FanGraphs Chat – 5/29/13

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open. We’ll get started in 15 minutes or so.

Comment From Jeff From Austin
What in the world would you do with Bossman Junior?

Dave Cameron: Play him and wait for the slump to end. It’s just a slump, and it will end.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
if you were the O’s would you demote Gausman at this point or let him keep taking his lumps at the MLB level?

Dave Cameron: It’s two starts.

Comment From Ryan
The Cardinals, Reds and Pirates (tied with Texas) have the 3 best records in baseball. How many (and which ones) make the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: The Cardinals and Reds. Sorry Pittsburgh, I think you fall just short.

Comment From Bkgeneral
Yost and Wedge both should be fired, that much is clear. Who gets it first? Who deserves it most?

Dave Cameron: In both cases, the problems run deeper than the manager. Both organizations need to start over and put someone in the big chair who puts more of an emphasis on logical thinking.

Comment From Shannon Granger
What kind of odds would you give the Cardinals of holding the Reds off for the rest of the year? They’re playing pretty great so far, but it’s pretty tough to overcome injuries to 3/5 of your projected opening day rotation.

Dave Cameron: The Cardinals 6th-8th starters are better than a lot of teams 3rd-5th guys.

Comment From MarinerDan
What is wrong with Moustakas? Will he turn it around or has his star dimmed considerably?

Dave Cameron: I think the bat is nothing special.

Comment From Drew
Hi Dave. Love the chats. As a Padres fan, I am ecstatic that they finally have a potent offense. That said, now their pitching is just terrible, which was evident to most fans, but somehow didn’t make it into the thought process of Byrnes. Given that they are still within striking distance of the division, shouldn’t Byrnes get off his butt and make some moves. First seems to be DFA Richards and the second would be to go back to Detroit with hat in hand and offer Street and another arm for Porcello.

Dave Cameron: There’s no way you’re getting Rick Porcello for Huston Street.

Comment From Guest
Should the Jays trade Bautista or Encarnacion? What might the return look like?

Dave Cameron: They are going to be a fascinating seller at the deadline. I doubt they move either, and probably just trade Josh Johnson, but I wouldn’t put it past AA to make a blockbuster if he got an offer that brought in young talent that could help in 2014.

Comment From JH
Any thoughts on what the Mariners should do with Kendrys Morales moving forward? Try to trade, or make a qualifying offer and try to sign to a 3 or 4 year deal at a reasonable AAV?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to write this up pretty soon, but I think he’e exactly the kind of guy that the qualifying offer will hurt the most. I don’t think they need to give him a long term deal if they want to keep him. A QO could easily nuke his market and make him this year’s Adam LaRoche.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
would a Doug Fister comparison be a fair one for Zach McAllister’s potential? Both are tall RHP that get decent GB #’s and limit the free pass

Dave Cameron: Fister’s change-up and curve are much better.

Comment From Chris
Who is the worst major league regular?

Dave Cameron: Jeff Francoeur.

Comment From Tom
Do you have an opinion about fans booing players who are struggling (Matt Kemp, e.g.)? Part of me thinks it’s bush league, but part of me thinks it’s just part of the entertainment of pretending like sports really matter.

Dave Cameron: I don’t have a problem with booing when it’s for effort or something under a player’s control. With Kemp, I’d imagine if he could hit better, he would. What’s the point of telling a guy who is trying that he isn’t succeeding? He knows that.

Comment From Richdanna
Starlin Castro – Do the “he’s only 23” excuses still hold water, or should there be cause for concern?

Dave Cameron: Both. He’s only 23, but at some point, he’ll have to start improving.

Comment From Jay
Are the Nationals really a .500 team, or are they underperforming in some critical areas? They have a negative run differential! What gives?

Dave Cameron: Lots of hitters underperforming. I don’t think you’ll see guys like Zimmerman hit this badly all year long.

