FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 3/17/15

3:17	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! If you haven’t yet vomited up delicious green beer all over yourself, join Jeff and myself at 9 pm ET and we’ll cram some baseball in your various orifices. Until then, ponder the eternal St. Patrick’s Day question: http://www.imdb.com/title/t…

9:00	Paul Swydan: One sec guys.

9:04	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this. Jeff will be along in a sec.

9:04	Comment From Vic Drafting in a 15 team 5 x 5 this weekend…..I have pick 7. Abreu or Gomez? If you drafted 10 times, how many times would you take Abreu?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I would take Abreu….probably 8 times out of 10?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Abreau

9:05	Paul Swydan: There are probably a few leagues where the rules would bend in Gomez’s favor, but I like Abreu better for sure.

9:05	Comment From John Farrell Happy St. Patrick’s Day! So as of this fine March 17th, which three players do you expect to be starting in the Red Sox outfield come Opening Day?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’ll still say Hanley, Mookie and Rusney. Even though we’re not hearing anything about it, I am going to hold onto the blind faith that Victorino will be traded before camp ends.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Castillo, Victorino and Hanley

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Shane stays

9:07	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:07	Comment From Biggy In a H2H where you keep only five, do you need an ace to compete? I have trout, miggy, rizzo, cutch locked in

9:07	Paul Swydan: You never NEED an ace, and you’re likely to score a lot of runs with that lineup, assuming that one of Miggy/Rizzo is your utility spot.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: No need for an Ace in H2H. Two start pitcher are more important.

9:08	Paul Swydan: For sure. Which is why I hate H2H.

9:08	Comment From Biggy In a h2h, do you need an ace to compete…..locked in with miggy, trout, cutch, rizzo, but debating my fifth between puig and Strasburg……how necessary is an ace? Stras is my only chance, rest are gone

9:08	Paul Swydan: Oh, I see, he added to the question. Ya, I’d keep Puig. Trout, Cutch and Puig is a killer OF.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Take Puig, Stras could blow out his elbow any day.

9:09	Paul Swydan: And then you can spend the draft focusing on catcher and middle infielder.

9:09	Comment From Biggy Worried about Corey Dickerson? Plate discipline, road splits, lefty splits…..should I keep Hosmer over him?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Definitely hang onto Dickerson, not worried about him at all.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Not worried. I think he has warts and you need to live with them

9:10	Comment From Raymond Will the Orioles go with Schoop or Cabrera at 2B?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I have to think it’s Schoop, but I have admittedly not been keeping a watchful eye on that.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Schoop to start with. I still like Cabrera is steal leagues, especially deep ones. He could pull a Dyson like season by pinch running.

9:12	Comment From Pale Hose Barring disaster, Jimmy Rollins will become 6th all time in innings at shortstop and the 3rd player to reach 50 WAR with a sub 100 wRC+. No question, just appreciation.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Pale Hose, everybody!

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: and the single season leader in at bats.

9:12	Comment From Bryan G. Hey gents. I asked about a month and a half ago which pitchers you thought were most likely to need TJS this season. Jeff guessed Ross, Tanaka, and Darvish (ding!). Paul guessed Waino, Tanaka, and Buchholz. Still feeling pretty good (well, bad) about those predictions?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Just wanted to post this to note that Jeff was — as usual — dead on with that Yu Darvish call.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I feel good with mine.

9:13	Comment From franco Is it possible for Kris Bryant to ever live up to the current hype machine?

9:14	Paul Swydan: No. Not a chance. He’s already being treated like a God, based on a few homers in spring training games. People are tuning in now expecting greatness. Tough to live up to that.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, I would love to know how teams are pitching him (just FB, etc). He could really struggle has teams only attack his weakness to start the season.

9:15	Comment From Cwik How did you let Cwik draft a better ottoneu team than you, Paul?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I allowed nothing of the sort!

9:15	Comment From Andy Grandal or D’Aurnaud?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Grandal for me.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Close….. maybe Grandal on plate appearances

9:17	Comment From Atlanta Braves What are we doing?

9:18	Paul Swydan: “Punting until it’s time for the new ballpark” is the most optimistic answer I can give you.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea. Maybe trying to build, but I don’t get the Nick M signing at all.

9:18	Comment From DongDongs Everybody from now on will refer to HR’s as “DONG DONGS”. Understood?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I do not understand.

9:19	Comment From Pork Value What the hell are the Reds doing with Tony Cingrani? Isn’t it best for everyone to see if he can recapture his old form?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: It sounds like he wasn’t. Could he go to AAA to find out? Maybe Tony doesn’t want to go there?

9:20	Paul Swydan: As Dave mentioned in his post today, the Reds may know something about his ability to develop secondary pitches and/or his health that we just don’t know. However, given the Reds’ not so great track record the past few years, I’m not inclined to give them the benefit of that doubt.

