FAN Projection Targets: Five Notable Sophomore Hitters
Earlier this week, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.
Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:
Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.
Now, here are five players for the reader’s consideration — all hitters who exhausted their rookie eligibility in 2014. Note: listed age is for 2015.
Player: Kevin Kiermaier, 25, OF (Profile)
2014 Line: 364 PA, .263/.315/.450, 6.3% BB, 19.5% K, 119 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: After recording zero plate appearances and just a lone defensive inning with Tampa Bay in 2013, made considerably larger contribution last season. Produced 3.8 WAR in 2014, nearly half of that a product of his fielding. Expected to play strong half of right-field platoon in 2015.
Player: Chris Owings, 23, SS (Profile)
2014 Line: 332 PA, .261/.300/.406, 4.8% BB, 20.2% K, 92 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: More or less split shortstop duties with Didi Gregorious in 2014, producing slightly below-average offensive line, but strong defensive numbers based on both positional adjustment and runs saved. Questionable, following shoulder surgery, for beginning of spring training. Expected to start at short in 2015 following trade of Gregorious to Yankees.
Player: Joe Panik, 2B, 24 (Profile)
2014 Line: 287 PA, .305/.343/.368, 5.6% BB, 11.5% K, 107 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Considered a stretch originally as first-round pick due to limited power and range at shortstop. Basically replicated minor-league numbers at major-league level following late-June promotion to Giants. Enters season as probable starter at second base.
Player: David Peralta, 27, OF (Profile)
2014 Line: 348 PA, .286/.320/.450, 4.6% BB, 17.2% K, 110 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Signed originally by Cardinals out of Venezuela in 2004, but converted from pitcher to outfielder years later in independent leagues. Reached majors last year in that capacity, making 80 starts for D-backs. Probably opening-day left fielder for club in 2015.
Player: Jose Ramirez, 22, SS (Profile)
2014 Line: 266 PA, .262/.300/.346, 4.9% BB, 13.2% K, 85 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Parlayed strong contact skills and at least passable shortstop defense into 1.8 WAR last season — mostly following departure of Asdrubal Cabrera to Washington via trade. Likely to begin 2015 as starter at short, although presence of prospect Francisco Lindor in high minors — plus Jason Kipnis at second base — creates logjam for club in middle infield.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I sometimes wonder if Jose Ramirez is the type of player that might be the next market inefficiency. His skill set (good contact, very little power, some speed, good but not great defense) may be more valuable than arbitrators are likely to see. These kinds of decent but not superstar players might be considerably cheaper through arbitration (and probably free agency) than a strict WAR valuation would show.
That obviously doesn’t mean they should trade Lindor, but I think that Lindor’s skill set is much more likely to be appropriately valued or even overvalued in arbitration and in free agency. If Lindor comes up and becomes the starter, Ramirez would be a great pickup for many teams, and would potentially come pretty cheaply in terms of propsects/players given up for him.
I agree that he’s underrated. Baseball Prospectus ranked him 9th in the Indians top 10 under 25, behind the likes of Bradley Zimmer, who’s a nice prospect, but he’s the same age as Ramirez as an outfielder in A-ball.