Five Real Facts Concerning Bumgarner’s Postseason Fastball
Jeff Sullivan wrote earlier today about the excellence of Madison Bumgarner’s relief performance last night in Game Seven of the World Series — and over the course of the playoffs, generally. What follows is a similar document to Sullivan’s, except designed for a person for whom reading and thinking are burdensome.
1. Bumgarner’s Fastball Velocity Was Higher in the Postseason
According to Brooks Baseball, Bumgarner recorded an average fastball velocity of 92.76 mph during the regular season. In October, he threw about 1 mph higher, on average — 93.66 mph, according to Brooks.
2. Bumgarner’s Fastball Whiff Rate Was Worse in the Postseason
Madison Bumgarner recorded about a 14% swinging-strike rate this season according both to Brooks Baseball and also the data here at FanGraphs. An excellent figure, that — roughly twice the league-average rate.
During the postseason — and despite the added velocity — his fastball whiff rate was only about 11%. Still above-average relative to the league, that, but less above average.
3. Bumgarner’s Fastball Whiff Rate Improved Over the Postseason
Or, it mostly did. By way of illustration, regard this artisanally crafted table:
Date | Opp | # | SwStrk | SwStrk% |
---|---|---|---|---|
1-Oct | PIT | 60 | 4 | 6.7% |
6-Oct | WAS | 51 | 5 | 9.8% |
11-Oct | STL | 58 | 5 | 8.6% |
16-Oct | STL | 56 | 8 | 14.3% |
21-Oct | KCA | 61 | 4 | 6.6% |
26-Oct | KCA | 52 | 8 | 15.4% |
29-Oct | KCA | 39 | 8 | 20.5% |
Total | — | 377 | 42 | 11.1% |
And/or this graph, which documents Bumgarner’s fastball swinging-strike rate by appearance and onto which I’ve pasted an image suggesting that its 100% organic:

4. There Wasn’t a Correlation Between Velocity and Whiff Rate
Bumgarner’s fastball swinging-strike rates weren’t higher in games during which he recorded a higher average fastball velocity. In fact, the opposite is the case, if at all: Bumgarner produced his highest fastball whiff rate on Wednesday, during which he also recorded his lowest average fastball velocity of October.
Regard:
Date | Opp | Velo | SwStrk% |
---|---|---|---|
1-Oct | PIT | 94.0 | 6.7% |
6-Oct | WAS | 93.8 | 9.8% |
11-Oct | STL | 93.5 | 8.6% |
16-Oct | STL | 94.0 | 14.3% |
21-Oct | KCA | 93.8 | 6.6% |
26-Oct | KCA | 93.3 | 15.4% |
29-Oct | KCA | 93.0 | 20.5% |
Total | — | 93.6 | 11.1% |
And this table, which features Bumgarner’s fastball velocity by game versus fastball swinging-strike rate by game:

5. The Royals Offense Was Very Good at Making Contact
Kansas City batters combined to produce the third-best swinging-strike rate among all the league’s 30 clubs this season, at 8.1% — this, relative to a league-average figure of about 9.5%.
What Bumgarner did, then, was produce a ca. 20% swinging-strike rate on his fastball — itself a pitch that sits at 6-7% by that measure — against a club which had already exhibited the ability to make contact at a considerably above-average rate.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Fact: it was painful to see all those high whiffs on high fast balls.