Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 4/25/13
8:46 |
: Here in 15!
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9:01 |
: okay!
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9:01 |
: looking for lyrics real fast!
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9:02 |
Got to find some therapy, this treatment takes too long Deep in the heart of where sympathy held sway Got to find my destiny before it gets too late in honor of not having slept much in the last day |
9:03 |
Do you think Wheeler is going to be better than Harvey? |
9:04 |
: I don’t think so but I don’t know. Also has control issues, but for some reason that hasn’t plagued Harvey in the bigs. If your stuff is good enough, you can get batters to reach and turn balls into strikes. Wheeler has legit stuff. Hard to imagine being better than Harvey right now.
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9:04 |
Nolan Arendao’s call up = __-__-13 |
9:04 |
: 6/15
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9:04 |
Hey Eno! Would you be a taker if offered Yu Darvish and Allen Craig in exchange for Albert Pujols and Brandon Morrow? |
9:05 |
: Yes. Yes I would. I don’t love Craig for more than 25 dongs, but Pujols isn’t quite the old Pujols any more and I couldn’t have had more of a crush on Yu Darvish and that was before today’s GIF.
|
9:05 |
When Danny Duffy comes back this year, do you think he’ll be used out of the bp for the rest of his career? |
9:05 |
: No I think they’ll find a place for him. Question is about his control, which was already bad before TJ.
|
9:05 |
Any idea when we’ll see Nolan Arenado and what do you project from him? |
9:05 |
: Great batting average. Meh power. Will help at 3B.
|
9:05 |
Yu Darvish: Best, Bester or Bestest? |
9:05 |
: All of that.
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9:06 |
Mason Williams DUI. Great job buddy. How about some more “blessed day” morning tweets. #CLOWN |
9:06 |
: that IS all he tweets, isn’t it
|
9:06 |
Is Morrow droppable in a 10-team H2H league? Cashner a decent replacement? |
9:07 |
: I wouldn’t give up yet. I don’t know where all the swinging strikes have gone, but the velocity is still there. Ug all the RoS projections are terrible though… In a ten teamer? Not yet, but I would try to find room for Cash in the meantime. Just in case it all works out for a half season for him. (long term, worried about his health obv)
|
9:07 |
I should just drop BJ Upton, right? |
9:08 |
: He could still hit .240 with power and speed going forward.
|
9:08 |
I was offered a trade last week, Stanton for Austin Jackson and I turned it down. Am I going to regret that for the rest of the season now that Ajax remember how to K? |
9:08 |
: Yes.
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9:08 |
samardzjia and a-jax for trout, who do you take? |
9:08 |
: trout. Best player in deal. And I love the shark.
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9:08 |
Thoughts on Segura ROS? .300/.340/.410, with another 25 steals? |
9:08 |
: I’d be more comfortable around .280 considering I think his power is still an open question.
|
9:09 |
Buy low on Rickie Weeks and hope for another second half rebound? |
9:09 |
: Career high swinging strike rate, which is now somewhat predictive. Might be another bad batting average year for him, but that’s not why you own him anyway.
|
9:09 |
Allen Craig has been terrible. Discuss! |
9:10 |
: He didn’t quite have the power we thought he would in the first place. He hits a lot of grounders. But that batted ball mix should give him a .280-.300 batting average going forward, and still allows him to hit 20+ homers.
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9:10 |
Would you consider picking up Lorenzo Cain over Brett Gardner in a 5×5 h2h? All things equal |
9:10 |
: No. Cain Ks too much and doesn’t have the stolen base ability of a healthy Gardner.
|
9:10 |
Choose two of three to start next week: Jose Fernandez (2 starts), Julio Teheran (2 starts) or Tony Cingrani (1 start). I’d throw Andrew Cashner in there but I think he’ll be fine. |
9:11 |
: Jose Jose Jose and Jose. And Jose? and then probably Cingriani. Don’t trust Teheran yet.
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9:11 |
BEER BEER BEER BEER BEER BEER BEER — FOR BREAKFAST |
9:11 |
Is that you? |
9:11 |
Ennnnnnnnno!!!!!!!!!!!! |
9:12 |
: exuberant interlude. By the way newcomers, these aren’t what I call inside jokes, because I don’t get most of them myself. What these are are interludes that allow us to get our willies out and break up the chat into different sections!
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9:12 |
Eno! Which of these early struggling aces do you like most ROS? Price, Cain, Hamels, Dickey, Sale, Gio? Gonna try to sell high on Shelby Miller (redraft). |
9:12 |
: Sale is struggling? Sale and Price.
|
9:12 |
Good hint of a buy low window on Will Middlebrooks in a dynasty, or is he just a bit of a light hitter? |
9:12 |
: Just worried about his strikeout rate in batting average leagues, really.
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9:13 |
what is your vote for “second coolest baseball gif of all time”, given the darvish one dave posted clearly wins |
9:13 |
: The Dickey GIFs from last year. One of em.
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9:13 |
Trade Beltre for Hamels + Ortiz in a 5×5 H2H obp league? I can put Frazier at 3b |
9:13 |
: Beltre is a little overvalued in OBP leagues, yes. is okay.
|
9:13 |
Why is Berkman getting no time @1b? Moreland is junk |
9:13 |
: Berkman is an old old man. Keeping his calf in one piece I gues.
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9:13 |
Finally tracked down some Lagunitas Sucks. Tasty tasty. Have you ever had Iron Horse Brewery Double Rainbow? I’m pretty sure it’s my new favorite. |
9:14 |
: Iron Horse… New Jersey I believe? Have had some, dunno about that one. Sucks is so great.
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9:14 |
Andrelton Simmons or Espinosa or Scutaro in a H2H yahoo league with R,HR,RBI,SB,FPCT,AVG,OPS. |
9:14 |
: Definitely not Scutaro. I still like Simmons, call me crazy. OPS does make Espy a little more interesting, but batting average is in there.
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9:14 |
Sally P or Ruiz RoS? |
9:15 |
: Salty, but if you have both and can trade, it’s really just about which one brings you most back, probably Sal.
