FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/28/15

by Paul Swydan

April 28, 2015

5:49	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to cram some baseball into your baseball holes! Fill up the queue and we’ll see you soon.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Comment From Pale Hose Hey guys. I tried DFS for the first time yesterday. Safe to say I’m hooked. Any general advice for a beginner to that format?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I don’t play DFS, because it seems like the sort of time sink that I can’t manage at this stage of my life, but I remember when we did Pick Six that one year that you had to prepare for failure every day.

9:03	Comment From a eskpert If you had a team of all immobile Sluggers (Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Jim Thome, Good Ryan Howard) playing every position but pitcher, how many thousand runs would they score and allow against an average team (and Mark Beurhle’s pitching)?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Many thousands of runs. I can’t imagine them in the middle infield and in center.

9:04	Comment From Los 12 Team league, drafted Gomez, Puig, Rendon, Wainwright, Jansen, Holland, Iwakuma, Wright with my first 8 picks (with McCarthy and Stroman later on). I’m currently in 7th place and feel like I deserve a medal.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Yamahama, it’s fright night! Sorry to hear that. I’ve dodged most of those bullets so far — just Gomez in one league — but I feel your pain nonetheless.

9:05	Comment From brad how awful are baseball owners that they have made arod and Hamilton out to be victims?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Victims is a strong word, but yes, it was an unlikely turn of events for sure.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone, I was dealing with my kids and had to grab and 8-bit

9:07	Paul Swydan: You mean like a Nintendo?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: It is a beer

9:07	Paul Swydan: Ah! That makes more sense.

9:08	Comment From Lorem Ipsum Could Michael Bourn be done? His batspeed looks glacial.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: http://tallgrassbeer.com/pr…

9:08	Paul Swydan: I’m bearish.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: He could be without the speed, not much else is there.

9:08

Comment From Bobby Blownilla
Need to fill 2 pitching slots. Can play match-up. Have Gio, Fister, Eovaldi, J. Kelly, C. Anderson, and D. Norris. Really just need them to not have bad games vs. having awesome ones. QS league. Too volitile a group or should I go get someone? I do have roster size restrictions. thanks!

9:09	Paul Swydan: Too volatile a group, I would definitely try to get someone.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Right now I would go with Gio and Anderson of the group.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I would say Gio and Fister, though that puts a lot of stock in a floundering Nationals team.

9:10	Comment From Ullu Ka Patta Correa correa correa, I know it’s 99% not going to happen even with Lowrie on the DL, but one can always hope.

9:11	Paul Swydan: OH INDEED.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Just not yet

9:11	Comment From Bobby Bats Freeman for Price, straight up. Good deal if I have Abreu and Moss?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think so. I’m certainly higher on Abreu than I am Freeman, so you’re keeping the better guy.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see it, go for it.

9:12	Comment From Nittanychris Rougned Odor – cut him loose or ride it out? Why? Thanks!

9:12	Paul Swydan: I’m still holding on, but my patience is certainly wearing thin.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on league depth and replacements.

9:13	Comment From Taijuana Throw Up Good evening gentlemens! Waited on pitching (AL) so have lots of low-tier guys. Have been burned picking and choosing matchups. (Lately with Karns) Do you have a feeling/policy about running arms out vs sitting em down?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Generally, when I’m streaming, I judge who I pick more based on the opponent than on the quality of the pitcher.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I probably go with more middle relievers in leagues where Karns is in player. Good rates and then go with two start guys.

9:15	Comment From Steve If you had to choose today, would you keep Bryant or Kluber? H2H points and it’s a home run/SP driven league with the caveat that K’s don’t count against hitters.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Probably Bryant.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Bryant with the caveat

9:16	Paul Swydan: what caveat?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: The strikeout one he mentioned

9:17	Paul Swydan: Ah yes.

9:17	Comment From Steve Should I crush the pint of Ben and Jerry’s I have waiting in my freezer?

9:17	Paul Swydan: How is this even a question? YES! What flavor?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Not huge fan of ice cream as a late night snack

9:18	Paul Swydan: What? When do you eat ice cream then?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I like it more in the afternoon as a snack when it is hot.

9:19	Comment From Steve It’s chocolate chip cookie dough. Not sure if anything else is in it though. Ben and Jerry are sneaky.

9:19	Comment From The Big Dipper For breakfast, usually

9:19	Comment From Joey Jo Jo Jr Peter Gammons mentioned that Kelly has a 120 inning ceiling. How soon do you see him moving to late inning duties?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: At probably around 100 innings

9:20	Paul Swydan: 90-100, if that is indeed true.

