Game of the Week: 5/25-5/31
One of the issues that arises when writing a weekly feature like this is how the more recent games tend to stand out. I have made a conscious effort to make notes about potential games of the week each day but it seems that the winners so far have all gravitated towards the weekend. Not this week, however, when the top game occurred on Monday, Memorial Day, and left little doubt in my mind about its status as the recipient of this week’s honor. On Monday, the Indians hosted the Rays and made sure their home turf went unsoiled.
The Rays were cruising to a victory until the end of the game, when the road apparently became the Nitro rollercoaster at Six Flags and the Indians saw their win expectancy rise from the ashes and soar upwards. How did this happen? Ask Grant Balfour, Dale Thayer, Randy Choate and Jason Isringhausen, all of whom managed to squander a 10-2 lead held by the Rays as the eighth inning began.
Fausto Carmona continued to convince people his solid 2007 was nothing more than a fluke by surrendering five runs in the second inning, lasting just 1.1 frames. Jensen Lewis relieved Carmona but did not provide fans of the Tribe any relief, giving up a two-run jimmy-jack to Gabe Gross in the third inning. A Carlos Pena single, Ben Zobrist double, and Dioner Navarro hit by pitch with the bases loaded later, the Rays led 10-0 in the fourth inning.
Ryan Garko launched a two-run homer in the bottom of the inning, and a whole lot of nothing would transpire until the eighth. Dale Thayer entered the game and was promptly greeted by three straight singles off the bats of Shin-Soo Choo, Mark DeRosa, and Ryan Garko. With the bases loaded and nobody out, the Indians win expectancy remained a miniscule 1.9%. Matt LaPorta grounded into a double play, scoring Choo but decreasing their likelihood of winning to 0.3%. Ben Francisco singled in DeRosa before the inning ended, leaving the score at 10-4 in favor of the Rays, entering the ninth.
Jeremy Sowers made it through the top half of the inning unharmed and then the fun began. Or, for Rays fans, then the heartburn began. Thayer, still in the game, walked Grady Sizemore before inducing a flyout from Victor Martinez. Jhonny Peralta followed with a single, advancing Sizemore to second base. Randy Choate relieved Thayer, and despite getting Choo to ground the ball to shortstop, a fielders choice and error later, the score was 10-5 with two runners on and one out. Grant Balfour entered the game and got DeRosa to line out to third, leaving the Indians with a 0.7% win expectancy.
You all probably know where this is going. Despite a win expectancy below 1%, with two outs, the Indians managed to plate six more runners and win the contest. Following DeRosa, Garko hit his second homer of the game, a three-run blast off of Balfour, bringing the score to 10-8. Still, with two outs, the Indians were only considered to have a 1.7% chance of winning. After walking Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Maddon turned to Isringhausen.
Izzy walked Ben Francisco and Jamey Carroll to load the bases, and then perhaps in the hope of staying consistent, walked Grady Sizemore. 10-9, 28% chance of winning. Victor Martinez then singled two runners in the Indians put the final touches on a monumental comeback. Without question, the top game last week.
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
Called it!