Diamondbacks Sign Zack Greinke, NL West Gets More Interesting

Tonight, we saw the internet trolled by a fake account saying that Zack Greinke had signed with the Giants. Just when those foolish enough to fall for the troll (note: this includes me) were calming down, real reporters announced that Greinke had in fact signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The marvelous Ken Rosenthal has the deal at six years, $206 million, which would be a record for pitching average annual value (though he notes that some of the money may be deferred).

While this might not be truly astounding, as the Dbacks have indicated a desire to land an ace this offseason and shown a particular interest in Greinke, it’s still a little unexpected. The signing brings the Dbacks a modicum of respectability, and opens up the possibility that the 2016 National League West will be more than the two-horse race it’s been in recent years.

Through much of Friday, the Dbacks starting rotation depth chart looked like this:

SP Diamondbacks


Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR
Patrick Corbin 187.0 7.9 2.3 1.0 .301 73.8 % 3.47 3.65 3.0
Rubby de la Rosa 174.0 7.5 3.1 1.1 .301 71.4 % 4.08 4.14 1.7
Robbie Ray 148.0 8.8 3.7 1.0 .299 72.6 % 3.88 3.95 1.8
Chase Anderson 137.0 7.4 2.6 1.2 .299 72.9 % 3.95 4.15 1.4
Archie Bradley 122.0 7.6 4.1 0.9 .302 70.4 % 4.32 4.31 1.0
Zachary Godley 100.0 7.2 3.6 1.1 .301 70.5 % 4.40 4.43 0.7
Josh Collmenter 47.0 5.8 2.2 1.4 .295 73.8 % 4.15 4.63 0.2
Andrew Schugel 28.0 6.1 3.0 1.1 .302 70.7 % 4.32 4.44 0.2
Total 943.0 7.6 3.1 1.0 .300 72.1 % 3.98 4.10 9.9

That 9.9 WAR wasn’t really blowing anyone’s skirt up. Let’s add Greinke to the mix:

SP Diamondbacks

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR
Zack Greinke 222.0 8.2 2.0 0.9 .301 75.3 % 3.18 3.39 4.2
Patrick Corbin 187.0 7.9 2.3 1.0 .301 73.8 % 3.47 3.65 3.0
Rubby de la Rosa 145.0 7.5 3.1 1.1 .301 71.4 % 4.08 4.14 1.5
Robbie Ray 139.0 8.8 3.7 1.0 .299 72.6 % 3.88 3.95 1.7
Chase Anderson 119.0 7.4 2.6 1.2 .299 72.9 % 3.95 4.15 1.2
Archie Bradley 75.0 7.6 4.1 0.9 .302 70.4 % 4.32 4.31 0.6
Zachary Godley 27.0 7.2 3.6 1.1 .301 70.5 % 4.40 4.43 0.2
Josh Collmenter 28.0 5.8 2.2 1.4 .295 73.8 % 4.15 4.63 0.1
Andrew Schugel 28.0 6.1 3.0 1.1 .302 70.7 % 4.32 4.44 0.2
Total 970.0 7.8 2.8 1.0 .300 73.0 % 3.75 3.89 12.6

Let’s be clear — adding Greinke to the mix doesn’t instantly make the Dbacks World Series favorites, but they’ve leapfrogged from the bottom of the starting pitching pile into the middle of the pack. Greinke’s inclusion represents a projected upgrade of 2.7 WAR, as the majority of the innings that he will be taking were from near-replacement-level pitchers. (Also, this is just a quick and dirty projection of how the innings for the rest of the staff will shake out. It might not be 100% accurate, but you get the idea — some incumbents not named Patrick Corbin will see fewer innings next season.)

Before, Arizona was in a dead heat with the Marlins for the 24th-best projected rotation. Now, they’re in a dead heat for 14th overall with the Rangers and Mariners, and eighth in the NL. That’s a lot better than where they were 24 hours ago.

Dave delved into why Greinke is worth $200 million earlier today, and we’ll undoubtedly have more on this deal in the coming days, but Dbacks fans can be elated tonight. The Dbacks had to give up the 13th pick in the coming draft to net Greinke, but that is a small price to pay for landing one of the top pitchers in the game. And again, he’s not just good at pitching. As Dave mentioned and as Jeff has covered before, he is good at hitting. Oh, and fielding, too.

Not everyone is a big fan of the second wild card, and I count myself in the camp of those who are critical of it. But one of the effects of adding a second wild card is that the barrier to playoff entry is lower than it was in the past. With Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke, and A.J. Pollock leading the way, and good supporting players like Ender Inciarte, David Peralta, Jake Lamb and Corbin, the Dbacks as contenders is no longer far fetched. As August noted earlier this week, the Dbacks have shown the ability to hang around the .500 mark. Now, they may show the ability to get to 85-88 wins, and if they can, the NL West is going to be really fun to watch.





Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.

45 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Tony La Russa
10 years ago

Zack really loves the new uniforms.