9:20	Comment From Baseball fan When does the Red Sox starting rotation officially become a problem?

9:20	Paul Swydan: In a month or so. If this keeps up, they’ll need to get Eduardo Rodriguez or Steven Wright in there and see if they can be solutions.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: It started out that way. It wasn’t strong in any way at the beginning of the season.

9:22	Comment From Michael Wait, what? Why is the Red Sox starting rotation a problem? With the exception of Wade Miley, they all have SIERAs below 4.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well that’s why I said in a month. Low SIERAs are nice, but the team so far has had a knack for unraveling in the early innings, and that is not a tenable long-term strategy.

9:23	Comment From Steve Thoughts on Pineda possibly becoming an ace?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Pineda’s K – BB% last year was fantastic, and it’s only getting better. If he can keep this up — and I’m not saying he can — but IF he can, there’s going to be a whole lot of accolades tossed his way before long.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t see him as an Ace, probably a 2-3 at max. He is just no dominate enough

9:25	Comment From Michael Whyyyyy John Farrell?!? Why do you have to kill our bullpen? Why do you refuse to understand that runs allowed in one inning is not at all predictive of runs allowed in the next inning? Why can’t someone from the front office explain to you what the $^&* BABIP is? 🙁

9:26	Paul Swydan: Like I was saying about those crooked number innings.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: The Red Sox can call some people up if they really need to.

9:26

Comment From WTF
What is going on with all these bad pitching performances? Guys giving up hits galore walking guys some have 13 base runners in 2 innings. How does a professional end up doing that, I’m 45 years old and I could do that for alot less money. Between Carlos Carrasco, Drew Hitchison, Wade Miley and Kyle Gibson my team is getting killed. I’ve already lost Stroman and Cobb to injury in a keeper league, WTF.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Deep breath. Inhale….exhale.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds like my Ottoneu team

9:28	Comment From Steve Why don’t players bunt against extreme shifts?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Bunting is hard, and if you’re not good at it, it’s a good way to hurt yourself. Most players don’t like hurting themselves.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Egos. I really don’t get it with no one on base.

9:29	Comment From Steve Will Strasburg right the ship or is it wise to get out while I still can?

9:30	Paul Swydan: The K rate is way down, and the velocity continues to go down: http://www.fangraphs.com/st… 94.3 is still pretty good, but it’s certainly not a good trend.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: He has several issues going on including the horrible Nats D. I think he gets over valued each season. Sell him. Someone still thinks he is one of the top 5 starters in the game.

9:31	Paul Swydan: I agree with Jeff.

9:31

Comment From John
so i know its a long roto season, but at what point do you just be like, well if i sell now, i might get the best keepers? nobody on my team is performing to their projections, and i just lost mccarthy for the year which kills me in a 13 team nl only league… nothing on the wire that can possibly help… i am screwed, yes? … i guess im asking, when is it too early to sell

9:31	Paul Swydan: It’s never too early to sell, but I don’t like selling in April. It makes it hard to enjoy the season. Give your team another month or so.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I always wait 2 months. You wait all off season to give up in less than a month. Eno lost his Ace in LABR is still trying to give it a go.

9:33	Comment From What are your early thoughts on Wil Myers so far? Do you think Joc Pederson moves up in the Dodgers lineup soon?

9:33	Comment From Jared Do you think Joc Pederson can continue to hit over .250 with his current plate discipline?

9:33	Paul Swydan: 2 Joc questions in 1!

9:34	Paul Swydan: I think he will eventually move up in the lineup, but I think .250 is still going to be tough. He has a .419 BABIP and still isn’t hitting .300. That’s tough to do!

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: His plate discipline is a huge issue. I worry about strikeouts bringing down Bryant also

9:35	Comment From Bo Who provides more 5×5 value the rest of the way – Steven Souza or Ben Revere?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I’ll go Souza.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Souza IMO, I like the balance attack of power and speed

9:36	Paul Swydan: So, for qualified hitters in baseball history, only 2002 Jose Fernandez pulled off +.400 BABIP and -.300 AVG for a whole season: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:37	Comment From Guest What is the depth charts projections on the player pages. It looks like it is roughly an average of Zips and steamer. Is this correct?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: He is one of the few to pull off the .400 BABIP

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yes, it is 50/50.

9:37	Paul Swydan: If you drop it to 300 PA, you can include Drew Stubbs last year as well: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:38	Comment From El Guapo The Adam Ottavino news fills me with sadness. That is all.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Agreed. Wonder if Jeff has a prognosis?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Seems like he’s headed for TJ.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Everyone has TJS now a days. It is crazy. I still think it may be better shoulder holding up and then the elbow has to give.

