FanGraphs Chat – 3/26/14
11:49 |
: Welcome to the last pre-season chat of the year. The queue is now open, and we’ll talk Positional Power Rankings, Opening Day, or any other non-fantasy subject you’d like to tackle.
|
12:03 |
Ummm… who the hell am I? |
12:03 |
: A non-prospect being pushed into a rotation spot because an organization failed to actually build real depth over the winter.
|
12:04 |
Do you put any value in Moustakas’ Spring performance? Any reason (yet) to suspect he’ll outperform projections? |
12:04 |
: No and no.
|
12:04 |
The Reds not a top 15 rotation? Please explain. |
12:04 |
: They were tied with the Orioles, so realistically, they could have been #15 but lost the coin flip.
|
12:04 |
Starling’s deal buys out two pre-arb, 3 arb, and 1 FA season… at $31mm. This is a steal for Pitt, isn’t it? |
12:04 |
: Yes.
|
12:04 |
: A big one, perhaps.
|
12:05 |
Help me understand the M’s Re: Randy Wolf. They give Cano $240M and then yank Wolf around over what? $700k?? If they don’t want him on the rotation, release him. If they do, then sign him without the 45-day thing! Stay classy Z! |
12:05 |
: it comes off very poorly, no doubt, and certainly feeds into the idea that they care more about finances than winning. But let’s be honest; Randy Wolf probably sucks. There are free agents out there better than him, and if they sign Chris Young or Freddy Garcia or someone of that ilk, they’re likely better off than if they had kept Wofl.
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12:06 |
Thoughts on texas #3 position? I figured they be middle of pack at best, and if Yu missed significant time, they are near the bottom. What am I missing? Thanks. |
12:06 |
: As Jeff noted, the projections for Scheppers are Ross were loaded as if they were going to be relievers, and haven’t been updated to reflect that they were moved into the rotation. The numbers are overrating those two, basically.
|
12:06 |
Please tell me I’m not the only one who thinks that the Yankees do not ACTUALLY have the 4th-best pitching staff (as per the positional power rankings)?!?! |
12:08 |
: I’m sure you’re not the only one who thinks that. The projections still like Sabathia a lot, though, and love Tanaka. Kuroda and Nova are in the running for best 3/4 in baseball. It’s not ridiculous if you think CC is still very good.
|
12:08 |
Thoughts on Marte deal? |
12:09 |
: Selling two free agent years and giving the Pirates two option years means he’s pushed back his free agent window by four years. For $31 million. That’s kind of crazy.
|
12:09 |
If you had to pick one team in the bottom 10 of playoff odds (ARI, MIL, PHI, NYM, BAL, CHW, MIA, CHC, MIN, HOU)to make the playoffs, which would it be? |
12:09 |
: Probably the D’Backs, since the NL Wild Card is pretty wide open.
|
12:10 |
The Blue Jays have announced their bench: Maicer Izturis, Moises Sierra and Josh Thole. Should this be considered a crime? |
12:10 |
: They’re only keeping three bench guys? Really?
|
12:10 |
Everyone seems to have decided the Nationals are going to run away with the East. They lost by 10 games last year. I’m not saying the Braves were really 10 games better than them last year, and the Nationals have gotten better while the Braves got worse. But has it really been a big enough swing to go from 10 games down to easily winning? It seems like the Braves should have some margin for error here. |
12:10 |
: You don’t use last year’s performance as the benchmark for this year’s performance.
|
12:11 |
Any wild theories about Franklin in the outfield yesterday? |
12:11 |
: No wild theories. They haven’t found a trade match for him, so they’re trying to figure out how to put him to use if they keep him.
|
12:11 |
If a team decided to offer 7 year extensions with team options to all their picks through round three as a grand gambling exercise, would it remove too much of the prospects’ motivation to develop and succeed? |
12:11 |
: CBA doesn’t allow teams to give major league contracts to draft picks anymore.
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12:12 |
: But, no, I don’t think it would affect their motivation. Guys play baseball because they love it and they are competitive, not just to steal a paycheck and then get lazy.
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12:12 |
What’s the latest word on Darvish’s injury? |
12:13 |
: Won’t start opening day, but doesn’t sound too serious.
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12:13 |
Just because Volquez and Liriano are in similar situations going into Pittsburgh doesn’t automatically mean that Volquez is going to do well right? |
12:13 |
: Correct.
