Furcal En Fuego

by
May 6, 2008

With the hot starts of Chase Utley, Derrek Lee, and even Nate McLouth, Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal has posted tremendous numbers seemingly under the radar. Entering last night, Furcal had the 8th best OPS, 4th best OBP, and ranked behind just Utley and Chipper Jones in Runs Created. Even though we have only played one month, Furcal currently sports a slash line of .369/.453/.585, and has been a major force behind the Dodgers current surge.

What initially strikes me as odd is how he has virtually posted the same LD/GB/FB percentages as last year. In 2007 it was 18.7/49.7/31.6; this year it is currently 18.5/50.9/30.6. Based on his frequency of line drives his xBABIP is around the .300-.310 mark. While it met expectations at .298 last year, it is almost one-hundred points higher so far at .396.

Though his strikeout rate has stayed the same he is walking over four percent more often. In turn, he is seeing 3.95 pitches per plate appearance, more than the 3.69 in 2007 and 3.84 in 2006.

Luckily for Fangraphs fans, David recently added the swing data, which adds new avenues of exploration. Furcal is swinging at three percent less pitches outside of the zone, relative to last season, but is making contact three percent more often. His selectivity can be seen on an overall level, too, as he is swinging about five percent less at pitches inside the strike zone while maintaining his contact rate from a year ago; pitchers have also been throwing more in the zone to him.

Has something clicked? Will Furcal establish a new level of production? The signs tend to suggest he will not be this productive all season but, if he can remain selective and wait for “his pitch,” he may be able to sustain these contact rates.

While his likely regression will prevent him from an OPS over 1.000 come September it does not mean his season cannot continue to be stellar. He has been an integral part of a Dodgers team that has caught fire and it will be very interesting to see what happens to the success of the team if and when his flame begins to flicker.

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Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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dan
17 years ago

Last year his production also suffered from a lingering ankle injury that happened in spring training.

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