A.J. Puckett, RHP (Profile)

KATOH: 1.2 WAR
KATOH+ 1.0 WAR

Puckett his pitched decently since the Royals selected him in the second round last year. He’s pitched to a respectable 3.90 ERA at the High-A level this year, with average-ish strikeout and walk numbers. Puckett is an A-Baller whose numbers don’t jump off the page, so it’s easy to see why KATOH isn’t enthused. But it’ll surely buy in if he performs similarly at the higher levels.

To put some faces to Puckett’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Puckett’s 2017 performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

*****
Andre Davis, LHP (Profile)

KATOH: 0.4 WAR
KATOH+ 0.1 WAR

A 2015 8th round pick, Davis has pitched to a 4.83 ERA at Low-A this year. His peripherals have been decent — particularly his 23% strikeout rate. But as a 23-year-old in A-Ball, he has neither age nor proximity to the majors on his side. Davis is 6-foot-6 and throws hard, but has yet to perform much as a professional.