9:40	Comment From The Big Dipper So is Tanaka

9:40	Comment From El Guapo If you had pitching woes, would you deal Puig for King Felix? I love you guys. Even though Jeff is never here. Or there. 😉

9:41	Paul Swydan: Haha. Thanks. I would do that deal, yes.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I might make the trade even if I didn’t have pitchig issues.

9:41	Comment From Tony So Buchholz got shelled… but the peripherals still look really nice… 11.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 52% GB%, … good season ahead?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I gave up on trying to project Clay Buchholz a long time ago.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so as long as he is healthy

9:43	Comment From Bones Was offered Lester for Chapman and Anibal Sanchez and Greinke for Chapman and Kazmir. Which one should I take? Neither? My only other closer is Cecil. 11-team, 5×5 roto league.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I like the Lester one.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I would make the Lester trade

9:44	Comment From VOTE What is your Franchise Four of Fangraphs?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Four Pauls

9:45	Paul Swydan: That’s hard, because there are at least six people who deserve to be on it, one of whom is Zimm.

9:46	Comment From Minty It’s still too early, but when should worry if Sano and Buxton’s “rust” continues?

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, I figured it would take them at least 2-3 months to get going.

9:46	Paul Swydan: In a month or two.

9:46	Comment From Marcus Banks Either of you going to the Orioles game tomorrow?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I may watch to see how creapy it is.

9:47	Paul Swydan: I definitely want to watch. We’ll see if the children cooperate.

9:47	Comment From Northsider There have been talks that the DH coming to the NL might be discussed in the 2016 CBA. What % would you give to this actually happening?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think 75%. It will be sad for me, since I think baseball should go the other way. I hate the DH, and as I detailed in the DH PPR back in March, most teams don’t really use a traditional DH anymore.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Right now 15%, if I was an NL owner, I wouldn’t want it. It would probably drive up payroll $10M and I think they would like an extra $10M

9:49	Comment From The Boat So the Mets…could they, perhaps, trade Daniel Murphy at the deadline to fill a different need, replace him with Dilson Herrera, and actually improve in so doing?

9:50	Paul Swydan: It’s definitely possible.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: It is a long season between now and then. I think they could get a real assest if they look to move a prospect or two.

9:51	Comment From The Big Dipper No Tanaka talk yet?

9:51	Comment From Phillies113 Tanaka is shut down, as baseball loses yet another starting pitcher. Meanwhile, the Phillies have this shiny Cole Hamels just sitting there, gathering dust.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think the Yankees have enough prospects to get Hamels compared to other teams.

9:52	Paul Swydan: I’m just seeing this. Injury seemed inevitable, though it isn’t his elbow. Perhaps it was a cascade injury?

9:53	Comment From Michael Is Hamels really shiny? I’d rather hold out for Cueto.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: The Reds don’t trade

9:53	Paul Swydan: Holding out for the Reds to do anything seems like a foolish strategy. They can’t even put Mesoraco on the DL…

9:53	Comment From frank Do u like what you see out of Rodon so far? Is he destined for the rotation soon or will he continue to work out of the pen?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: He needs to throw strikes before he will be useful in either role.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Again, as we mentioned last week, they let Sale relieve for a whole year, so it may not be any time soon.

9:54	Comment From Marcus Banks What is your process for selecting comments. Sometimes you’ll answer them seconds after I ask, but other times you’ll post one that I asked a half hour ago

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I have no clue how Paul picks them. Maybe he is drunk. Maybe?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Generally, for the first half hour or so, I try to pick the comments that came in first, and then I go to the newest comments after that, and if we run out I work my way back up to those in the middle. It’s probably not the best strategy, but it’s A strategy!

9:56	Comment From hondo i need to drop one for a pitcher. 6×6 10 team H2H. bogaerts, harrison, vmart

9:56	Paul Swydan: Harrison

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Harrison or Bogaerts. I like harrison off the bench to fill multiple roles. You may look at a 2-1 trade or trade for a DL’ed player like Zobrist.

9:58	Comment From MrMaddness Worse fielder, 2015 Hanley Ramirez in LF or 2011 Mark Reynolds at 3B?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I’ll be optimistic and say Reynolds, but Hanley is going to give him a run for his money. The first game I went to this year, he DUCKED to let a ball go over his head and hit the Monster.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I didn’t think anyone could be worse than Mark Reynolds in the field, maybe Adam Dunn in the OF

9:59	Comment From Baseball fan Hanley is amazing 9 home runs already