FanGraphs Chat – 3/19/14

Dave Cameron: It’s both the first day of the Positional Power Rankings series and the last chat before MLB games that count are played. We can chat about the PPRs, the Australia games, or anything else (non-fantasy related) that piques your interest.

Comment From ACC
Any chance that Baez starts the year in the bigs???

Dave Cameron: I would guess virtually none. There’s no reason for the Cubs to give up a year of service time by letting him accrue a full season.

Comment From Lily
What is your feeling on Carlos Martinez … does he get a shot in rotation out of spring training and what is his ceiling??

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. I think he’s a reliever both now and in the future.

Comment From fivetoolmike
Where should MLB put their next “opening series” after Australia?

Dave Cameron: The US?

Dave Cameron: Novel concept, I know.

Comment From ljc
These new TV deals seem to be a boon for teams and MLB in general. Is there any danger that these deals are too optimistic, and may lead to some sort of MLB TV deal bubble that ends up bursting and hurting the game? Should we be at all cautious or concerned with these new deals, or just enjoy the growth?

Dave Cameron: I think MLBAM has done a good job of creating a safety net for the league so that if these TV networks can’t live up to their contracts, the league could simply take over direct sales of their product through MLB.tv. And they’d make a killing.

Comment From Lily
Do you think the super 2 date gets changed and done away with anytime soon… it really is counter productive.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if Super Two ended up being the thing players give up to get rid of the qualifying offer.

Comment From ljc
What is Liberty’s current TDPW (toys destroyed per week)?

Dave Cameron: Well, she just brought in a tennis ball from the outside an hour ago and proceeded to rip the cover off entirely.

Comment From Sam
Did you fill out a bracket Dave?

Dave Cameron: No, I enjoy the tournament more if I’m not rooting for one specific outcome in every game.

Comment From Sam
How much do you believe in the new pitch framing info? And how much do you think it will affect WAR for catchers?

Dave Cameron: I don’t believe in the spread that is suggested by the current metrics. I think it’s probably something like half of that range. And yes, it will eventually go into catcher WAR, but it’s not quite so simple as just adding in framing, since you’d have to also then subtract it from the pitcher’s side of the ledger. And that opens up a can of worms.

Comment From Anon21
How much “extra credit” above and beyond the positional adjustment built into WAR would you give full-time catchers when considering them for the Hall of Fame, given the built-in playing time limitations of the position?

Dave Cameron: I think you just need a different baseline for WAR for HOF catchers than other positions. If +60 is the 50/50 point for all other position players, maybe it should be +40 or +45 for catchers or something.

Comment From Andy
During the season, how do you choose which game to watch at a given time? Do you look at pitching matchups? Do you monitor the scores in real time and switch to a more interesting game?

Dave Cameron: Pitching match-up is the primary determining factor. I’ll generally jump around based more on who’s pitching than on score.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Hello Dave, Nice write up on the PPR’s. Is Posey’s bat so much more important than his catching/defensive skills that the Giants would move him to first? I understand replacement players must be included in the equation but it seems his bat plays better at catcher than first. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: It’s more a question of longevity. If you think he’s a 15 year 1B or a 10 year C, then you’re probably better off with him at 1B.

Comment From _David_
You seem to talk to Carson frequently about people “dying in a fire.” Is this some kind of fixation you have?

Dave Cameron: It’s a running joke. I made some kind of reference to it a few years ago and now it’s just something I use to make him laugh.

Comment From Guest
You mentioned the Phillies in Fangraphs+ as having fire sale potential. What about the Blue Jays? It would seem they have more pieces to rebuild on the fly rather than start from the ground up.

Dave Cameron: Unlike the Phillies, the Blue Jays shouldn’t suck this year.

Comment From Jack
All the PPR’s coming out today or just Catchers?

Dave Cameron: C/1B today.

Comment From Trouble in Texas
What kind of move (if any) do you think the Rangers will make to fix their rotation before the season starts?

Dave Cameron: Saunders and Hanson are good enough short term stopgaps.

Comment From Logan Morrison
What are your thoughts on me as a baseball player?

Dave Cameron: You’re not very good.

Comment From Sean C
Does Randall Delgado have a shot at the #5 starter spot in Arizona, with Corbin out? Most of what I have seen has him going to the pen with Collmenter or even Bradley potentially getting the job.

