Hot, Hot Howard

by
May 26, 2008

For most of the season all eyes directed towards the Phillies offense have been focused on Chase Utley. And why not? After all, Chase can be found in the top five or top ten in just about every offensive category in the National League. Recently, though, Utley has hit a coldspell, posting a .203/.294/.356 slash line in his last sixteen games. Luckily for the Phillies, others have stepped up and filled the void.

My brother, who covers the Phillies at Phanatic Phollow Up, wrote yesterday about how not just one but many Phillies hitters are stepping up at this juncture. In his first 19 games, Shane Victorino had a .626 OPS; in his last 19 games it has been .773, raising his season OPS to .703. Geoff Jenkins had a .237/.284/.329 slash line through 24 games; in his last 21 it has been .339/.358/.468. Even Pedro Feliz is at a .304/.333/.478 clip over his last 12 games.

Of all the players stepping up, none is more satisfying to Phillies fans than Ryan Howard. Since May 7th, Howard has played 18 games, with a .264/.321/.681 slash line, 4 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR and 18 RBI. On the season he has 14 HR, coming in just behind Lance Berkman, Dan Uggla, and teammate Utley. Howard is still striking out, 28 K in these 18 games, but the extra base hits, about half of which have been to the opposite field, are definitely a promising sign.

He puts about one-third of his flyballs into the stands and hits a lot of balls hard, as evidenced by his ~20% line drives. Despite lacking anything resembling speed, Howard has had very high BABIPs for his career; .375 in 2004, .358 in 2005, .363 in 2006, .336 in 2007. This year, however, it is only .245. This should regress to his mean as the season progresses meaning Howard could, and probably will, defy his critics by having what ends up as a good season.

The strikeouts are definitely a problem but, unlike in April, when he was just striking out, now he is striking out and hitting the ball hard, often out of the stadium.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.




 

Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

1 Comment
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Mark Runsvold
17 years ago

I just wrote something about Howard along these same lines. He’s turning things around and will have a very good season while possibly setting the single-season strikeout record.

Granted I’m not a scout and haven’t played competitive baseball at a level above Little League, but Howard hit a double to left off of Roy Oswalt the other day of a sort I don’t think I’ve ever seen. It was a laser, like a blue laser. You just don’t see balls hit that hard the other way. I’m sure any children in the lower seats were frightened by it.

Point is, he’s a really fascinating hitter. Nobody is quite like him. I’ve always gotten the sense that if Howard were ever to get dialed in for a full season he could hit 80 homers without much trouble.

0