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12:13 |
Is the the worst week of the offseason or the best week of the offseason? |
12:13 |
: Considering how many Positional Power Rankings pieces I’ve edited, I’m going with worst.
|
12:13 |
Is a league-average hitter roughly equivalent to a replacement-level bat for a DH? |
12:13 |
: Yeah, if you’re a strictly DH type and you can’t hit better than average, you’re worth nothing, really.
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12:14 |
Suprise team in the NL/AL? Can the Pirates take it all ths year? |
12:15 |
: 2 Wild Cards make it tough for there to really be a “surprise team”, since any team even anywhere near the bubble goes for it and tries to win now. Are the Angels a “surprise team” since they were bad last year? What about the Blue Jays? I think both could be contenders, but they were projected favorites last year, so they seem like bad surprise picks.
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12:15 |
rangers need 2b and plan to compete… what would daniel murphy return? |
12:16 |
: Probably not a ton. I don’t think anyone in MLB likes him as much as WAR does.
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12:16 |
Which position is the hardest to get “right” in the positional rankings series? Jeff pointed out several issues with the SP rankings, such as converting relievers’ projections into starters’ projections. (I would imagine playing time projections are also nearly impossible for SP.) |
12:16 |
: SP or C, for sure. There’s a bunch of stuff about catchers that WAR doesn’t capture, but with SP, there’s so many moving parts.
|
12:17 |
Can you explain the rankings systems? If a player is set to alternate between OF spots, will he only get pro-rated WAR at each position? My point is, if a good player is set to rotate between RF and CF, could that stunt the rankings if he’s only getting 1.5 WAR at each? |
12:17 |
: It reflects where the value will actually come from. Ben Zobrist is valuable, but he’s not going to be the best 2B or the best RF.
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12:18 |
Was there a positional ranking that really shocked you? As a homer, I was surprised to see the Orioles as 14th-best in CF, with Adam Jones’ getting 85% of the plate appearances. |
12:18 |
: I don’t know about shocked, but as soon as I saw the Braves rotation come out 23rd, I knew we were going to hear it from ATL fans.
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12:19 |
Can you expound a little more on how stats like wRC+ are park-adjusted? Is it basically that the unadjusted runs created for a player on a given day are multiplied by the park factors in which that game was played? And if so, is every outcome that generated the run multiplied by that outcome’s specific factor in that park? In other words, would differing stat lines that happened to result in identical total unadjusted runs created in a game in the same stadium by two players result in different weighted runs since each different outcome (2B, 3B, HR, K, etc.) has a different factor in the same park? |
12:20 |
: wRC+ uses the overall runs park factor, not the component park factors. Just because a park makes a certain outcome – say, triples – more scarce doesn’t make them more valuable. wRC+ is trying to measure the value of a player’s performance, not neutralize the components into a league average setting.
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12:20 |
Is the extent to which the Tigers are depending on their starting rotation (generally the biggest injury center for a baseball team) an underrated source of downside risk for their season? |
12:20 |
: Any team that is pitching heavy has more downside risk than a team that has value tied up in their bats or defense.
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12:22 |
Dave, I haven’t seen anything from you on USSMariner to this effect, but I’m wondering if you’re harboring a bit of optimism (scary!) about this year’s Mariners team? Not that they look great, but the rest of the AL West doesn’t project to be super imposing… |
12:22 |
: I like the rest of the division opponents more than the projections do.
|
12:22 |
Charlottesville, Virginia or Asheville, North Carolina? |
12:23 |
: Depends on the point of the trip. I love Asheville, and have only spent a little bit of time in Charlotesville, but I’m guessing you’re picking between colleges, and so your decision should be based on more things than which I one I prefer visiting on the weekends.
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12:24 |
Most sabr-savvy writers are good at not being a jerk in discussions with non-stats informed people, but do you ever get worn out from those discussions? Like a moment of frustrating clarity where you just shake your head that RBIs are still being used and people just refuse to “get it”? |
12:24 |
: I generally try to assess early whether people are interested in having a discussion that might lead to both sides learning something, or if they just want to argue. If it’s the latter, I don’t even bother.
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12:25 |
Not as a “best interest of the game” thing, but strictly as a fan do you like the season starting earlier out of country? |
12:25 |
: Nope.
