FAN Projection Targets: Five Pitchers Traded This Offseason

Yesterday, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are five players for the reader’s consideration — all pitchers who were traded this offseason. Note: listed age is for 2015.

Player: Nathan Eovaldi, 25, RHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 199.2 IP, 6.40 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, 3.37 FIP at MLB
Notes: Recorded career-best strikeout- and walk-rate differential in 2014 while also posting fourth-highest average fastball velocity among qualified pitchers. Traded to Yankees in December for Martin Prado et al. Is candidate for fourth or fifth spot in New York rotation.

¡Submit Projection for Nathan Eovaldi!

Player: Shane Greene, 26, RHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 78.2 IP, 9.27 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 3.73 FIP at MLB
Notes: Produced above-average strikeout, walk, and ground-ball rates in 15 appearances (14 starts) during 2014 season — his first ever in the majors. Sent to Tigers from Yankees in December trade that also included Diamondbacks.

¡Submit Projection for Shane Greene!

Player: Jesse Hahn, 25, RHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 73.1 IP, 8.59 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 0.49 HR/9, 3.40 FIP at MLB
Notes: Made 14 appearances (12 starts) in his debut season in 2014, recording above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates. Traded in December to Oakland in same deal that sent Derek Norris to San Diego. Likely, it would appear, to earn rotation spot out of spring training.

¡Submit Projection for Jesse Hahn!

Player: Mat Latos, 27, RHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 102.1 IP, 6.51 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 3.65 FIP at MLB
Notes: Exhibited more contact-oriented approach than in past seasons, recording both lowest strikeout and walk rate in career — perhaps as a result of reduced velocity. Traded Cincinnati to Miami in mid-December for pair of Marlins prospects. Given adequate health (and absence of Jose Fernandez) is candidate to assume No. 1 role in Miami rotation.

¡Submit Projection for Mat Latos!

Player: Alfredo Simon, 34, RHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 196.1 IP, 5.82 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 1.01 HR/9, 4.33 FIP at MLB
Notes: Recorded career-high marks in innings as 33-year-old with Reds in 2014, producing ninth-highest average fastball velocity among qualifiers. Like Latos (above), was traded by Cincinnati for pair of prospects — in this case, to Detroit.

¡Submit Projection for Alfredo Simon!





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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