9:21	Paul Swydan: This is a guy with a very thin history of relief performance who is coming off a shoulder injury who they want to throw into the bullpen mix, where he may have to warm up on a moment’s notice. Not exactly what I would call the smartest idea.

9:21	Paul Swydan: They really should just trade him somewhere where he can have a chance to start.

9:21	Comment From Monkeyfingers Lets say the yankees choose a closer at some point. For the sake of argument, we’ll call the winner Betances. How many saves do we think Miller leeches? Or viceversa?

9:21	Paul Swydan: At least a half dozen.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: That sounds about right.

9:22

Comment From NL Only
This is sheer looking ahead, which I do often for this NL only league, however if I had to pick eight of these players going into the ’16 MLB season, who would you guys take? (No cash, no rounds, just pure year to year keep) Ramos, Belt, Wong, Wright, Peralta, Crawford, Pollock, Puig, Alcantara, A. Russell, C. Seager, Harvey, Wood, or McCarthy. 12 teams, 25 man roster, 3 DL, 2 NA. Thanks!

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: No Wood, McCarthy, Wright, Ramos, Alcantara and Peralta

9:24	Paul Swydan: Wow, a tough one. Definites – Puig, Russell, Seager Probables – Harvey, Wong, Wood Maybes – Belt, Wright, Pollock, Peralta

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t trust pitcher for production next week.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Always a good policy.

9:25	Comment From Bryant Who would you rather build the team around? Kris Bryant or Tulo?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Uh, Tulo.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I am just not a Tulo guy and will go with Bryant

9:26	Comment From Conor A lot of disagreement tonight! I like it

9:26

Comment From Guy
So I have an auction saturday where the player nominations are randomly drawn from ESPN’s top 200, before moving on to turn-based elective nominations. My league is about 80% die-hard Indians fans, and I have the priviliege of nominating the very first player up for auction. Which of Cleveland’s top 200 players would you guys throw out first in order to draw the biggest overpay? I’m leaning towards Brantley (I think Kluber is going to earn most of his price, but maybe I’m just a homer)

9:28	Paul Swydan: That is an interesting system. Can’t say that I’ve heard of that. I’d say there’s a good chance that Kluber and Brantley go in the top 200 section, but I would start there if not and then move on to Santana and Carrasco.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Though you may actually want Carrasco.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: and maybe Kipnis

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Test

9:29

Comment From Mookie the Wookie
When it comes to keeping players is there a point where the price on player is too good to pass on? Im in a 5×5 obp league keep 5 at last years price. My last keeper spot I’m caught between between a $1 T.Frazier (the best value), a $10 Soler (my favorite long term), or a $16 C.Santata (C eligible). Thanks for the help guys!

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Test

9:30	Paul Swydan: I would keep Soler. No shame in keeping Frazier, but I doubt you pay more for Frazier this year, whereas Soler could end up going for more than $10 in future years.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:30	Comment From Pork Value If Daniel Murphy was ranked as your 12th 2B, what, if any shift in the ranks do the fences being moved in at Citi Field give him?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Not much when I looked at it. Maybe a home run or two.

9:31	Comment From Pork+Value Hey Jeff, what’s a four letter word that begins with t?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry about that, I lost my internet connect for a few secs

9:32	Paul Swydan: None, to be honest. 5 of his 10 homers were plenty or no doubt, so the fences might not mean that much to him. http://www.hittrackeronline…

9:33	Comment From Meano Eno why do the projections have such low innings totals for Smyly?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Because of the shoulder thing. If he gets over it quickly then we’ll bump him up, but it seems odd that we’re three weeks out and he’s already been ruled out for his first start. Why even bother mentioning this now?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure exactly, but could be conbination of his injury and a lack of high inning totals in the past.

9:34	Paul Swydan: In general, we skew conservative with the depth charts.

9:34	Comment From Joe How soon can we expect Nathan to lose his role as closer, who takes over?

9:35	Paul Swydan: This was what we talked about all through 2014, and it never happened, so I’m done trying to predict this one.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I give him a month and like Rodon to eventually take over

9:36	Comment From Burt Reynolds Was I worse as a minor leaguer for the Royals or as Boss Hogg in the 2005 movie remake of the Dukes of Hazard?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Burt Reynolds played minor league ball?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Both were probably unwatchable

9:37	Comment From hscer @fangraphs already sent out the ICYMI tweet for this…

9:37	Paul Swydan: Haha, I saw that!

9:37	Comment From Ryan Depth chart says the Reds have the 26th best rotation in baseball. Agree or disagree?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: We were ahead of schedule on something?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds about right. Two studs and not much else to get excited about.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Agree. It’s basically Cueto, Bailey and pray for rain.

9:38	Paul Swydan: And I don’t even think Bailey is all that good.

9:39	Comment From Gangsta Pete What are you real thoughts on Altuve. I could use a low k/high average guy, but I could also use a stud ace. Would you take Altuve or Mad Max if you needed both?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I would probably take Scherzer.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Altuve, when in doubt, take the hitter.

