FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/13/16

by Paul Swydan

September 13, 2016

9:08	Paul Swydan: Sorry!

9:08	Paul Swydan: Let’s get started.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I’ll stay late.

9:08	Patrick: Do the Red Sox have enough pitching to do well in the postseason if they make it? Price-Porcello-Pomeranz-Rodriguez doesn’t sound bad at all.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think it’s competitive, but nights like tonight give me pause.

9:10	Patrick: Despite adding Kimbrel and Carson Smith last offseason, will Dave Dombrowski target more bullpen arms in trades this offseason?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Hopefully just in free agency, but probably.

9:11	Patrick: Rich Hill – what would be his AAV be in FA if you were a GM?

9:11	Paul Swydan: $15 or $16 m

9:11	Bill: Paul, I’m no Orioles Fan, but you have to wonder what Duquette was thinking when he traded for Wade Miley. I mean, they could have just recalled Ariel Miranda and save that money to spend it on a better starter. Love to get your take on it.

9:14	Paul Swydan: He has a good history. You’re not expecting him to fall apart like that.

9:14

Cam: Is now the time to move Urias to the bullpen? He’s probably been kept in the rotation longer than planned purely out\ of necessity. But 4 games up in the division, 80 innings last year, and up to 113 already this season..conventional wisdom states he probably needs to move soon if he’s going to have any bullets for the playoffs.

9:15	Paul Swydan: OK, sorry, was on the phone.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, on Urias. It seems to me that he is one of their four best starters, and I want my four best starters going in the postseason.

9:16	Paul Swydan: But if they’re not going to put him in the rotation, then yes, let’s get him into the rhythm of the bullpen before the season ends so he’s at least a little familiar with it.

9:16	VanExelent: How surprised would you be if Rich Hill got offered something like 4 years/$70 million this offseason?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I would be surprised on the years. Not the AAV.

9:16	Minty: Some of us are sadly looking to stash guys for next yr. What do you think of ’17/18 Moncada? He won’t be Trout, but will he be at 35%+ k rate?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I would definitely stash Moncada. There’s no way Travis Shaw makes it through another full season as a starter if he keeps hitting the way he’s hitting – .206 batting average in the second half. That’s not good.

9:17	Tximista: Do u ever bet baseballgames?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Never.

9:18	Jon: Fox Sports recently ran an article saying the Dodgers are the team the Cubs should fear most. But the Cubs will likely not face the Dodgers in the NLDS. Who should Cubs fans fear most in a 5 game series?

9:18	Paul Swydan: If not LA, probably Washington. That is, if Strasburg plays. If not, then probably San Fran, just because San Fran finds a way.

9:19

Jim Lonborg: Premature question: does this sound about right for a Red Sox playoff roster: Price, Porcello, Eddie, Pom, Kimbrel, Ziegler, Koji, Ross, Barnes, Kelly, Abad, Buchholz, Leon, Hanigan, Ortiz, Hanley, Pedroia, XB, Shaw, Hill, Mookie, JBJ, Young, Benintendi, Holt? In 2013 Farrell used 11 pitchers and an extra pinch-runner (Quintin Berry), but it’s hard to imagine Moncada being added for that purpose if he’s still looking like a guaranteed strikeout. Not sure about Kelly vs. Taz, and wondering if Wright would be preferable to Clay as a long man if mostly healthy.

9:20	Paul Swydan: That’s pretty much it, though I took Barnes off of the roster I did at Boston dot com last week. Looks like Wright won’t be ready to go, so Clay it is. I put Moncada there just in case Farrell comes to his senses and stops playing Hill and Shaw.

9:20	bonk 2.0: Will the pirates put Wade LeBlanc on the active roster, now that they acquired him from the mariners?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I don’t know for what other purpose they would have acquired him!

9:21	joseph: Predictions for The Amazing Race: Canada finale tonight? Or, if you start after it ended, thoughts?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I guess I need to work harder on my #brand. For the record, Joseph, the only reality shows I watch are sporting events.

9:22	tz: Someone has to do a “53 Things About A 53 Second Finnish Baseball Video” based upon this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8ksgs8gqCM

9:22	Paul Swydan: Noted!

