:34 | : Eno!  Hitting up San Fran next month…where should I go if I’m in the Union Square area?
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| 12:35 | : Mikkeller if you have to walk, but it’s expensive. Take a short cab to Cellarmaker/City Beer Store (block apart) and you’ll get the best of SF and the best of the West and a bottle shop to boot.
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| 12:35 | : What do you think is both the best and realistic case for Mark melancon? Year one a normal melancon year ; year 2 a good year ; year 3 a decent year and year 4 eww could be ugly?
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| 12:36 | : At 90mph I feel like good/good/blech/blech is more likely. Command keeping him where he is, but command is equal parts athleticism, mechanics, and confidence. See how two parts could fall apart quickly?
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| 12:36 | : when’s a reasonable age to start worrying about hitter age? namely re longoria. 31 and most HR of his career last year. does he have 5 more years?
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| 12:36 | : At least three more, IMO.
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| 12:36 | : Im no mathemetician, but if Drew Smyly was traded for Mallex Smith and David price, that means Mallex Smith = David Price, right? Thats called the transmuformative law, right?
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| 12:37 | : Wait, do lots of people like Pinegrove?  I want to congratulate and/or make fun of my buddy who is in the group.
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| 12:37 | : My hotel twin bed has 8 pillows. I *HAVE* to build a pillow fort now.
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| 12:37 | : Lude finished strong.
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| 12:37 | : Montgomery: can he cut his walk rate down enough to stick in the rotation?
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| 12:38 | : That’s the whole story, because he has the pitches. But! He started throwing a cutter more and I think that helped him cut the walk rate. I’m saying yes.
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| 12:38 | : 1 Sp that you are buying right meow in a dynasty before he gets all hyped up on Mountain Dew..
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| 12:38 | : Is it too late to say J Cotton again?
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| 12:38 | : Most rankings have Yu even or above Stras  for 2017. Agree?
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| 12:38 | : More likely to put more innings up, similar talent.
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| 12:38 | : Hey Eno, you’ve mentioned that a good way of incorporating Pop Up% into a player’s assessment is adding it to K%. But I was wondering if Pop Up% had a significant relation with GB%? If there’s something to be said about pitchers with high GB% AND high Pop Up% (or the inverse)? Or batters with low GB% AND low Pop Up% (or the inverse)? Thanks Eno!
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| 12:39 | : usually PU% comes with FB%. The trick is getting FB and PU and not HR. Also, if you add to K-BB, you have to convert PU to PU/PA instead of PU/BIP. So that would be IFFB*FB/PA.
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| 12:39 | : Why is Scott Boras able to get way more money for his clients than anyone else? Is he really doing anything that other agents can’t do?
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| 12:39 | : Reams of analytics that help convince FOs.
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| 12:39 | : Isn’t it crazy that the Braves have roughly 13 prospects within the top 120 or so?
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| 12:40 | : It’s crazy that I really only love two or three of them then I guess.
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| 12:41 | : 
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| 12:41 | : needed some music.
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| 12:42 | : Feel like even sleeper hawks are sleeping on Travis Jankowski, because I have to think that SD keeps Margot down past the Super 2 deadline? And then if just one of DIckerson, Margot, or Renfroe disappoints or is injured, Jankowski secures at least a platoon for after that? Think Jankowski should manage a .700 OPS and tons of steals, especially valuable in daily lineup formats
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| 12:43 | : Projected for .650 OPS and I’m having a hard time arguing with any part of the projection. Valuable in fantasy for those steals but a 1 WAR player is always in playing time trouble.
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| 12:43 | : What are your thoughts on Joseph playing time this year for Philly and his stat line.
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| 12:44 | : I think he gets another year of Cron like numbers (in a better park) but long term he’s probably replaceable as they getter.
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| 12:44 | : Okay, keeper question. sorry, if you answer I won’t ask anymore?  In a vacuum, keep Soler, Edwin Diaz, or Guerriel?
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| 12:44 | : Maybe Diaz! .260/25 seems fairly replaceable these days and Diaz is hot fire.
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| 12:45 | : eno, have you tried any of the Jester King beers in Austin Texas?
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| 12:45 | : They’re perfect.
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| 12:45 | : Eno, what do you make of Carlos Santana? Will the power hold? Will he be a middle of the order guy?
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| 12:45 | : Yes and yes.
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| 12:46 | : I’m thinking about finishing my basement and putting in a bar. Do you think it needs to be a wet bar or can I get away with a dry one?