Comment From Bernard Gilkey
Obviously you may not have seen all the top guys, but from what you hear, what top draft guys appeal to you from an analytic perspective?

Dave Cameron: They all sound pretty similar, honestly.

Comment From Chris
How did the makers of WAR come up with the positional adjustment? How was it determined how much harder a position is than another, like RF vs LF or 3B vs 2B, and etc.?

Dave Cameron: It comes from looking at the changes in defensive performance from players who move from one position to the next, or from guys who play both positions.

Comment From Eminor3rd
What are your thought on Sullivan’s latest framing article? When throwing to better framers, pitchers have the same strike % with a lower zone %. Is this what we’ve been missing?

Dave Cameron: Jeff hits on some of the concerns I’ve been noting about the pitch framing numbers, and I do think there’s more to the catcher/pitcher interaction than simply measuring marginal called balls/strikes.

Comment From lowercase jeff
Are you at all concerned about Andrew Cashner’s missing strikeouts? Supposedly he is try to be “more efficient”. Is there any evidence pitching to contact can keep a pitcher’s pitch count down?

Dave Cameron: I wrote about this with Strasburg for ESPN/FG+ a few months back. Basically, no, the difference between a pitch-to-contact guy and a strikeout guy is 2 or 3 pitches per start.

Comment From Dustin
This month you’ve made Raul Ibanez good and Anthony Rizzo terrible just by writing about them. I’d like to get out in front of these things a bit for fantasy purposes, so what’s on tap next?

Dave Cameron: Don’t forget that I ruined Dustin Ackley too.

Comment From Benzedrine
Can Evan Gattis be the Braves everyday 3B? It seems like many players have interchanged between 3B/C in their careers.

Dave Cameron: Those players were more athletic than Gattis.

Comment From Matt
How long will Rick Porcello’s recent high-strikeout trend have to last before you consider it to be “real”?

Dave Cameron: Sullivan will have a post up on Porcello later today. Until then, enjoy this nugget: Porcello has the same K% in May as Stephen Strasburg.

Comment From Kyle
What is going on with Matt Cain, we are over 10 starts now and still +5.00 ERA, should I be worried?

Dave Cameron: You should be worried that you’re looking at his ERA.

Comment From James
When you say you think the Pirates fall short, what do you think their record ends up being?

Dave Cameron: I’ll go 87-75.

Comment From Nik
What kind of return can the Phils get for Lee? Top 100 guy and another piece?

Dave Cameron: All depends on how much of the contract they pick up. This trade deadline is going to be an interesting test of wills, with Aramis Ramirez also being a high cost player who could help a bunch of teams. Will contenders take on big future salaries to win now?

Comment From Joe
What should the Yankees do with Overbay when Tex comes back? He is mashing righties this year.

Dave Cameron: Bench him, because he’s still Lyle Overbay.

Comment From J-Mag
Thoughts on Segura’s 6-7 night?

Dave Cameron: I was more impressed until I heard the last guy to do it was Willie Harris.

Comment From Yeah Yeah
If you could only attend one game this 2013 season, and you could hand-pick the starting pitching matchup, which two teams would you pay to watch, and in what stadium?

Dave Cameron: Fun question. I might go Reds-Cardinals in STL, with Shelby Miller going against Mat Latos.

Comment From JB
Do I have the right school of thought when judging bullpen pitchers? WAR is a bad measurement because it can only judge the pitcher’s effectiveness over the amount of innings he pitches and doesn’t take in account the situation? For instance, having a great closer like Marino Riviera is much more valuable then say an above average fourth outfielder. Thus we should judge bullpen pitchers using stats like Ks and BBs. Am I on the right track or should I turn around?

Dave Cameron: You should turn around. WAR isn’t perfect for relievers, but leverage is included in the calculation, so the situation is taken into account.

Comment From Ryan
Sullivan was throwing cold water on the Wacha enthusiasts yesterday. What are your expectations for him right away?

Dave Cameron: At this point, I assume every player the Cardinals call up will instantly dominate, far above and beyond all expectations.

