FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/24/16

by Paul Swydan

May 24, 2016

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Jeff may be late. Kids stuff. Pro tip – Never become an adult.

9:01	Paul Swydan: I have to say, I’m surprised 10.3% of you have faith in Jackie Bradley Jr. to beat Joe DiMaggio’s record. I guess someone’s gotta do it.

9:01	Jeet: I finally made it to a chat

9:01	Paul Swydan: Congrats Jeet!

9:01	Amir Garrett: Will I be in the majors this year? Makes sense right?

9:02	Paul Swydan: It absolutely makes sense, but the Reds front office isn’t always dictated by logic. So you know, we’ll see.

9:02	hscer: o/u 1 career .500 OBP season for Bryce Harper

9:02	Paul Swydan: Wow that’s a great question. Let’s put it to a poll!

9:03	Paul Swydan: I gave you guys an out, because I’m nice like that. Sticking to the original question, I’ll say under. Zero.

9:03	Ben: better pitcher in 5 years: thor or kershaw?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Kershaw.

9:03	The Hot Stove: Traded away Votto+Dietrich+Latos for VMart+Desmond+Houston Street. How did I do

9:04	Paul Swydan: Meh? I think that’s fairly even.

9:04	Michael Saunders: Am I a top 20 OF. Who would you rather have ROS – me or Gallo?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Gallo. At least you’ll be able to get good value for Gallo because he has some hype. No matter how good Saunders does, he’ll always be one dive away from a 3-month DL stint, so no one is going to give you value for him.

9:05	Bork: Hello, friends!

9:05	Paul Swydan: Sup Bork

9:05	Homesickalien: Which Mariners reliever gets the next shot for saves if Cishek falters? Let’s say everyone’s at full health.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Oh fun, a chance to plug the Bullpen Report. The Bullpen Report guys do excellent work – you should always read them first. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bullpen-report-may-23-2016/

9:06	Paul Swydan: They have Benoit up next, in case you want to save the click.

9:06	Bork: Devon Travis is returning very soon. Any predictions for when he’s back?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi, everyone sorry to leave you alone with Paul.

9:07	Paul Swydan: My prediction? Pain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

9:07	Paul Swydan: No, seriously, I’m hoping that he will be back at full strength, and I’m still a huge fan.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I had a recent quote in my last MASH report

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/178899022/blue-jays-devon-travis-near-return-from-dl

9:08	The Middle Infielders: Tulo or Kinsler ROS?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Kinsler

9:09	Paul Swydan: Xander just missed another double by a couple feet.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea …. but it is close for me

9:09	Stenzy: Realistic trade targets for Giants at deadline? Chapman, Rodney, Pomeranz possibilities?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think Chapman will be for sure. Rodney doesn’t seem like the kind of guys the Giants usually target. Pomeranz will probably cost them more, since he’s in division and under control for a bit.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I think anyone could be in play. I think the NL stinkers may look to trade once the draft is over.

9:11	Stenzy: Hey look! Angel Pagan to the DL…again. Who do the Giants get to play LF?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Shane Victorino doesn’t have a job

9:12	Paul Swydan: I won’t be surprised if they just roll with Parker and Blanco. Parker is starting tonight.

9:12	Paul Swydan: But ha, yeah, the Giants are the kind of team that could resurrect Victorino.

9:12	Erik: None of the current AL division leaders were pre-season favorites or even considered likely to make the postseason at all. Which do you think is most likely to finish the season as a division winner? Are any of them good enough to win the pennant?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think the Mariners and White Sox have a chance to win it, but if you’re asking my pick of the two, I’d say the White Sox. Though – HOMER ALERT – I don’t see how the Red Sox aren’t the favorite right now in the AL.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Red Sox easy, but I think the White Sox have a decent chance. I think the Rangers will come back in the West since they could go get whoever they want with their farm system