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12:25 |
Angels surprise division winner this year?? |
12:25 |
: We have them as the favorites right now, so I don’t know if that’s a surprise, really.
|
12:25 |
Top 3 picks for 2014 AL ROY? |
12:25 |
: Tanaka/Abreu/distant runner up.
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12:25 |
I’ve looked better this spring, think I can post a .340+ OBP with 25+ homers and near 3 wins in 2014? |
12:26 |
: I’ll go with no. Anything is possible, but that’s a rosy forecast for an old guy with a slow bat.
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12:26 |
Do the injuries the A’s and the Ranger’s have suffered given the Mariner’s a decent chance at winning the decision? |
12:26 |
: It’s not like the Mariners are at full strength either.
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12:26 |
Could Chris Capuano become available if he doesn’t make the Red Sox rotation or are they going to stash him in the bullpen as a long reliever? |
12:27 |
: Pretty sure he signed there knowing he would be a reliever unless someone got hurt.
|
12:27 |
Re: the Reds that isn’t an explanation. Please explain why Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Cingrani, Leake don’t constitute one of the best five-man rotations around. That ranking is contrarian nuttiness. |
12:27 |
: Latos is hurt, Cueto is frequently hurt, there is zero depth, and they don’t have anything even close to a true #1 starter.
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12:28 |
Hints of some roster moves for the M’s coming today. Have any ideas or guesses what it might be? |
12:28 |
: If they don’t sign Chris Young, I’ll be surprised.
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12:29 |
Sure, the Royals’ lineup is improved, but it’s still not elite by any means. Given this, does KC’s rotation all but preclude them from playoff contention? I see James Shields, then a cliff-like drop off to a rotation full of risky options that are 4s – at best. Am I over concerned? |
12:29 |
: Yeah, I don’t really see them as a particularly good team.
|
12:29 |
The Braves SP is far too low, even with the injuries. I wouldn’t even count on Alex Wood so much, but Teheran is underrated, as is Santana and Minor’s impact. Has to be the biggest flaw in the projection, right? |
12:29 |
: “I disagree with this” is not the same thing as “this is flawed”
|
12:29 |
What do you think the Rangers would have to give up for Rickie Weeks? This seems like a good fit – would the Brewers trade Weeks for essentially nothing to gain salary relief? |
12:30 |
: Yeah, he’s a giveaway at this point.
|
12:30 |
Is there a relatively straightforward way to adjust a projection for a given batter against a given pitcher? Suppose righty Batter A has an expected .340 wOBA against LHP. He faces a lefty, Pitcher B, who has an expected wOBA against righties of .290. Playing in a neutral park, what is an expected wOBA for this at-bat? |
12:30 |
: .315, or something very close to it.
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12:31 |
Who is more likely to be terrible in 2014, in your estimation: Trevor Bauer or Billy Hamilton? |
12:31 |
: Bauer, without hesitation.
|
12:31 |
swydan thinks matheny is stupid for putting martinez and rosenthal in bullpen instead of trying to start (last nights chat)…your thoughts? |
12:32 |
: I disagree. I think they have five good starters as is, and if Garcia comes back healthy, they have no real need for either one in the rotation.
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12:32 |
And can you give thoughts on the Marte deal from the Pirates perspective? |
12:32 |
: WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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12:32 |
: Or something like that.
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12:32 |
The costs of knuckleballers question – Is having R.A. Dickey worth it, if it means it means playing Josh Thole and carrying him on roster? |
12:33 |
: There’s more evidence that having a knuckler makes the rest of your pitchers better than there is that there’s a huge cost to having to carry a specific backup catcher.
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12:33 |
: So, yes, having Dickey is worth it.
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12:33 |
The subtraction of Freddy Garcia and addition of Aaron Harang is _____. |
12:33 |
: A push.
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12:33 |
If you are the mets, giving the higher probability of pitcher injuries, why wouldnt you just trade montero for franklin? |
12:33 |
: Not if I don’t think Franklin can play SS, which I don’t.
