Five Real Facts Concerning Bumgarner’s Postseason Fastball

Jeff Sullivan wrote earlier today about the excellence of Madison Bumgarner’s relief performance last night in Game Seven of the World Series — and over the course of the playoffs, generally. What follows is a similar document to Sullivan’s, except designed for a person for whom reading and thinking are burdensome.

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1. Bumgarner’s Fastball Velocity Was Higher in the Postseason
According to Brooks Baseball, Bumgarner recorded an average fastball velocity of 92.76 mph during the regular season. In October, he threw about 1 mph higher, on average — 93.66 mph, according to Brooks.

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2. Bumgarner’s Fastball Whiff Rate Was Worse in the Postseason
Madison Bumgarner recorded about a 14% swinging-strike rate this season according both to Brooks Baseball and also the data here at FanGraphs. An excellent figure, that — roughly twice the league-average rate.

During the postseason — and despite the added velocity — his fastball whiff rate was only about 11%. Still above-average relative to the league, that, but less above average.

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3. Bumgarner’s Fastball Whiff Rate Improved Over the Postseason
Or, it mostly did. By way of illustration, regard this artisanally crafted table:

Date Opp # SwStrk SwStrk%
1-Oct PIT 60 4 6.7%
6-Oct WAS 51 5 9.8%
11-Oct STL 58 5 8.6%
16-Oct STL 56 8 14.3%
21-Oct KCA 61 4 6.6%
26-Oct KCA 52 8 15.4%
29-Oct KCA 39 8 20.5%
Total 377 42 11.1%

And/or this graph, which documents Bumgarner’s fastball swinging-strike rate by appearance and onto which I’ve pasted an image suggesting that its 100% organic:

Graph Graph Graph

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4. There Wasn’t a Correlation Between Velocity and Whiff Rate
Bumgarner’s fastball swinging-strike rates weren’t higher in games during which he recorded a higher average fastball velocity. In fact, the opposite is the case, if at all: Bumgarner produced his highest fastball whiff rate on Wednesday, during which he also recorded his lowest average fastball velocity of October.

Regard:

Date Opp Velo SwStrk%
1-Oct PIT 94.0 6.7%
6-Oct WAS 93.8 9.8%
11-Oct STL 93.5 8.6%
16-Oct STL 94.0 14.3%
21-Oct KCA 93.8 6.6%
26-Oct KCA 93.3 15.4%
29-Oct KCA 93.0 20.5%
Total 93.6 11.1%

And this table, which features Bumgarner’s fastball velocity by game versus fastball swinging-strike rate by game:

Graph 222

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5. The Royals Offense Was Very Good at Making Contact
Kansas City batters combined to produce the third-best swinging-strike rate among all the league’s 30 clubs this season, at 8.1% — this, relative to a league-average figure of about 9.5%.

What Bumgarner did, then, was produce a ca. 20% swinging-strike rate on his fastball — itself a pitch that sits at 6-7% by that measure — against a club which had already exhibited the ability to make contact at a considerably above-average rate.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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snack man
11 years ago

Fact: it was painful to see all those high whiffs on high fast balls.