FG on Fox: Ambushing First Pitch Fastballs
Good things happen when batters swing at the first pitch of at bat, as they boast a .336 average and .526 slugging percentage on the first pitch this year. Like I said, good things happen when you swing at — and more importantly, make contact with — the first pitch, though of course, this data doesn’t count all the first pitch swings that resulted in fouls or whiffs. Still, swinging early can lead to very good results.
Sometimes called “ambushing” the pitcher, first pitch swings can be even more valuable during the postseason, as hitters and pitchers become more familiar with the patterns and traits of the opposition. Recent history informs pitch decisions as starters face the same team twice or even three times during a seven game series, and for pitchers, familiarity really does breed contempt.
On the whole, batters are more and more willing to swing at the first pitch in October. During the regular season, batters offered at the first pitch 27.4% of the time. Early in the 2014 playoff season, that number is on the rise. Through the division rounds, batters came out hacking more than 32% of the time, using Pitchf/x data made available by Baseball Savant.
Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals stands out as one of the most unlikely hitters to approach his plate appearances this way, but also one of the most successful in these playoffs. As shown at Fangraphs last week, Carpenter hit two home runs and a double on the first pitch against the Dodgers, flummoxing Clayton Kershaw and subverting existing scouting reports on the patient All Star infielder.
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Drew used to write about baseball and other things at theScore but now he writes here. Follow him on twitter @DrewGROF
when batters swing at the first pitch AND PUT IT IN PLAY. You address that the pitch might be missed or fouled, but then exclude those results from the study.
I argue that you should not do that – the batter sees the pitch in flight and must make a decision whether to swing or not. It’s that branch in the decision tree that creates the set of opportunities, and all results of “Swing” should be analyzed to judge the wiseness and effectiveness of that decision.
why? the article isn’t concerned with whether swinging is a good decision or not, only establishing that it happens more often in the postseason and exploring some reasons for why.