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| 12:46 | : Always go wet.
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| 12:47 | : I’ve recently developed a taste for porters and stouts. What are some of your favourites from this category?
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| 12:48 | : Firestone Walker Velvet Merkin, The Bruery Last Tuesday, High Water Campfire Sout, Deschutes Black Butte (with the letters), Oskar Blues Death by Coconut, AleSmith Speedway Stout (especially variants)
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| 12:48 | : What do you see from Alex Reyes this year?
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| 12:48 | : Everything, including walks.
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| 12:49 | : Saw reports that Bradley Zimmer could win a starting job with a strong Spring Training. Think so or is he not ready yet?
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| 12:49 | : Swing looks pretty long to me, but he can play CF and hit some and is probably better than Naquin, and Brantley may not be able to play the outfield…
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| 12:50 | : Mallex not redundant with Lagares?  Having both seems like overkill, even if they can platoon?
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| 12:50 | : Being able to platoon those guys is more valuable than Bruce.
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| 12:50 | : Is Wilson Contreras a top 12 C next year? Is he better than Molina? If either of those answers are “yes”, is it just because he plays OF and thus gets more PAs?
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| 12:50 | : yes and yes and no, it’s because of power.
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| 12:51 | : Question on the Odubel Herrera extension, though applies to other pre-arb extensions as well: The Phillies are running a low payroll due to being bad, not because they’re in a small market. With Herrera’s payouts, he gets a lot more money in 2019-2020 than in 2017, which is very small. Wouldn’t the Phillies want to frontload the extension so they have more payroll flexibility to dip into free agency when they plan on being competitive in 2019-2020? Isn’t paying like $20M of the $35M total that he got in 2017 a better use of their 2017 payroll than paying Buccholz to eat innings? I see this in other pre-arb extensions a lot as well. Plus, Herrera could invest that money in mutual funds and shit and get some of that sweet ROI, or buy some nice cars if he prefers.
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| 12:51 | : Problem with trying to front-load that deal is that you’re paying for arbitration years early on. Not familiar enough with contract and arbitration, but that might be the problem. What if you’re setting some sort of arb precedent by front loading that deal.
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| 12:52 | : Manaea’s numbers in the final few months of last season were amazing. What do you think his 2017 stat line looks like?
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| 12:52 | : Haven’t seen enough out of that slider to fully believe yet. I think his ceiling for next year is his ful season numbers for last year.
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| 12:52 | : Does musgrove make the Astros rotation out of ST? Who is the odd man out?
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| 12:53 | : He’s sixth but someone in that rotation will get hurt this year.
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| 12:53 | : How good can Kevin Maitan be?  Is he worth drafting with the #2 pick in a first year player dynasty draft?
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| 12:53 | : Yes.
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| 12:53 | : Moncada’s upside is? Reasonable career is?
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| 12:53 | : Sano with defensive value?
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| 12:54 | : Always appreciate your take on pitchers. I can keep as many of these at the price listed for standard 5×5. Who stays, who goes: Sonny Gray- $18, Wacha- $10, Nola- $7, Eduardo Rodriguez- $7, Wainwright- $6, Paxton-$3, Manaea- $2, Tillman- $1
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| 12:54 | : Keep Nola Paxton Manaea
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| 12:54 | : I would have said Ed, but he hurt his knee again.
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| 12:55 | : Have we reached peak IPA consumption? Most bearded folks are ordering Mexican lagers as of late.
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| 12:55 | : Sessions and pilsners seem on the come.
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| 12:55 | : What if I’m bored of sours?
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| 12:56 | : Saisons? Dark lagers? I mean, I love beer because whenever I’m tired of a style, there’s another one to explore. I’ve got a bunch of BA stouts in the fridge. If that’s not enough for you, move on, nobody’s making you drink beer.
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| 12:56 | : V v important question… prior to going out and drinking good beer, when do you brush your teeth? Sometimes I drink a throw away first to get the minty taste out of my mouth. What’s the best strategy?
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| 12:57 | : Because hops can be such a burnout, you could actually try a stout first. It’s backwards by ABV, but mint in a stout is fine.
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| 12:57 | : Does Dipota begin every morning with a look in the mirror and asks “What trade can I make today?”
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| 12:57 | : I saw an online ad for bacon. The fact that someone would have to market their bacon online makes me very suspicious of that bacon.
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| 12:57 | : We’re entering the arbitration avoidance / best shape of his career pronouncement period.. have any mildly legal stimulants you might suggest to help through the boredom?