9:14	Erik: Odubel Herrera keeps rising up the WAR leaderboards, even as all the experts keep saying, “He’s good, but he’s not THIS good.” So, what do you think he’s true talent WAR would be? His 3.9 WAR last year is starting to look more like his floor than his ceiling.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I think it’s neither his floor nor his ceiling, but if you want me to pick, I’d still vote ceiling. He’s going to be very BABIP reliant. When the hits are falling, he’s going to be on tears like this. Either way, he’s been a huge success story for the Phillies.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I expect teams to start challenging him and his walk rate to drop

9:15	Erik: If you asked the Phillies’ FO privately and off the record why Ryan Howard still had a spot on the roster, what do you think their honest answer would be? They must have some reason other than blind sentimentality, right?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: They really haven’t had a 1B which is way better than him. He doesn’t seem to be impeding anyone’s development.

9:16	Paul Swydan: I think there’s nothing wrong with blind sentimentality. The Phillies are playing well, but most casual fans likely still only know Howard and Ruiz. And if he can get hot into July and the Phillies can flip him for a prospect, then even better.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Also what Jeff said.

9:17

Bartleby: Have been offered Goldy for Sale. My pitching is dominating now, with a good pen, Sale, Bum, Carrasco, Tanaka, and some solid spot starters. I need power. Do you buy Goldy getting going, making a run at being a top 5-10 overall player? Alternatively, I hold onto my aces and shop Tanaka for a lesser bat. 12tm mixed. Thanks guys!

9:18	Paul Swydan: I mean, he has a .420 OBP. The power and average are down a little, but I’m not worried about him.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Having said that, you should try to leverage more out of the deal.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Deleat a bunch of words ….. get Goldy

9:19	hscer: Ryan Zimmerman 2-3 w/HR (#6) so far today. Up to 98 wRC+ for the season and slugging .683 the last two weeks. How concerned are we still?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I suppose I’d feel better if he was making better contact, and if pitchers were respecting him more. He’s down to 54.8% F-Strike%, which I assume is because pitchers aren’t worried about falling behind him anymore.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I think people are hoping for prime Zimmerman and that is not happening. He is a 15-20 HR guy who hits .250.

9:21	mateoloco: Drop Parra for Leonys Martin in 10 team redraft obp league?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think that’s fine, yes.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so. You can afford to churn in a 10 team league

9:22	Jack Conness: I offered someone Jason Heyward for Matt Harvey today – banking on a huge Harvey bounce back. He said no and Harvey imploded yet again. What is Harvey’s issue right now? His velocity is a tick down, but nothing drastic. I still like him and his FIP is great. Solutions?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I think what Eno said last week is probably still true, that ultimately this is just a cold streak, and that he’ll snap back soon.

9:23	Paul Swydan: We just went through this with David Price. Great pitchers aren’t great all the time.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I looked at him in detail for a Rotowire article and found the velo drop can make him really hittable. Also, I have little faith in the Mets D helping him out.

9:25	Paul Swydan: The D behind him is definitely an issue. The Mets have basically built their D around the concept that the starters would be limiting contact.

9:25	Phil: Do I roll with Darvish right away, or give him a couple starts before trusting? We have a weekly start limit, and I don’t need him this week… but between him and Odorizzi, it’s tempting.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Also, his FIP is in the high 3’s which would still be disappointing to Harvey’s owners

9:25	Paul Swydan: If you don’t need him, I think you’re fine to hold off for a week.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t, he will be limited pitches. Not worth this start

9:26	hscer: Best pitcher in 5 years: someone currently in either the Dodgers’ or an NL East organization, or the field?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I’ll still take Dodgers org, because I think it’ll be Kershaw. Smart bet is the field though.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Field

9:27	The Dude of NY: Russell Martin is playing 2B now.

9:27	Paul Swydan: So he is!

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:27	Paul Swydan: Popping that on while we chat.

9:28	Cam: Most likely scenario for an Urias call-up: Start him then shift to the ‘pen, or straight into the ‘pen? They can’t keep him down any longer, surely – at least not while the big league club is scuffling and needs production.