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12:34 |
How much of an injustice is it to baseball fans everywhere that Joe Kelly is starting over Carlos Martinez? My MLB.tv viewing pleasure has significantly decreased. |
12:34 |
: Joe Kelly is fine and Carlos Martinez is probably better off as a reliever.
|
12:34 |
As a Reds fan, these positional power rankings have been really disappointing. Are the Reds really expected to do that poorly? They’re currently projected to be one of the worst 10 teams based on WAR. |
12:34 |
: The forecasts think they’re a .500 team, maybe a little worse. They punted on an off-season where they needed to make real improvements.
|
12:35 |
Which out of Ross or Scheppers has the best shot to actually stick as a starter? |
12:35 |
: Ross.
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12:35 |
I’m mildly surprised the Mets came in at #29 for SP. I didn’t think they’d be in the top half of the league, but pitching is widely considered to be their strength. Is it just that they’re fielding a rotation with more filler than their top arms? How would you explain this disconnect? Thanks! |
12:35 |
: If they put Mejia and Syndergaard in the rotation, they wouldn’t be 29th.
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12:36 |
I know in the podcast, you stated that people hated the organizational rankings, but I really liked them. Any possibility they could be rolled out in the future again? |
12:37 |
: People didn’t hate the org rankings, but I felt like they had used up their usefulness, at least in that format. We’ve talked about doing some kind of org rankings using another method, but haven’t figured out the best way yet.
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12:37 |
I’m over 60 WAR for my career. Am I close to being a Hall of Famer? |
12:37 |
: The 60 WAR bar is more for position players than pitchers. You probably have a ways to go still.
|
12:37 |
Writing Question: What do you look for when you edit an article, other than factual errors and spelling mistakes? |
12:38 |
: Tone, evidence to support claims, making sure key points aren’t omitted.
|
12:38 |
Let’s briefly bring revisit the good old days of championing overlooked guys: Which AAAA player, marginal prospect, or bench player would you like to see get a chance at earning a regular MLB job? |
12:39 |
: Scott Van Slyke, maybe.
|
12:39 |
I don’t think 23rd for ATL rotation is crazy considering their injuries. I’d take the over on Santana providing +1.4 WAR, though. |
12:39 |
: Yeah, that forecast is actually flawed because of the signing date. Feel free to bump him up to +2 to +2.5.
|
12:39 |
Is there a way to strip away defense and just get the offensive WAR for a player? wrc+ is great for comparing to league average but doesn’t give us WAR. |
12:40 |
: Go to the value section, subtract out FLD from the RAR column, and then divide by 10 to turn RAR into WAR. It’t not a very good idea, but that’s how you’d do it.
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12:41 |
I just noticed that King Felix is projected by ZiPS to have 0.8 more WAR than Kershaw in one fewer inning pitched than Clayton. Surprising? |
12:41 |
: FIP-based WAR underrates Kershaw.
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12:41 |
If Uggla tanks first couple months, Braves make a move for a 2B? Is a trade for Franklin or Miller realistic? |
12:41 |
: They’ll just call up La Stella.
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12:41 |
Judge this hypothetical from 1 (completely stupid) to 5 (worth considering): A team loads its infield with defense-only players (like shortstops) and its pitching staff with GB heavy pitchers. |
12:42 |
: No reason to waste SS range at 1B. Be better off getting two crazy good defensive OFs and then putting a rover behind the 2B bag in short CF.
|
12:42 |
Are you aware of any current MLB players who have embraced statistics such as WAR, wRC+, etc. as a means for judging personal improvement and goals as opposed to the standard metrics in the box score? |
12:43 |
: Yeah, there are a few who really buy into this way of measuring themselves.
|
12:43 |
As a Braves fan I have to say I’m not at all surprised our rotation looks bad in the projections, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it just isn’t that good this year. |
12:43 |
: Please hold a town hall and convince your fellow Braves fans.
|
12:43 |
To touch on that other chatter’s comment — how come so little activity at USSM? Will your activity pick up there with season starting? |
12:44 |
: To be honest, I don’t know. This sabbatical wasn’t really planned; it just happened. Jeff asked me if I had officially retired from writing about the Mariners, and I didn’t have an answer for him.
|
12:44 |
How does the Carlos Santana as full-time 3B experiment end? |
12:44 |
: With him as a full time 3B.
|
12:44 |
Where do you think Seager settles in Seattle’s lineup…2-hole, cleanup or 5th? |
12:44 |
: My guess is he ends up hitting 5th.