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| 12:58 | : I suggest ludes. NOT QUAALUDES TO BE PERFECTLY CLEAR.
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| 12:58 | : Eno you forgot to mention OHSO for the guy going to phx/scottsdale. Place has a hell of a happy hour.
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| 12:58 | : Decent beer too.
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| 12:58 | : What do you think about Joe Ross this year?  Is he top 50?
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| 12:58 | : By talent, I’m buying.
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| 12:59 | : I have a gut feeling that Benintendi will be a lot better than a lot of people expect. A gut feeling, and after watching him play, of course.
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| 12:59 | : The projections for league-average power seem really weird to me. I don’t get them at all. Push that power projection and you’re looking at a .290/350/500 type player with good D…
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| 12:59 | : Regarding Boras – 60 Minutes did a pretty cool piece on him like 3 or 4 years ago. Part of his “schtick” is that his agency focuses only on baseball, and thus knows all it’s ins and outs.
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| 1:00 | : Will Albies be a better fantasy player of baseball player and is his Katoh ranking based more on his defensive metrics?
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| 1:02 | : I think he’ll steal enough to be a decent fantasy asset. Good hit tool. Elvis Andrus plus a bit of speed, but at second?
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| 1:02 | : Can you count on Stras to be an ace with his injury history?  Also do you think his results will ever match up with his peripherals?  Last two years his ERA has been half a run higher than his FIP
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| 1:02 | : Ace when in for sure.
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| 1:02 | : Hey Eno, I want to make my own projections, but unsure how to go about it. What weights should I put into 2016 numbers, previous career numbers, comp career paths, etc?
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| 1:03 | : Start with Marcel — 5 x last year, 3 x year before, 2 x two years ago, divided by 10. Then tweak.
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| 1:03 | : Why are the A’s signing such mediocre veteran talent? In the past two offseasons they have at least been very creative with their trade targets…this year…it seems like we are gunning for mediocrity.
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| 1:04 | : They always sign mediocre veterans — think back to Piazza, Thomas — and their trades have brought them a bunch of interesting young starters recently.
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| 1:04 | : Why do we measure baseball players with sabermeters? This is America. We use saberyards.
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| 1:04 | : Re: Braves prospects: 2 or 3 of them? Let me guess, Swanson and Albies?
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| 1:05 | : Okay wasn’t thinking Swanson, and was just thinking Albies, Maitan, and Soroka in my head but sure Allard is probably interesting.
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| 1:05 | : <iframe width=”560″ height=”315″ src=” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen></iframe>
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| 1:05 | : I need a steals guy in the later rounds.  Who is a steals guy?
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| 1:06 | : Late steals: Jankowski, Peraza, maybe Mondesi, Broxton, Quinn, Margot, Tim Anderson. Overall I like Margot and Peraza best.
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| 1:06 | : Better fantasy sleeper next year (OBP/TB/R/RBI/SB) – Kepler or Broxton?
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| 1:06 | : Kepler
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| 1:06 | : Posey – how many more years before the decline?  Think he has the typical catcher aging decline curve?
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| 1:07 | : Catcher aging curve not as different as you might think.    | 
| 1:08 | : I know you’re an Albies guy, and I need you to explain it to me! There’s zero power, walk rate is just alright at best. So his offensive production looks like it’s going to be heavily dependent on his average, no? And yeah the defense should be good, but at second base, is it that big of a deal? I’m not seeing the hype of him as a top prospect and would love you to show me what I’m missing.
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| 1:08 | : I like the hit tool, think some power could come, and just used Elvis Andrus to explain why I really like him.
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| 1:08 | : i liked sporty spice.  she just seemed like one of us.
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| 1:08 | : Victory Beer! Best craft lagers, and GOLDEN MONKEY
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| 1:08 | : Don’t count your chickens before they cross the road!
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| 1:08 | : When you get three like that in a row, you post em.
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| 1:09 | : Do you see anyone making a breakout this season the way Betts did from 2015-2016, maybe not that big of one but that type of significance? I am thinking of Jose Ramirez until I realize that he will probably bat 6th. Any other names come to mind?
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| 1:10 | : I think you’d want a guy with great plate discipline that hasn’t added the power yet, that’s my definition of Betts breakout. Torreyes? Bell? Franco? Bogaerts? Not all perfect but interesting names.
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| 1:11 | : if i were a spice girl, i would have been hairy spice.
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| 1:11 | : burpy spice.