9:28	Paul Swydan: They certainly can keep him down. He’s 19 years old and still has less than 120 IP above A ball.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he goes to the bullpen and may save him for the postseason. Maybe a long reliever

9:29	Paul Swydan: Runner on first for the Yankees, so Martin may have some double play action to contend with.

9:29	Phil: So at least 20 trolls have answered the JBJ poll. That, or 20 Red Sox fans. Though, let’s be honest, that Venn diagram has a lot of overlap.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Hey, I resemble that remark!

9:30	Paul Swydan: Listening to the Yankees broadcast is a great reminder of how Dave O’Brien never shuts up on the Red Sox broadcast.

9:30	Daniel: Hi, in a bit of a bind. 12 team H2H, 5×5. Thought I was set with my pitching staff with Harvey, Archer, and Kluber but it’s May and they’re still struggling. What to do?? I also have Hamels, Nola, Gausman and Karns.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I would set still. If I would look to move anyone it would be Nola and Hamels

9:31	Paul Swydan: Well the good news is that you have good depth. I’m not worried about Kluber, but if you can get a good deal for Harvey or Archer, take it.

9:32	Bautistas jaw: Do the twins even have anything to sell? Glen Perkins?

9:33	Paul Swydan: They could probably find a taker for Ervin Santana. Maybe Trevor Plouffe. Maybe Perkins, if he can show he’s healthy. Otherwise, not much, no.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I was going to say Mauer, but he has two more years on his contract.

9:34	Paul Swydan: And he’s never consent to a trade. He has a full no-trade clause for a reason.

9:34	Paul Swydan: he’d

9:34	Stevo: In a 12 team mixed keeper league, I drafted AJ Reed late and have stashed him since. Other than several stars underperforming, I have no immediate need. Think it will still be worth it to stash?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Yup! He just came off the DL, so the watch is on.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so. You can always try to trade him if you need something else

9:35	Mike: If Yankees are out of it Beltran is traded where and for what?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I don’t know that Beltran is going to have much trade value, sad as that is to type. If he goes anywhere, it will be a “favor” trade to send him to a contender where he can be a pinch hitter/bench bat.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: To an AL team for a little of nothing. Maybe a 45 grade prospect if the other team has to eat the whole contract.

9:37	Steve: Worried about Tulo and Encarnacion turning it around?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Tulo, yes. Encarnacion, no.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said

9:38	Bryan CA: Do the Fodgers end up catching the Giants? If yes, is the Giants love affair with Jake Peavy the reason?

9:39	Paul Swydan: It’ll be one of the reasons, I think. I know Chris Heston’s control is a little off (he’s walked 4 in 2 straight starts in Triple-A) but I’d still prefer him to Peavy at this point.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think the Dodgers will catch them and the reason is that the Dodgers find some pitching

9:40	Paul Swydan: Well, sure, if the Dodgers upgrade more than the Giants. But the Giants usually find a way to make a move, and the Dodgers don’t.

9:40	Paul Swydan: So we’ll see.

9:40	Atlee’s Hammaker: True or false? Despite all the New York, Chicago hype, the team no one wants to play in the postseason is the Giants?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I definitely would rather face the Mets than the Giants. But I’d still probably rather face the Giants than the Cubs.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: False

9:41	Paul Swydan: So, almost true.

9:41	Paul Swydan: In any case, I’m feeling good about that SF prediction right now.

9:41	Macho: Have we already seen the best of Vince Velasquez this year?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Well, he could do a better job limiting homers.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. I think he will struggle over a long season and may even need to be shut down.

9:42	Paul Swydan: But yeah, he probably won’t be too much better than he has been.

9:43	Nolan : Thor + Bryant OR Nola + Goldschmidt ROS?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Thor + Bryant

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:43	The Dude of NY: What idea widely believed by the sabermetric community do you most disagree with?

9:44	Paul Swydan: That’s a great question. I’m not thinking of any off the top of my head.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Well, OK, I hate specialization.

