FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/30/17

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

Parker Bridwell: How awesome is my name? If I make it, can you call me Clifford?

Parker Bridwell: (the dude who wrote the Clifford series was Norman Bridwell, if that helps)

Paul Swydan: For the record, I did know this. Also for the record, yes, I approve of this nickname.

Jeff Zimmerman: It’s OK, how did you do in the name bracket challenge?

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Swapped Dylan Bundy (finally) and Jedd Gyorko for Sonny Gray, Jose Ramirez, and a pair of low round draft picks. Feeling good about that, but still having trouble convincing myself that Ramirez is a must start over LeMahieu at second base (OBP league). Talk me into my senses!

Paul Swydan: I don’t dislike the deal at all.

Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on what you need. Now Ramirez does have OF eligibility which I’ve needed in Tout Wars a few times.

Paul Swydan: Their RoS wOBAs are identical – .334 for LeMahieu, .335 for Ramirez. So you can just mix and match depending on matchups/hot streaks, etc.

Joe Blow: What do you see CarGo’s numbers looking like at the end of the season? He’s been terrible so far this year….any hope?

Paul Swydan: One year around this time, I wrote that CarGo was over the hill and the Rockies would never get anything good for him in trade. Then in June he hit like 78 homers. Never lose faith in CarGo.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would be about 10% to 20% lower than his projections.

Los: Am I crazy to trade Mookie for Trout in a H2H league where I know I will make the playoffs. If it makes any difference, I have won 3 times in the last 5 years and finished 2nd the other two times.

Paul Swydan: If you’re that good, why do you need our advice?

Paul Swydan: Seriously though, I think a full season of Mookie probably outweighs 2 months of Trout. But if you only need him for the playoffs…maybe.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would just make sure you can make the playoffs without Mookie.

Paul Swydan: I guess my concern would be that Trout isn’t 100% and the Angels shut him down early because they fall out of playoff contention without him.

Hobbs: Only have Trout in dynasty leagues. Would you even consider selling? Have an offer of Blackmon and Stras for him. Sitting in 1st. Top 4 teams make playoffs.

Jeff Zimmerman: There is that chance

Paul Swydan: No, if you have Trout in a dynasty league, hold on to him. You’re getting trade offers because your league mates think you are stupid. Don’t be stupid.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would, but it would take more than those two. It would have to two other first rounders.

JP: Adam Frazier worth to keep in 12 team H2H league?

Paul Swydan: Would need more info than that, sorry. Specifically, the number of players per team, and if your league uses MI or CI slots, etc.

Jeff Zimmerman: Probably very borderline

Hannah Hochevar: Movies: putting in a vote for some indie fare (especially after this last run of superhero movies has been so bad) – The Bad Batch looks excellent. The Big Sick; Beguiled; and Beatriz at Dinner also. (I promise I like movies whose names don’t begin with B sometimes too.)

Paul Swydan: Fair enough Hannah. I have heard of The Big Sick, but I stuck to movies that everyone would know about.

Paul Swydan: Chris Sale in trouble here. Ducks on the pond for Abreu.

Hannah Hochevar: Hot take on Sam Travis? Obviously haven’t seen much yet, but I know there’s a Sox fan among you…

Paul Swydan: No hot takes yet. He made a nice defensive play yesterday, but it was mostly positioning.

Lenny: Care to guess what the sale price of the Marlins will be? Greater or lesser than 1 billion dollars?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’ll be underwhelming …. not good enough for the Red Sox fans.

Paul Swydan: Oh, I think it’ll be more than $1 billion.

Jeff Zimmerman: Really no idea

Paul Swydan: The only reason it wouldn’t is because unlike art dealers, businesspeople don’t want to deal with Loria.

Cw : Was offered Sale and Stanton for Godley, Cueto and Trout. good trade?

Jeff Zimmerman: Fairly even in a redraft league.

Paul Swydan: The only way I’d take this is if it’s a redraft league. Again, I wouldn’t trade Trout in a dynasty league. Especially if it’s for a guy whose always hurt like Stanton.

Gaseous Clay: It seems like Nomar Mazara is starting to go to opposite field a bit more while hitting more fly balls. Making some good progress?

Paul Swydan: Yeah, I like what I see so far. Maybe he won’t be a Nori Aoki clone after all.

Jeff Zimmerman: Give him time.

Oddball Herrera: Man, rough slate for June. I’m saving my money for The Dark Tower in August, though I don’t have a lot of faith that Hollywood can do that story justice

Paul Swydan: I don’t either, but I’m still going to go. Also, I think you’re being hard on the June slate. I am quite excited for both Wonder Woman, Baby Driver and All Eyez on Me.

Jeff Zimmerman: Summer movies are just getting worse and worse

Paul Swydan: No they’re not you killjoy.

Jack: Dave wrote an excellent article on Sano’s defense back in March. Will the new Statcast data available be able to bridge the gap between the “eye-test” and defensive statistics for guys like Hosmer and Markakis? Thanks.