Comment From Nolan
With the Royals skidding, is it time for old Dayton to finally update his resume? I mean, the Shields trade was pretty obviousy a “go for it in 2013” moment, right?

Dave Cameron: If this season doesn’t get him fired, I have no idea what it would take.

Comment From One Mans Opinion
Do you think Fangraphs will have pitching framing data on the site anytime soon?

Dave Cameron: Once we’re a little more confident in the methodology, sure.

Comment From Marco
Which batted ball factors would allow a BABIP to be logically sustainable? I feel like there’s a handful of stats types who misuse BABIP and write off high ones as fluky or luck-based when there’s actually some substance to them.

Dave Cameron: GBs go for hits more often than FBs, so a guy who hits the ball on the ground a lot will post a higher BABIP than a guy who hits the ball in the air a ton. Speed is also a factor.

Comment From Ruben
Would you join me in saying people need to stop worrying about Middlebrooks? As a fan, .215 ISO in his first 470 career PA’s is all I care about. All the bad stuff is a combo of bad luck, and him living up to be the overly aggressive hitter everyone knew he would be. I feel like every complaint about him is driven by some Fantasy-driven feeling of betrayal.

Dave Cameron: Yep, anyone who thinks a guy who swings too often would benefit from more selectivity feels betrayed. That’s not a crazy thought at all.

Comment From Bob
Who is the most underrated player in the game today?

Dave Cameron: A few months ago, I went with Erick Aybar. I might go with Matt Carpenter right now.

Comment From Vottomatic
With the Reds lacking a real center fielder on their roster, who do they go after at the trade deadline so they can finally put Choo in the corner where he belongs? Doesn’t seem like there are any to be had. Maaaaaaybe Rasmus?

Dave Cameron: Franklin Gutierrez would make a lot of sense for them.

Comment From Chris
So then what are the rankings of defensive positions in baseball for WAR?

Dave Cameron: You can read all about the positional adjustments in the FanGraphs Library.

Comment From MarinerDan
Do the Mariners trade Wilhelmsen at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: I would strongly consider it, yes.

Comment From Sean T.
If the Pirates don’t make it (assuming Reds/Cards), who do you think will be the second wild card?

Dave Cameron: Loser of ARI/SF in the west.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Do the Marlins trade Stanton this year?

Dave Cameron: This calendar year? Maybe, because November/December are still part of 2013. Not this season, though.

Comment From BassmanUW
Considering the salary issue that goes along with Lee, do you think teams could still aim for Matt Garza first presuming he’s available as well? He’s clearly not the pitcher Lee is, but as a rental would cost less in prospects and wouldn’t be under contract 2014.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d imagine Garza will be option A for a lot of teams.

Comment From Okie
Who do you think has the edge in the AL West?

Dave Cameron: Texas is the best team and has the lead. So Texas.

Comment From Steve
Thoughts on Montero and/or Ackley returning this season?

Dave Cameron: Ackley will be back in the second half, Montero in September.

Comment From Andrew
Leverage is included as part of relief pitcher WAR? Is this just for relief pitchers or starters as well?

Dave Cameron: Leverage for starters is almost always near 1.0, so in practical purposes, it’s basically just for relievers.

Comment From Teeger
If you were a GM drafting this year, would you rathaer have one top 10 pick, or 3 lower 1st round picks like the Yankees?

Dave Cameron: The top pick.

Comment From Billy
One of the Reds announcers recently talked about Joey Votto being the best according to some kind of stat that measured scoops for 1B. Other than at catcher, are there those kind of position-dependent considerations factored into WAR? Where would one find such stats?

Dave Cameron: Scoops are included in UZR, yes. MGL wrote a piece on scoop data for FG a few years ago and found that there isn’t a big difference between MLB 1Bs in terms of saving runs through scoops.

Comment From jesse
How much longer does Garza pitch for the Cubs?

Dave Cameron: 6 weeks.