9:22	Jim Lonborg: Oh look, it’s bad Pomeranz. I remember him.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Can’t walk Orioles hitters.

9:22	Roger: Suppose Votto actually waives his NTC and the Reds move him to Toronto: what could they expect in return?

9:22	Paul Swydan: He’s not waiving it, so you can forget about that.

9:23	Trent: The Phillies have relatively few dollars committed to next year, especially compared to their payrolls of a few years ago. Do you think they make any noise in free agency, or do they perhaps wait another year before trying to legitimately compete?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I would think it’s more for 2018-19 when Harper-Fernandez-those guys come onto the market.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Philly will be a real threat by then. Kind of similar to how the Celtics were this offseason. Maybe they don’t get Harper/Durant, but they’ll get a good prize, and there are a lot of them to be had in that class.

9:24

Ryan: People talk about the Blue Jays’ window closing, but the main players they’ll lose to free agency this off-season are Bautista, Dickey, and Encarnacion. The last of those three is obviously a substantial loss, but the other two have contributed virtually nothing this year. Is there any reason to think the Jays can’t replace Encarnacion and challenge for the AL East again next year?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Well, replacing him is no easy task, but I think beyond replacing those three guys, there is also the matter of vets like Martin and Tulowitzki being a year further from their primes. In other words, it’s not JUST replacing those three guys.

9:25	Roger: Padres, White Sox, Diamondbacks: which of these erstwhile contenders reaches the post-season first?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I’ll say White Sox, but I don’t feel super confident about it.

9:25	Trent: If the season ended tonight, who would be your pick to win the WS?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Dodgers? I don’t think it’ll be the Cubs.

9:25	Roger: Is Brian Dozier in the top 50 in trade value now? Seems like the Twins have a great opportunity to sell high on a quality player under control for 2 years for a total of 15 million.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Maybe toward the bottom. He’s also 30 next year, and this is pretty clearly going to be his best season ever.

9:26	Ryan: The Angels have a lot of salary coming off the books this year, but their farm system remains barren. Can they rebuild themselves without trading Mike Trout?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Not easily. They need to take a bunch of gambles and hit on a lot of them, similar to how the Brewers did. Easier said than done.

9:27	EccentricChemist: If the Angels could go back in time and change one…maybe two decisions, what would they be so they wouldn’t be as awful as they are now? (One has to be Hamilton contract right?)

9:27	Paul Swydan: You would absolutely think one would have to be the Hamilton contract, and the other would almost certainly be the Pujols contract.

9:27	Mattingly’s Sideburns: Why is Ryan Hanigan still a thing?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Because ole Johnny Farrell loves him some veterans. Even veterans who allow Baltimore to steal their 17th base of the season.

9:28	Raj: We used to think the Royals always find a way too….

9:28	Paul Swydan: No, I’ve never thought that. The Royals got to play Terry Collins in the World Series. Big difference between that and the good managing Bruce Bochy has exhibited time and again.

9:29

Jim Lonborg: All-time leaders in fWAR for African-American pitchers: Gibson (82.6), Jenkins (80.5), Sabathia (62.9), Gooden (56.7), Blue (49.2), Price (36.6), Newcombe (35.9), Richard (32.4), Downing (28.5), Stewart (27.4), L. Smith (26.6), S. Jones (24.1). Where on that list do you think Price will end up? Any young pitchers you can think of likely to join it?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Between Gooden and Sabathia would seem to be most likely. I don’t think he gets all the way to Jenkins. He could clear Sabathia, but then Sabathia’s number is still a moving target.

9:30	Kevin: do you think the Oakland A’s read The Fringe Five?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I like to think that all the front offices read the Fringe Five, if for nothing else than the entertainment value of reading Carson’s words.

9:30	Phantom of the Chakras: Why do you (not you personally, but you the manager of the A’s) let Jh. Cotton pitch the 6th when he’s given you a solid 5 and is at 90 pitches?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Why is 90 pitches now the limit? Let the kid go out and see if he can give you six. I have no problem with that.

9:31	Grace : Hi

9:31	Paul Swydan: Hi Grace! Are you still under fire?