Paul Swydan: I think so, but we’ll see. Statcast is but a tool. Teams still have to employ open-minded managers and coaches who are willing to listen to data.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think StatCast will and it will side with Metrics. Hosmer is just a horrible defender. Absolute zero range. Remember, the Royals put Morales over Hosmer in the OF last year.

Big Tuna: Would you trade Yelich for Trout if you’re in contention?

Paul Swydan: Yeah, Yelich is having a middling enough season that you won’t miss him.

Jeff Zimmerman: It’s close in redraft. Here is a webistie for some comps: https://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/playertrades?type=player&p…

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: How early is too early to trade a bundle

Paul Swydan: We’re past the “too early” portion of the season IMO.

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: How early is too early to trade a bundle of prospects for some known/proven vets when you’re a top team? Flags fly forever and I should get what I can when I can, right?

Paul Swydan: sorry, there’s the full question

Paul Swydan: same answer

Jeff Zimmerman: Do it now. Try to be the first, trading is easier before everyone has sold off.

altitutde: 5×5 Keeper, rebuilding. Trade Blackmon for Benintendi? or how much more can I ask for?

Paul Swydan: I think you can ask for more than Benintendi, for sure, esp during his slump right now.

Jeff Zimmerman: That seems fine. Really depends on how other teams value prospects

Daniel: I am letting these voting results guide my viewing choices……..

Paul Swydan: Enjoy Wonder Woman!!!

Jim Lonborg: I feel like even without Pedroia the Sox are better off with Rutledge and Marrero than Sandoval–good field no hit beats bad field no hit. I guess this is more of a comment than a question.

Paul Swydan: Rutledge is also a crappy fielder.

Jeff Zimmerman: I see a trade in the future

David: What would be your closet entrance music? Mine would be Crazy Train.

Paul Swydan: I think he means closer, not closet. In any case, my entrance/at-bat song would be “Down With the King” by Run DMC.

Jeff Zimmerman: Flight of the Valkyries.

Boooo-er: Bauer’s peripherals indicate that he’s better than his results, but I’m watching him unimpress yet again. Is there still top-40 (even 20?!?!) potential here, or do you think we’re seeing all he’s capable of: nice Ks, iffy command, WHIPped? A streamer? I’ve clung to him for years and can’t seem to quit.

Paul Swydan: No. Drop him. He’s not as smart as he thinks he is, and his stuff isn’t good enough to compensate.

Paul Swydan: Or, trade him if you can find a sucker.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is streamable depending on league type. Get the K’s and Wins (hopefully)

Big Tuna: Best June movie will absolutely be The House. How can you bet against Poehler/Ferrell?

Paul Swydan: Because I saw the trailer? Look, I love Amy Poehler, and have loved Will Ferrell, but that movie looks like a rental at best. Definitely not theater-worthy.

Jeff Zimmerman: Ferrell’s stuff is starting to get old

Paul Swydan: Yup.

Gern Cranium: keep forever, no salaries dynasty rank-em….Conforto, Judge, Sano, Bellinger.

Paul Swydan: Sano, Judge, Conforto, Bellinger. Ask me again in a week and I might have a different answer. I like all four. I put Sano first based on him being a 3B.

Jeff Zimmerman: Sano, Bellinger, Conforto, Judge. All are close and not sure. I am worried Judge will age badly.

Jim Lonborg: Yeah, I’m still feeling like Marrero is a better option than Sandoval. . .

Paul Swydan: But Marrero needs to play 2B right now. Also, you’re only saying that because Marrero jjjuuuuuuuuuuuuuust barely squeaked out a homer just now.

Jeff Zimmerman: Better than Sandoval …. pretty low bar to set.

John: Redraft AL only – I was offered Adam Jones for Trout. What do you think?

Paul Swydan: NOPE. Jones has been bad lately, and may be hurt.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, aim a little higher

Enlightening Round: What do you make of Grichuk being sent all the way down to A ball?

Paul Swydan: First, I love that name – Enlightening Round.

Jeff Zimmerman: He needed to get sent somewhere and heard there was a certain coach the team wanted him to work with. Level doesn’t matter to me

Paul Swydan: Yeah, it seems like they put some thought into it. Seems fine, as long as his ego survives.

ChocChipMookie: Toronto looks like the WC team they were built to be, were we too swift to write them off or are they too far back in a super deep AL East?

Paul Swydan: They were written off a *little* fast, but they still really do have to play exceptionally well and/or have the rest of the division play pretty crappy for them to get back into it.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think they could get a wild card. Also, they play the AL East a ton to make up ground.

Paul Swydan: The one thing working in their favor is that both Wild Cards may come out of the AL East.

Karl: What would Joey Votto cost the Yankees in prospects and dollars? (assumming Reds pay something of contract)

Paul Swydan: Doesn’t matter because Votto has a no-trade clause and he’s not waving it. He has made that abundantly clear.

Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said

Paul Swydan: Going back to the Blue Jays question, they still have the 3rd highest WC odds – http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=wc&date=current

Nick: Sam Travis went yard off my team in high school playoffs. This means he is probably a future all-star

Paul Swydan: Speaking of Sam Travis, he just muffed a single into a triple. They gave the error to Bogaerts, but Travis should have just come off the bag and caught it.