Dave Cameron: Seems that they don’t really want to give him a rotation spot.

Comment From Marcus A.
Is Chone Figgins really on a big league roster?

Dave Cameron: The most expensive big league roster.

Comment From makechatnotwork
I don’t follow this kind of thing that closely, but with the M’s/A’s series in Japan 2 years ago, and now with the Australian series, what is MLB angling to do? Is there something bigger behind this – more regular series overseas like the NFL is doing? Wouldn’t it be easier and more productive to do this in Latin America?

Dave Cameron: Latin Americans already love baseball. They’re trying to expand the game’s reach.

Comment From _David_
If a team somehow cracks the code of pitcher injuries and figures out how to and prevent them, how ethical do you think it is to withhold this knowledge from everyone else, for at least a long time?

Dave Cameron: Any team that “figured out” how to prevent pitcher injuries wouldn’t be able to keep that secret for long. There is just too much organizational turnover for that to stay within one team forever.

Comment From Marcus A.
Do you think having the Depth Charts displayed lessens the impact of the PPR? I still love the write-ups, but it certainly results in less surprise with the rankings.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, we talked about that, but not everyone looks at the depth charts pages regularly, and people still enjoy the write-ups. If people didn’t respond to these posts, we wouldn’t do them.

Comment From Bruce
How likely is it that Rollins gets traded? Where to?

Dave Cameron: I’d say pretty likely, but not until mid-season. I think he eventually gets benched for Galvis and that will convince him to waive his no-trade.

Comment From _David_
As strike zones get closer to the rule book because of accurate measuring systems, will plate discipline and walks become even more valuable a skill for a hitter, compared to contact and power?

Dave Cameron: MLB can basically tell the umpires to call any zone that they want. If the game becomes too BB/K heavy, then they’ll just make the zone smaller.

Comment From Aaron
I’m curious about the derivation of the 20-80 scouting scale. I know any scale would be arbitrary, but why did this one come to be the dominate one among MLB scouts?

Dave Cameron: It’s supposedly based on the six sigma model, where each 10 points is equal to one standard deviation.

Comment From Z
Any optimism for Mike Olt? Seems like the Cubs should be playing him a lot to see what kind of asset they’ve got before Bryant takes over for good.

Dave Cameron: I like the opposite field power, but the contact rates may never allow the power to play.

Comment From alex
I asked Jeff this yesterday. Which player in the game you paying the most to watch? Not necessarily the best in the game, but most entertaining for you to watch.

Dave Cameron: Maybe Yordano Ventura until his arm falls off.

Comment From Sean
How do you calculate park factors for 2 games in a stadium that’s never been played before?

Dave Cameron: We don’t even try 

Comment From Tom
Would you project a WAR above 2.0 for Yordano Ventura now that he’s officially been slotted into the Royals’ rotation?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. He threw hard last year and wasn’t that great in the big leagues.

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Ross Detwiler to the bullpen and who gets the 5th spot: Jordan or Roark?

Dave Cameron: Right move. I’ll guess Jordan.

Comment From SK
Were you surprised that Gomes and the Indians beat out Yadi and the Cards for 2nd spot? What statistical confidence should we have in that ranking?

Dave Cameron: It wasn’t just Gomes; Santana is also projected to get a decent amount of ABs behind the plate, and his bat is very good for a C. His defensive ranking is probably too high, though, which inflates their overall value.

Comment From Jays Fan #2
The Toronto media has been all over Alex Anthopoulos for not landing one of the big-name free agent pitchers over the offseason. Realistically, they could have potentially signed Ubaldo or Ervin, but both were fairly likely to get annihilated pitching out of the Rogers Centre. Plus, I’m not sure that I wouldn’t rather go into the season with Hutchison over either of those guys, especially since he could be a pretty valuable component of the Jays’ future. So is the criticism truly justified?

Dave Cameron: Yes. You’ve overrating the effect of the park factor in Toronto. Get good pitchers and don’t worry about the park so much.

Comment From _David_
If a team did have a computer calculating up to the second win probabilities for a range of in game moves, what kind of communication is allowed with the dugout?