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| 1:11 | : Generally speaking, in an auction keeper draft where you have to chose one of two players would you rather hold on to a more expensive ‘sure thing” or a cheaper player who has a much higher risk?
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| 1:11 | : I generally go for the former when I’m competitive and the latter when I’m rebuilding.
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| 1:11 | : Breakfast stout, On Fleek (bad name, great new beer), buffalo sweat, folklore (if they still make it), dragon’s milk, all have 4.5 or more for me….
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| 1:12 | : Flippe dover to the new beer site…..love the look, Eno, can’t wait to see it all go live!  Good luck!
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| 1:12 | : Thanks! Also: we’re having a launch party in New York at Three’s Brewing at 7-10 with a panel on beer and meat, and then a DJ set from the guy from The National. Free, 150 may enter.
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| 1:13 | : Schwarber as a number two hitter?  I know he is a big onbase guy, but isn’t that a misuse of his power.
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| 1:13 | : Just once a game, and only maybe then.
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| 1:15 | : Comping Moncada to a guy with just a year more experience is cheating
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| 1:15 | : Justin Upton on the infield without the sub 20K years?
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| 1:15 | : Also: SIGH.
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| 1:16 | : Sporer drafted Yelich in his mock last night, that’s just because they’re the same dude right?
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| 1:16 | : totes.
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| 1:17 | : Detroit’s been incredibly quiet this offseason. How do you see them addressing center field?
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| 1:17 | : Austin Jackson?
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| 1:17 | : Gonna miss the meetup for October. Actually gonna be there 2 days later just to get The Meat Hook Sausages. Great Stuff! Have lots!
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| 1:17 | : I will. Sausage Spice.
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| 1:17 | : Quaaludes…the extra A is for Alllllriiiiiiiight
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| 1:17 | : allllright allllright alllllriiiight
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| 1:17 | : What are your thoughts on Archie Bradley? Can’t decide if he’s going to ever improve or flame out.
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| 1:18 | : Future closer.
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| 1:18 | : What’s your current White Whale Beer?
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| 1:20 | : Huh. I think I’ve had all the ones I targeted.. Fuzzy Baby Ducks from NEBCO? honestly don’t have a target right now
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| 1:20 | : tsik tsik tsik, chrrrrrrrr — siew siew siew siew
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| 1:20 | : if i lived in a gingerbread house, homeless people would be a termite-like threat.
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| 1:20 | : Ryan Beano brushing his teeth every time he leaves the house making me feel TERRIBLE about my own dental hygiene.
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| 1:20 | : Where do you pick Tulo this year?
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| 1:21 | : Projections say he’s a top 15 SS but I like him more than that. Maybe tenth-best SS?
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| 1:22 | : last song! 
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| 1:23 | : Better bet long term – Austin Hedges’ offense catching up to his defense, or Jorge Alfaro’s defense catching up to his offense?
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| 1:24 | : Alfaro? Heges was in El Paso, have to remember that.
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| 1:24 | : But RE: Albies, is Elvis Andrus comparison really a compliment?
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| 1:25 | : It is because Andrus has produced 21 wins in his career, and four or five decent fantasy seasons. He’s a prospect, what do you want? I think there’s a bit more power, but Andrus is the guy that comes to mind as a present comp.
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| 1:25 | : In a sample of 10 same-style beers, how many do you think you could typically match in a blind taste test if they were all beers you know?
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| 1:26 | : 4-6 depending on the beers? I say that now and probably 3 is the answer.
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| 1:26 | : Better Late Round Lottery ticket (non keeper). Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Austin Meadows or Clint Frazier
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| 1:26 | : Meadows.
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| 1:26 | : Which major league uniform should I wear unbuttoned to be the spiciest spice?
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| 1:26 | : Mets with something super colorful underneath, a la Yo.
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| 1:27 | : How did Bryant overcome his strikeouts in the minors? He also walked a lot, so was it mechanical? Was it just experience?
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| 1:27 | : Made a mechanical tweak last year.
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| 1:27 | : I just ate a Cubano. My burps taste like Cubano. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
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| 1:27 | : When is the launch party? There was no date. Love Threes.
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| 1:27 | : Silly. Jan 26. Thursday.
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| 1:28 | : LIGHTNING ROUND? Can’t we still?
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| 1:28 | : HEY
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| 1:28 | : SHOULD
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| 1:28 | : WE
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| 1:28 | : DO
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| 1:28 | : THIS
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| 1:28 | : SOMEBODY
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| 1:28 | : PICK
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| 1:28 | : ME
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| 1:28 | : UP
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| 1:29 | : …
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| 1:29 | : hack spice
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| 1:29 | : I think I’d be Frumundah Spice.