Jeff Zimmerman: Betting reasoning than what Murray Chass has been using.

Jim Lonborg: Can I change my vote for best pitching matchup?

Paul Swydan: I know, right? Sale v Quintana landed with a thud.

hscer: Killjoys are often correct.

Paul Swydan: Oh you.

Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks

Smiley: chariots of fire by vangelis

Paul Swydan: going old school

Jeff Zimmerman: I like it

Phil Sheridan: Is Quintana hurt? How do you explain this season for him?

Paul Swydan: He’s had a few bad starts, and a bunch of good ones. I think he’s probably fine.

Jeff Zimmerman: Everything seems inline but his ERA.

Rick Hahn: Q got tattooed again tonight. Does this totally crush his mid-year trade value?

Paul Swydan: If teams are scared off because Deven Marrero lucked into a couple of homers against them, they probably need new talent evaluators.

Jeff Zimmerman: No, but he wasn’t going to bring back too much talent anyway

Pie: Berrios curveball has some filthy movement

Paul Swydan: This has been a breaking news bulletin.

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s got it rolling. The Twins are starting to get nice things.

Rasta: H2H 5×5, what are your thoughts on starting Kershaw and 7 relievers to try to win saves & ratios? Getting too cute or legit strategy if you only need 18 IP each week?

Paul Swydan: It’s definitely cute. I would be a little worried that I wouldn’t hit the 18 IP in the weeks that Kershaw only starts once.

Paul Swydan: In weeks where he starts twice, I think it’s probably a good strategy, you just don’t leave yourself much margin for error.

Jeff Zimmerman: You may want a second pitcher or two.

ChocChipMookie: Could the Yankees trade Refsnyder to Royals for a few lottery tix? His spot on the 25/40 man looks less good w/austin and bird coming back

Paul Swydan: I doubt Refsnyder would bring back more than one lottery ticket, if he brought back that at all.

Jeff Zimmerman: The Royals have a bunch of 0-1 WAR players anyway. No reason to add another.

munenori kawasaki: trout, freeman, cespedes, turner, thor all on my dl, now im losing harper for a while, i quit. I guess the bright side is I just got price back.

Paul Swydan: Oof. That stings. I also have a friend who has Harper and Trout in on the same team.

Jeff Zimmerman: It is a horrible year …. and what Paul asked on Trout and Harper?

Steve: Who is your favorite pitcher to watch?

Paul Swydan: All-time: Pedro

Paul Swydan: Currently: Anyone not named Matt Barnes

Paul Swydan: Kershaw, Jon Gray, come to mind.

Jeff Zimmerman: My daughter but she can be pretty wild

Paul Swydan: 🙂 🙂 🙂

Steve: What should we expect out of Marte once he returns?

Paul Swydan: I would expect him to be rusty for a week or two.

Jeff Zimmerman: More of the same

Smiley: Any one play in a league where each person picks two players week (can’t pick the same player twice in a season)? Person with the most H, RBI, R, and BB wins. Looking for a good tracking and projection website.

Paul Swydan: No, but that sounds like fun.

Jeff Zimmerman: No … Derek Carty’s system may work (and may not).

Paul Swydan: Don’t know about the tracking, but here at FanGraphs we have excellent projections, and you can build your own custom teams to track projections of specific players. http://www.fangraphs.com/myteam.aspx

Murdoc: Would you rather have Matt Barnes or Joe Kelly?

Jeff Zimmerman: Do you hate us?

Paul Swydan: Kelly. The tired meme of Kelly having good stuff is still true.

Paul Swydan: But, seriously, that’s like choosing between getting your eyes poked or getting slapped in the face. They both hurt.

Ryan: Robbie Ray!

Jeff Zimmerman: If he throws strikes, he can be good. I’m all in

Paul Swydan: Complete game 4-hitters with no walks and 10 Ks are definitely exciting.

Guest: 12 team standard 5 x 5 roto. I’m in first, but have Trout, Pollock, and Haniger on the DL. My healthy OF is Ozuna, Duvall, Altherr, D. Santana, and Souza. Would you trade Trout? What would you target? Is asking for Trea Turner too much?

Paul Swydan: Assuming that D Santana is Domingo, you might be fine. A little light on the batting average, but otherwise, I’ve seen worse outfields. If it’s redraft, I think Turner is a decent target.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think Turner is fine.

Jeff Zimmerman: Go for it

Smiley: Why are baseball play by play commentators still obsessed with basic out dated stats like RBIs?

Jeff Zimmerman: They need to talk to the people watching which are males over the age of 50

Paul Swydan: Broadcasters play to the crowd. Or, more apt, they play to what their producers think the crowd will want to hear. There’s a very Lowest Common Denominator strategy to sports broadcasting, which makes learning about new things very difficult.

Paul Swydan: Speaking of being difficult, we’re going to be difficult and call it a night right at 10 tonight. Sorry! Thanks for hanging out, as always.

Jeff Zimmerman: Bye