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9:15 |
Jose Fernandez- after getting cuffed around, still high on him? trade away or hold? |
9:15 |
: I still love him. I think he’ll use the changeup more as we go forward, get a handle on the delivery and put it all together. Worst case, he’s really startable at home.
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9:16 |
is this the real melky cabrera? seems to have reverted to pre-2011 melky. |
9:17 |
: Oh man you’re right, it really does look that way. Looks like his PED-fueled ISO fed into his BABIP, doesn’t it. One thing is that power takes the longest to stabilize, so it could still be coming, but we can know more than the projections here and maybe call it now.
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9:17 |
What do I do about Jesus Montero? He’s my second catcher in a one catcher league? Mesoraco, Martin, Ellis, Hundley, Cervelli available on the FA list to get ABs when I need them, or should I pick up Zunino off the FA list and wait on him? |
9:18 |
: I don’t know why you would own two catchers in a one-catcher league unless it was a deep-roster dynasty, in which case I’d pick up Zunino. Even a regular-bench daily H2H, looking for extra PAs, it’s a waste of your time.
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9:18 |
will jordany valdespin ever get full time at bats? |
9:18 |
: At least he gets most ABs v RHP, so he’s already 2/3 of way there. I like him in deeper leagues for sure. Toolsy, working on patience.
|
9:18 |
tough roster decision: hanley and yoenis coming back but replacements rutledge and marte have been solid. worth keeping the latter two around as potential late-round keepers if it means dropping hammel or smyly instead? |
9:18 |
: yes. for sure. might be worth shopping Marte though.
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9:19 |
Complete this sentence: matt carpenter finishes the season a top ___ 2b, ahead of ___ and ___ |
9:19 |
: Top 12, ahead of Seager and Hill.
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9:20 |
Who do you have ranked higher for the rest of the year, Darvish or Wainwright? |
9:20 |
: Y for Ks.
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9:20 |
can andrew cashner’s body hold up to starting pitching? |
9:20 |
: Serious question. Which is why he’s a better pickup in redrafts.
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9:21 |
Alex Cobb was DEALING last night. Time to sell high? |
9:22 |
: Maybe. He still has a mediocre fastball in terms of velocity. And not much in the way of swinging strikes. It’s all about command and the changeup for him.. which is good enough to be good, maybe even for a whole season, but I doubt he’s a fantasy 1/2 long term.
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9:22 |
Dave said in his chat yesterday that there was a 80% chance Biogenesis suspensions will be handed out this season. What’s your guess? Are the chances ths same for Braun, Melky, Cano? Any other of fantasy importance? |
9:23 |
: I’d put the number much much lower. Here’s my reasoning: it’s mostly just names on a piece of paper. There’s very little chain of custody. The players have bought away some of those records. The MLBPA is very strong. I’d say 30%.
|
9:23 |
…is killing me. 12 team mixed redraft, was offered Cano, Sandoval, Morrow and Frieri for Votto, Pedroia, Ogando and Scherzer. Leaves me with nothing at 1B so I don’t take it right |
9:24 |
: I’m so sorry about that one. The IFFB have got to slow down at some point. You give up a lot of pitching in Scherzer. Pick up Arenado or the guy in Washington or find an interim 3B. I think Moose will get it going.
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9:24 |
After his comments do you think Roeneke does put Axford back in as closer soon? |
9:24 |
: Ax has been going well recently, and not walking guys, but it still might take a mistake from Hendo.
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9:24 |
I look forward to this chat every week so that I can tell you what beers I drank. Might I suggest the Thelonius Monk from North Coast Brewing. Rich and delicious. |
9:24 |
OK GO! |
9:25 |
somebody should poke ron roenicke in the eye. he deserves it. |
9:25 |
: strange.
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9:25 |
CJ Wilson or Jarrod Parker ROS? |
9:25 |
: Ug. Parker is making me look bad but I still love his changeup.
|
9:25 |
Are Detroit really going with Valverde? Who do you think ends up with the most saves? |
9:26 |
: I can’t imagine it really. He didn’t look better than last year, where he was the worst of his career. Everything was going in the wrong direction. With Rondon quietly up at the same time, I’ll go Rondon now, just to be different I guess. Really, we found that velocity and K% are the best predictors of closer changes (and even they aren’t rock solid). Rondon will have those two things.
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9:26 |
How would you rank Peralta, Floyd and Lilly? |
9:27 |
: LIke that. Talked to Jack about Peralta, and though his K% upside is limited, he’s got some good things going for him.
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9:27 |
Any insight as to why Aoki is killing worms this year? This .250 BABIP is brutal. |
9:27 |
: Got no line drives right now, but I think he’ll get it going. Maybe he’ll only hit 8 homers this year though.
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9:27 |
Hey eno, remember the heyward for cliff deal I asked you about last week? Well, I dealt cliff lee and ryu for heyward and morrow…2 days later heyward gets an appendectomy. Concerned about this effecting him long-term as it did adam Dunn? |
9:28 |
: Dunn was like seven years older and I think that matters. I think he’ll be okay. I knew a swimmer at Stanford who had one of those and was competing a month later.
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9:29 |
thoughts on Jay Bruce’s worsening plate discipline/power? |
9:29 |
: I think we’re seeing the future. I bet he rights ship this year but at some point this will be him. If you start with a 23% K rate, at some point before you leave the game, you’ll K 28-30% imo.
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9:29 |
Can’t chat… staring at Yu Darvish .gif. |
9:29 |
: mesmerizing
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9:30 |
VMart just got waived in my H2H 14 team league. Is he worth my #2 waiver position? I have Gattis and Montero, stashed Ramos and Ruiz |
9:30 |
: Normally I’d say yes. But. You have way too many catchers.
|
9:30 |
Is starting a website more or less damaging to your sleep schedule than having a baby? |
9:30 |
: My sleep debt is too big to fail.
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9:30 |
Wade Miley: is he really this good? |
9:30 |
: I don’t think so. Has some Cobb-esque things going for him.
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9:30 |
Time to drop Erasmo Ramirez? |
9:30 |
: Not in deep leagues.