Comment From EJC
Should the Marlins have traded Stanton this past winter?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Who fetches more at the deadline, Peavy or Garza?

Dave Cameron: Garza, but it will be close.

Comment From Alex
So you don’t see the ATL/WAS runner up making the posteseason at all? I’m not implying that is wrong, but it certainly is interesting. Are you that down on Washington?

Dave Cameron: It’s going to be very close. There are a lot of good NL teams.

Comment From Aaron
Do you see the Braves in the market for a SP this season? Maybe Garza (the Braves’ trade with the Cubs for Maholm seems to be working out)? Or maybe Josh Johnson?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they’ll call on both.

Comment From MetSox
With Pitch/fx, Im looking at Drew Smyly, is there a chance that the algorithm has troubles seeing the difference between a slider and a cutter?

Dave Cameron: Yep, that’s one of the known weak spots.

Comment From Gordo
In all of your time researching baseball, what’s been the single biggest “big picture” revelation to you (as opposed to a specific player being over/undervalued)?

Dave Cameron: It has to be DIPS theory, right? That’s the biggest research breakthrough of the last 20 years.

Comment From Chris
Would the Reds really trade for a CF when Hamilton is being groomed for it?

Dave Cameron: Hamilton seems unlikely to be a useful contributor in 2014.

Dave Cameron: 2013, rather.

Comment From Razor
Do you ever go to a ballgame and decide you’re not going to look for anything to write about? Or do you just enjoy your job so much that it doesn’t get in the way of your enjoyment of a game?

Dave Cameron: If I go to a game with friends, it’s often more of a social occasion. I don’t pay super close attention to what’s going on when I’m hanging out with people.

Comment From Monty
What’s been the problem with the Rays this year? Their position players have been pretty great, defense is solid, and pitching deep. They’re 27-24 with only a plus 15 run differential though…

Dave Cameron: Fernando Rodney.

Comment From One Mans Opinion
Peavy has an extra year on his deal, FWIW.

Dave Cameron: Yes, the 2/29 contract makes him more valuable than he would be as a rental. But I think Garza will still fetch a little more.

Comment From Brian
what do you think the return might be on a guy like F. Gutierrez?

Dave Cameron: A fringey non-prospect and some cash.

Comment From JH
Joey Votto’s had a pretty phenomenal run dating back to 2009, but he doesn’t seem like a good bet to accumulate traditional HOF counting stats given his fairly late start. How many more seasons does he need to keep up this level of performance before he’s got your vote-assuming he’s on a ballot when you get your first chance?

Dave Cameron: The generation of people who wouldn’t vote for Joey Votto won’t be voting for the HOF when he’s eligible.

Comment From Brad
As a Mets fan, should I be concerned with the number of innings Matt Harvey is on pace to amass?

Dave Cameron: They’ll shut him down at some point, I’m sure.

Comment From Brad
Why haven’t the Braves upgraded their bullpen yet? Prices too high this early?

Dave Cameron: Most teams aren’t willing to sell before the draft.

Comment From Tyler
How does fangraphs make money?

Dave Cameron: The Rangers paid us a handsome fee to ruin Dustin Ackley.

Comment From Thufir
IS there any way to set up a custom team for minor league players, so when you want to check your dynasty team stats, you don’t have to go player by player?

Dave Cameron: Yes, you can do that from the custom player list.

Comment From pr
Can you explain why you think Votto is about as good a hitter as Cabrera? Obviously he is great but Miggy’s power advantage seems to swing it in his favor in my mind, pretty clearly.

Dave Cameron: Then you overvalue power relative to OBP.

Comment From Greg
Is Scott Feldman more likely to be traded or extended?

Dave Cameron: Traded.

Comment From Professor xFIP
If you had to pick one player is the minors to build a team around who would it be?

Dave Cameron: Oscar Taveras. I’m going out on a limb.

