Diamondbacks Sign Zack Greinke, NL West Gets More Interesting
Tonight, we saw the internet trolled by a fake account saying that Zack Greinke had signed with the Giants. Just when those foolish enough to fall for the troll (note: this includes me) were calming down, real reporters announced that Greinke had in fact signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The marvelous Ken Rosenthal has the deal at six years, $206 million, which would be a record for pitching average annual value (though he notes that some of the money may be deferred).
While this might not be truly astounding, as the Dbacks have indicated a desire to land an ace this offseason and shown a particular interest in Greinke, it’s still a little unexpected. The signing brings the Dbacks a modicum of respectability, and opens up the possibility that the 2016 National League West will be more than the two-horse race it’s been in recent years.
Through much of Friday, the Dbacks starting rotation depth chart looked like this:
SP Diamondbacks
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Corbin | 187.0 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | .301 | 73.8 % | 3.47 | 3.65 | 3.0 |
Rubby de la Rosa | 174.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | .301 | 71.4 % | 4.08 | 4.14 | 1.7 |
Robbie Ray | 148.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .299 | 72.6 % | 3.88 | 3.95 | 1.8 |
Chase Anderson | 137.0 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | .299 | 72.9 % | 3.95 | 4.15 | 1.4 |
Archie Bradley | 122.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | .302 | 70.4 % | 4.32 | 4.31 | 1.0 |
Zachary Godley | 100.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | .301 | 70.5 % | 4.40 | 4.43 | 0.7 |
Josh Collmenter | 47.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | .295 | 73.8 % | 4.15 | 4.63 | 0.2 |
Andrew Schugel | 28.0 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | .302 | 70.7 % | 4.32 | 4.44 | 0.2 |
Total | 943.0 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | .300 | 72.1 % | 3.98 | 4.10 | 9.9 |
That 9.9 WAR wasn’t really blowing anyone’s skirt up. Let’s add Greinke to the mix:
SP Diamondbacks
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Greinke | 222.0 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | .301 | 75.3 % | 3.18 | 3.39 | 4.2 |
Patrick Corbin | 187.0 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | .301 | 73.8 % | 3.47 | 3.65 | 3.0 |
Rubby de la Rosa | 145.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | .301 | 71.4 % | 4.08 | 4.14 | 1.5 |
Robbie Ray | 139.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .299 | 72.6 % | 3.88 | 3.95 | 1.7 |
Chase Anderson | 119.0 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | .299 | 72.9 % | 3.95 | 4.15 | 1.2 |
Archie Bradley | 75.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | .302 | 70.4 % | 4.32 | 4.31 | 0.6 |
Zachary Godley | 27.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | .301 | 70.5 % | 4.40 | 4.43 | 0.2 |
Josh Collmenter | 28.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | .295 | 73.8 % | 4.15 | 4.63 | 0.1 |
Andrew Schugel | 28.0 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | .302 | 70.7 % | 4.32 | 4.44 | 0.2 |
Total | 970.0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | .300 | 73.0 % | 3.75 | 3.89 | 12.6 |
Let’s be clear — adding Greinke to the mix doesn’t instantly make the Dbacks World Series favorites, but they’ve leapfrogged from the bottom of the starting pitching pile into the middle of the pack. Greinke’s inclusion represents a projected upgrade of 2.7 WAR, as the majority of the innings that he will be taking were from near-replacement-level pitchers. (Also, this is just a quick and dirty projection of how the innings for the rest of the staff will shake out. It might not be 100% accurate, but you get the idea — some incumbents not named Patrick Corbin will see fewer innings next season.)
Before, Arizona was in a dead heat with the Marlins for the 24th-best projected rotation. Now, they’re in a dead heat for 14th overall with the Rangers and Mariners, and eighth in the NL. That’s a lot better than where they were 24 hours ago.
Dave delved into why Greinke is worth $200 million earlier today, and we’ll undoubtedly have more on this deal in the coming days, but Dbacks fans can be elated tonight. The Dbacks had to give up the 13th pick in the coming draft to net Greinke, but that is a small price to pay for landing one of the top pitchers in the game. And again, he’s not just good at pitching. As Dave mentioned and as Jeff has covered before, he is good at hitting. Oh, and fielding, too.
Not everyone is a big fan of the second wild card, and I count myself in the camp of those who are critical of it. But one of the effects of adding a second wild card is that the barrier to playoff entry is lower than it was in the past. With Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke, and A.J. Pollock leading the way, and good supporting players like Ender Inciarte, David Peralta, Jake Lamb and Corbin, the Dbacks as contenders is no longer far fetched. As August noted earlier this week, the Dbacks have shown the ability to hang around the .500 mark. Now, they may show the ability to get to 85-88 wins, and if they can, the NL West is going to be really fun to watch.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Zack really loves the new uniforms.