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9:31 |
Does Cingrani hold his spot if he keeps this up? Leake hasn’t been bad. |
9:31 |
: I think he goes back down. It’s not like a guy who throws 85% fastballs can’t refine some stuff in the minors.
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9:31 |
ottoneu points: Billingsley $6, Motte $8, Madson $3. Are you holding? For how long? |
9:32 |
: No, yes, yes, and Motte only until they announce TJ (although at that price, might be worth keeping in dynasty/auction type leagues). Madson should let you know in the next two or three weeks what’s up.
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9:32 |
I have Mitch Moreland while I wair for Dunn to figure it out…should I drop either from Leonys Martin? |
9:32 |
: Martin is interesting but still a platoon player. Wait.
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9:32 |
ENO! Oswaldo Arcia thoughts? I was surprised at how good his MLE’s looked. Think he’ll stick over Hicks? |
9:33 |
: Arcia has some nice things going for him. I’d rather they just take PT away from Doumit, play Arcia, Hicks, Parmelee and give Morneau some days off.
|
9:33 |
: Or just trade Willingham already.
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9:33 |
will michael pineda pitch this year? be effective? |
9:33 |
: Yes. No. Tough to come back from shoulder and without the changeup, he needed the big velocity to make it all work.
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9:33 |
Good time to try and buy low for Heyward? |
9:34 |
: I still think so, but make it really low. On the podcast I said something like Ethier and Cobb, or maybe Marte and Cingrani or something.
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9:35 |
Yu Darvish a second rounder if we redrafted a seasonal league today? |
9:35 |
: Probably, with all the Ks and top tier duds at SP.
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9:35 |
Mid-2015 a realistic expectation to see Brandon Nimmo in the majors? |
9:35 |
: yes!
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9:35 |
: get your finding Nimmo puns ready
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9:36 |
How much longer do you think St.Louis puts up with J.Jay and calls up O.Taveras? |
9:37 |
: Jay is a weak spot on that roster, especially since his secondary skills (patience and D) aren’t likely to be that much better than Taveras’. Even with Taveras possibly/probably moving off CF in the future. So it’s really about Jay’s defense. And he can stick as D replacement if they push Adams down or the injury keeps him out a while.
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9:37 |
Berkman or Pujols RoS? |
9:37 |
: still Pujols but that’s funny
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9:37 |
I know Hicks is off to a very cold start this season. Do you think he will pick up his bat and start showing his tools this year, or does he need more seasoning? On a scale of 1-10, where is his ceiling now? |
9:37 |
: I still like his ceiling, particularly in OBP leagues, but it’s worth wondering if he’ll ever have a good batting average.
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9:38 |
I like that your name doesn’t appear on your responses #whoisit |
9:38 |
: dangit. i thought I changed that for good
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9:38 |
Rank these stashes: Luebke, Paulino, Duffy, Lewis. |
9:38 |
: Luebke, Lewis, Duffy, Paulino
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9:38 |
As a Bay transplant are you a 21st Amendment fan? Their black IPA is an all time favorite of mine. |
9:39 |
: Yeah but I like others better. Other beers (their Gigantes IPA is my favorite) and other breweries (Lag, Drake’s)
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9:39 |
Thoughts on McCuthen’s slow start in AVG/Power? Will it come around? |
9:39 |
: I believe in his power. The average could be anywhere from .275 to .300
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9:39 |
Send Lester/L Cain to get Harvey – buying high but good idea? |
9:39 |
: in a dynasty, yes. Even in a redraft.
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9:40 |
Do you anticipate Sean Doolittle getting an opportunity to close games at some point in 2013? |
9:40 |
: He’s a lefty with one pitch right now, so no not yet. Cook would be ahead for me.
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9:40 |
How MUCH better a hitter is Rizzo than Ike Davis? The more I look at their numbers and scouting reports (big looping swings) the more I feel like they are very similar. Rizzo has better contact rates so far, but also higher O-Swing% (and Swing% overall) |
9:40 |
: Rizzo changed his swing more than Ike when he was faced with the need to adjust.
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9:40 |
Eno, what’s a fair value on Middlebrooks right now? I offered Rutledge and was turned down |
9:40 |
: Then you move on.
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9:40 |
Could the answer to the Cardinals bullpen woes be Carlos Martinez? |
9:41 |
: No but it could be Trevor Rosethal.
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9:41 |
is it reasonable to play without a 3B in 5×5 standard league when your options are kepp, rendon, etc? |
9:41 |
: No.
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9:41 |
Mujica, Bailey my RPs. Super deep at OF. Trade Choo for Chapman? |
9:41 |
: Chapman offers value beyond normal closers. I actually like this.
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9:41 |
Gyorko or Ackley? Need some help while Hill is out. |
9:41 |
: Gyorko.
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9:41 |
Nate McLouth: any reason that he can’t continue to draw walks, score runs, and steal bases at the top of Baltimore’s lineup? |
9:42 |
: Only if his BA gets as bad as it’s gotten and the manager can’t stand the site of it.
|
9:42 |
08-09 Ellsbury is back. Future contract: Reyes or Bourn? |
9:43 |
: Good question. He’s shown more power than Bourn at peak, but otherwise seems very similar.
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9:43 |
: aka good question I won’t answer it
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9:43 |
Garrett Richards: one of the best average FBv’s around and has several different pitches….can he break out this year? |
9:43 |
: Actually I think he has two pitches. Doesn’t use his third much. But he does get grounders and does have the potential.
|
9:43 |
Better fill in for Greinke,Jorge De La Rosa or Andrew Cashner? |
9:43 |
: CAsh
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9:43 |
I had Ballast Point’s Calico Amber on tap last night….pretty yummy |
9:44 |
STROKE MY EGO |
9:44 |
Duda dooo…duda doo dooo duda doo…duda doooo DOOO DOOOO DOOO! SWEEEEEET DUDA DOOOO (DUUDDDA AAAA) |
9:44 |
: well done.
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9:44 |
had some left hand nitro milk stout. love. never was a fan of stouts before, any suggestions for some that are similarly awesome? |
9:45 |
: Yes. Speedway Stout. Dragon’s Milk. Tanilla. Anything called milk stout.
|
9:45 |
I love that you said “get our willies out” in a baseball chat. Fantastic. |
9:45 |
: I must have a one year old.