Dave Cameron: No computers or gadgets are allowed. They could have a guy doing that in the clubhouse, but they’d have to have someone relaying that info to the manager.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
If you had to guess, is Posey the Giants’ primary catcher in 2016? Or is first base his likely spot?

Dave Cameron: I think he might be 50/50 by then.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
__% chance Samardzija is dealt by the trading deadline.

Dave Cameron: 85%.

Comment From Weekly Ryan Goins Question
So we’re about 10 days away from opening day and Ryan Goins still appears to be the Jays opening day 2b. What gives?

Dave Cameron: I have no idea.

Comment From Logan Morrison
What are your opinions on me as a person?

Dave Cameron: I prefer not to judge people by their Twitter accounts. You don’t come off that well, though.

Comment From Em
How do you think Pineda will do this year? His slider looks excellent, but huge fastball probably not coming back.

Dave Cameron: Which is a problem, because the slider won’t work against lefties. He might end up in the bullpen.

Comment From cavebird
They could do the opening series in non-baseball playing Caribbean countries, say Jamaica. Much closer, and they could convert a cricket grounds just like in Australia. One of these things I submit will eventually be a question, not a comment. Maybe.

Dave Cameron: Nice try, Lincecum.

Comment From Catoblepas
Is the pattern for catcher power rankings different than other positions? Usually I’d expect the very best to be pretty close to each other, but the gaps between the top few teams seem large. Is that unique to catching?

Dave Cameron: There’s a big gap at CF too. But yeah, somewhat abnormal.

Comment From Snatcher HQ
Who would you rather trade for assuming a fair cost? Nick Franklin or Didi Gregorius?

Dave Cameron: Depends on team roster construction. If I need an SS, Gregorius.

Comment From Chicago Mark
So, is Posey’s bat more important at first for say 10 years than at catcher for 5? It seems to me that his bat just doesn’t play well enough to make that switch.

Dave Cameron: Then you’re significantly underrating Posey’s bat.

Comment From MSW
Seriously, did Stephen Drew piss off an old gypsy or something this offseason? There are multiple large market teams with glaring needs at Shortstop, and Drew, a top 10 SS both offensively and defensively can’t even land a job? What gives?

Dave Cameron: He’s not a top 10 SS, and he’s asking for too much money.

Comment From Gabes
Will IF shifting, in its current form, last much longer? I have to imagine the extreme pull guys will get more comfortable taking the (almost free) bunt single.

Dave Cameron: Major League players are creatures of habit. Many of them simply aren’t going to be very good at learning to hit the other way.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Are there park factors available for seasons past? If I wanted to see how 1961 Yankee Stadium played, where could I find them?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&teamid=0&season=2013

Comment From pr
what would you set the over/under of Trout career WAR?

Dave Cameron: 75.

Comment From KJ
Why are the Sox waiting this long to move Carp?

Dave Cameron: I doubt they’re getting overwhelmed with offers.

Comment From Chris
Name I’m not seeing in reference to SS in Detroit is Danny Espinosa. Could you see that happening at all?

Dave Cameron: Nationals not really in the business of getting worse.

Comment From Catoblepas
How do you feel about data in other areas? People are talking a lot about Nate Silver/538 trying to bring data to “Life” stories, but it seems like the same complaints could have been said about sports 20-30 years ago. Are there any sectors of life that are totally data-resistant, or do we just not have the data for some areas yet?

Dave Cameron: I’m all for trying to see if we can learn about areas that aren’t obviously data-centric, as long as we recognize the limitations of what we can do in those areas with our current models. I would guess that we probably shouldn’t try to convince people to get married based on algorithmic compatibility.

Comment From Jay
As a Cards fan, should I be worried about Oscar’s string of injuries?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. He seems like a guy who might be a little bit brittle.

Comment From Joe
Is Fangraphs: The Game coming back?

Dave Cameron: It is.

Comment From Gabes
After seeing all the upward and downward revisions on Jose Abreu’s projections, what are you expecting from him this season?

Dave Cameron: .280/.360/.500.

Comment From Bret
If the Jays are out of contention at the trade deadline, do they tear things down?

Dave Cameron: Maybe. Unless the season gets AA fired, in which case they probably wouldn’t let him go into sell-off mode.

Comment From Stephen
Your guess at the distance of the longest homerun hit this year, and by whom?