9:39	Comment From star power outlook on tyson ross

9:40	Paul Swydan: He’ll be good until he’s hurt. Whether you want him depends entirely on your risk profile.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: More of ’14 until his arm comes off from throwing 40% sliders.

9:41	Comment From E Am I the only one who didn’t know a pitcher who could paint the corners was called a Rembrandt? I get the reference but i didn’t know that was a thing.

9:41	Paul Swydan: It’s probably not JUST you, but I was aware of this before.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I have never heard it before

9:41	Paul Swydan: See?

9:41	Comment From Glenallen Hills Spiders Zach Britton was once heralded as the next Strasburg (Jayson Stark) then he flamed out as a starter. Any chance he flames out as a closer?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Well, the history of closers tell us that he is likely to flame out at some point, but I think he has landed on a good formula.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: He is good enough to close. He sinker is deadly with its movement and speed.

9:43	Comment From Rated Rookie How does Mookie not begin the season as one of the Boston starting OFs?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think he does. If he doesn’t, it’ll be all Victorino’s fault.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: because the Red Sox paid too much $$$$ to the other outfielders.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Haters gon hate.

9:44	Comment From MattF Gattis or mesoraco and why?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Mesoraco. Because he’s better?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Gattis, the DH option is the reason. Also after seeing Perez worn down on the 150 game catcher plan, I see Mesoraco having similar issues.

9:46	Paul Swydan: You think Mesoraco is playing 150 games this year?

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: According to Price, yes.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Oh, interesting.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe 145

9:47	Comment From Joe In a league where Santana qualifies at catcher, where do you place him at the position?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Top guy

9:47	Paul Swydan: He’s second in wOBA here. http://www.fangraphs.com/pr… Probably top three is safe.

9:47	Comment From Rated Rookie Which of the three SS (maybe 3B) prospects do you want in a keep-forever format: Addison Russell, Carlos Correa or Corey Seager? What’s the difference-maker between them?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Russell, because he is going to stay at shortstop and Seager isn’t, and Russell is a) closer and b) I think the bat is going to be better.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Correa will hit better, but really close

9:48	Paul Swydan: So. Many. Disagreements.

9:49	Comment From rustydude It would seem that Rembrandt would have had to have avoided the middle of the canvas for the analogy to make any sense.

9:49	Paul Swydan: You’re thinking about it too much. We just like saying the name “Rembrandt.”

9:50	Comment From hscer Rembrandt Rembrandt Rembrandt Rembrandt Rembrandt Rembrandt Rembrandt Rembrandt Rembrandt Rembrandt Rembrandt

9:50	Paul Swydan: See?

9:50	Comment From pepper in a vacuum….forever keeper, no rounds/dollars. baez or pederson?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Too many letters in Rembrandt

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Pederson

9:51	Paul Swydan: Prob Pederson. He was #1 in the KATOH top 200: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:51	Paul Swydan: Damn, I really wanted to disagree with Jeff there.

9:52	Comment From Joe Can you direct me to medical evidence that demonstrates that if you throw a lot sliders, your are will eventually break?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I’m sure Jeff has something more conclusive, but this is the one that raised the initial red flag for me: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: High slider pitchers are just more likely to be DL bound (see Darvish) and getting the link …..

9:54	Comment From peachesnnuts Philosophy question: I have great cheap keepers and plan on drafting 5 or so $1-2 guys so I have lots of money left for less spots than most. Do i blow it out for the few remaining top studs and have some more cheaper options or fill the roster out with $15 guys?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

9:55	Paul Swydan: To me, I go for the studs, because filling out with $15 guys is a lot harder to do.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the $15-$20 route if done right

9:55	Comment From Nittanychris Best pitching protect in a 12 Team Mixed $260 Auction League: $3 Carlos Carrasco, $3 Alex Wood or $7 Jake Arrieta. Thanks!

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Carrasco…. I am not sure Wood will get many Wins this year.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Ooh, tough one. I’m tempted to say Arrieta, just because NL vs AL, but Carrasco is not a bad choice. Neither is Wood. I’ll say Arrieta.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul can’t even agree with himself tonight

9:57	Paul Swydan: Hahahaha. I need my coin!

9:57	Paul Swydan: (That’s a Two-Face joke, FYI. He’s a Batman villain.)

9:58

Comment From TJ
NL only 5×5 – 7 player keeper, 2 C’s. Any C who catches 110+ games will go for 8-12 and while I wasn’t planning on keeping a $4 Bethancourt, having second thoughts. He would be my second C after a well price Mesoraco and would be over a $1 J.Nelson or $3 H.Alvarez. He’s having a nice spring so far. Think he could surprise on the upside a bit?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Alvarez would be nice, but if catchers are that important then I think you’re fine rolling with Bethancourt, even given his offensive limitations.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Jimmy Nelson, but you know your league best.