9:44	Paul Swydan: I hate matchup relievers, and I hate the DH.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Luck, I think that hidden injuries play a huge role

9:45	Paul Swydan: I think most of us would prefer to see the universal DH. I do not. I don’t like mid-inning pitching changes. But I don’t know if these are “beliefs” necessarily, so much as they are style preferences.

9:45	Paul Swydan: I’d be interested to hear some of the things you all disagree with.

9:45	DaveV: Newbie here, reading “Big Data Baseball” now, decided to see what is up online and found this site. I have a LOT to learn! Red Sox fan, Boston born and raised

9:46	Paul Swydan: Welcome, Dave V! Might I humbly suggest that you check out our Library/Glossary – http://www.fangraphs.com/library/

9:46	Paul Swydan: Lots of great info there.

9:46	These Guys Are Still Underrated: Rougned Odor and Mookie Betts are soon going to be perennial .290/30HR guys

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Just take it slow and ask questions.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Not only that, but they also excel at boxing and bowling, respectively!

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: And one has free BBQ for life

9:48	APODionysus: Which Red Sox player who’s last name begins with B ends the season with the higher fWAR? Betts? Bradley? Bogarts?.. uuuuhhh Brentz?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Obviously Brentz. I’ll see Bogaerts, but Betts is going to give him a run for his money.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Betts

9:49	DaveV: Ya, I was looking at that = lot of the terms new to me. but GO JBJ! He was always a great fielder and kept getting sent down becuz of poor hitting, he sure has turned that around

9:49	Paul Swydan: For sure.

9:49	Von Schloss: Re: sabermetrics, and there is no way presently to quantify this, but the acceptance that the human/mental element per individual player probably has a lot more to do with day to day and situational performance than we realize.

9:50	Paul Swydan: It’s doubtful there will ever be a way to quantify that.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, but I think this works it way into the stats where a player is distracted every five days or so

9:50	Teal: If the Royals are still in contention come the trade deadline do you see them adding any pieces on the level that they did last year?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: One, I think they may be able to move Dozier for something decent with two other 3B in his way. Maybe Chase Vallot who is climbing prospect rankings.

9:52	Minty: What’re the odds that AJ Reed doesn’t come up before August/September? I’m regretting the stash.

9:52	Paul Swydan: I think he’ll be up in a few weeks. That’s why they moved Gattis back behind the plate.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Going back, I have been looking at E5’s batted ball velocity. Over the past two seasons, it has only be over league average at the end of ’15

9:52	Paul Swydan: In general, a prospect you have to stash is someone who you shouldn’t expect to see before mid-June.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they are pushing him to the Super 2 date. If any prospect stays after then, then be worried

9:54	marc: When is a good time to start stashing Dee Gordon?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I would chance it before the 2 week mark

9:56	Paul Swydan: Maybe right after the trade deadline.

9:56	APODionysus: Speaking of JBJ’s fielding: Is that going to stabilize? Do we expect him to finish the season with the elite defense we expect from him or has something in his play (besides the bat) fundementally changed?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Even elite defenders sometimes have years where they’re only +2 to 3. I don’t think anything has fundamentally changed.

9:57	Teal: Dismissing batter vs pitcher stats entirely is something I can’t completely buy, there’s something psychological there.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I thought his defense was never going to be the problem. Paul?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it’s a problem.

9:57	Paul Swydan: As for Teal’s comment, that’s interesting. I think it does apply in certain situations. But they are hard to come by.

9:58	pat: how productive do you see brantley being over the next three years? will he productive at all this year? will he ever again able to replicate his 2014 and 2015 seasons?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I am worried about his shoulder being a constant issue for a couple of seasons. He needs to get healthy before anything else.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Well, he didn’t really replicate his 2014 season in 2015. And I never expected him to. Brantley is a nice player, but he’s no star, and the fact that the Indians twiddled their thumbs this offseason when they knew he’d miss time is mind boggling to me.