9:31	Grace : Do you think the Tigers will snag a wild card spot?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Oh, I see, there’s the question. I don’t, sorry. I think both of the Wild Cards will come from the AL East. I am thinking right now it’ll be Toronto and New York, but you never know.

9:32	Mattingly’s Sideburns: Travis Shaw’s throw just hit my house.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yeah but did it hit your sideburns?

9:33	Grace : Under fire, sir?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Sorry, I guess I’m dating myself with that reference. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106017/

9:33	Jo-Jo Reyes: Freddie Freemannnnnnnnnn home run number 30!

9:34	Paul Swydan: Have a second half, Freddie!

9:34	Jim Lonborg: Did the Red Sox screw up with Moncada? I know FGers were generally in favor of the call-up.

9:34

Paul Swydan: I think they have, yes. As Tim Britton mentioned to me the other day, they anointed him too quickly, and then cut bait on him too quickly. Newsflash – striking out nine times in a row is incredibly rare even for the worst hitters. Moncada isn’t going to strike out every plate appearance.

9:35	Paul Swydan: I know, take a minute to digest that shocking and breaking news.

9:35	Emmett: What is making Addison Reed so dominant? His fastball is nothing overpowering, yet he gets strikeouts on it. Is it a delivery thing? or something else (I haven’t done much reading into his stats, this is based on watching him)

9:37	Paul Swydan: I haven’t watched him much myself, but my guess would be the movement he is getting on that pitch in contrast with his other pitches.

9:37	Stu: Is there reason to believe a slugging 1b type with no defensive/base running value would be more valuable on a team filled with speedy defense guys?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Huh.

9:38	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. Maybe the second baseman, so he can cover the ground that the 1B doesn’t, but in general, if you’re the one slugger on a team of speedy non-sluggers, it would probably be difficult to be pinch-run for.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Good question though, I like it.

9:39	EccentricChemist: We always talk about what teams will be better next year, but any teams that will be demonstrably worse?

9:40

Paul Swydan: Well, the Cubs have nowhere to go but down, though I don’t think they’ll be demonstrably worse. I would think the O’s are due for an off-year as their lack of starting pitching finally catches up to them. If Strasburg needs TJ again, that could take a big, wet bite out of the Nationals’ chances. Also I don’t think Daniel Murphy will be Ryne Sandberg again.

9:41	Rahul: Who takes the NL Wild Cards this year?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Definitely San Fran, and then I think probably the Cardinals find a way to weasel past the Mets for the final spot.

9:42	Paul Swydan: It’s funny though. A month or so ago, the AL Wild Card race looked to be boring and the NL race exciting, and now it’s just the opposite. At least in terms of total teams in the running. Miami and Pittsburgh fell off hard.

9:42	Andrew: Why does Xander pop the ball up so much? Is that a fixable trait? I’m kind of not crazy about his swing.

9:44

Paul Swydan: For reference, Bogaerts is second in the game in IFFB%. Also for reference, if you look at his stats, this sort of cropped up in his rookie season, and then he tamped it down the last two years. I would imagine it’s something mechanical that they can fix, since they have one time before.

9:44	Paul Swydan: But I’m with you. It’s frustrating.

9:45	EccentricChemist: Is there any way a team can still buy their way to a championship without having a farm system…or do older vets that produce so little just cost too much for it to be realistic?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I think the latter is more true than the former.

9:46

Anal Hershiser: Gonna fall just short of winning and have 8 keepers in their prime (posey, altuve, Villar, Cespedes, Bum, Scherzer, Arrieta, Kluber), need 2 more- do I roll the dice on old dudes (votto and murphy) or look for possible superstar young keepers (franco and rodgers) or some combo of the 2?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I’d have no problem rolling with Votto. Might want to stick with Rodgers for the other pick. He might not make the majors next year, but he might get high enough in the minors to become a really, really valuable trade chip for you.

9:47	Harry Caray’s Ghost: Vote Bryant/Hendricks 2016. A ballot you can believe in.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Indeed, Harry Caray’s Ghost. Indeed.