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| 1:29 | : Freddie Freeman in round 2. Buy or sell?
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| 1:29 | : Sell
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| 1:29 | : Bacon Spice
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| 1:29 | : Keeper league, 14 tm 5×5, Better keeper at $4 – Margot or Renfroe?
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| 1:29 | : Renfroe
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| 1:29 | : Love that Burlington piece. Queen City is doing some really cool non-IPA stuff
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| 1:29 | : Conforto play enough 1B/OF to get 500 PAs?
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| 1:29 | : Not now but after trade
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| 1:30 | : Snarky Spice
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| 1:30 | : people this is a lightning round
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| 1:30 | : Span, Rajai or drink bleach?
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| 1:30 | : … Rajai
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| 1:30 | : if you knew you couldn’t outrun the bear, would you fight it?  i wouldn’t.  i’d still run.
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| 1:30 | : SERPENTINE
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| 1:30 | : PSA: Troegs Nugget Nectar will be in NY by Jan 30th. My all-time favorite beer!
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| 1:30 | : so good
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| 1:30 | : Also: can drink Modern Times Blazing World year round, based on that, and also great.
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| 1:30 | : Park or Fat Panda at CI?
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| 1:31 | : Panda.
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| 1:31 | : Freddie Freeman in round 3 buy or sell?
 | 
| 1:31 | : hold
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| 1:31 | : Who are some quality post-hype prospects to consider?
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| 1:32 | : maybe the bear pulls a hammy.
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| 1:32 | : Wong? Marte? Jorge Polanco?
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| 1:32 | : Curb or Arrested Development?
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| 1:32 | : Arrested.
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| 1:32 | : Have you ever thought about increasing your productivity by wearing diapers? So much productive time is wasted by having to get up to walk to the bathroom.
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| 1:32 | : Keeper league: Benintendi or Bellinger?
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| 1:32 | : Ben.
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| 1:32 | : Listen to Kruder & Dorfmeister DJ-Kicks when you can. It’s aged really well.
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| 1:32 | : maybe i smell like hammy.
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| 1:32 | : How long do I wait before calling a girl after a successful first date?
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| 1:32 | : not too long screw convention.
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| 1:32 | : Rack Spice
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| 1:32 | : Much like a song needs melody, a beer needs …?
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| 1:32 | : a middle
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| 1:33 | : just thinking hammy makes me feel better about tasting like hammy to the bear
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| 1:33 | : AJ Ramos will get how many saves this year? He feels on shaky ground in Miami…
 | 
| 1:33 | : 25
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| 1:33 | : Last starter choice Nova or Strahm?
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| 1:33 | : Nova
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| 1:33 | : Clevinger make the Indians rotation?
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| 1:33 | : no
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| 1:33 | : Keep Altuve at round 23 or Lucas Duda at round 2? I’m leaning Duda @ a round 2 cost. I have a good feeling.
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| 1:33 | : I’d be Old Spice.
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| 1:33 | : THUNDER
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| 1:33 | : a little late
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| 1:33 | : soler: pitch or ditch
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| 1:33 | : pitch, you’ve waited all this time
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| 1:33 | : What spice is most hated by the elderly? Hospice.
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| 1:34 | : youch.
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| 1:34 | : Hendricks — over/under 3.00 ERA
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| 1:34 | : over
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| 1:34 | : Dominic Smith the real deal?
 | 
| 1:34 | : eh
 | 
| 1:34 | : Of these 3 back-end guys, who has the most 2017+ upside: Liriano, Fiers, Karns?
 | 
| 1:34 | : Karns
 | 
| 1:34 | : Also, have you tried Alchemist Crusher? I think it’s better than HT and FB.
 | 
| 1:34 | : No!
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| 1:34 | : Where’s Yuniesky Betencourt these days?
 | 
| 1:34 | : Probably playing baseball in Japan or down south.
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| 1:34 | : Spicy spicy spork spice
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| 1:35 | : Do you think Pompey will end the offseason as a starter on the depth chart?
 | 
| 1:35 | : On another team maybe.
 | 
| 1:35 | : Zombie Dust in Beer HOF?
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| 1:35 | : Yes.
