FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Performs an Autopsy
November 4, 2015
Episode 606
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he performs an autopsy on the World Series, metaphorically speaking.
This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min play time.)
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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
The Royals had two players with 13 game postseason hitting streaks (Escobar and Cain), and Escobar went on to complete the longest hitting streak in a single postseason in MLB history. Eric Hosmer has put up so many RBIs in the last two postseasons that his production puts him in the company of Lou Gehrig — Lou Gehrig! Bonkers late-inning run generation consistent over all three series, relief pitching that was nails over all three series, a team whose defending is borderline historic, more postseason comebacks from two runs down than any team in history, the first complete game from an AL pitcher in the WS in decades, among the most complete nine batter lineups in recent memory, progressively more dominant series wins as the postseason progressed, postseason success consistent with their regular season success, and even postseason success consistent with the team’s postseason performance — in kind and magnitude — from the year before…
And you’re comparing it to half court shots.
Science!
The point is any team winning is a half court shot. There is enough parity in the major sports that even the very best teams are what 4:1 at the start of the year. There was little to no reason to think the Royals odds were anywhere near that this year.
Its very easy to come up with a just-so story after you know the results, but if you are trying to predict what is going to happen it is much much harder, and the “big lesson” everyone takes from each year is often subsequently shown to be meaningless.
The Royals did great. Yay!