9:48	KVN: who’s the better defensive shortstop? Seager or Russell

9:48	Paul Swydan: I’m inclined to say Russell. I’m not sure it matters. They’re both really good and should be fixtures on their teams for years to come.

9:49	Ron: Re: Blue Jays: Guys like Tulo and Martin are getting further from their prime, but aren’t guys like Stroman, Sanchez, and Tarvis moving into their prime? Seems like should more or less even out.

9:49	Paul Swydan: It rarely works out like that. Also, aging curves don’t always line up with the notion of age-27 being the peak of someone’s prime. Sometimes it’s much sooner than that.

9:49	Justin: Fair enough. Any particular reason why you think it won’t be the Cubs, other than that every team has a far <50% chance of winning the whole thing?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Joe Maddon is almost always too cute by half. Like that time he tried to play a bowling ball named Kyle Schwarber in the outfield, for instance.

9:51	Paul Swydan: In other words, the Cubs are so good that all Maddon has to do is fill out his lineup card and get out of the way, but I’m not sure he is capable of staying out of the way.

9:51	Grace : Who is your favorite current MLB player?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Mookie or Xander.

9:51

Kevin: 12 team dynasty with custom scoring (add BB, OBP, SLUG and K/BB, QS, HLD to 5×5) keep everyone. I am in the playoffs and have been facing a major roster crunch. I’ve got DeGrom hurt, Stanton and Sano d2d on the bench, and Benintendi activated from DL. I’ve also got Dansby Swanson on the wire inching closer to his AB limit. Rosters have 2 Cs, a MI, CI, and 5 OFers plus conventional positions. on the pitching side its just 9 P spots, 6 of whom are relievers, then i’ve got 8 Starters to cycle through the other 3 spots when they start (including DeGrom)
My issue is I could probably use another starter, plus I may need to add Swanson, plus i want to activate Benintendi. So that is 2, maybe 3 spots needed. Would you drop a reliever or two (relievers are Giles, AMiller, Familia, Neris, Barraclough, WDavis) or an OFer (5 Starters are Pederson, Jankowski, Betts, DSantana, Kepler, plus Puig as Util) or maybe my second catcher (Cervelli).

9:51	Paul Swydan: LONG QUESTION ALERT!

9:53	Paul Swydan: It’s always better to drop the relievers. I’d drop the ones with the least brand name recognition, like Neris or Barraclough. Or Davis, if you think he’s fragile now.

9:53	Trent: What do the As do this off-season? Or is it just hopeless trying to predict Billy Beane at this point?

9:54	Paul Swydan: It is definitely hopeless trying to predict Beane, but it also feels sort of hopeless trying to maneuver the A’s back to contention. If I was them, I’d probably just stay away from free agency and gear up to spend as much money as they can on international prospects.

9:54	Cybo: What kind of Votto trade can you envision happening this off-season?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I can’t envision a Votto trade happening this offseason.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Probably not enough. I’m not sure Schwarber has a ton of value, and Hendricks even after this season probably isn’t a building block the way Russell is.

9:55	Paul Swydan: And Heyward is sort of an open question mark.

9:55	Joseph: Back to the Angels rebuild: Trout for Russell, Schwarber, Hendricks, and Heyward (+ 50MM to make Heyward less of an albatross). Not enough to get it done?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Oops. Sorry, I did the answer before I posted the question. My bad!

9:56	Grace : This is the first time I’ve stopped in on your chat- do you do this every week?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Yes, usually with Jeff Zimmerman, though he is off this week.

9:56	Tom: Gary Sanchez for AL ROY and Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young. And playing time be damned!

9:57	Paul Swydan: Not sure that’s the hill you want to die on Tom, but I admire your stance.

9:57	Tom: Yasmany Tomas has been an above-average hitter this year; could he be traded to an AL team to DH, despite his contract?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I think he could be, but if the Dbacks don’t eat a bunch of that contract they won’t get much in return for him.

9:58	Paul Swydan: If they do clean slate in the front office, I’d imagine trading Tomas is something the new regime might explore.

9:58	Jim Lonborg: What’s your expectation for Wright next year? Or is that always a pointless question about a knuckleballer?