Astros Acquire Ken Giles, Underrated Relief Ace
Since the Astros bullpen blew a 6-2 lead in Game 4 of the ALDS, it’s been widely expected that they were going to make moves to reinforce their relief corps this winter. After a few months of kicking around various options, the team today acquired a potentially dominating new closer.
Told #Astros trading pitchers Vince Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer and Brian Fisher to Phillies for closer Ken Giles, pending physicals.
— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) December 10, 2015
A fourth player is headed to Phillies in Giles deal.
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) December 10, 2015
Giles might not yet have the household name of an elite relief ace, but over the last couple of years, he’s absolutely pitched like one.
| Name | IP | BB% | K% | GB% | HR/FB | LOB% | BABIP | ERA- | FIP- | xFIP- | WAR | RA9-WAR |
| Andrew Miller | 124 | 8% | 42% | 48% | 11% | 81% | 0.252 | 49 | 46 | 46 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 120 | 12% | 46% | 39% | 5% | 84% | 0.316 | 46 | 37 | 50 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Dellin Betances | 174 | 10% | 40% | 47% | 9% | 88% | 0.248 | 36 | 50 | 54 | 5.6 | 7.5 |
| Kenley Jansen | 117 | 6% | 39% | 35% | 10% | 82% | 0.312 | 72 | 54 | 55 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| David Robertson | 127 | 7% | 36% | 40% | 15% | 72% | 0.280 | 81 | 64 | 56 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| Zach Britton | 142 | 7% | 26% | 77% | 18% | 82% | 0.256 | 44 | 65 | 60 | 3.2 | 5.5 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 121 | 10% | 38% | 44% | 9% | 81% | 0.256 | 57 | 60 | 62 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Brett Cecil | 107 | 9% | 33% | 53% | 9% | 79% | 0.312 | 65 | 59 | 63 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Wade Davis | 139 | 8% | 35% | 43% | 3% | 90% | 0.231 | 25 | 44 | 63 | 5.0 | 7.2 |
| Ken Giles | 115 | 8% | 33% | 45% | 3% | 78% | 0.297 | 40 | 47 | 69 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
Giles’ insanely low home-run rate is unlikely to last, but even with regression there, the strikeout numbers allow him to profile as a high-end closer. He’s not quite Craig Kimbrel, but he’s in that mold, and acquiring Kimbrel-lite isn’t so bad, especially when you are picking up five years of team control, though it should be worth noting that arbitration pays closers handsomely, and so he might not be a significant value for all five of those years if his salaries escalate quickly.
Still, this is a non-rental elite reliever, the kind of guy who can dramatically improve the Astros bullpen, and the type of pitcher who has seen his stock improve dramatically this winter. To land Giles, the team had to give up a valuable pitching prospect in Vincent Velasquez — who could profile better in relief himself, and might end up as a dominating relief ace himself if he can stay healthy — and former first-round pick Derek Fisher, along with a couple of other parts. The trade makes plenty of sense for the Phillies, who don’t need to be stockpiling relievers while they rebuild, but also gives the Astros quite a bit more certainty in 2016.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
The San Antonio Spurs are relieved that Derek Fisher is no longer playing for one of the other Texas teams.
He does get to coach the next Nowitzki, however.
My only fangraphs community article was comparing Giles and Kimbrel. He’s fantastic, and will be missed in Philly.
http://www.fangraphs.com/community/2014-ken-giles-2011-craig-kimbrels-long-lost-brother/
There was some concern early on last year with Giles about significant diminished velocity. It came back after a while though. Might be nothing, might be something.
Trading from a position of strength.
Jeff Luhnow knows what to do.
Astros secretly re-signed Carter so they could trade him to Philly.
Bring back RAJ, at least he held out for too much.
I am still here.
RAJ did just fine restocking the system in the end.
If you think that was RAJ’s doing, then you had an epic MacPhail.
I’m sure MacPhail was looking over his shoulder and approving things, but yes – it was mostly RAJ’s doing, IMO.
I came here hoping to see the Beanegraphs spin on the Lawrie trade.
This is a solid return for a guy like Giles. I will miss him and that strange little crouch thing he did on the mound between pitches, but this ultimately is for the best.
So does Velasquez alone have about as much (or more?) surplus value as Giles?
The Phillies got the better side of this deal if we stack up prospect value and surplus projections and mention the “other parts”, no?
Using Steamer projections, aging curve calcs, and prospect valuation charts, Phillies probably win by a bit. That said, steamer is regressing away almost 33% of Giles’s value that scouting may contradict shouldn’t happen. VV is also a greater injury risk.
That said, I still think Phillies will win WAR over long haul. Astros, in my estimation, look to be in a good spot for contending for playoffs next few years. Astros will be able to get Giles into more playoff innings than VV if they make a couple over next 5 years. Just not sure if it wise to bank on increased usage in playoffs.
Future value always comes with large error bars, larger the further out that future is. This is a reasonable trade for both sides, the kind a team moving out of the rebuilding phase should make with a team moving into it (however belatedly).
The trade totally changes now that Appel was included IMO.