Comment From Sadwick
Re Braves’ bullpen: I saw it suggested that because of the extra wildcard spot that fewer teams want to sell early, and it makes it hard to find parts that would have been available in past years, like bullpen arms. How much truth is there to that?

Dave Cameron: A good amount. Teams aren’t going to sell until they are clearly out of it, and the lower barrier to entry means that there aren’t many teams clearly out of it right now. 27 of the 30 MLB teams have winning percentages over .400.

Comment From RK
What is your guess for the date we see the first trade that is clearly a “sell” move?

Dave Cameron: June 23rd.

Comment From Chicago Mark
If a team thinks the Cubs will trade Garza at the deadline, why don’t they simply try to get him now? How much more would an extra 2+ months cost?

Dave Cameron: Cubs might be more inclined to wait and get more teams involved in the bidding.

Comment From Joe
Should the Royals look to move Shields? I know they won’t do it, but what kind of package could they get back? Could they get someone like Gausman or Lindor?

Dave Cameron: No, those guys aren’t getting traded.

Comment From Chone "Dont Call Me Shawn" Figgins
Is Didi Gregorius the best name in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Skye Bolt.

Comment From Prich
Phils- Based on their track record and your gut, what do you think they will do with Lee: 1) Swallow more salary for a better prospect, or 2) Give him away for less prospect value but more salary relief?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll end up eating part of the contract.

Comment From Jeb
Has FG ever tried to come up with economic values for different skills? For example, OBP>ISO, but perhaps ISO is cheaper on the market?

Dave Cameron: We haven’t put exact figures on it, but we’ve done that generally. Power is the most expensive commodity, defense the cheapest.

Comment From Worried About Harpers Knees
You’ve continually touted Harper over Trout, saying that Trout won’t age as well as he loses speed whereas Harper will continue to develop. That said, given what we’re seeing this year – Trout retaining his power and continuing to develop his approach at the plate, and Harper’s possible brittleness (bursitis at 2) – are you ready to sing a different tune yet?

Dave Cameron: Why would I stop thinking that Harper’s age 27 will be better than Trout’s age 27 season because of two months of performance in their age 20/21 seasons?

Comment From Tom
Do you know anything about the NF (nasty factor) measurement of each pitch on MLB Gameday screen? I presume it is some combination of velocity, location and movement. Is this something worth keeping an eye on when trying to judge a pitcher’s performance? If so, can we get it tracked on Fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: It’s an MLBAM stat, so no, it won’t appear on FG. And no, I don’t think it’s useful.

Comment From Tyler
Bigger albatross from last offseason: B.J. Upton or Josh Hamilton contract?

Dave Cameron: Hamilton.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Rock Shoulders

Dave Cameron: Also a strong contender.

Comment From Sadwick
Do you think the Phillies could try to pull a Vernon Wells style contract dump with Howard, or is that contract heavier than depleted Uranium at this point?

Dave Cameron: I can’t imagine anyone would take Howard at this point. He’s a DH with knee problems who can’t hit.

Comment From Izzy
RE: Votto, by the time most active players are retired, will the voters be voting much the same as the saber crowd?

Dave Cameron: If we assume Votto has another 10 years before he retires, then the five year waiting period, you’re looking at 15 years before he’s eligible for the HOF, and 30 before he’s off the ballot. Yes, the people voting by the time he’s up for induction will be much more open to weighing things like OBP than the current crop of voters.

Comment From Chicago Mark
I have a dual question on Votto and obp. Shouldn’t the Reds simply bat Votto higher in the lineup and get A. more ab’s from him and B. more rbi hitters behind him more often? I think that sound sright. Maybe 1 question…two parts.

Dave Cameron: Yes, Votto should probably hit second.

Comment From Teeger
Do you believe that some players thrive in a low pressure environment?

Dave Cameron: Sure. And those players wash out after they can’t handle high school baseball.

Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s it for me today. I’ll be back next Wednesday, and Eno will be here to answer all of your fantasy questions tomorrow.