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12:45 |
I’m an Indians fan, but I think Bogaerts has a pretty solid shot to be more than a “distant runner up” in ROY. |
12:45 |
: Okay, sure, he’d be the best of the non-old-guy ROY candidates.
|
12:45 |
Don’t you think homer Bailey is being underrated by projection systems? I think 2013 was a step forward not a fluke career year |
12:46 |
: You generally don’t want to count on a guy repeating the best year of his career. It doesn’t have to be a fluke to be unsustainable.
|
12:46 |
Chris Young is better than Randy Wolf by a ways? Isn’t he? |
12:46 |
: Yeah, probably.
|
12:46 |
Why do playing time predictions in the depth charts tend to lean toward the conservative side? |
12:46 |
: Because players get hurt.
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12:47 |
Are Braves fans the most touchy? They seem the most touchy. |
12:47 |
: I don’t know that we have a touchy+ metric, but if we did, I think ATL would be #1, yes.
|
12:47 |
Seems like Towers got more crap than he deserved for his Bauer/Upton deals last winter, agree? |
12:47 |
: Yep, and I said that all last winter too.
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12:48 |
Re: Sabathia and Yankee starting pitching rank. Spring stats mean nothing, but (as Jeff wrote): 2013 spring CC was coming off elbow procedure, 10 ip, 6 Ks, 4 BB. This spring 17 IP, 16 Ks, 3 BB. I don’t think velocity will be back necessarily, but I like him to come closer to his career numbers. Also, itbsohl! |
12:48 |
: It’s worth noting that Steamer and ZIPS both take velocity into account on their pitcher forecasts. And they still like CC.
|
12:48 |
As a general matter, previous information does not get discarded in good analysis. But at what point are a player’s prospect valuations essentially meaningless? |
12:48 |
: Probably after ~5 years of performance, something like that.
|
12:48 |
: They’re never entirely meaningless, but they stop holding a lot of weight after a while.
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12:49 |
Any off the cuff estimate on Didi Gregorious’s trade value, is it more or less than Franklin’s? |
12:49 |
: I think more, because he can actually play SS.
|
12:49 |
Does Archie Bradley have a G Cole like impact this year in AZ? Or is his pedigree slightly better? |
12:49 |
: Worse, I think. I’m not buying the Bradley hype just yet. Too many command issues, and people seem to be putting too much stock on his minor league ERAs.
|
12:50 |
Kelly has a career 108 FIP- and xFIP-. So you don’t think Carlos Martinez could better that as a starter? If not he’s been drastically, drastically overrated by every prospect site. |
12:50 |
: I think Kelly can be better than that, and Martinez not dramatically better.
|
12:50 |
Are teams better than the public at forecasting injuries? Has there been much improvement over the past 10 years? |
12:50 |
: Better, sure, but we all suck at it.
|
12:50 |
Who wins the ChiSox closing gig? |
12:51 |
: Nate Jones.
|
12:51 |
Why do so many fans take objective projections and rankings personally? You would think fans of a site like fangraphs would understand a bit better that you have no particular biases or motives in your analysis. |
12:51 |
: No, we hate everyone. All writers do. We live to make everyone angry.
|
12:51 |
What do you think of the Pirates most likely going with Travis Ishikawa? |
12:51 |
: Not buying it until he actually takes the field on Opening Day.
|
12:51 |
Where does the tendon come from for guys getting thier 2nd TJ surgery? |
12:52 |
: Well, you have two hamstrings, right?
|
12:52 |
Ivan Nova: Super sleeper dark horse Cy Young candidate? |
12:52 |
: Basically have to be best pitcher on your own team to win Cy Young, and little chance he’s NYY’s best starter.
|
12:52 |
As a Mariners fan, I find it laughable to think they’ll have the 7th best rotation in baseball. Tell me why I’m wrong. |
12:53 |
: I don’t think it’s laughable, since Felix/Iwakuma are both very good, but yeah, I’ll take the under on that too. By a lot.
|
12:53 |
For WAR, how was the runs-to-wins ratio determined? |
12:53 |
: Pythagenpat.
|
12:53 |
Do you have any idea what kinds of contingency planning MLB has in place in case, god forbid, some disaster occurred to an entire roster, like a plane crash? |
12:54 |
: I believe the CBA has a clause allowing for a dispersal draft in case of something catastrophic.