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9:45 |
Eno Does Moose Taco right the ship or is a demotion imminent? |
9:45 |
: they’ll keep him up.
|
9:45 |
Time to cut bait on Revere? |
9:45 |
: No
|
9:45 |
(MY) David Price and M. Bourn for (HIS) Matt Harvey and A. Laroche…what side ENO!? |
9:46 |
: Price Bourn
|
9:46 |
In a QS + K/9 league (no W) – Vogelsong over Corbin and T hudson? |
9:46 |
: Corbin is interesting to me. I might take him. Hudson’s K/9 too low.
|
9:46 |
Do you ever make it out to the Coliseum for games? People can say what they want about the amenities, it’s still got great views to watch a baseball game |
9:47 |
o.Co? Good god is the food bad. Even the press box food. I’m going to pack dinner next time I go. And the concourses are so… cementy. But you’re right, once you get into your seat things get better. Just don’t expect to learn much from the video screen, or hear anything out of the PA.
: |
9:47 |
Like, if I traded Haren for Middlebrooks? |
9:47 |
: That’s okay.
|
9:47 |
Think Dom Brown will start hitting more than just singles? |
9:47 |
: I do. I don’t expect much more than 18-20 HR, but I do.
|
9:47 |
Optimism about Roy Halladay going forward? |
9:47 |
: Not much.
|
9:48 |
The plurality of my favorite beers originate from _______ (country). |
9:48 |
: America.
|
9:48 |
wait did that guys league use fielding percentage? what is this madness |
9:48 |
: Missed that. Don’t like that.
|
9:48 |
Rank from best to worst way to judge a single game performance by a starting pitcher: ERA and innings; FIP and innings; eye test |
9:48 |
: Single game? best to worst: eye, FIP, ERA.
|
9:48 |
How many K’s would Darvish put up in a complete game against a team of Ryan Howards? |
9:49 |
: 27. Well, if he was a lefty I guess.
|
9:49 |
Does FG have a way to find the average in-season BABIP, ISO, etc? |
9:49 |
: average, like league average? Just go to the leaderboards and click ‘league stats.’
|
9:50 |
Utley/Pedroia for Shields? |
9:50 |
: No, no I wouldn’t. I’d trade Shields for that, yes.
|
9:50 |
Max Scherzer. Is he a top 20 SP this year? Been offered him for my Detwiler and Wiley or Parker. |
9:50 |
: Yes do that.
|
9:50 |
Dunn was back too early too |
9:50 |
Is Miami actively shopping Stanton at this point? Expect a trade before deadline? |
9:51 |
: I wouldn’t expect it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas has the good and makes it happen.
|
9:51 |
Robbie Erlin – called up for long relief? Someone else bumping out of rotation? Seems like a waste |
9:51 |
: Maybe they just want to see what they’ve got.
|
9:51 |
Segura has 6 runs and 5 steals since you recommended that I pick him up last week. Won me my matchup last week. Credit where credit is due. Well done, Eno. |
9:51 |
: He’s been pretty crazy.
|
9:51 |
Yo ENO, I need your help man. I have a deal in place for Pablo but have to choose between Buchholz/Shelby Miller/Latos. Which one do I deal? |
9:51 |
: Buchholz.
|
9:52 |
: See this one would strike out 27 Howards.
|
9:52 |
where is Jaso’s ISO from last season? His LD% is pretty good. Gb% is lower than last season. Fb% is higher. despite avg babip of .306, is he a candidate for guy who should starting hitting soon? |
9:52 |
: He wasn’t ever a big power guy.
|
9:52 |
Gyorko or Ackley, who has the better season? |
9:52 |
: Gyorko.
|
9:52 |
I’ve seen some analysis blaming the appendicitis for Heyward’s initial struggles. Considering appendicitis is a sudden onset and surprising condition (coming from someone who went through it himself), is there any rational basis for that opinion? |
9:52 |
: Naw, things weren’t falling. He was a bit fly ball heavy, but that’s good for his power.
|
9:53 |
Eno, I am 31 years old and 220lbs. I hurt my back crowdsurfing during Reel Big Fish last Saturday. Thought you would approve |
9:53 |
: Awesome.
|
9:53 |
Does Shelby Miller pull a Lance Lynn, and fade late? |
9:53 |
: He’s riding that fastball and if the velocity does down a bit… yeah could happen.
|
9:53 |
$10 jansen for $19 J Zimm in FGPoints… who wins? |
9:53 |
: Zimm
|
9:53 |
does Chris Carter hit 30+ hr with an obp north of .300? |
9:53 |
: Yeah I think so. He’ll walk soon.
|
9:53 |
Thoughts on Bartolo Colon in FGPoints? |
9:54 |
: $1 at-home homer-avoiding spot starter.
|
9:54 |
Is this the year Lorenzo Cain finally realizes his potential? |
9:54 |
: And goes .275 10/20? Okay.
|
9:54 |
Gallardo, Jared Parker, and Bret Anderson are killing my pitching stats. Should I panic or just hold and hope? |
9:55 |
: You might have to risk dropping Parker too early. Give him a few starts, but you might need some controlled panic so you don’t fall too far behind.
|
9:55 |
Should I exercise patience with Gyorko? 12 team league and he’s doing nothing for me, but there’s so little out there at 2b. |
9:55 |
: If you have a decent starter, move on I guess. I don’t roster many backups. But if he’s starting for you, I’d wait. 2B sucks.
|
9:55 |
I have A.Avila and just picked up Ruiz. Should I keep both catchers is a 12 team roto 5×5. Is the extra catcher worth the extra PA in roto? |
9:55 |
: It’s hard to make it work. And you might get more out of an upside play on your bench.
|
9:56 |
MadBum cy young? It still blows my mind that he’s younger than Strasburg, Chris Sale, and even Matt Harvey. |
9:56 |
: Has to avoid his late season fade.
