Generating Statistical Comps for First-Round College Hitters
Last week, I published KATOH projections for the players who were drafted out of college in this year’s amateur draft*. As much as I love my projections, they only can only tell you so much about a player. Knowing a player’s projected WAR over a specified period is interesting, but it’s only one number. It simply tells you where a player falls on a spectrum of “good” and “bad.” It tells you nothing about how that player might accumulate those wins, or what he might look like doing it.
*Day one here, day two here, and day three here.
To put some faces to some of the hitters drafted in the first round, I generated some statistical comps using weighted Mahalanobis Distance calculations to college players since 2002. This analysis considers offensive statistics only, so the comps have not been filtered at all by position. The WAR columns refer to that player’s WAR through age 27.
You may notice that Mariners first-round pick Kyle Lewis isn’t included here. Lewis played in a non-elite conference, which has produced very few big leaguers historically. This made generating a KATOH-style projection for him less than straightforward.
*****
2. Nick Senzel, IF, Cincinnati
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 2.0
| Rank | Player | Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
| 1 | Scott McClanahan | 1.5 | No MLB |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | 1.4 | 8.8 |
| 3 | Russ Adams | 1.7 | -0.5 |
| 4 | Stephen Cardullo | 1.3 | No MLB |
| 5 | Shane Robinson | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 6 | Ryan Braun | 1.1 | 23.0 |
| 7 | Tyler Colvin | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 8 | Mike Baxter | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 9 | Josh Alley | 2.4 | No MLB |
| 10 | Ryan Schimpf | 1.4 | No MLB |
*****
5. Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.2
| Rank | Player | WAR | Actual.WAR |
| 1 | Adam Greenberg | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Jon Jay | 0.6 | 7.0 |
| 3 | Blake Tekotte | 1.1 | -0.6 |
| 4 | Charlie Blackmon | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5 | Josh Alley | 0.6 | No MLB |
| 6 | John Shelby | 1.5 | No MLB |
| 7 | Mike Bianucci | 0.9 | No MLB |
| 8 | Josh Alley | 2.4 | No MLB |
| 9 | Jake Dugger | 0.6 | No MLB |
| 10 | Joseph Sanders | 0.6 | No MLB |
*****
10. Zack Collins, C/1B, Chicago (AL)
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.8
| Rank | Player | WAR | Actual.WAR |
| 1 | Carlos Ramirez | 0.7 | No MLB |
| 2 | Cord Phelps | 0.8 | -1.4 |
| 3 | Brian Jeroloman | 1.1 | No MLB |
| 4 | Mark Wright | 0.4 | No MLB |
| 5 | Zac Welch | 0.4 | No MLB |
| 6 | Mike Bianucci | 0.9 | No MLB |
| 7 | Matthew Clark | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| 8 | Pedro Alvarez | 0.5 | 5.9 |
| 9 | Cody Brown | 0.4 | No MLB |
| 10 | Clay Harris | 0.4 | No MLB |
*****
16. Matt Thaiss, C, Angels
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.3
| Rank | Player | WAR | Actual.WAR |
| 1 | Aaron Sobieraj | 1.3 | No MLB |
| 2 | Ryan Garko | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 3 | Cord Phelps | 0.8 | -1.4 |
| 4 | Jay Cox | 1.4 | No MLB |
| 5 | Brian Horwitz | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Chase Headley | 2.9 | 7.8 |
| 7 | Conor Jackson | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| 8 | Ryan Shealy | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 9 | Jack Rye | 1.8 | No MLB |
| 10 | Travis Buck | 1.6 | 2.7 |
*****
22. Will Craig, 1B/3B, Pittsburgh
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.7
| Rank | Player | Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
| 1 | Pedro Alvarez | 0.5 | 5.9 |
| 2 | Mark Wright | 0.4 | No MLB |
| 3 | Zac Welch | 0.4 | No MLB |
| 4 | Steven Liddle | 0.3 | No MLB |
| 5 | Landon Powell | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| 6 | Mike Bianucci | 0.9 | No MLB |
| 7 | Cody Brown | 0.4 | No MLB |
| 8 | Clay Harris | 0.4 | No MLB |
| 9 | Cord Phelps | 0.8 | -1.4 |
| 10 | Matthew Clark | 0.7 | -0.2 |
*****
32. Will Smith, C, Los Angeles (NL)
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.1
| Rank | Player | Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
| 1 | Kyle Werman | 0.0 | No MLB |
| 2 | Nate Freiman | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Garrett Gore | 0.1 | No MLB |
| 4 | Daniel Lima | 0.2 | No MLB |
| 5 | Tim Henry | 0.1 | No MLB |
| 6 | Ryan Strauss | 0.1 | No MLB |
| 7 | Seth Williams | 0.3 | No MLB |
| 8 | Justin Riley | 0.1 | No MLB |
| 9 | Jonathan Tucker | 0.1 | No MLB |
| 10 | Chad Prosser | 0.1 | No MLB |
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
By the way, Ryan Schimpf debuted yesterday for the Padres