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| 1:35 | : Cold Spice up in here
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| 1:36 | : If dominic smith cutd some weight and gets in great shape, less “eh”?
 | 
| 1:36 | : more about power
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| 1:36 | : Fart Spice
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| 1:36 | : You don’t have to outrun the bear, just the person with you.
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| 1:37 | : Is their a starting gig in Devenski’s near future?
 | 
| 1:37 | : has the tools, 7th on depth chart now.
 | 
| 1:37 | : I’m almost 30 years old, and the word “fart” still makes me laugh. Usually outloud.
 | 
| 1:37 | : Jorge Lopez coming back from the dead?
 | 
| 1:37 | : Still possible. Colorado Springs sucks.
 | 
| 1:37 | : Better career: Fulmer or Manaea?
 | 
| 1:37 | : Fulmer.
 | 
| 1:37 | : Potential future LA-favorite beer…Firestone Walker Beuhler?
 | 
| 1:37 | : Brian Ferry or Phil Manzanera?
 | 
| 1:38 | : Ferry
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| 1:38 | : Shart Spice
 | 
| 1:38 | : If you had to catch Chapman for one game, how many passed balls would you get docked for?
 | 
| 1:38 | : I’d be dead.
 | 
| 1:38 | : I heard Firestone Walker is going to discontinue Wookie Jack?  How could this be?
 | 
| 1:38 | : They’ll trot it out every once in a while. Guess it wasn’t selling.
 | 
| 1:38 | : Burger Spice
 | 
| 1:39 | : Taking Tiger Mountain or Another Green World?
 | 
| 1:39 | : TTM for me but people don’t agree
 | 
| 1:39 | : 25-30 homers in AAA Vegas means more like 15-20 elsewhere?
 | 
| 1:39 | : something like but I think there’s a THT deep dive coming on that.
 | 
| 1:39 | : More 2017 saves: Familia or Reed?
 | 
| 1:39 | : Famila
 | 
| 1:39 | : Give spice a chance.
 | 
| 1:40 | : Lunch break.  Better WAR starting tomorrow for the next three years:  Toles or Mallex Smith?
 | 
| 1:40 | : Toles.
 | 
| 1:40 | : Keeper, M Cabrera or Stanton
 | 
| 1:40 | : yeesh, Cabrera if you’re competitive.
 | 
| 1:40 | : Stepped away for a minute and came back to a whole different chat
 | 
| 1:40 | : Lightning baby
 | 
| 1:40 | : Best sandwich topping to go with turkey?
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| 1:40 | : bacon
 | 
| 1:40 | : “Always Go Wet” – Eno Sarris, 2017
 | 
| 1:41 | : Music for Airports or Music For Films?
 | 
| 1:41 | : Neither. Downtempo is the slowest I go.
 | 
| 1:41 | : I LOLed at benintendi having “Good D”
 | 
| 1:41 | : Well not bad I don’t think. You’re welcome to your opinion until we know more.
 | 
| 1:41 | : Bacon and chili are their own food groups. They’re like the longman in the bullpen. They can either be a standalone food, or a condiment.
 | 
| 1:41 | : What are your thoughts on the Jolly Pumpkin Brewery in Detroit?
 | 
| 1:42 | : Love them.
 | 
| 1:42 | : If the price for McCutch starts with Vlad Jr., should the Jays keep talking?
 | 
| 1:42 | : Doubt it.
 | 
| 1:42 | : HEY OHHHHHH
 | 
| 1:42 | : is the axe bat going to make any impact at all?
 | 
| 1:42 | : story coming.
 | 
| 1:43 | : I think the comment on the comment on Benintendi’s “good d” was inuendo-based…
 | 
| 1:43 | : … oh. I think I’ve said that phrase so often I don’t even notice that sort of thing.
 | 
| 1:43 | : Better place to find out about a young player’s D, his first 20ish games in MLB or scouting reports?
 | 
| 1:43 | : scouting reports.
 | 
| 1:43 | : Spice spice baby.
 | 
| 1:44 | : Lopez should learn how to throw strikes. And he always looked like the least interested player on the field.
 | 
| 1:45 | : Too bad he has a great fastball and some interesting secondary stuff.
 | 
| 1:45 | : Are defensive metrics…how far away from being super reliable?
 | 
| 1:45 | : 1-2 years at most.
 | 
| 1:45 | : well.. super reliable? Still will depend on far too few chances.
 | 
| 1:45 | : Okay people. I have to write!
 | 
| 1:45 | : Thanks for hanging out!
 | 
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
 
								
The trade talk at 12:53. Who is CMart?
Im having a brain fart….