|
12:54 |
Pirates rotation projected to be worse than the Cubs and Angels, I would say they have one of the best chances to outperform their ranking, right? |
12:54 |
: I think so, but a lot of it depends on Francisco Liriano staying healthy, which isn’t a great bet.
|
12:54 |
Should the Royals make a move for Franklin? |
12:54 |
: No? Omar Infante is just fine.
|
12:55 |
re the hypothetical about an infield of all shortstops: at what positions is it easiest to generate defensive value? Can the best-fielding first baseman approach a solid second baseman? What is the range like? |
12:56 |
: 1B is probably easiest spot to generate value, because there are some total defensive nothings that drag down the average. 1Bs aren’t really part of the 2B/SS/ pool very often.
|
12:56 |
: A very good defensive 1B who throws right-handed could probably be an okay 3B.
|
12:56 |
: Assuming the arm strength is there.
|
12:56 |
Tony Blengino is awesome, first of all. It’s pretty clear that he uses some non-fangraphs-available stats in his pieces, right? Can you tell us if these are publicly available, are his personal numbers, or are otherwise proprietary? It’s fantastic stuff but it’s not clear where his data is coming from. Thanks. |
12:57 |
: He worked in a Major League front office. He had access to stuff that we don’t.
|
12:57 |
Is your USSM sabbatical driven more by your workload with Fangraphs or your overall depression regarding the state of the Mariners? (Pick one!) |
12:57 |
: Probably workload. I really like my job a lot, and I put a lot of pride into doing it as well as I can, but when you work a lot, you don’t really want your hobby to be the same thing as your job.
|
12:58 |
Regarding writing for the Mariners — dare I say you’re becoming disinterested in them as a fan? Or just literally tired of writing about them? |
12:58 |
: A little bit of both. I also just don’t know what I have to say about them that is new or interesting.
|
12:58 |
Do you think Max Scherzer is making a good performance-related gamble? Assuming Boras is right that he has a substantial insurance policy to cover the injury risk |
12:58 |
: If he wants to maximize dollars, yes.
|
12:59 |
If you saw Jayson Werth on the street would you give him $1? |
12:59 |
: He’s way richer than I am, so no.
|
12:59 |
re:Didi vs. Franklin – even as a glove first player? Aren’t glove first SS easy to find? |
1:00 |
: Not ones who can hit well enough to be regulars.
|
1:00 |
: You can’t just say “glove first SS” and assume that they’re all equally valuable.
|
1:00 |
: Andrelton Simmons is a “glove first SS”. So is Cesar Izturis.
|
1:00 |
Do I have 40/40 potential? |
1:01 |
: Yes, if those categories are strikeouts looking and strikeouts swinging.
|
1:01 |
If Scherzer posts an identical 2014 to his 2013 and survives with a clean bill of health, how much more than the 6/$144 he reportedly turned down do you see him getting on the open market? |
1:01 |
: 7/175ish.
|
1:01 |
How does having a knuckler on your staff make your other pitchers better? |
1:02 |
: There’s some evidence that hitters timing is screwed up by having a knuckler in the series. There was a community post about this a few months back.
|
1:02 |
I’m was going to make brandade de morue for dinner and had no space in the fridge so I left the salt cod to soak on the counter. Should I eat it or toss it? |
1:02 |
: Yeah, I wouldn’t eat fish that sat on the counter for too long.
|
1:03 |
Over/under 85 wins for the Yankees this season? |
1:03 |
: Over.
|
1:03 |
Re a very good defensive 1B who throws right handed could probably be an okay 3B — Freddie Freeman reportedly has a really strong arm, do you think he will ever move to 3B after Chris Johnson leaves ATL? |
1:04 |
: No.
|
1:04 |
If you had to pick one current/former player who is the face of ” sabermetrics” and one former/current player who is the face of the old school. Who would they be? |
1:04 |
: It’s either Votto or McCarthy, right? Old school is probably Cabrera, simply because he does the things that old school folks love.
|
1:05 |
: Okay, off to get some lunch and play with the dog.
|
1:05 |
: Thanks for hanging out today everyone.
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Way to go Mariners — http://deadspin.com/the-mariners-tried-to-screw-randy-wolf-so-he-walked-aw-1552028250
Is that opportunity I hear knockin’?