|
9:56 |
jose fernandez or andrew cashner RoS. both have good parks to pitch in and both have pretty rotten offensive support |
9:56 |
: Jose just because health.
|
9:56 |
Anderson actually looked alright last night, even though he got taken for 6ER in 4IP, know it sounds silly to stay but he looks healthy and the BABIP is off the charts. Are Lowrie and the infield good enough defensively to make you feel confident in owning him though? |
9:56 |
: Yeah I like him.
|
9:56 |
If I send you my Yahoo login info, would you just manage my team for me? Would really save me some time. |
9:56 |
Gyorko sucks. |
9:57 |
I’m in a retired players league. Should I sell high on Mark Bellhorn? |
9:57 |
: Interluded. But I will say that I don’t think Gyorko sucks. His bb/k rates are right where they were in minors, and it’s really just BABIP and power missing, and those things take forever.
|
9:57 |
BIS and PitchF/X both say James Shields’s velo is up about 0.5mph. Has he taken another step forward? |
9:57 |
: No he’s too old for that. The radar gun in Kauffman is hot. He’s probably down.
|
9:58 |
Did you know that every single Nationals starter is throwing fewer first-pitch strikes than they did last year? |
9:58 |
: Bad idea, but it sounds like it’s a bad idea that came from a coach.
|
9:58 |
Will Dunn rebound? |
9:59 |
: Swing and contact rates are the only rates that have stabilized. That doesn’t mean that Dunn’s current swing and contact rates will hold, just that his current swing and contact rates tell us more about his rates this year going forward than the league rates. Always had K problems, and they’re worse now that he’s swinging more. I’m not a fan.
|
9:59 |
High hopes for Kipnis this year? |
9:59 |
: Now here’s a guy who’s also had bad swing and contact rates, but I’m a little less worried. He’s had an aching elbow, and that could explain some if it. I still like him.
|
10:00 |
Can Stephen Drew contribute fantasy-wise this year? |
10:00 |
: very very barely, and more in deep leagues where warm bodies help.
|
10:00 |
What’s up with me? SIERA is almost a full point higher than my career average. My Ground Ball% is 10% higher than my career average. My Swing Strike% has fallen (again) to its lowest in a qualified season. First Pitch Strike% – Another career low. Guys aren’t swinging at my pitches, but when they are swinging they’re making contact at the same rate (both with respect to my career numbers). BABIP’s been a little unlucky, but my LOB% has been a little lucky. And here I sit with a 3.81 ERA in an Eno Sarris (is that some sort of fowl?) Fangraphs Chat. What’s up with me? |
10:01 |
: Niese makes the most of what I would call iffy stuff. The curve isn’t super sharp or exciting. The cutter is a cutter. The fastball is 90. So he has good control and gets grounders. He’s never going to be a real-life 1/2 so that makes him a fantasy 3/4 at best.
|
10:01 |
Time to drop Brett Anderson in a deep league? The best options on the wire are Chacin (when off of the DL) and Quintana. |
10:01 |
: No please don’t.
|
10:01 |
Lance Lynn is K’ing 10 per nine despite being down almost a whole mph in velo. Do you expect the velo drop to catch up with him, or is this a sign of better pitch mix? |
10:02 |
: I like him. Maybe more at 8 per 9, but that’s still good for starters, especially ones with decent GB%.
|
10:02 |
Why do people talk about First pitch strikes? Why do they matter? |
10:02 |
: First pitch strikes tell you more about a pitcher’s walk rate than his current walk rate.
|
10:02 |
: tell you more about a pitcher’s future walk rate I should say
|
10:03 |
Hey eno I finally made it to the lude parade i’m usually in class on thursdays but i didn’t go today |
10:03 |
BUT i would follow it in class like Jordan but I don’t get wifi in class because my school’s wifi blows 🙁 |
10:03 |
I can give class updates sometimes |
10:03 |
: One-man lude. Also, where’s Jordan for a class update.
|
10:03 |
Thoughts on J.Weaver after he comes back? Is he worth holding on to when I got other guys on the DL? |
10:03 |
: yeah it wasn’t his pitching shoulder and it might help him recover some of what’s missing.
|
10:04 |
When does Ryan Zimmerman make his first career start at first base? 2014? |
10:04 |
: Mid 2014, when the team can jettison/bench LaRoche and make Rendon the dude?
|
10:04 |
Halladay’s xFIP is down to 3.49. Think he can do that for the rest of the year? |
10:09 |
: I hadn’t noticed how much Doc has recovered. the strikeout rate is up, the ground ball rate is almost back up to 50%, the swinging strikes are back. Sorry computer froze.
|
10:09 |
: I thinke he might be a slight buy low!
|
10:09 |
What’s up with VMart’s lack of a slide at home? Could have cost me a run. |
10:10 |
: he’s an old man with shaky ligaments.
|
10:10 |
ENO! ENO!!!! It’s been four minutes, are you alive? |
10:10 |
: yes. thanks for the concern. I’m good.
|
10:10 |
how does high ABV beer not help with the “lost sleep” thing? I drank a stone old guardian ’13 this week and was asleep by 10 pm |
10:10 |
: Yeah, well, dude faked us out on sleeping through the night and isn’t there yet. doesn’t matter how zonked you are.
|
10:10 |
The next closer to lose his job is???? |
10:10 |
: Brandon League?
|
10:11 |
Didi Gregorious worth anything to you? |
10:11 |
: Sure. He could give a decent batting average with a bit of pop. he’s been nutso recently.
|
10:11 |
Over his last 600 PA’s, Paul Goldschmidt is a .300 hitter with 23 HR. Is he a different hitter than the mediocre average/high power player he was billed as? |
10:11 |
: No, I think the batting average will be down a bit.
|
10:11 |
Favorite beer that comes in a can? |
10:11 |
: Deviant Dales Pale Ale.
|
10:12 |
Rendon sent back down once Zimmerman healthy? |
10:12 |
: yes
|
10:12 |
Jaime Garcia/Duda for Pablo? who wins Eno? |
10:12 |
: Pablo
|
10:12 |
Who gets saves first – Axford or Marmol? |
10:12 |
: Axford
|
10:12 |
This is a seemingly serious baseball chat session this week. Did Dave and Dan yell at you? |
10:12 |
: No! Should we get funkier?
