Michael Brantley and the Value of a 20-20 Season

Earlier this afternoon, managing editor of FanGraphs Dave Cameron suggested that, given the opportunity to vote on this year’s American League MVP award, that he’d place Cleveland outfielder Michael Brantley second on his ballot. While there are likely those who would find the selection grounds for outrage, they are generally not the sort who would find their way to this internet weblog. Indeed, despite lacking substantial power, Brantley has produced — thanks to a combination of excellent contact skills, an above-average BABIP, and efficient baserunning — has produced the second-most runs offensively among all major-league batters.

Another thing Brantley has done this season — as of this past Friday, at least — is record a combination of at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Given the number of other variables that inform player value, adjudging a player’s performance merely by home runs and stolen bases is of limited utility. However, those two metrics also both (a) serve as decent proxies for power and speed (i.e. two useful baseball tools) and (b) actually produce runs on their own. Because of that, and due to Brantley’s recent admission to the 20-20 club, I wondered how other recent 20-20 players have fared in terms of wins.

To find the answer, I identified all the player seasons between 2004 and -13 in which a batter had recorded both 20 home runs and also 20 stolen bases.

Here are the top-10 player seasons by WAR from that group:

# Name Season PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
1 Mike Trout 2013 716 27 33 .323 .432 .557 177 8.1 70.5 3.3 10.5
2 Mike Trout 2012 639 30 49 .326 .399 .564 167 12.0 62.2 13.0 10.1
3 Alex Rodriguez 2007 708 54 24 .314 .422 .645 175 8.1 74.6 -0.5 9.6
4 Jacoby Ellsbury 2011 732 32 39 .321 .376 .552 150 2.5 44.8 18.0 9.1
5 Alex Rodriguez 2005 715 48 21 .321 .421 .610 174 -1.1 63.3 -0.2 8.8
6 David Wright 2007 711 30 34 .325 .416 .546 151 6.8 53.7 8.7 8.4
7 Matt Kemp 2011 689 39 40 .324 .399 .586 168 6.0 60.2 -2.7 8.4
8 Andrew McCutchen 2013 674 21 27 .317 .404 .508 156 5.1 47.3 9.3 8.3
9 Chase Utley 2009 687 31 23 .282 .397 .508 141 9.1 43.6 13.4 7.9
10 Grady Sizemore 2006 751 28 22 .290 .375 .533 132 8.4 39.7 15.2 7.8

And here are the bottom 10:

# Name Season PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
96 Chris Young 2007 624 32 27 .237 .295 .467 87 1.2 -9.4 -6.0 0.5
95 Corey Hart 2008 657 20 23 .268 .300 .459 95 4.3 0.0 -11.2 1.0
94 Matt Lawton 2004 680 20 23 .277 .366 .421 111 0.7 10.3 -23.1 1.0
93 Bobby Abreu 2008 684 20 22 .296 .371 .471 125 -1.1 20.3 -28.6 1.5
92 Alfonso Soriano 2005 682 36 30 .268 .309 .512 108 5.5 12.4 -13.6 2.2
91 Carlos Gonzalez 2012 579 22 20 .303 .371 .510 119 2.7 15.8 -12.6 2.3
90 Reggie Sanders 2004 487 22 21 .260 .315 .482 102 2.5 3.8 3.2 2.3
89 Bobby Abreu 2010 667 20 24 .255 .352 .435 119 0.6 15.7 -15.3 2.4
88 Ian Kinsler 2007 566 20 23 .263 .355 .441 108 7.2 12.9 -6.7 2.5
87 Jeff Francoeur 2011 656 20 22 .285 .329 .476 115 -3.5 8.3 -5.7 2.5

Here are the average and standard-deviation figures for each metric among the 96-player sample:

PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
Average 656 27 27 .285 .360 .502 127 4.6 26.1 1.7 5.0
St. Dev. 65 7 7 .025 .033 .048 21 3.1 17.8 11.1 2.1

Some notes and observations:

• Perhaps surprisingly given the limits of the two metrics, home-run and stolen-base totals actually well as a proxy for overall value. One notes that only four players in the 96-player sample recorded a season WAR total below 2.0 — i.e. the WAR figure an average player would produce.

• Five players (Alex Rodriguez, 2005; Alfonso Soriano, 2006; Bobby Abreu, 2008; Jeff Francoeur, 2011; and Shin-Soo Choo, 2013) produced a baserunning mark of fewer than zero runs relative to league average — this, despite having recorded 20-plus stolen bases. Soriano’s accomplishment is most notable: while none of the other players stole more than 22 bases, he stole 41 with Washington in 2006. He was also caught 17 times, however.

• Only three of the 96-player sample (Chris Young, 2007; Brandon Phillips, 2008; and Jimmy Rollins, 2009) recorded a total weighted offense figure of fewer than zero runs relative to league average.

• Despite the speed one would assume most of the players in this sample possess, the average defensive rating among the group is only slightly higher than zero (and the standard deviation is also quite large). It’s probably fair to say that 20-20 seasons don’t lend themselves particularly well to making comments about a player’s defensive abilities.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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KeepNotGraphs
10 years ago

Is this an actual article by Carson?