In October, Trust Your Depth Guys Too
Leading 2-1 in the series, and 2-1 in game four, A.J. Hinch just summoned Justin Verlander from the bullpen to try and protect the lead and allow the Astros to finish the ALDS without having to go back to Houston for a winner-take-all finale. Given how good Chris Sale has looked for the Red Sox, and how dominant David Price was for Boston yesterday, it’s easy to see the appeal of putting your best arm on the mound and just riding him to victory.
But this decision just felt like an overreaction given the alternatives. Warming up next to Verlander was Will Harris. Will Harris isn’t a big name, but for the last few years, he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball.
| # | Name | IP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenley Jansen | 189.1 | 0.165 | 0.204 | 0.272 | 0.207 |
| 2 | Andrew Miller | 198.2 | 0.151 | 0.221 | 0.249 | 0.212 |
| 3 | Craig Kimbrel | 181.1 | 0.158 | 0.248 | 0.268 | 0.234 |
| 4 | Aroldis Chapman | 174.2 | 0.177 | 0.269 | 0.251 | 0.238 |
| 5 | Chris Devenski | 164.1 | 0.183 | 0.239 | 0.311 | 0.238 |
| 6 | Zach Britton | 170.0 | 0.207 | 0.269 | 0.267 | 0.239 |
| 7 | Wade Davis | 169.1 | 0.175 | 0.262 | 0.265 | 0.239 |
| 8 | Roberto Osuna | 207.2 | 0.196 | 0.242 | 0.327 | 0.244 |
| 9 | Will Harris | 180.1 | 0.198 | 0.251 | 0.309 | 0.246 |
| 10 | Pedro Strop | 175.2 | 0.177 | 0.273 | 0.288 | 0.249 |
Harris was his usual dominant self this year, allowing a .262 wOBA. He posted the lowest BB% and the highest K% of his career. He doesn’t have Verlander’s velocity, but his cutter/curveball combination has led to consistently dominant results.
But despite being warm, Hinch went with Verlander. I’m not going to pretend that Andrew Benintendi’s home run — hit just 90 mph, and a ball that Statcast gave just a 5% hit probability to — was the obvious outcome here, or that the decision was clearly a mistake because the outcome went badly.
But as much as it is refreshing to question whether managers are too aggressive in using their best pitchers this year, as opposed to watching Zach Britton sit in the bullpen as his team’s season ended a year ago, it feels like this was an example of the tide turning too far in the other direction. It’s great to have a guy like Verlander that you really believe in, but you can’t win a World Series with just a few pitchers. You have to trust your depth guys too.
If we’ve gotten to the point where we’re choosing to put a starter who has never pitched in relief in before a guy like Harris, a legitimately elite reliever, then I think the pendulum has swung too far the other direction. Especially when the Astros didn’t have to win Game 4. The worst case scenario for them in this game was that they head home with a fresh Verlander to take the mound, and Dallas Keuchel to bridge the gap between him and Ken Giles.
Now, they’re down 3-2 in this game, and might still head back to Houston for Game 5, only Keuchel will likely be the starter, and Verlander might be the guy pitching a few innings of relief instead. The Astros may have just unnecessarily reduced their worst-case outcome in Game 4 to an even worse position, because they didn’t trust a really good reliever.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I was really confused about this too. I didn’t like it so much when they brought Sale in, and I didn’t like bringing in Verlander in response. But the Astros have all kinds of good relievers! Were they not available?
Horrendous decision by Hinch.
Nobody wants to be the next Buck Showalter, so every manager this season would rather risk using all of their weapons rather than facing criticism. It’s the “win at all costs” mantra.
But winning the World Series takes 11 victories and possibly as many as 19/20 games. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. You can’t manage Game 4 of the LDS (especially when you’re not facing elimination) like it’s the last game of the season.
It eventually worked out, but could have backfired terribly for the Astros. There’s 25 guys on the roster for a reason, and throwing Verlander there was an unnecessary risk that Hinch didn’t need to take. Be smart instead of trying to be the smartest guy in the room.
You can’t shorten your roster to that extent, even with off days. Example: Even Miller and Chapman were ordinary by Game 7 last year.
Getting him up and warm so he can take over after an (at the time) expected rain delay…..ok, I kind of get that. Get Morton through the 5th and bring in Verlander on a clean inning to get 6 outs to hand the ball to Giles….sort of unnecessary, given the other arms in their pen. But bringing him in, in that situation, I didn’t, and still don’t, understand. He rebounded from the HR well enough, and it worked out fine for Houston, but I’m not convinced that the end result means he made the right decision in the moment. Felt like an overreaction.
I’m just not sure the decision on Harris versus Verlander is that big a thing either way. In a potential Game 5, Astros would have entire pen to pitch including Harris. I don’t think pitching in relief is that big a deal for a starter provided he had time to warm up. Verlander ended up pitching less than 9 innings in the ALDS; I’m not buying the argument that the Astros are just using a few pitchers or that they don’t trust guys.
Astros had the lead and they put in their best pitcher in a game that could end a playoff series. Only argument I see against this is that he may have not had enough rest which only is implied once in the article in the worst case scenario for if Verlander didn’t pitch in Game 4.
For me, Morton would have been gone after 4. The decision to give Morton one base runner in 5th is frustrating and to me seems a bigger deal than Verlander vs the pen.