|
10:13 |
why still concerned about halladay? |
10:13 |
: If my last post wasn’t excited enough, it’s because of his age and his velocity is still down.
|
10:13 |
Should I still have Vogelsong on my roster? Why do I? |
10:13 |
: If your bench is deep, he’s still a decent home-starter.
|
10:13 |
Matt Moore for Jay Bruce, MadBum and mediocre bat for JHey or neither |
10:14 |
: Neither in redrafts. In keeper, some part of my likes the JHey deal, especially in OBP league.
|
10:14 |
who is your favorite buy low after a slow start |
10:14 |
: It was Heyward. Still like Rizzo. Will think of more.
|
10:14 |
Just wanted to make sure you saw that Lou Marson is healthy now. ESPN had it as the 3rd most important baseball story yesterday. |
10:14 |
Along is 24 hours by joy division |
10:14 |
Duda sounds like something associated with a drug. Like pass the duda. Or im so duda’d right now. |
10:15 |
Better Taco nickname: Moose Tacos or Tacoby Bellsbury? |
10:15 |
: Now that’ a silly interlude.
|
10:15 |
Grilli: Does he hold the closer job all year? Will PIT trade him at the deadline? |
10:15 |
: I like him. He kept his velocity. I think they signed him for two years. I like him.
|
10:15 |
whats new with beergraphs? |
10:16 |
: Trying to build up content and get the leaderboards up.
|
10:16 |
Thoughts on E.Hosmer? 12Roto stay patient? |
10:16 |
: I’ll wait.
|
10:16 |
I sent him to the principal’s office. |
10:16 |
: OH NOES JORDAN
|
10:16 |
Bacon Beer….could happen??? |
10:17 |
: Already did. Voodoo smoked bacon beer from Rogue. I actually liked it but it was universally panned.
|
10:17 |
Did you miss my class update from the beginning of the chat? We ran out of vodka. Celebrating our last day of class ever. What should we drink next? |
10:17 |
: HYELLO. This is much different classroom update. time for a whiskey drink, or so the song goes.
|
10:17 |
Is the best reason one would keep Hultzen in AAA and keep prancing Harang-Saunders out in the MLB rotation because a) Hultzen is fragile and learning his craft, b) service time, or c) Hultzen is not better than Harang? |
10:18 |
: I think the craft learning thing. Everything is not completely right.
|
10:18 |
Thoughts on Ted Lilly’s first start? |
10:18 |
: sweet handle. Lilly can put up a meh ERA and a good WHIP, he always does.
|
10:18 |
Rutledge or Rollins. Who wins? |
10:18 |
: this year I’ll still take Rollins, but Rut Rut in dynasty.
|
10:19 |
Rank’em |
10:19 |
: Done!
|
10:19 |
Do you like Daniel Murphy to continue to power spike? Is he taking a step forward / breaking out this year? |
10:19 |
: Eh. A breakout for him would be .290/10/5, and it would be fine at 2B, but barely top 12 if that.
|
10:19 |
Rank’em- Lagunitas: Sucks, Undercover Shutdowm, Brown Shugga? |
10:19 |
: sucks, sucks, sucks and Shugga
|
10:20 |
What to do with Josh Johnson… drop or hold on? |
10:20 |
: hold
|
10:20 |
Can I be trusted on the road at all, or am I strictly a homer? |
10:20 |
: I’ll go with home only for now.
|
10:20 |
Eno! can you rank for RoS? Parker, Beckett, Teheran, Shelby Miller. Thanks! |
10:20 |
: Shelby, Parker, Beckett, Teheran
|
10:20 |
kipnis is another guy you seem to like buying low on |
10:21 |
: Yeah I would. The second-year guys cost less than a veteran with a bad BABIP. More risk too.
|
10:21 |
Duda where’s my car? |
10:21 |
Thanks for the Joy Division, now I want to kill myself. |
10:21 |
Oppo Taco is the best taco nickname |
10:21 |
: an up and downer
|
10:21 |
need help with beergraphs? |
10:22 |
: Yes. Always. hit me up at my full name at hotmail.
|
10:22 |
I have 2 bottles of left hand nitro milk stout rotting away in my fridge. I don’t like ’em. Tell bleepbloop I’ll mail them to him. I’d rather just have a Guinness. |
10:22 |
: sad face emoticon. did you make sure to do the hard pour?
|
10:22 |
I thought Duda is what you heard before the shark attack…….. |
10:22 |
: slow clap
|
10:22 |
Ballast Point Sea Monster FTW! |
10:22 |
: Better than Victory at Sea?
|
10:22 |
What’re your thoughts on Mike Fiers? Everything about hi stats say he could improve from last year, yet he stunk in the spring and early in the season? |
10:23 |
: He doesn’t have a fastball. He pitches in a homer-happy park and gives up fly balls. I don’t get why his curve and change haven’t made for more Ks this year. I do think deep leaguers should keep an eye out, but in my 12ers I’ve dropped him.
|
10:23 |
Juan Lagres from the Mets worth any faab in nl only? |
10:24 |
: Right now a platooner. Could take Byrd’s job. Only a buck or two, for the bench.
|
10:24 |
How does Spin NOT get the start today??? I mean really?? |
10:25 |
: playing a lefty
|
10:25 |
Utley or Pedroia this year? |
10:25 |
: pedroia
|
10:25 |
Class might be over for Jordan. My uni has finals next week |
10:25 |
LIES! Nobody knows about the vodka we just drank! Well except for all of you now… |
10:25 |
what kind of class is this where they have vodka? i always had to put beer in a travel mug if i wanted to drink in class. people wondered why the mug was foaming over so i told them to MYOB |
10:26 |
: I do not condone underage drinking or drinking in class. /interluded and disclaimerd
|
10:26 |
I need a good excuse to cut out of work 2 hours early today…suggestions? |
10:26 |
: Something broke at your house. Like your water heater and it’s raining down on your neighbor. Something small but immediate.