Dave Cameron: 494. Stanton.

Comment From Ryguy
What is the music from that Carson uses in podcasts? I’m fairly certain that needs to be my ringtone…

Dave Cameron: Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass.

Comment From Richie
Don’t park effects correlate tightly enough with altitude such that we can posit somewhat just based on that? A bit, anyway?

Dave Cameron: You could use altitude to guess at the direction, but it doesn’t help a lot with the magnitude.

Comment From Michael
I’ve seen you recommend the Mets to trade for Gregorius but what is so appealing about him? Seems like they’re better off playing Tejada or signing Drew rather than giving up talent for Didi….

Dave Cameron: Gregorius is a solid average SS with potential to get better. Drew is an average SS on the decline. Tejada is bad.

Comment From Guest
Who do you try and sit next to at FG spring training games?

Dave Cameron: I tried to make a point of talking with as many of the FG staffers as I could. But I probably spent more time with Jeff than anyone else.

Comment From Bruce
Cubs Park or Salt River or other?

Dave Cameron: Salt River is still the best park down there.

Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
So if Arizona doesn’t want to start Delgado, what did they get for Justin Upton agian?

Dave Cameron: Martin Prado, who is a better player and costs less.

Comment From Hoback
Is it possible that once pitch framing starts getting more mainstream attention, then umpires will adjust? Thus diminishing some of the value.

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From greg
Do you think extreme infield shifting will cause more emphasis on “hitting the other way” or bunting by younger players and their coaches?

Dave Cameron: It should, but I’ve talked to a few MLB players about this, and they all say the same thing: bunting is not as easy as it looks.

Comment From Munenori Espresso Stand
Perhaps instead of non-U.S. openers, the two teams with the best records who missed the playoffs, could do a barnstorming tour of pick-your-baseball-loving-nation during the wild card round. Gives non-U.S. country some decent ML teams to watch, hardly distracts from playoffs, any injuries or time differences, etc. could be recovered from in the offseason.

Dave Cameron: Player’s association would never go for it.

Comment From Rays 7th Infielder
How dumb is it to 1) Sign Votto to longterm deal based on extraordinary OBP/discipline 2) Try to change approach into negatively affecting OBP/discipline

Dave Cameron: I highly doubt Votto is going to change his approach for anyone.

Comment From Gabes
If I’m an aspiring analyst, what skills/programming language should I be learning to work with the data we’ll (hopefully) be getting from the new MLBAM tracking system they debuted at Sloan?

Dave Cameron: SQL and R is a good place to start.

Comment From Sean
Is it just me, or is Didi a perfect fit for a trade with the Twins? Didi would be a big improvement over Floriman while the Twins have enough SP depth to send something back to AZ.

Dave Cameron: If the Twins have so much SP depth, why does their rotation suck?

Comment From Guest
Any interest in bringing in a guy to cover amateur prospects pre-draft? I’d be interested in a handful of articles and a chat or two.

Dave Cameron: If you have actual scouting chops and reasons for us to believe that your information is good, sure. Drop us a line through the contact form.

Comment From MSW
Sorry, Stephen Drew was only #11 in terms of DEF last season while being top 10 in OFF and fWAR. Still don’t understand why in today’s baseball economy, with such a limited number of productive shortstops and the high number of teams with a glaring need, that he doesn’t have a job.

Dave Cameron: Because there were years before 2013?

Comment From Tom
Yadier Molina = HOFer with a couple more years like the last few?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From toot toot
red sox apparently want to deal ryan lavarnway. Is there anyone who would actually want him? I can’t think of any possibilities

Dave Cameron: White Sox, maybe.

Comment From Guest
How much does the loss of Parker affect the Athletic’s chances?

Dave Cameron: Not much. I think Milone is probably better, actually.

Comment From Matt
What do you make of all the pitchers getting their 2nd Tommy John surgeries? Up until Daniel Hudson and Corey Luebke went back under the knife last year, it seemed pretty rare for pitchers to have a 2nd operation so close to the 1st one.

Dave Cameron: Pitchers are getting TJ younger than they used to, so there’s more of a chance for a second TJ now.

Comment From Stephen L
There don’t look to be many landing spots for Kendrys anymore. What % chance do you think there is he signs before the draft, and who might still sign him pre-draft?

