Astros Close to Acquiring Evan Gattis for Notable Prospects
The Braves housecleaning reportedly continued today, with the team nearing a deal that would ship sometimes-catcher Evan Gattis to Houston in exchange for prospects Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman. The quick overview of the players going both directions.
Gattis is a 28 year old with top shelf power, but limited skills beyond that, as he doesn’t control the strike zone particularly well and is somewhat limited defensively; the metrics on him behind the plate are okay, but scouts have long projected him to be a first baseman or designated hitter, and the Braves certainly didn’t see him as a long-term option behind the plate. Best case scenario, he’s probably Mike Napoli with fewer walks, which is a pretty nice player but not quite a star. And with the Astros already having a crowded catching situation, he may end up getting most of his playing time at first base or left field, potentially limiting his value a bit.
Interestingly, both Steamer and ZIPS are down on Gattis, projecting him to be just a slightly above average hitter in 2015, which would make him something more like Mark Trumbo instead of Mike Napoli. That said, Gattis had an unusual career path, and perhaps his age shouldn’t be held against him quite as much as the forecasting systems think; he may be a “young” 28 in terms of baseball development. This is one case where I’d probably be comfortable taking the over on the projected offensive line.
To acquire Gattis, the Astros gave up their #5, #7, and #21 prospects according to Kiley McDaniel’s rankings. Here is what he wrote about the three.
Rio Ruiz:
Ruiz came to the Astros for an over slot $1.85 million with the money they saved going under slot on Correa as the #1 overall pick in 2012. Ruiz slipped to the 4th round after being in the top 50 pick discussion early in the spring due to a blood clot in his neck that prematurely ended his season. He was also a standout quarterback in high school which shows with his above average arm strength, but the 6’2/215 lefty hitter isn’t a traditionally great athlete.
Ruiz is a 40 runner with fringy range that limits his defensive upside, though it looks right now like he’ll be able to stay at the hot corner, with the above average raw power to profile. The carrying tool is the bat and Ruiz took a step forward statistically in 2014, but some scouts would like to see him do it outside of the Cal League before throwing a 60 on his hit tool (though some already put a 60 on it). Between his deep hand load, the power not showing up completely in games yet and the lack of plus bat speed, scouts still have offensive questions; Ruiz’s limited pre-draft exposure also contributes to the prevalence of the conservative opinions.
Ruiz has good power to the opposite field in games already, which is often a harbinger of home run numbers spiking down the road. The Astros aren’t too concerned about the defensive questions as Ruiz is a hard worker that spends more time on defense than most prospects with a bat-first profile. While his range is fringy, his hands are sure and much of Ruiz’s defensive troubles come not on range-type plays coming in or moving to either side, but flubbing routine plays, sailing easy throws or staying back too long and letting the ball play him. If he can’t stay at 3B, the only other fit is 1B, so it’s important for his value that Ruiz stay at the hot corner.
Mike Foltynewicz:
Foltynewicz has some similarities to McCullers but with more arm speed, hitting 100 mph quite often, but also with more severe feel issues. Foltynewicz got an 18.2 inning taste of the big leagues late in 2014 and started 18 of his 21 minor league appearances, but is far from a finished product. He sits 95-98 mph as a starter with a curveball that flashes plus sometimes, but his lack of command of the pitch makes it fringy to average most of the time.
Foltynewicz has thrown enough innings and has the lack of feel and type of delivery that you can no longer project a pitch to be a future 60 when you only see it once or twice per start. He also has an average changeup, so the raw stuff is here to start but the command projects for 45 at best due to the lack of feel; his delivery isn’t really that bad, though. One scout saw “brutal” body language in a poor Triple-A start and Astros execs conceded Foltynewicz may not have been ready for a big league look in 2014.
Andrew Thurman:
Thurman’s velocity is a moving target that dictates his prospect status: 88-91 until a spike late in a summer on the Cape to 91-94, tailing off before the Astros took him at the top of the 2nd round in 2013 as a pitchability back-end starter type. Then, in 2014 Spring Training, he hit 97 mph and sat 91-95 during the season, but the new-found velocity caused command issues for his 50 slider and 55 changeup. If he can get back to throwing strikes with solid-average stuff, he could move quickly, but adjustments are needed.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Not sure what they are doing here? Why grab a 28 year old DH when they have no shot at the division and have Carter at DH? Giving up an 80 fastball guy and Ruiz seems like a bit much for their situation.
I’d bet they see him as someone else they can flip at the deadline.
Maybe, but are they going to flip him for more than what they just paid? (I guess if they’re looking to compete in 2016, and they want someone who’s already in MLB?)
I don’t see it – why send three decent prospects away for someone you’ll flip later on for… prospects?
Gattis is only $500k per year and they have control of him until 2019, so it’s not a single-year move.
He can play OF, 1B, C and, if they don’t want his defense for a game, DH.
The Astros’ power potential keeps picking up, and they play in a park where there’s utility in it — Springer, Singleton, Castro, Lowrie (he hit 16 in 387 PAs in ’12), Carter, Gattis are all guys that could pop 20+ this year in a league where there’s minimum power utility.
Ruiz is more of the wild card; Folty’s upside has quickly transitioned to RP and Thurman likely ends up in that role in a best case scenario.
Not to say that the Astros are suddenly contenders or even a .500 team yet, but you don’t have a lot of teams flashing six guys who hit 20 HRs in today’s MLB.
Gattis has four years of team control left. Dexter Fowler has one. Players like Dexter Fowler and Jason Castro (depending on how the Astros feel about their ability to improve Gattis’ catching) both hold value as trade bait. I argue that giving up some prospects to land a long term piece that will let the Astros sell a player such as Fowler or Jason Castro for prospects or another piece in return is a very intelligent move..
In a situation where they no longer wish to own stocks in the players they traded away, bringing another HR hitter may be a way to cull favor with the fans. Everyone digs the long ball.
they just acquired a guy who is a very good career hitter (117 wRC+).
The Astros won’t be in ‘rebuild’ mode forever, despite what the media seems to think.
He slots in great at 1B if you don’t believe Jon Singleton is going to improve.
If Gattis has to play the outfield somewhere, there may not be a better place for him than Minute Maid Park. The Crawford Boxes in left will help hide his lack of range and boost his production to his pull side.