|
10:27 |
Red Brandywine, Yellow Pear, or Black from Tula….best Heirlooms? |
10:27 |
: Love the yellows.
|
10:27 |
Favorite summer beer? Mine’s 21st Amendment Hell or High Watermelon. |
10:27 |
: Saison dupont.
|
10:27 |
I’d recommend Myanamar beer. Way better than Singha or Tiger. |
10:27 |
: Not a real high bar, but thanks!
|
10:27 |
Cut bait on Brett Anderson for Ryu or Jose Fernandez? |
10:27 |
: Nope. Not yet.
|
10:27 |
Rogue has a PB chocolate somethingerother now…. Probably not interested. They also make a whiskey… INTERESTED! |
10:27 |
: Had the whiskey. Is decent.
|
10:27 |
The real question is, are we going to be getting Jordan work updates now? |
10:28 |
: OH MY GOD HE’S GRADUATING AND HE JUST GOT HERE IT’S SO SAD
|
10:28 |
This chat is my favorite part of my week and I don’t drink beer or even really like baseball. |
10:28 |
I am not that Dave |
10:28 |
Tacoby Bellsbury put me over the edge. Genius. |
10:28 |
: Near the end, it’s all just interlude, huh.
|
10:28 |
Should defense be excluded from WAR until the All Star Break or something since it’s so UNRELIABLE!!! in small samples? Not that 3 months is a good sample but it’s better than 3 weeks. |
10:29 |
: No you just shouldn’t use WAR much in season.
|
10:29 |
In an NL only keeper just offered ($370 cap) Stanton 42 Skaggs 2 for Harvey 9 and Jon Jay 13, I also own Oscar taveras.. Can you comment on the deal please ? |
10:29 |
: Keep your cheapies. Although that’s a big cap, so Stanton is not super expensive. I just hate Skaggs. If he is interested in Jay, would see if I could get something interesting for Jay somewhere else. Oh, you get Harvey? Is okay.
|
10:30 |
Who’s at the top of your list of ownable platoon players. There are no full time players left on my WW. |
10:30 |
: Joyce. G Jones.
|
10:30 |
Is Ellsbury for Strasburg a slam dunk? How about for Cliff Lee? Chapman? |
10:30 |
: Not for Chap, but for the aces.
|
10:30 |
i’ve never had moose before but they don’t look very tasty |
10:30 |
then again, cows don’t look very tasty and yet here we are |
10:30 |
How dumb was it for Fredi Gonzalez to call for a suicide squeeze yesterday with Jordan Schafer at 3B and only 1 out? |
10:31 |
: Fredi being Fredi. That guy.
|
10:31 |
Bells Black Note Stout, if you haven’t had it.. I’m so sorry.. |
10:31 |
: Yes I want. Took me forever just to get two hearted.
|
10:31 |
Lunch: Tarragon chicken sandwich or Chipotle? |
10:31 |
: Tarragon. Chipotle makes me poo.
|
10:31 |
There’s a beer called “Sucks”? Is that like the Sh*tty Beatles from Wayne’s World? Or is Sucks, in fact, just a clever name? |
10:32 |
: Lagunitas Sucks is the name. They have funny names. They tried to have a beer name that wasn’t allowed so they just called it Censored.
|
10:32 |
So Rizzo is an upgrade over Ike. Is Rizzo worth Ike Davis and one of Weeks or Uggla? |
10:32 |
: Uggla and Ike for Rizzo, I’d actually do that.
|
10:32 |
Start E-Jax tonight? Should I even own him at all, ever, in any league? |
10:33 |
: yeah he’s ownable. and startable tonight.
|
10:33 |
Prediction for date we see Profar? 6/15? I want an impact bat to rise up from the minor league depths! Help! |
10:33 |
: Problem with him is he’s got no position waiting. Needs injury too.
|
10:33 |
Is Alex Gordon closer to 15 or 25 homers a year’s end? 20 or 10 steals? |
10:33 |
: 15 and 10
|
10:33 |
: He’s another Markakis and only a year or two younger.
|
10:33 |
how green is the moss for brandon. like the rbi numbers he is putting up? |
10:33 |
: BA coming down
|
10:34 |
What job or skill can I bring to beergraphs? |
10:34 |
: Data skills — much like FG we’ll need to slice and dice numbers — or writerly ability.
|
10:34 |
Hard pour a REQUIREMENT for LHMSN. Otherwise it sucks. |
10:34 |
SeaMonster…Try it dude, you’ll lubb it. |
10:34 |
If there is a question or comment I don’t understand, it must be about beer |
10:35 |
: boom. it’s like a short story.
|
10:35 |
I am 51 years old, and 6’5″ tall, and 285lbs. I chose NOT to crowdsurf at the Sparks concert last night. I’m sure none of the other oldies in the crowd would be able to hold me… discretion is the better part of valor. |
10:35 |
: Also good.
|
10:35 |
Rank the stouts: Coffee, Chocolate, Milk, Oatmeal. |
10:35 |
: milk, chocolate, coffee, oatmeal.
|
10:35 |
We are the last two people with a hotmail. |
10:35 |
: Well, it’s not my *only* email haha.
|
10:35 |
how is marlon byrd still in the majors? marlon. byrd. |
10:36 |
: Good argument for picking up Lagares.
|
10:36 |
me like pronk! |
10:36 |
: Actually looks good for 2/3 util value in deeper and OBP leagues.
|
10:36 |
Do you like Belgian Ales in general, specifically quads and triples? In the handful that I have tried the alcohol tends to come across a little too strongly. Just makes them tough to drink. |
10:36 |
: I actually don’t like them much. For the same reason, plus their yeast hits me wrong.
|
10:37 |
: Steve 1, I read philosophy and was like, duh, but physics? well done.
|
10:37 |
sizzurp. i don’t really have anything to say, i just like to say sizzurp. sizzurp. |
10:37 |
Clow Questions: Tell your boss you have food poisoning. Nobody asks about food poisoning. |
10:37 |
Water heater bursting to the point of raining in neighbor = not small |
10:38 |
so maybe clutching your stomach and lurching for the bathroom is better. |
10:38 |
I also do not condone underage drinking. Everyone in class is over 21. Graduate school. The school actually serves free beer every Thursday in the school in the Thursday Afternoon Club. |
10:38 |
: Well there you go. Copacetic/d.