Dave Cameron: I still think he ends up back in Seattle.

Comment From Catoblepas
For people with constrained resources, is a trip to spring training worth it, or are you better off putting that money toward tickets for the regular season?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what your goals are. If you want to get autographs or sit in seats with a close proximity to the field, it’s a good deal. If you actually want to watch a competitive baseball game, it’s a waste.

Comment From El Jefe
To spread the game, what if they took the Arizona Fall League and moved it outside the US? Young players would get a chance to see the world and would probably grumble less than veterans, and it wouldn’t disrupt the regular season.

Dave Cameron: Young players wouldn’t go, and no one internationally is going to go watch a bunch of guys they’ve never heard of play.

Comment From El Jefe
I agree that the Mets should be trying to trade for Gregorious, but who do you think they should give up? I’m having trouble pegging his value. Montero seems to be too much, but is a guy like deGrom too little?

Dave Cameron: My guess is that this is the same problem the Mets are having.

Comment From gareth
Atlanta ot the A’s – which team was hurt more by the pitching losses?

Dave Cameron: Braves, by a lot.

Comment From greg
Why is the draft date significant to free agents looking to sign? Wouldn’t the beginning of IFA be more appropriate since many deals are made around that time?

Dave Cameron: After the draft, compensation no longer attaches.

Comment From redmond
Should the Seattle Mariners have any interest in Pittsburgh outfielder Jose Tabata, who reportedly is being shopped by the Pirates? Would Justin Smoak or Logan Morrison be too much, or too little, to trade for Tabata?

Dave Cameron: Morrison for Tabata actually makes a decent amount of sense.

Comment From jocephus
would you spend 25$ on a hotdog

Dave Cameron: Does it come with a $20 bill on top?

Comment From Kimball
From a biophysics standpoint, does someone Ventura’s height throwing 100 necessarily put more strain on his body than someone Randy’s height? Or are one’s individual mechanics the primary factor?

Dave Cameron: According to the people who study this stuff, throwing harder puts more strain on an arm.

Comment From Jesse
Are you a believer in Tony Cingrani’s mostly one-pitch arsenal and its accompanying K rate?

Dave Cameron: Not for long term sustainable success, no.

Comment From Mike
Will Drew Pomeranz be able to take advantage of the Parker injury this season or has he already been relegated to the high draft pick “bust” category?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure A’s think there’s something salvageable there.

Comment From Flib-jibbet
I think we need baseball in India, probably. That could take off. Steal the cricketers away.

Dave Cameron: Agree. It might not be a short term thing, but there’s likely a big pool of potential talent there.

Comment From mcduder
Isn’t AZ fall league in AZ because of all the ST parks?

Dave Cameron: Yes, the infrastructure and weather make it a natural place to have it.

Comment From Dico Derk
all i hear about is how Chris Sale delivery is very violent, would it not be in the best interest of the White Sox to trade him and his super favorable contract for half a farm team?

Dave Cameron: Predicting pitcher injuries is hard. You don’t get rid of good pitchers because they might break.

Comment From Jesse
Wouldn’t the new fielding data coming from inside edge going to tell us a little bit more about how individual players specifically accrue their value rather than revolutionize our understanding of fielders’ value? Our current understanding can’t be that far off.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it helps us explain the fielding ratings a bit better.

Comment From Scott
Where is Cliff Lee pitching Aug 1st?

Dave Cameron: Boston.

Comment From Flib-jibbet
Randy Wolf, Scott Baker, Blake Beavan, or Roenis Elias. Which two do you like best?

Dave Cameron: An enema.

Comment From Richie
The first time I’ve actually seen that mentioned. “Bunting is not as easy as it looks”. If this is just flat-out so, and I suspect it is, then defensive shifts will have staying power. The first major defensive positional adjustment since … since what? When?

Dave Cameron: It isn’t that players can’t learn; it’s that it won’t just be such a quick and easy fix. It will take a few years of instruction with players coming up through the minors. David Ortiz isn’t going to learn how to bunt well, basically, but you might be able to teach the next David Ortiz while he’s still in the minors.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch. Thanks for hanging out. Enjoy the Australia games, and we’ll see you guys next week.