|
10:38 |
Fort George Tender Loving Empire NWPA is a nice summer beer. |
10:38 |
: that’s a ton of name.
|
10:39 |
Non fantasy Q: Now that the Braves have a 4 game lead over the Nats, odds they win the division? I think they were even before the season so the Braves might have something like a 60-70% advantage. |
10:39 |
: We should have those soon, since we’re working with cool standings. I picked the Braves so I’m a genius.
|
10:39 |
: (for now)
|
10:39 |
What chore do you hate most? I am not a fan of doing the dishes because I spastically (if such a word) get water all over the place. |
10:40 |
: Frigging kitty litter. Reminds me of mining for gold in dahlonaga, but it’s crap.
|
10:40 |
Allen Craig for Fowler ROS |
10:40 |
: If you’re in a CF/OBP league, Fowler. Otherwise, I think I’d take .280+/25 over .275/15/15. (and those are the paces I’d peg for the two)
|
10:41 |
Need more Evan Gattis discussion. He’s still raking with that monster power. Not even getting a BABIP boost. |
10:41 |
: Is true. a lot looks legit. No line drives at all, though. All up in the air. I think he could be a decent fantasy catcher. Problem is, I’m still not sold on the defense. But NL teams need DH/1B/LF guys a little more now…
|
10:42 |
Well first you’ll get bar review course updates (which will involve what is happening outside my window), then you’ll get depressing updates about my job search (which will involve what is happening outside my window), then hopefully you’ll get work updates. |
10:42 |
: we have all this to look forward to
|
10:42 |
is there a worse event than “take your daughter to work day”? there is a small child hiding under my desk right now. i nearly kicked her by accident |
10:42 |
: “when do we go home daddy”
|
10:42 |
Hey Eno. So far this season I’ve seen more clear cut balls called for strikes against the Jays this year than I can ever remember. Any chance FG can do a piece on the team getting the worst strike calls? |
10:43 |
: You might be missing Jose Molina. This is a Sullivan question if I’ve ever seen one though.
|
10:43 |
For this season – Joyce or Moreland? |
10:43 |
: Joyce.
|
10:43 |
Harvey, Miller, Cobb or Cingrani. Can I/ Should I sell high on any of these guys? Who could get me Stanton? |
10:43 |
: Cingrani for sure. I’d pay the price of Cobb and Cingrani to get in on Stanton.
|
10:43 |
Just dropped Kipnis (waiver pick up last week) for Cashner. HOPE YOU’RE RIGHT, ENO. |
10:43 |
: wait what I wouldn’t tell you to do that
|
10:44 |
My Frazier for his Prado? Have Murphy at 2B and Headley at 3B now. Would slot in Prado at 2B. |
10:44 |
: Sure
|
10:44 |
where is the chris davis we all know and hate |
10:44 |
: He’s actually changed some of his swing and contact rates, and those stabilize early, so I’m a little more excited about him than I was on Tuesday.
|
10:44 |
I have had a moose burger once. It seemingly is also really reddish looking on the inside, so it feels like you are eating uncooked meat. |
10:44 |
: Well, that’s called rare, and it’s usually the way to go, but who knows with Moose.
|
10:45 |
Eno, have you ever tried North Coast Old Rasputin Stout? It’s often hard to find, but so good. |
10:45 |
Also, Deschutes Abyss and Sierra Nevada Narwahl respectable additions to the stout list. |
10:45 |
: I like all of these beers.
|
10:45 |
What can we expect from Brandon Belt this year? |
10:45 |
: .275/15/10
|
10:45 |
I need a name change… too many Daves around here. And even two Dave S’s now. Moniker suggestions? |
10:45 |
: Person. (ducks)
|
10:45 |
Should an Iwakuma fantasy owner be concerned about his blister? He seems to be effective so far with it. |
10:46 |
: blisters don’t bother me that much. At most, they take a two-week break and are fine.
|
10:46 |
wait, so i do start Slowey tonight against the cubbies? even a meh performance is good for me |
10:46 |
: I am.
|
10:46 |
LOUD NOISES!!!! |
10:46 |
Are you building an algorithm for beer ranking? Or is it just based on subjective reviews? |
10:46 |
: It’s based on subjective reviews, but we want to correct for as many biases as we can show.
|
10:46 |
i had my appendix out when I was in 8th grade (1998, i think). But if his surgery was arthroscopic he would probably be playing in 2 or 3 weeks. Probably won’t be at full strength for a month though. Getting the strenght back to rotate his hips to swing will take the longest. |
10:46 |
: Helpful.
|
10:47 |
You guys need to work with the guys who make The Show video game. Fangraphs could make baseball video gaming so AMAZING! |
10:47 |
: Yes. I have talked about this before. Would be awesome, no?
|
10:47 |
You should rename your chat from baseball chat to boring, random chat. |
10:47 |
: whoo boy it IS random.
|
10:48 |
I had 5 picks between 18th and 27th in last years minor league draft, I came away with Cecchini, Lucas Sims, McCullers Jr., Eflin I even snagged Travieso 45th overall. How should I be feeling? Especially with Cecchini |
10:48 |
: I like McCullers but he needs some work on his delivery. He’s not looking at the plate! Maybe that’s not true any more.
|
10:48 |
Food poisoning: brilliant! |
10:48 |
*holding up a 9 iron in a thunderstorm* |
10:48 |
My mom just called me 20 minutes ago to tell me her water heater broke…trippy. |
10:49 |
: luded interlude
|
10:49 |
rank’em: morrow, cahill, parker, jackson, niese |
10:50 |
Cahill has shown enough for me to maybe be first. Parker above morrow because his swSTR is gone. |
10:50 |
Worst chore: Doggie Doodoo Duty |
10:50 |
: Because it gets all over the grass and the bag and it stink and yeah.
|
10:50 |
Eno do I start Hammel tonight?! Or just start steaming from that SP position? |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Jose Valverde?